HEISMAN HOPEFULS
By mark rogers
August 16, 2008
We are officially 12 days away from the start of football season. The first games in high school and college are August 28.
So I think it would be a good time to talk about the Heisman hopefuls in the Division Formerly Known as 1.
I know every Heisman Trophy winner ... ever. You see me in public, come up to me and say a year and I GUARANTEE I can tell you who won the award that year. I'm a huge nerd, but feel I have an interesting perspective on the annual "NFL Jinx."
We all know the names - Florida's Tim Tebow, Georgia's (and Highland Park's own) Matt Stafford, Missouri's Chase Daniel, West Virginia's Pat White...and on and on and on.
But who really has a realistic shot at the Heisman?
Obviously I'm no fortune teller, but there are some facts that will weigh heavily for or against many of the national contenders.
First, the Heisman usually goes to an athlete in a big market. USC and Notre Dame have each received the most trophies - 7. USC is a huge market and Notre Dame is the only team with national TV rights.
That is bad news for Chase Daniel, Pat White, Clemson's Cullen Harper and Texas Tech's Graham Harrell. Now, I'm definitely not saying those guys can't win - most of them should be in the running for most of the year. The TREND is for the award to go to a big market.
The caveat to that is that some mid-market (and by mid-market I mean smaller than LA and New York) and non-BCS teams are able to produce players that become household names because of the national prominence of the program, i.e. Ohio State, BYU, Nebraska, Michigan, Wisconsin, Oklahoma, etc...
See Eric Crouch (Nebraska 2001), Rashaan Salaam (Colorado 1994), Andre Ware (Houston 1989) and Barry Sanders (Ok State 1988). These players were able to win in a smaller market or a non-BCS school because they had unbelievable careers and junior or senior seasons.
That could be the case this year for White, Harper or Harrell. If those guys put up huge numbers and their teams are in their respective conference championship discussions - they have a legitimate shot.
Another factor is having someone on your team that will take votes away from you. In 2002 Ken Dorsey and Willis McGahee were the Heisman favorites at the beginning and throughout most of the year. They both played for Miami, split the east coast votes and a little-known QB from USC, Carson Palmer took home the trophy. I think most of you know who that is now - but had you heard of him prior to the 2002 season?
This could be the case in 2008 for Georgia's Stafford and RB Knowshon Moreno, Texas Tech's Harrell and Michael Crabtree, Ohio State's Todd Boeckman and Beanie Wells, Oklahoma's Sam Bradford and rising star DeMarco Murray (if you don't know that name, memorize it and enjoy).
Those are eight really strong candidates that could take votes away from their teammates thus letting a player from another team take the most votes. Now if one of those teammates gets injured, it could be different - but an injury of that magnitude might take a team out of contention and take the non-injured candidate out of the lime light anyway.
The other thing I like to factor in is if I think the player is going to be a good/great pro, they won't win. The last great - I mean GREAT - NFL Heisman Trophy winner was Barry Sanders and he won 20 years ago. You could make arguments for Palmer, Eddie George and Charles Woodson (since 1988) but I wouldn't put them in the "great" category. And the jury is still out on Reggie Bush and Matt Leinart.
All that being said...who are my Heisman favorites based on the above factors?
I've narrowed it down to three (in no particular order): Florida's Tim Tebow (last year's winner), USC's Mark Sanchez (who I think will be back from injury sooner than expected) and Notre Dame's Jimmy Clausen.
Why?
Tebow - already a household name after 2007's record-setting performace. He's the only sophomore to ever win the award, will get a ton of east coast votes and doesn't really have anyone on the team that could take votes away from him. Quick side note - I thought Darren McFadden should have EASILY won the Heisman last year after his great career and performance in the upset of #1 LSU, but Tebow won because he picked up all the east coast votes and McFadden was stuck in the middle of the country...it does make a difference.
Sanchez - HUGE market. USC is a national power and will be in BCS contention all year. Sanchez also has a lot of "vote splitters" out there who will be good for him. If he puts up better than average numbers and USC is ranked #1 all year headed into the title game when the votes are final, he's got a great shot.
Clausen - Another HUGE market. And believe it or not, Notre Dame hasn't ended the year on consecutive wins in many, many years - they did that last year and have some momentum headed into 2008. They will win 10 or 11 games this year and if they knock off some big teams, say USC maybe? Clausen has a great shot.
That's who've I've narrowed it down to, but I do have some players that I think will be in the discussion if they put up big numbers and their teams win some big games.
Those players are Texas QB Colt McCoy, Florida State QB Drew Weatherford and Pittsburgh RB LeSean McCoy (if you haven't heard of this sophomore, trust me, watch some Pittsburgh games this year - he is UNBELIEVEABLE). I think if Texas can beat OU in Dallas and take care of Arkansas in Austin, Colt will be invited to the Downtown Athletic Club. And look out for Weatherford, a senior on a rising team on the east coast - he's a sleeper that many will rule out early.
Also included in the "could be in the discussion if their teams do well and they have outstanding numbers" are Harper, White and Daniels.
So there it is - I could also write a novel on surprise teams in 2008, but here is a short list to save your eyes from staring at the computer any longer:
Pittsburgh, Florida State, North Carolina, Notre Dame.
Thoughts on the Heisman discussion?
Big Country "Heisman" post coming soon...
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