« October 2008

December 2008 »

Archive : November 2008

November 30, 2008

LOOKS LIKE IT'S GOING TO BE OKLAHOMA

What a weekend of college football! All three Big 12 South teams in the running for the division title won, and it's looking like OU gave an impressive enough performance to keep the pollsters on their side.

I believe that when the BCS standings come out later today, OU will be ranked higher than Texas in the rankings and will therefore play Missouri in the Big 12 Championship next Saturday.

But there's still so much that can happen.

Missouri might just beat OU. Remember a few years ago when OU was "the best college football team EVER" and was undefeated going into the conference title game against an undermatched and underdog Kansas State team?

Remember what happened?

Kansas State won. Anything is possible. Of course, OU went on to still play in the national championship game against LSU, which they lost.

If Missouri beats Oklahoma, the Tigers would be the Big 12 champs and because they've lost a handful of games, would play in the Fiesta Bowl probably against Utah. In that scenario, OU would then have two losses and fall out of the BCS Title game race. What happens then?

You could have Texas vault back into the #2 spot and play the SEC champ for it all. Could happen...

But I don't think it will.

My money is for OU to whip Missouri and play Florida in the title game and for Texas to play in the Fiesta Bowl.

I was thinking yesterday about all this drama and all the different possibilities. You know if USC had defeated Oregon State earlier in the year and if Penn State doesn't lose on a last second field goal to Iowa, we'd have USC #1, Penn State #2 and Alabama #3 and the Big 12 South debate would only be about who would play in the conference championship and get to play in the Fiesta Bowl...nothing more.

So a big thanks to the Trojans and Nittany Lions for making this season so interesting.

We had some great games over the weekend, too.

Georgia Tech coming from way behind to beat Georgia on the road, Arkansas beating LSU, Pittsburgh hanging on to beat WVU, Nebraksa's 57 FG to beat Colorado, Virginia Tech needing a late INT to beat Virginia and that Kansas/Missouri game was one for the ages.

That's all beside the point.

In summary, it looks like OU will play in the Big 12 Championship and we'll have one more great weekend of college football before the BCS shakes down.

I need to give my thoughts on why I think a playoff would be terrible for college football...I hope it never happens.



November 28, 2008

TRUE COLORS REVEALED IN DEFEAT

Texas, Oklahoma and Texas Tech...that's the debate. It will dominate the discussion surrounding the end of the college football season and the "flawed" BCS system. (I don't think it's all that flawed, but that's another post.)

Assuming that OU beats OSU and Tech beats Baylor, all the teams will have 1-loss. So who should represent the Big 12 South in the Conference Championship game?

You can look at the big wins by each team and/or strength of schedule to determine the tie-breaker. But to me it really just comes down to one thing: how you lose.

Each of those teams has big wins. Texas beat #1 OU, Missouri and Oklahoma State. Tech beat #2 Texas, Oklahoma State and Kansas. Oklahoma beat Kansas,  #2 Texas Tech and TCU.

Great. Every good team every year has big wins or blowout victories. So what.

But not every team loses impressively. To me that's what defines a team. It's what defines character.

Everybody is a good person when things are going good. It's how they act when things are bad, when they're backed into a corner that displays what type of person they are.

For instance, USC hasn't lost a game by more than a touchdown in six years. When they lose, they barely lose. You have to play 60 full minutes to beat them because they'll never quit. They'll never lay down and will fight you to the final play. And you could argue that USC is the best team in the country over the last six years...Pac-10 titles every year, two national championships, played for another and have three Heisman trophy winners.

All that being said, let's take a look at the teams in the debate when they lost and assess who is the better team. And we can throw out the wins against each of the other three teams. That is an endless cycle that will only lead back to square one. Throw those wins out the window.

Texas Tech was blown out on the road by Oklahoma. They're done. Stick a fork in 'em. Out of the equation. They gave up. That game was over in the first quarter.

Oklahoma was dominated on a neutral field by Texas. Don't think they were dominated? Look at the time of possession. Texas - 37. OU - 22. The Sooners were dominated on both lines, only rushed for 48 yards and were practically out of it halfway through the fourth quarter.

Texas lost on the road to Texas Tech on the last play of the game after coming from behind to take the lead. It was also the fourth game in one of the toughest four game stretches in recent college football history. It took 60 minutes for Tech to beat Texas.

So who has the best loss? I don't think there's really any debate. It's Texas.

And that's who should represent the Big 12 South in the Conference Championship. No matter what happens the rest of the way, Texas is the best team in the conference.

So all we have to do now is wait, let Saturday play out and see what the pollsters and computers decide to do with the Big 12 South.

At the very least, it sure is interesting. And that's really all we can ask for, right? I can't remember a football season with this much drama in one conference let alone one division.

It's better than any movie or TV show...you can't make this stuff up.

Texas, Oklahoma or Texas Tech? If you agree that people and teams are at their best when the chips are against them, then it's no debate. The Texas Longhorns are the class of the Big 12 South.

November 26, 2008

BAD NEWS FOR BIG 12 HEISMAN HOPEFULS

As a self-proclaimed Heisman Trophy expert, I have a bad feeling for the four Heisman Trophy hopefuls out of the Big 12.

Graham Harrell, Michael Crabtree, Sam Bradford and Colt McCoy have all had fantastic years and received national exposure, but they might end up canceling each other out. Let's look at the nominees.

Crabtree (the Texas Tech sophomore WR) trails only seven receivers across the country in receiving yards. He's second in the nation with 18 TD catches, tied for sixth in receptions and plays for a team that's been seen on national TV several times this year.

Bradford (OU's sophomore QB) is third in the nation in passing yards with 3,710, second in passer rating, second in yards per attempt, first in TD passes with 42 and has only thrown six interceptions. He, too, has played on a national stage this year and is a well known name.

Colt McCoy (Texas' junior QB) is eighth in completions, first in completion percentage at just over 77%, 12th in passing yards, has thrown 30 TDs against just 7 picks and is fourth in passer rating. He's played on a national scale the last three seasons, is a household name after his performance in big games this year and gets a ton of coverage from ESPN.

Graham Harrell (Tech's senior QB) is first in passing yards, first in completions, third in completion percentage, third in TD passes, only thrown six interceptions and also receives national coverage and people know him.

You could make a case for any one of those players to be a legitimate Heisman Trophy contender.

There's just one problem.

They all play in the same conference and in the same region.

Historically (and as unfair as it may be) the Heisman Trophy voting has a lot to do with TV market size, publicity and seclusion.

And I mean seclusion in the sense that the candidate is in a region or area or coast all by himself.

Harrell, Crabtree, Bradford and McCoy may have all picked the wrong season to be playing so well.

They could very well split all the Big 12, midwest votes and allow another candidate from a big market to take home the most coveted trophy in college football.

Look at Tim Tebow (my pick before the season). He's fifth in passer rating, thrown 22 TDs against just two picks (a better ratio than McCoy, Harrell and Bradford) and is completing nearly 66% of his passes on a team ranked second in the AP that will have a chance to be #1 going into the bowls if they can beat Alabama in the SEC Championship.

And there's really no other true contenders on the entire East Coast or in the SEC.

You could make an argument for some other guys, but they may be on non-contending teams.

