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NFL QB BREAKDOWN

By mark rogers
September 19, 2008

Here are some interesting numbers for you to digest:

Keep in mind, this is if you look at the top 32 QBs (according to QB rating) in the NFL tonight and substitute Tom Brady for Matt Cassell...

21.9% or 7 are from premier BCS programs: Aaron Rodgers (Cal), Peyton Manning (UT), Tom Brady (Michigan), Carson Palmer (USC), Jason Campbell (Auburn), Jamarcus Russell (LSU) and Brian Griese (Michigan).

37.5% or 12 are from BCS schools that aren't in the national hunt every year: Philip Rivers (NC State), Jay Cutler (Vandy), Donovan McNabb (Syracuse), Trent Edwards (Stanford), Drew Brees (Purdue), Eli Manning (Ole Miss), Kyle Orton (Purdue), Matt Schaub (Virginia), Marc Bulger (WVU), Matt Ryan (BC), Derek Anderson (Oregon St) and Matt Hasselbeck (BC).

40.6% or 13 are from NON-BCS SCHOOLS: Ben Roethlisberger (Miami OH), Kurt Warner (Northern Iowa), Tony Romo (East. Illinois), Brett Favre (Southern Miss), JT O'Sullivan (UC-Davis), Jon Kitna (Central Washington), Chad Pennington (Marshall), Jake Delhomme (Lou-Lafeyette), Jeff Garcia (San Jose St), David Garrard (East Carolina), Tavaris Jackson (Alabama St), Joe Flacco (Delaware) and Tyler Thigpen (Coastal Carolina).

I think that's pretty amazing. The majority of NFL starting QBs are from schools that never even sniff the national title hunt or the national spotlight. You could make a case for East Carolina this year, but not when Garrard was there. Some of those aren't even Division 1 schools.

And it's not like the "premier BCS" group is dominating the league...all three groups are averaging right around 17 when you average all their rankings together after week 2. Big Ben and Kurt Warner are #1 and #2 right now...Carson Palmer (2002 Heisman Trophy Winner) is last.

My developing theory is that the QBs at the premier schools are never tested. They have great offensive lines and never have to deal with pressure. They have the best receivers who catch everything that's thrown to them. They have the best coaching. They have the biggest media spotlight. They have great running backs who make the inferior defenses they play respect the run which opens up the passing lanes...etc.

The exact opposite is true of the non-BCS QBs. Their offensive lines are suspect which causes them to run for their lives. They have to make more "NFL-type" throws or their less than superior receivers won't make the catches. They may not have a great running game so they're dealing with defenses keying on the pass every week...etc.

That's just my developing theory...but I think it's a pretty good one.

Now, that's not to say the Tim Tebow or Matt Stafford aren't tested coming out of the SEC...but according to the numbers above, they're the minority.

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