DEFENDING TEXAS

By mark rogers
October 31, 2008

I was caught in the middle of a nasty argument at work today about the Texas/Texas Tech game.

I've lost a lot of credibility on this matter since I guaranteed Tech would lose to Kansas...the first time I've been wrong all year (sarcasm).

Here is my response to the Colt McCoy and Texas naysayers:

 

Harrell: 6-3, 205 lbs

256-360 (71.1%), 3,147 yds

Yds per attempt = 8.74

28 TD - 5 INT

6 TD rushing

QB rating = 167.43

----------------------------- 

McCoy: 6-3, 210 lbs

198-242 (81.1%), 2,285 yds

Yds per attempt = 9.44

21 TD - 4 INT

7 TD rushing

QB rating = 186.46

 

If Texas had thrown it 360 times, based on his YPA Colt would have 3,399 yds - 250 more yards than Harrell - but Texas has a balanced team aka a running game so they don't need to (UT has run the ball 120 more times than Tech).

Colt's bigger, faster, stronger, more accurate, more efficient and just plain better than Graham Harrell.

If Texas can pressure Harrell, make him get rid of the ball before he wants to and put him on the turf (somewhere he's not used to being - sacked only three times) then Texas will be able to get key stops in key moments of the game and win by simply outscoring Tech.

If Tech's defense can keep the big play receivers of Texas in front of them and force third-and-longs (which they have been great at stopping this year), Tech has a good chance to win.

Tech will have home field advantage - which is actually huge in college football. Texas will have the advantage of better athletes and players who have been here before and know how to come-from-behind.

Tech has the biggest offensive line in college football. Texas' defense line is probably the most athletic and most productive in college football (Orakpo 2nd in nation in sacks).

That will be the key matchup tomorrow night. If Texas can get pressure, much like they did a few years ago against Cody Hodges (the former Hereford Whiteface), and put Harrell on his back or maybe break his throwing shoulder, Texas will win. If Tech's mammoth OL can keep Harrell safe for the 2.1 seconds he needs to deliver the ball, Tech will win.

Also, the TT receivers have gone through some dropped passes/fumbling problems this year. If that shows up, it's bad news for the Red Raiders.

That's a lot of 'ifs'. My prediction? Tech will have its share of big plays early, get the crowd into it and jump out to a lead. Texas will then begin to mix-up its coverages and blitzes, get more and more pressure on Harrell and come up with some explosive plays on offensive of its own. Texas 42, Tech 35.

One other thing to remember - this is the biggest game in the history of the Texas Tech football program. This isn't the biggest game Texas will play this year. Tech will be overhyped and therefore be forced into making dumb decisions and getting penalized at opportune times for UT - keeping drives alive, gaining key yards, etc...

Comments

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George on November 2, 2008 10:16 AM

How does it feel Rogers? That was a very detailed...very inaccurate analysis. Congratulations!

Love,
George
XOXO

George on November 2, 2008 10:18 AM

Oh, and by the way Rogers....keep predicting Tech to lose. It seems to be good luck for us!

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