While true that the Big 12 contenders are household names, not all of the Heisman voters follow the games and performances across the nation. It's easier nowadays with ESPN GamePlan and all the different channels that games are on. And it probably wouldn't matter if there were just two Big 12 contenders...but having four is just too many.

I hope I'm wrong, but I don't think any of the Big 12 contenders has a shot to win. There's just too many good players in too close a zone.

You may read and see on TV that one of those (or two or three of those) Big 12 guys is the frontrunner...but when the voting shakes down, it'll go to the player on a contending team that doesn't have any competition (especially not four athletes that deserve to win) in his region.

Tim Tebow.

TECH FINALLY FEELS THE PAIN

...And I mean that as a compliment.

After the Oklahoma game...actually during the second quarter of the Oklahoma game...as Texas Tech fans realized what was slipping through their fingers, a new type of pain they've never felt crept into their souls.

It's the feeling of complete and utter loss, of everything you've hoped for being swept off the board...the feeling you get only when the college football team you root for, invest in, are passionate about, loses a truly big game.

It's a similar feeling across the sports world in every sport...but it hurts a little more on the college football continent.

Texas Tech has never before felt that pain.

Oklahoma has. Most recently when they lost the national title game...no, got obliterated in the national title game...by USC.

Texas has. Most recently when they lost to Oklahoma in 2004. The Longhorns only loss of the season which cost them a shot at the conference and national title.

USC has. Most recently when they lost to Oregon State on a Thursday night which will probably be their only loss of the year and cost them a shot at the crown.

I could go on and on and on giving examples of big time programs losing big time games which mean everything.

Texas Tech has averaged four losses since 2002. When you lose a game early or late in the season which is part of two or three other losses, it doesn't hurt as bad.

Yeah, it'd be nice to upset OU or OSU or UT, but lately if Tech were to lose to those teams, it's really no big deal.

Tech can say goodbye to the Trivial Loss. The Trivial Loss comes with little or no real pain. Sure, there's disappointment but not the kind of pain that makes you want to throw up. The Trivial Loss is experienced week in and week out by the lower class teams in the FBS. Baylor, Vanderbilt, Duke, Virginia, Washington State, Rutgers, Indiana and Southern Miss go through it many times every year.

Welcome to the big show Texas Tech.

My brother-in-law lives in Austin and bleeds burnt orange. When Texas loses a truly big game, he crawls under his bed and won't eat, drink or talk to anyone for weeks.

He has a friend who went to Tech who would always make fun of him and call him a baby.

That friend texted my brother-in-law on Saturday with these simple words, "Now I know how you feel."

As simple as that.

National title expectations come with horrific costs of losing.

And now Tech is a part of the club.

Now it's not to say that Tech still doesn't have an outside shot of winning the conference and even playing for it all...but at this point they're out of the driver's seat and need some help from OSU and A&M.

That fact cuts deep and will definitely leave a mark...and I mean that as a compliment.

November 21, 2008

OKLAHOMA/TEXAS TECH PREVIEW

I picked Kansas to beat Tech.

I picked Texas to beat Tech.

I picked Oklahoma State to beat Tech.

And I will pick Oklahoma to beat Tech.

C'mon Tech fans...you should want me to pick Oklahoma...look at my record in those games. Me picking Tech would be bad for the Raiders.

Let's take a look at the matchup...

Tech is 10-0. Leading the nation in passing yards per game while averaging nearly 137 yards rushing per game.

Only three teams in the Big 12 have allowed fewer points than Tech - Texas, Oklahoma State and Missouri.

Tech ranks third in the Big 12 in rushing defense, second in pass defense and second in pass defense efficiency.

The last three games, Tech has defeated the #23, #1 and #9 ranked teams in succession. Impressive.

Here's the biggy, though:

Texas Tech is leading the conference in total defense and has given up the fewest first downs of any team in the Big 12. I think those stats speak for themselves.

Oklahoma started the year with five easy wins before its loss to Texas in Dallas. Since that loss OU has won four straight.

Let's take a closer look at those games:

After rushing for fewer than 50 yards against TCU and Texas, Oklahoma's 1-2 punch of Chris Brown and Demarco Murray have combined for 807 yards on 108 carries and 12 TDs the last four games.

That's an average of 7.47 yards per carry and three scores a game (and it's been exactly three TDs in each of the last four games). Murray and Brown have both gone over 100 yards in two of those games.

Needless to say...the running game has turned around and is no longer a weakness.

Oklahoma is also averaging 57.75 points per game and has a turnover ratio of +13 in those four contests (they've turned it over twice while forcing 15).

The only problem there is that OU has allowed 30.5 points per game in that stretch, and those points haven't all been in trash time. OU's defense gives up points.

One more bit of info: in the last three weeks, Tech is 3-0 against Top 25 teams and 2-0 against Top 10 teams the last two weeks. OU is 2-1 against Top 25 teams and 0-1 against Top 10 teams this year.

At some point you'd think the Tech run will come to an end. They've played three tough games in a row against solid, ranked teams.

OU hasn't played a ranked opponent since they played Kansas the week after the Texas loss.

They should be refreshed and ready to roll while Tech is beat up and emotionally drained from the last month of one of the toughest schedule stretches ever.

Throw all the stats out the window and I'll give OU the edge based on that fact and the fact that it's in Norman.

I guess I could have just written that instead of boring you with all those numbers.

OU - 52  Tech - 49

 

No defense and a scoring buffet...I can't wait for 7 PM tomorrow night!!!!!


November 18, 2008

BREAKING DOWN COWBOYS WIN

At first glance the 14-10 victory over the Redskins on Sunday night wasn't that impressive. I think, though, with a more in-depth look we (Cowboy fans) can take it for what it really was...a big, heaping dose of hope.

Tony Romo's return to the lineup had an impact...but that impact wasn't felt until the end of the first half. I guess it took four terrible possessions to finally get the offense clicking.

I'm glad it only took that long. It could have been much worse.

And I'm not even ready to say that Romo's return had the biggest impact on the game. To me? The defense was even better and more instrumental in the victory...namely Terrence Newman.

The first four possessions of the game for the Dallas offense ended with two picks and two three-and-outs. The defense wasn't great initially either, allowing a TD on the Redskins' first drive. But they forced three straight punts and held Washington to a FG at the end of the first half after the special teams once again came through with terrible coverage.

We might look back on this game as the turning point of the season (however, we may not do that at all if we fail to make the playoffs). So what was the turning point in the game?

Romo's shovel pass on third down?

Terrence Newman's INT?

Martellus Bennett's TD catch?

I say no to all three of those things. I say the turning point will be the Washington punt in the second quarter that was downed on the 1-inch line being called a touchback by the official...bless his soul.

If that ball is downed on the goal line, I say Dallas doesn't drive 99+ yards in the final 4:41 of the half and Washington would have taken a 7-0 lead to the half...maybe even a 10-0 or 14-0 lead.

Instead, we get the ball at the 20, drive 80 yards in seven plays and tie the game.

There's your turning point.

The third quarter was all about the defense. Newman picked off Campbell on third down after the Redskins had converted three 3rd downs on the drive. On that same drive, Keith Davis, Newman and Bradie James all had huge, adrenaline-pumping, game-changing hits.

The Dallas' offense goes three and out.

The next possession for Washington saw the first two plays go 20+ yards to the Cowboy 17 yard line. A score there makes it 10-7 or 14-7. Instead, Jay Ratliff sacks Campbell for an eight yard loss forcing a long FG attempt which former Cowboy kicker Shaun Suisham missed.

The Dallas' offense goes three and out. Not helping out much guys.

The D forces another Washington punt leading us to the fourth quarter.

And what a quarter it was...Dallas held the ball for 11:04 to the Redskins 3:56.

We ran 21 plays counting the kneel downs (16 to Marion Barber). Washington ran eight.

Barber gained 83 yards. Washington gained 27.

Rarely do you see such a dominating performance by a running back in an NFL football game. Barber was unbelievable and could be considered the most valuable back in the league right now.

The offensive line was pretty dominant, too, to say the least. The return of Kyle Kosier certainly seemed to give a spark.

Our OL didn't allow a sack. Washington's allowed three.

We rushed for 117 yards. Our defense held them to under 100.

Our key player (Barber) totalled 153 yards. Washington's key player (Santana Moss - especially against the Cowboys lately) was held to just five catches for 29 yards.

I mentioned in an earlier post that the Cowboys needed a spark and that Romo, Newman and Kosier would have to give it to them.

I'd say they certainly did. Romo's presence opened the running game. Kosier's presence protected the "Pinky" and helped the running game. Newman shut down Moss, had a pick and a PBU on a critical fourth down late in the game.

This game could be the turning point...I hope it is.

Or it could be a false hope that only leads to a terrible ending to a disappointing season.

If Dallas can play like they did in the second half against the Redskins for the rest of the year, I think the former is a more likely scenario.

A much-needed win for Dallas...next stop? Mike Singletary and the 49ers.

 

  • mark rogers
  • November 18, 2008 4:44 PM

November 15, 2008

CLOSER LOOK AT BAYLOR/TEXAS A&M

Unless you were there you didn't see it since it wasn't televised, but here's a look at the Baylor performance against A&M. This goes along with my previous post about how a Baylor/Texas Tech upset is quietly brewing.

Keep in mind...I'm not saying Baylor is a great team. I'm just saying they have the potential and talent to upset a good team.

Against A&M Baylor rushed for 269 yards and held the Aggies to just 64.

They held A&M to only two out of nine third down conversions.

They did not turn the ball over and forced five. Baylor has not turned the ball over very much this year and aren't penalized all that much - a sign of good coaching.

Freshman QB Robert Griffin threw for 241 and two scores. He rushed for 56 more.

Keep all these facts in mind when you read the post earlier today "BAYLOR DANGER...LOOK OUT TECH."

I'm not predicting Baylor will beat Tech...I'm just saying look out for it. Crazier things have happened.

  • mark rogers
  • November 15, 2008 7:48 PM

BAYLOR DANGER...LOOK OUT TECH

If Texas Tech beats OU next week, they'll play for the Big 12 Championship, win that game and play in the BCS Title Game. Simple as that. Lock it up. Put it on the board.

That's what the Red Raiders have been hearing every time they turn on the TV, pick up the paper or fire up their computers.

And trust me, those college athletes definitely watch ESPN and FSN and hear the experts saying this over and over and over.

There's just one problem with all that: no one is saying anything about Tech having to play Baylor in Lubbock to close the season.

Upsets happen for two reasons: injuries to the favored team and complacency.

Wouldn't it be disastrous for Tech fans if they beat OU in Norman then lose to Baylor in Lubbock...and crazier things have happened.

41-point underdog Stanford beat #1 USC in LA. Oregon State beat #1 USC. Pittsburgh beat #2 West Virginia. Ole Miss beat #4 Florida in Gainesville. 1-AA Appalachian State beat Michigan in the Big House.

...and that was all in just the last two seasons...

I would bet that the Tech players aren't even thinking about Baylor. They're thinking about OU and the Big 12 Championship.

That's a dangerous mind set.

Let's take a look at what Baylor's done this year:

They're 3-7 but three of the losses have been by two scores or less, two were by three points. Plus they've played Oklahoma, Texas, Oklahoma State, Missouri, Wake Forest and Connecticut. That's a tough schedule.

Baylor QB Robert Griffin is a star in the making. He'll go to the Olympics in the 400m Hurdles one of these days so you know he's fast, and he's got an arm...and he's a true freshman.

The Bears also have athletes on their roster, another factor in upsetting a ranked team. As we've seen in the SEC for the last several years, if you have athletes on your roster, anything can happen.

Griffin was inserted into the season opener against Wake Forest, but his breakout game came against lowly Northwestern State in the second game. He threw for 294 yards and three TDs. He also ran for 42 yards and another score.

The next week Baylor beat Washington State 45-17.

Against Connecticut (a team still in contention to win the Big East) Baylor had more first downs, total yards and time of possession than the Huskies. The Bears lost by three, had zero turnovers and led the game in the fourth. Griffin threw for three scores and ran for another. The game was at UConn.

Baylor was smeared by #1 OU, but Griffin rushed for more than 100 yards and didn't turn the ball over.

The Bears beat Iowa State by gaining more first downs, winning the time of possession battle and not turning the ball over (seeing a pattern there?). Griffin completed 88% of his passes and threw two touchdowns.

The bright spots in a big loss to Oklahoma State were: Griffin didn't throw a pick and Baylor held OSU to 4-12 on third down...something Baylor has been good at this year.

In a close loss to Nebraska, Baylor racked up 350 total yards and didn't turn the ball over. They led late in the third and Griffin rushed for 121 yards and a TD.

Maybe their most impressive loss was against Missouri. Down 21-7 in the third, Baylor came back and tied the game with 2:30 left. Griffin threw for 283 yards and 2 TDs. He ran for 33 and another score. Baylor was 4-4 on fourth down and won the time of possession battle.

And last week in their loss at Texas, Griffin rushed for more than 100 yards and a score and Baylor held Texas to 8-16 on third down.

Those aren't jaw dropping stats, but I bet they made you raise your eyebrows in surprise.

And I'm not saying that Baylor is good enough to beat Tech or that they're better than Tech...obviously.

All I'm saying is that if Tech forgets about Baylor and sees them as just a 3-7 team win one conference win...the Red Raiders will be in for a surprise.

A lesser opponent at home...I can see it now: Tech thinks they can just show up, Baylor hangs around late and wins in OT or at the last second 38-35...that would be crazy, but like I said before - crazier things have happened.

I repeat, that's not my prediction for the game. I'm just pointing out a possible major upset that is brewing. All the pieces are coming together for something like that to happen.

However, If the Tech coaching staff does a good job of building Baylor up and not looking ahead (because who knows what's going on in the locker room), then Tech will smear Baylor, and the game will be over in the first quarter. That's what should happen on paper.

But that's also why they play the games. It's why I love college football.

It may not even matter if OU beats Tech next week...just a thought.


TRIVIA QUESTIONS ANSWERED

Congrats to Larry Hickerson who got the trivia question correct.

Plano is also tied for the most state championships in the state with seven. Can you name the other two teams?

Just comment on this post if you think you're smart.

Mr. Hickerson commented on the post with two teams:
Brownwood and Southlake Carroll.

And that is correct. Too bad there wasn't a monetary prize or something. Mr. Hickerson just gets to feel proud...it's all I can offer.

  • mark rogers
  • November 15, 2008 10:15 AM

November 14, 2008

MORE TECHNICAL DIFFICULTIES AND AN UPDATE

We're having computer issues again...may not be a webcast tonight. Bummer. It was the last one.

Also, Jim Ned came from behind and beat Early so they'll play Clyde either Friday or Saturday at Shotwell Stadium.

Jim Ned was behind 21-7 in the third. I can't wait to hear how that one ended...

  • mark rogers
  • November 14, 2008 10:42 PM

WOW...WHAT HAPPENED TO ABILENE HIGH?

Abilene High is going to lose in the first round of the playoffs for the first time since the early part of the decade.

After going 10-0 what could have happened to a team that seemed to roll effortlessly through the season?

A number of things.

Most importantly I think it comes down to the fact Abilene High wasn't ever really tested during the regular season.

Almost as important I'd say it has a lot to do with the heart-beat of the team blowing his knee out. Chris Williams is such a big part of that team both physically and mentally. To have him out is a huge, huge factor.

The other thing is this: it was Mansfield's night.

That's what is so great and crazy about high school football playoffs. Any team can win on any given night.

Mansfield had the perfect game plan, the perfect strategy and the perfect environment. The executed and made big plays when they had to and a team that has never won a playoff game just beat a team that was a win away from 600 in the history of the program.

Abilene High did a lot of things they usually don't do. They seemed a little "off" which is totally expected to happen at some point of the year. You just hope it's not the first playoff game.

I feel for the coaches and players tonight. That's a tough pill to swallow when you're supposed to go to at least the semi-finals and beat Southlake again on your way.

The higher the expectations, the more it hurts tonight and in the morning. That is not a fun feeling the Eagles will feel when they wake up tomorrow...if any of them can get any sleep at all.

We'll be talking about this one for several weeks...

  • mark rogers
  • November 14, 2008 9:59 PM

PLAYOFF MEMORIES

The Texas High School Football Playoffs are a unique and once-in-a-lifetime type of experience (although many athletes will experience it more than once).

High school football players in the playoffs stop caring about the length of practice. Those bumps and bruises that have been nagging for several weeks don't nag so much anymore. Coaches seem to be nicer and more enjoyable to be around. You feel like a superstar walking the halls and driving around town.

It's such a different experience because you don't know if Monday's practice will be the last Monday practice of the year - and if you're a senior - the last high school Monday practice of your life.

Because of that you don't care how long it goes because you never want it to end. And these guys don't realize the magnitude of the moment right now. They will in ten years.

Those guys that won the State Championship for Wylie in 2004 are beginning to realize just how special their run was. I sacrificed a ton and would have given tenfold more to have been able to go through something like that. To win a state championship.

Today more kids have the chance to win a championship than ever before since every division crowns 2 champs, but it doesn't water it down any for those guys that are going through it or for their memories and bonds with their teammates that will be broken by death alone...nothing more.

I always get a little nostalgic this time of year. My team went three rounds deep and was destined for a rematch with Duncanville in the state-semis. Duncanville had beat us in the second week of the regular season and we were ready for revenge.

What we weren't ready for was a Jersey Village team that none of us had ever heard of. Their running back was a freshman named Selvin Young - he's now a running back for the Denver Broncos.

Jersey Village had us figured out. We didn't adjust. And just like that. The season was over. Gone with the sound of the Texas Stadium horn, the roar of the opposing sideline and the deep and utter silence of our own.

The young men playing out there tonight will remember tonight and the rest of these games forever. They'll remember their specific opponent, the guy they battled all night. They'll remember the date. The place. The sounds and the smells. They'll talk about it with their teammates for years to come. Every time they get together.

And the only ones that will have no regrets, that won't stare off into silence with a half-smile and squinted eyes will be the ones who were lucky enough, good enough and tough enough to win the whole thing. To realize every high school football players' dream.

To end the season...with a win.

  • mark rogers
  • November 14, 2008 9:25 PM

COLLEGE GAMES TOMORROW

At first glance, it's not a great day of college football tomorrow...but that's at first glance. It should be a great day!

Navy vs. Notre Dame: Rumors have been spreading about Charlie Weis's job security after being shutout against BC last week. Navy beat Notre Dame last year for the first time since Roger Staubach was the QB. The last time Navy beat Notre Dame two straight years? Gas was $0.29 a gallon. Notre Dame, with Weis calling the plays, will come out throwing and throwing some more and will win the game.

Notre Dame - 28   Navy 13

 

Texas @ Kansas: This is a very tricky game for Texas. Coming off a lackluster win against Baylor last week, the Longhorns will really have to come out swinging. They need to jump out to a lead and take all the life out of the Fighting Manginos. If they let Kansas hang around into the second half, it could be trouble. And Texas has an injury report about as long as the Florida State suspension list...that's saying a LOT. Texas will come out with a fire and take the crowd out of it early.

Texas - 38   Kansas - 17

 

California @ Oregon State: If the Beavers win out, they'll win the Pac-10 and go to the Rose Bowl. That is not a typo. If the Beavers win this one, they'll just have to win at Arizona and a home game against Oregon to pull that off. Oregon State is a tough place to play...just ask USC. I'll say the Beavers win with a dominant running game and make the Pac-10 very interesting.

Oregon State - 27   California - 21

 

North Carolina @ Maryland: Both of these teams need to win to stay alive in their division races. UNC in the Coastal; Maryland in the Atlantic. I called for NC to be one of my surprise teams of the year. I can't pick against them. Maryland hasn't played a solid game since October 18 when they shutout Wake Forest at home, and other than that game they don't really have an impressive, dominating win on their resume.

UNC - 31   Maryland - 14

 

I also think Ohio State will win big against Illinois and Alabama will have no trouble with Mississippi State. Georgia will also obliterate Auburn and Florida will beat South Carolina.

Happy football watching!

  • mark rogers
  • November 14, 2008 9:02 PM

PIECES ARE THERE FOR AMERICA'S TEAM

The Dallas Cowboys need a spark.

After a week of fuming and pouting over the 5-4 record, it's time to re-focus and bring the season back into a positive light.

Dallas started 3-0 with solid wins over Cleveland, Philadelphia and Green Bay.

Since then the 'Boys are 2-4, 1-2 with Tony Romo, 1-2 without him. I won't even say anything about his pinkie. I've let that issue go...for now.

But to say the Cowboys have been hit by the injury (and suspension) bug, is the understatement of JerryWorld.

Romo broke his finger. Felix Jones pulled his hamstring. Terrence Newman had surgery for a sports hernia after tearing his groin (yikes) in training camp, Mat McBriar broke his foot. Kyle Kosier's missed every game with a fractured foot, Adam Jones punched his body guard in the men's room (that was Jerry's own fault), and Jason Witten has broken ribs.

I found it pretty funny that when Justin Tuck (NYG DE) was asked on the field after they beat us a few weeks ago how it felt to beat a depleted Cowboys team, he laughed and said that we weren't depleted.

He obviously hadn't checked the injury report.

On Sunday nearly all of those missing parts will return with the exception of Jones.

Kosier's return to the OL will be huge for communication, pass protection, run blocking and morale.

Romo's arm - or should I say pinkie - will open the running game back up after Marion Barber has averaged under three yards per carry the last two games because Brad Johnson and Brooks Bollinger combined to form a single Kramer.

Newman will give the defensive front seven the ability to throw a few more blitzes into the mix.

All the pieces will be there for Dallas to go on a fun and exciting run to end the season. Sometimes it's better to be the team that peaks late like the Giants did last year, rather than the team that starts great and fizzles out - like the Cowboys last year.

I guess all we can hope for is a 6-1 or 5-2 finish because anything other than that will probably have us watching the playoffs without the Cowboys and extend that playoff winless streak another excrutiating, miserable year.

We're turning into the Notre Dame of the NFL. I quiver at the thought.

But let's not go there...let's stay positive and hope that the return of all these parts will be just the spark Dallas needs to turn this thing around.

We'll see how big the spark is on Sunday night against those pesky Redskins.

  • mark rogers
  • November 14, 2008 8:41 PM

BREAKING DOWN TULSA @ HOUSTON

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/player/profile?playerId=191981

The above is a link to Case Keenum's stats. He's third in the nation in passing yards trailing only Sam Bradford and Graham Harrell...pretty good company. His competition this week, Tulsa's David Johnson, is third in the nation in TD passes...trailing the same two guys.

Everybody's got Tulsa in this game and everybody's got a pretty good case.

Tulsa has lost one game all year. It was their most recent game, at Arkansas. The Razorbacks have lost six games but they've lost to Alabama, Texas, Florida, Kentucky (by one), Ole Miss and South Caroina. That's a tough schedule.

Other than that, Tulsa's closest win was a six-point game against SMU.

Throw that and the Arkansas game out and the Golden Hurrican have scored at least 45 points in every game they've played.

Their QB is the nation's leader in passer rating at nearly 200 points.

But Houston has won four of five and are 4-1 in conference play. They lost three straight early in the year, but those games were against Oklahoma State, Air Force (lost by three) and Colorado State.

Since then, U of H is on a roll, and I would not be surprised if they upset Tulsa.

I wouldn't be surprised for three reasons.

  • 1. It's in Houston. Home field plays a big role in college football games.
  • 2. Houston's played its best football the last four weeks of the season. They're peaking at the right time.
  • 3. Tulsa is coming off a loss and a bye week on top of that. That fact could work for or against the Cougars.

I'm calling the upset in this one. I say Case throws for 400 and 4 TDs in what is sure to be a wild west shootout.

Houston 52 - Tulsa 49

  • mark rogers
  • November 14, 2008 8:29 PM

PROPS TO MY ALMA MATER

Noticed today that Plano (Class of '99) was second on the all-time wins list in Texas football history trailing Highland Park by three games.

I was a part of eight of those wins. We went 8-5 my senior year.

Plano is also tied for the most state championships in the state with seven. Can you name the other two teams?

Just comment on this post if you think you're smart.


NOT MESSING AROUND

I thought it was pretty typical of Abilene High to allow Mansfield to go on a 12-play, 80 yard drive which took nearly six minutes to start the game.

Then the Eagles went 63 yards on their first play from scrimmage. Almost like swatting a fly away...you let the fly bug you until you've had enough, then you grab the swatter and smash the fly to smithereens.

Mansfield is the fly.

  • mark rogers
  • November 14, 2008 8:25 PM

HOW I DID LAST WEEK...

A quick look at how my predictions from last week turned out...

Baylor @ UT: Baylor has a budding star at QB in Robert Griffin and they would have a glimmer of a small chance at an upset if it wasn't in Texas...maybe if it was in a dark cave with no lights and Baylor had flashlights and Texas didn't.

Texas - 42   Baylor - 17

I was pretty close on this one. Actual score was 45-21 Texas. Wow...that rarely happens so close.

 

Alabama @ LSU: If this game was at night, I would give LSU a fighting chance. Baton Rouge is a different place at night. This is actually a really important game for the Tigers. If they can somehow pull off the upset (much like they were upset as the #1 team at this point last year), then they'd pull to within a game of Alabama in the West. Then if Bama loses to Miss State or Auburn (which is a long shot), LSU would go to the SEC Championship. If Bama wins, they clinch the West and will play Florida if the Gators beat Vandy tomorrow, which they will. OOH, two picks in one!

Alabama - 31   LSU - 21           Florida - 48   Vandy - 21

Alabama won 27-21 in OT. Again, pretty close. Had the LSU score right on. I'm starting to feel pretty good about these predictions.

Florida won 42-14. I was just a few points under each score. I am the smartest man alive.

California @ USC: The Pac-10 is shaping up pretty interesting. If USC wins out, they'll win at least a share of the title. However, Oregon State only has one loss. If they win out, they'd share the championship with USC. That will be a tough task though since the Beavers play California, go to UCLA and Arizona and host Oregon. USC just has Stanford and UCLA left in conference. Anyway, Cal is definitely good enough to win this game, but USC has had its one big slip-up of the year.

Cal - 16    USC - 37

USC won 17-3. Not even close on the score. Maybe I spoke a little too soon.

 

Kansas @ Nebraska: A very important Big 12 North game. Kansas is tied with Missouri at the top of the North and those two teams play each other in the season finale. Mizzou and Kansas both need to win out to have a chance in that last game. Nebraska is a tough place to play, and they'll be anxious to get back on the field after allowing more than 60 points at Oklahoma last week.

Kansas - 31   Nebraska - 35

Kansas won 45-35. Again...way off. What an idiot.

 

Notre Dame @ Boston College: Not a game that means much for BC. They've lost two in a row and will be looking ahead to consecutive road games against Florida State and Wake Forest and then close with Maryland. By the way, those three teams are tied for first in the atlantic division. It'll be too much for the Eagles to handle and Notre Dame is playing better. They've lost two of three but the two losses were by a combined eight points and one was in OT.

Notre Dame - 31   Boston College 30

BC shut the Irish out 17-0. Never would have seen that coming. Charlie Weis better beat Navy tomorrow...more on that in a later post.

4-2 overall on my six picks. I'll take that.


November 9, 2008

NO MORE "SMOKE AND MIRRORS"

I believe a fluke is something that happens rarely. At the very least, it is something that doesn't happen consistently and could be written off as unimportant, a surprise or trivial.

Doing my household chores without being asked is a fluke. Getting in the fast checkout lane at the grocery store is a fluke. USC losing to 41-point underdog Stamford in LA was a fluke.

The Texas Tech football program has been connected with the term for several years. Last year's win over #4 Oklahoma was a fluke. Beating #9 Texas in 2002 was a fluke. Upsetting #9 California in a bowl in 2004 was fluke. You get the idea.

Everyone outside of Lubbock-land is used to the Tech storyline:

Tech has a great, record-breaking offense. They smear everyone they're supposed to smear and then lose two out of three to Oklahoma, OSU and/or Texas, then play in the Holiday or Cotton bowl which they will undoubtedly win. They will lose those games because their defense can't stop anyone and the offense scores too quick which doesn't allow the defense much of a break.

That's how it was supposed  to go down this year as well.

Even though Tech had one of the best QB-WR duos in the country, the nation's biggest offensive line and a defense that led the Big 12 in total defense the last eight games of 2007, the Red Raiders were still supposed to finish third in the division and play a meaningless bowl game.

Well, after beating Kansas on the road and Texas and OSU at home, I'm ready to give up and start believing that Tech just might do something special this year.

The term "smoke and mirrors" is used in college football quite a bit. It basically means a team can mask or hide weaknesses by using gimmicks or quirks...like a magician.

When a team has a poor running game, you put five wide receivers on the field, spread out the defense and play basketball on a field, which disguises the running game.

The same thing works to disguise a sub-par quarterback that lacks accuracy and arm strenth. A bad defense can be made to look not quite so bad if your offense scores 56 points a game. And so on and so forth...

I believe the Texas Tech Red Raiders have officially smashed the mirrors and destroyed the smoke machines that have been haunting the field house in Lubbock for many years.

Outrushing Kansas State and limiting them to less than 300 yards in total offense is a fluke...when isolated.

Outrushing Nebraska and winning a game you should probably lose in Omaha is a fluke...when isolated.

Holding A&M to 20 yards rushing and just 306 total yards at Kyle Field is a fluke (even when the Aggies are terrible)...when isolated.

Forcing five turnovers and holding a potent Kansas offense to just 315 total yards while scoring over 60 points at Kansas is a fluke...when isolated.

Outgaining Texas by 200 yards of total offense, forcing two turnovers, winning the time of possession battle, holding the Longhorns to 80 yards rushing and winning the game on a last-second, unbelievable touchdown pass is nothing more than a fluke...when isolated.

Racking up 629 yards of total offense against OSU, forcing two turnovers, holding the conference's leading rusher to just over 100 yards and only getting called on three penalties is the biggest fluke of all...when isolated.

But you put all those games together, and what you have is an impressive resume that has Tech sitting first in the division and in the driver's seat to play for a national title.

Tech passed the first test: Can they win a huge game when they're supposed to win?

We found out the answer to that question on Saturday night. The answer is...absolutely. That game wasn't even close at any point in the contest.

Tech absolutely manhandled a very talented Oklahoma State team. And they did it by playing great defense and remarkable, efficient and down-right spectacular offense.

Now we get to ask the second question: Can Tech win a huge game when they're supposed to win...on the road?

That remains to be seen, but I know I'm giving the Raiders a much better chance at winning in Oklahoma right now than I would have four, even three, weeks ago.

But even if Tech loses, the point is they finally broke through that invisible barrier that has smashed their face into the dirt at the end of every season they've played in the Big 12.

Those guys have confidence, unbridled confidence, which is why I believe they wiped the floor with OSU. That (and a solid defense) is what was missing.

Tech is no longer a fluke. They are a legitimate contender who will be around for a while. Their receivers are young, their core players are young, they have a QB stepping into the spotlight next year that has much better physicial skills than Graham Harrell and they're confident.

If Tech beats Oklahoma (and if they play like they have the last two weeks they most certainly will) then they will play either Kansas or Missouri in the Big 12 Championship (if they can somehow beat Baylor). A win in that game (and look what they did to Kansas) would put Tech in the BCS Title game.

Here's the kicker: If Oklahoma wins this week (which is a very strong possibility), then Tech will join OU and UT as 1-loss teams in the South Division. And since Texas and Oklahoma would probably jump Tech in the BCS standings, Texas and Oklahoma would get the spots in the BCS game or Fiesta Bowl, and Tech will once again be designated to the Holiday or Cotton Bowl.

The smoke and mirrors are gone. Tech is no longer a fluke.

We'll find out if the season will end as magically as it's gone the last two weeks when they have to leave the confines of football-crazed Lubbock and head to one of the most hostile places in all of college football to play a team that has quietly strung together some impressive wins since losing to Texas.

But I'll tell you one thing...I will NOT pick against Texas Tech. After watching what they did to OSU on national television, I'm ready to believe anything is possible. There's no other way to say it...Texas Tech is a really good football team. We'll have to wait and see if they can pull one more rabbit out of the hat before we can call them a "great" football team.

Texas' luck ran out against Tech. OU's ran out against Texas. Will this be the week the Red Raiders lay an egg?

Only 13 more days to find out. And that's no fluke.

 


November 8, 2008

COMMENT ON MY COLLEGE FOOTBALL PREDICTIONS

"...Just wanting to comment on tomorrows predictions by Mark "Heisman" Rogers... I agree with all of them, except KU & NEB, KU will win contrary to heismans predictions...but his accounting of the bama game is right on, along with the rest of the games, although i hope ND beats BC by more than one point...more payback for BC's last minute FG knocking off ND with one second left the week after ND beat FSU to go to the number one ranking in the country when "Dr. Lou" was at the helm...trivia question, who are the 3 best players to come out of BC...hint, one won the heisman, the other was a spitter, the last replaced a dog murderer...i will give away a fake t-shirt that does not exist for the right answer, not to heisman though. only bring natural knowledge in here, no memorization please....Heisman..."
  • mark rogers
  • November 8, 2008 11:37 AM

November 7, 2008

TECHNICAL DIFFICULTIES AND PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

We're having some computer issues with the webcast...so while we wait I'll go over the Playoff teams for each district:

3-5A: Abilene High, Richland, North Crowley and Burleson are your playoff teams. Burleson won tonight which clinched their spot.

2-3A: Wylie, Sweetwater and Snyder thanks to the Tigers 56-49 win over Brownwood tonight. What a game that must have been. B'wood, Graham and Breckenridge are out.

6-2A: Clyde, Cisco and Merkel clinched last week.

7-2A: Ballinger, Jim Ned and Colorado City. The Wolves clinched the final spot with a win over Wall tonight.

8-2A: Brady and Ballinger clinched already and we have a three way tie between Comanche, Coleman and Early which all sit at 3-3. Not sure how they decide the tie-breaker in this district. I'll let the ARN figure that one out.

11A: Roscoe, Rotan and Stamford. All Rotan and Stamford needed was for Roscoe to win which they did. If they hadn't we could've had a three-way tie.

12A: Albany, Bronte and Winters. The Blizzards clinched with a win over Miles tonight. A Miles win and it could've turned ugly.

15A: DeLeon, Perrin-Whitt and Gorman clinched last week.

9A: Archer City, Seymour and Windthorst clinched last week.

Congrats to all the teams headed to the playoffs. Check the ARN for all the playoff matchups next week.

See you on the webcast next week if we can't get it up and running tonight. Poor Nathaniel is throwing the kitchen sink at the computers!!! Run for your life!!!

  • mark rogers
  • November 7, 2008 10:37 PM

THAT'S HOW YOU DO IT, WYLIE

Wylie just proved my point on why Oklahoma State will beat Tech tomorrow.

They went on the road and just shutout one of the most prolific 2A offenses in the state and scored all their points in the first 5.5 minutes of the game.

Wylie made a big offensive and defensive play early and rode the momentum all the way to the win. They never let the crowd get into it or let the Mustang offense get any sort of groove going. Wylie also completely controlled the clock resulting in one of the fastest games EVER (it seemed like it anyway).

One of the most impressive wins in recent history for Wylie, and they've played a lot of great games the last four or five years.

Not one of the most dramatic like the State Title game in 04, but definitely up there in execution and proficiency. Wow...that's the only word for it.

Wylie is the District 2-3A champ and will head into the playoffs on a huge wave of momentum...look for the Bulldogs to make another long run.

  • mark rogers
  • November 7, 2008 9:53 PM

TRIVIA QUESTION - SANS MOM OR DAD

I'm going to have another trivia question...maybe a little easier this week. I'm going to give out the number during the webcast and hope that someone calls in other than my mom or dad.

We gave a T-shirt away several weeks ago and my dad won. I had a call-in trivia question last week and didn't even answer the phone since I recognized it as my parents home number...twas my mom.

I'll give the question and phone number about five minutes into the webcast. No prize...just pride.


GAMES TOMORROW

I already broke down Tech/Oklahoma State in a previous post.

 

Baylor @ UT: Baylor has a budding star at QB in Robert Griffin and they would have a glimmer of a small chance at an upset if it wasn't in Texas...maybe if it was in a dark cave with no lights and Baylor had flashlights and Texas didn't.

Texas - 42   Baylor - 17

 

Alabama @ LSU: If this game was at night, I would give LSU a fighting chance. Baton Rouge is a different place at night. This is actually a really important game for the Tigers. If they can somehow pull off the upset (much like they were upset as the #1 team at this point last year), then they'd pull to within a game of Alabama in the West. Then if Bama loses to Miss State or Auburn (which is a long shot), LSU would go to the SEC Championship. If Bama wins, they clinch the West and will play Florida if the Gators beat Vandy tomorrow, which they will. OOH, two picks in one!

Alabama - 31   LSU - 21           Florida - 48   Vandy - 21

 

California @ USC: The Pac-10 is shaping up pretty interesting. If USC wins out, they'll win at least a share of the title. However, Oregon State only has one loss. If they win out, they'd share the championship with USC. That will be a tough task though since the Beavers play California, go to UCLA and Arizona and host Oregon. USC just has Stanford and UCLA left in conference. Anyway, Cal is definitely good enough to win this game, but USC has had its one big slip-up of the year.

Cal - 16    USC - 37

 

Kansas @ Nebraska: A very important Big 12 North game. Kansas is tied with Missouri at the top of the North and those two teams play each other in the season finale. Mizzou and Kansas both need to win out to have a chance in that last game. Nebraska is a tough place to play, and they'll be anxious to get back on the field after allowing more than 60 points at Oklahoma last week.

Kansas - 31   Nebraska - 35

 

Notre Dame @ Boston College: Not a game that means much for BC. They've lost two in a row and will be looking ahead to consecutive road games against Florida State and Wake Forest and then close with Maryland. By the way, those three teams are tied for first in the atlantic division. It'll be too much for the Eagles to handle and Notre Dame is playing better. They've lost two of three but the two losses were by a combined eight points and one was in OT.

Notre Dame - 31   Boston College 30

 

  • mark rogers
  • November 7, 2008 8:58 PM

PROFOUND COWBOYS PREDICTION

The Dallas Cowboys WILL NOT lose this weekend. That is a 100% can't-lose guarantee. There is no possible way for them to get beat again. No way...it will be a good weekend.

  • mark rogers
  • November 7, 2008 8:46 PM

WYLIE DEFENSE PLAYING GREAT

It's pretty amazing that Wylie has shutout Sweetwater in the first half...at home.

The Bulldogs did exactly what you want to do in a big game at a hostile stadium. They scored on an explosive offensive play early, caused a turnover and scored again.

It was 14-0 with 6:33 left in the first quarter and that was the halftime score. Wylie struck a big blow early and rode the momentum into the break.

Now we'll see if the Mustangs can get a couple of big plays of their own and get back in this thing. I think it's a good possibility.

Sweetwater's too good to be held down at home for this long.

Second half could be one for the ages.

  • mark rogers
  • November 7, 2008 8:41 PM

OK...SERIOUSLY, TECH WILL FINALLY LOSE TOMORROW

And here's why. Two words. One player:

Kendall Hunter.

The Big 12 rushing leader...by a lot. The fourth leading rusher in the country. Top 10 in carries. Top 15 in TDs. Top 20 in yards per carry. Oklahoma State will win tomorrow and may end up in the BCS because of the way they can run the football.

When Oklahoma State beat Missouri, I still wasn't convinced they were as good as hyped.

I thought Missouri just laid an egg. Then they went to Austin, and my ears began to perk up.

OSU out-rushed UT by nearly double...double. And lost. If that game had been anywhere else, the Cowboys would have won.

Home field advantage is as good as 4 or 5 points in college football and UT won by four.

Oklahoma State is out-rushing opponents this year by 156.7 yards per game. That is ridiculous.

They've gone over 200 yards as a team 7 of 9 games. Over 350 in three games. And topped out at 450...against the then-number-3 ranked team in the nation. Those numbers are staggering.

To put it in perspective...

You could argue that Michigan State is a great rushing team. Spartan RB Javon Ringer is leading the nation in rushing and rushing TDs.

The Spartans have gone over 200 yards rushing as a team three times in nine games...just three.

And only four teams in the nation average more yards on the ground than OSU: Navy, Air Force, Louisiana-Lafayette and Nevada. Four joke programs.

OSU leads the "big-boy" teams in rushing and they've played the #1 and #3 ranked teams and are about to play #2. They totalled 404 yards in those two games. It's not like they're playing cupcakes.

Here's another interesting stat: at this point in the season four FBS teams out of 120 have rushed and thrown for more than 2,000 yards. Those teams are TCU, Penn State, Tulsa and Oklahoma State.

If Hunter goes off tomorrow, OSU will win big. Hunter goes over 150 and it's a two score win. For every ten yards he goes over 150, I'll add another score to that margin of victory.

The way to beat the Red Raiders is to keep them from scoring. The way you keep a team from scoring isn't by playing good defense. It's by maintaining drives and keeping the opposing offense off the field.

Texas didn't do that. The Longhorns only racked up 80 yards rushing against TTU.

OSU can and will do it tomorrow and the Tech's run near the summit of college football win end.

Prediction: Oklahoma State - 28, Texas Tech - 24

And by the way...OSU hasn't won in Lubbock since 1944...according to one of neighbors who probably texted me that info whilst sitting in a deer blind.


HOW I DID LAST WEEK...

Here's the breakdown of my predictions last week...

I obviously missed UT/Tech picking Texas 42-35. Great game though...I've already broken that game down in an earlier post.

I think Florida will beat Georgia tomorrow. They're playing at a high level and will be looking for payback after the Bulldog Party in the endzone last year. And smear George they did...by more than 30. Florida is playing the best football in the country right now and I don't think it's close.

Oklahoma will smear Nebraska. But what a game that used to be...That was a smear, too. OU is quietly playing pretty good ball, too.

Florida State and Georgia Tech should also be a good game. The ACC is totally up in the air. I called FSU to be a surprise team for 2008 so I'll stick with them to win their division and play for the ACC Title. Florida State would have won if Marcus Sims doesn't fumble into the endzone heading in for the go-ahead score. Great game though. Crazy thing is FSU is still tied for first in the Atlantic division.

  • mark rogers
  • November 7, 2008 7:58 PM

November 3, 2008

HIGH SCHOOL PLAYOFF PICTURE

This is always the craziest week of the high school football season. Not so much for who's going to win each district because the teams fighting for the district crown are just fighting for bragging rights. They're always already going to the playoffs.

But THAT'S where it gets interesting...when you have three teams fighting for one spot. Or four teams fighting for two.

Here's how each district breaks down:

 

District 3-5A:

Abilene High is your district champ and they'll be joined by Richland and North Crowley in the post-season. With one spot open, Burleson, Weatherford and Haltom City will battle it out...only not against each other. Burleson hosts Weatherford and Haltom City goes to Richland. If one team wins and the other two lose, the winning team goes. If Burleson and Haltom City win, Burleson would go by virtue of a one point win over Haltom City on October 3.

Now let's make it even more confusing...if Weatherford beats Burleson and Haltom City loses, we'd have three teams tied at 2-4 and only one team goes. Then we'd have a tie breaker based on what the district deemed was the tie-breaker at the beginning of the season. I'll let the ARN figure all those fun scenarios out for us...that goes for the rest of the three-team ties for the remainder of this post.

 

District 4-4A:

Frenship and Cooper have clinched. Lake View, Big Spring and Hereford could all possibly end up 2-3 in league play with two spots left.

It would be real easy if Big Spring wins, then Big Spring and Lake View would go since four teams go and Hereford and Plainview would have at least four losses eliminating them from the race. But if Lake View loses and Hereford beats Big Spring, they'd all be 2-3. Three teams...two spots...let the fun begin.

There may be other scenarios in that district...I'm just not smart enough to figure them out.

 

District 2-3A:

Another fun one. Sweetwater and Wylie have clinched.

If Brownwood beats Snyder and Graham beats Breckenridge, Brownwood, Snyder and Graham would be 2-3. Three teams...two spots.

However, if Snyder wins, they're in...period. If Snyder loses and Breckenridge beats Graham, then Brownwood would go since they'd have the tie-breaker over Snyder.

But we still have that three team tie scenario.

 

District 6-2A:

Easy. Done. Clyde, Cisco and Merkel clinched last week.

 

District 7-2A:

Ballinger and Jim Ned have clinched. If Colorado City beats Wall, the Wolves go and everyone else stays home.

If Wall beats C-City and Grape Creek loses, then Wall would go.

If Wall beats C-City and Grape Creek wins, you'd have C-City, Grape Creek and Wall all tied at 2-3 with only one spot remaining...

 

District 8-2A:

Brady and Bangs (who play this week) have already clinched.

If Coleman beats San Saba and Early loses to Dublin, Coleman would go with a 3-3 record (tied with Comanche) since they beat Comanche on September 26.

But in that scenario, if Early beats Dublin (which is likely), then Coleman, Comanche and Early would all have identical 3-3 records. Three teams...one spot.

But if San Saba beats Coleman and Dublin beats Eastland, which is highly unlikely, Comanche would.

 

District 11-A:

Roscoe has clinched.

This is an interesting situation. If Stamford beats Rotan and Roscoe wins, then those three would go.

How about this: Roscoe loses to Hamlin, Stamford beats Rotan...you'd have a three-way tie at 3-2 with Rotan, Stamford and Hamlin. Two of those teams would get to go.

If Rotan, Haskell and Roscoe win, then Stamford, Hamlin and Haskell would have identical 2-3 records. And only one team would join Roscoe and Rotan in the playoffs.

If Hamlin beats Roscoe and Stamford wins and Haskell loses to Roby, Stamford would go since they beat Hamlin. Confused yet?

 

District 12-A:

Albany and Bronte have clinched.

If Winters wins, they're in.

If Winters loses to Miles and Baird beats Cross Plains, you'd have three teams vying for that final spot. If Miles wins and Baird loses, Miles would go.

 

District 15-A:

Done. DeLeon, Perrin-Whitt and Gorman have clinched. Tolar, Ranger and Santo are out.

 

District 9-A:

Done. Archer City, Seymour and Windthorst have clinched. Munday, Petrolia and Electra are out.

 

Correct me if I'm wrong about any of this...and for six man scenarios, check out www.sixmanfootball.com

Should be a great night of high school football this week...I'm confused already.

  • mark rogers
  • November 3, 2008 4:01 PM

DISAPPOINTMENT IN ROMO

As much as I love Tony Romo and have supported him throughout his career, I am extremely disappointed in him as a football player right now.

I was the first to jump to his defense about "the pinky" when he first broke it. Yes, it's bad to play with it because it could make it worse and accuracy will be great effected.

True...but when your team is on the brink of another huge embarrassing failure of a season, you have to suck it up and get out there. Not be sucking on coffee on the sidelines in a beanie.

If Dallas were heading into yesterday's game 6-2, then sure, sit out. We can afford 6-3 heading into the bye week.

But when we're 5-3 with a chance to fall completely out of the division and maybe even playoff race, you have to at least suit up and be ready to go in case our two "outstanding" back ups lay an egg.

Brad Johnson and Brooks Bollinger are absolutely the worst quarterbacks in the history of the universe.

You could put just about any backup QB in the league out there with that offense and get at least a LITTLE production.

We have two of the best receivers in the game, the best tight end (with a broken rib), one of the toughest and hard-nosed running backs EVER, and we can't rack up more than 180 yards and one touchdown???!!!

It's pathetic. It's embarrassing. It's downright pitiful.

And what I don't understand is that Romo's taking absolutely no heat for his actions...or non-actions.

I might have to eat these words at the end of the season when we're 10-6 headed to the post-season, clicking on all cylinders. But I doubt it.

We have to win five of our last seven games against Washington, San Francisco, Seattle. the Giants, Baltimore, Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. That wouldn't be easy for anybody to do, much less the most over-hyped and under-achieving team in the history of the NFL.

 

Dear Tony Romo,

Take the beanie off year head. Put on your football helmet. Wrap some tape around your precious pinky and get out there and play some ball.

I shake my head in your general direction and hope you are never mentioned in the same breath as Brett Favre EVER again.

Sincerely,

Every Dallas Cowboy fan on Earth


GRASPING AT DIGNITY...DEFENDING MY ANALYSIS

This is me trying to salvage some shred of dignity after predicting another Texas Tech loss...here is something I predicted last week during my Texas/Texas Tech analysis, and I quote:

"If Tech's defense can keep the big play receivers of Texas in front of them and force third-and-longs (which they have been great at stopping this year), Tech has a good chance to win.

That will be the key matchup tomorrow night. If Texas can get pressure, much like they did a few years ago against Cody Hodges (the former Hereford Whiteface), and put Harrell on his back or maybe break his throwing shoulder, Texas will win. If Tech's mammoth OL can keep Harrell safe for the 2.1 seconds he needs to deliver the ball, Tech will win." 

 

So...for the record, even though I was wrong about most of the things in my "analysis". There were a few things I had right on.

Tech forced 12 third downs, seven of which were longer than four yards. Texas only converted four of them. Coming into the game they were one of the best in the nation at third down efficiency at well over 50%.

Tech was able to force Texas into third and longs. One of my ingredients for a Tech win.

The other ingredient was to keep Harrell protected. He was only sacked twice and wasn't really pressured that much throughout the game. The loss of Brian Orakpo, Texas' most dynamic pass rusher, to a sprained knee didn't help the cause, but we're not making excuses here.

Texas didn't get pressure on Harrell. The other ingredient was successfully poured into the Texas Tech crock pot and they won.

The other thing that really surprised me about the game was that Texas made all the silly mental mistakes that I thought Tech would make.

Dropped passes (and interceptions), penalties, etc...

I give Tech much credit for playing with and showing the amount of poise they did on Saturday. The team turned a corner when they were able to take all the momentum away from Texas in the final 89 seconds, drive the field and non-chalantly take the lead back with one second left.

I'll also give the fans credit. They sure create a great atmosphere for college football.

So for all you Tech fans out there, I'll do you a favor. I'm going to keep predicting Tech to lose...it sure seems to be working for you so far.

And I am left with no dignity.

 

 

  • mark rogers
  • November 3, 2008 10:04 AM