LONGHORNS WILL SURVIVE THE SOUTH
By mark rogers
June 15, 2009
You could make a strong argument that the Big 12 South is the toughest division in football. The other contender in that discussion is the SEC West.
The Big 12 South includes Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, Baylor and Texas A&M.
The SEC West? Ole Miss, Alabama, LSU, Arkansas, Auburn and Mississippi State.
Comparing those two divisions outright will be the topic of a completely different post. This one here? We're just talking Big 12 South.
Texas A&M: they might actually be a bowl team in any other division or conference, but in the Big 12 South? They're terrible and will finish last.
Baylor: I'm calling for the Bears to make it to their first bowl since 1994. Why? Because they have one of the most talented, young QBs in the country in Robert Griffin. They've got a lot coming back on both sides of the ball and have an extremely talented and athletic defense. They will not be an automatic win for anyone this year. I actually believe they'll beat either Oklahoma State or Texas Tech.
Texas Tech: The Raiders are coming off their first ever 11-win season and were ranked as high as #2 late in the year before laying three eggs to end the season (a blowout loss at OU, a come-from-behind win at home against Baylor and a loss to Ole Miss in the Cotton Bowl).
But the Raiders have a decent chance at winning 10 games this year (including a bowl win) because they have most of their defense back and will once again be one of the nation's most prolific offenses. Taylor Potts (Abilene High) is stepping into the bright lights and will have a fantastic year at QB. The only problem early on is that Tech plays at Texas on September 19, and I have a hard time believing the Raiders have a chance in that game. Tech does have a decent chance at being 8-1 heading into their final three games against the Oklahomas and Baylor and could be ranked in the top 10 heading into that stretch (especially if they play Texas close and win at Nebraska).
Oklahoma State: Ah, yes. The team everyone likes to forget about. The team that would easily, EASILY win the Big East and ACC and would have a great chance to win the Big 10 and every other non-BCS conference in America. But, alas, they're in the meat-grinder Big 12 South. This is a team that returns about 15 starters including what could be the best form of "The Triplets" in the nation in QB Zac Robinson, RB Kendall Hunter and WR Dez Bryant.
Robinson is the only one of that group that WASN'T a 1st Team All-American and he just threw for 3,000 yards, 25 TDs, completed 65% of his passes and had a 166.8 rating. Pedestrian numbers when compared with fellow Big 12 South QBs Sam Bradford (50 TDs, 4,720 yds, 180.8 rating - national record, and 67.9 completion %) and Colt McCoy (34 TDs, 3,859 yds, 173.8 rating, 76.7 completion % - national record).
Robinson would have led the Big 10, ACC, Big East and Pac 10 in QB rating, and he would have led the Big 10, ACC and Big East in TDs and completion percentage. Ridiculous that he's in the "middle of the pack" in his division.
Needless to say that Hunter and Bryant are complete studs and LB Patrick Lavine and CB Perrish Cox will be drafted on day one next spring.
Oklahoma: I've already listed Bradford's Playstation-esque numbers. Then the Sooners return the best RB position in the country in DeMarco Murray and Chris Brown. I'll stand by that ranking. They're the best two RBs on any team...period. Jermaine Gresham is the best tight end in the country and they have nine starters back on defense including all four linemen, which is also the best unit in the country.
The only question mark is the offensive line which just returns one starter. That could play a role in whether or not Bradford puts up the kind of numbers he did a year ago in his Heisman campaign. The receivers are also less experienced. I expect Offensive Coordinators Kevin Wilson and Jay Norvell to rely more on the running game this year which will cause a decline in Bradford's numbers (a reason I don't think Bradford will repeat as Heisman winner).
And finally...Texas: Again, I already listed McCoy's numbers which included a new all-time record for completion percentage in a season...76.7%...unheard of. They also bring back a four-headed RB monster in Vondrell McGee, Foswhitt Whittaker, bruiser Cody Johnson and incoming freshman Chris Whaley.
The reason I think they'll beat OU this year? Simple. Their strengths are the Sooners' weaknesses: offensive line and receiver. Texas returns four O-linemen and the one "non-returning" starter actually started three games last year and played in 13 games as a true freshman in 2006. The receiving corps is basically intact with the addition of former QB John Chiles who is the fastest player on the team.
The defense will be even better than last year with big-time experience and talent.
But the reason I decided Texas would win the South was after looking at and comparing the schedules. Texas' schedule is slightly easier than the other members of the division. And keep in mind that the term "easier" is very, VERY relative here.
They open with Louisiana Monroe, then play Wyoming, UTEP and Central Florida in the non-conference games. Plus they miss out on Nebraska (picked to win North) and get Colorado, Kansas and Tech at home. They key games will be OU in Dallas and Oklahoma State in Stillwater.
OU opens with a strong BYU team, plays at Miami, and in conference goes to Nebraska and plays in Lubbock and Lawrence. The only home Big 12 teams the Sooners will host are Baylor, Kansas State, A&M and Oklahoma State.
OSU's schedule is even more brutal. They open with Georgia and Houston, and at the beginning of the season, both of those are games the Cowboys could very easily lose if they're not careful. They do get Texas and Missouri at home and miss out on Nebraska and the Kansas schools. The kicker is the fact they end with Texas Tech, Colorado and at Oklahoma, a stretch which could derail their season especially since they only get five days off between Tech and Colorado (which is on a Thursday).
So there you have it. Texas will win the South, will win the conference and play Florida in the national championship.
Sounds a lot like 2005 when Texas and USC where ranked #1 and #2 heading into the season and played in the Rose Bowl. This year it will be Florida #1, Texas #2 and that's how it will most likely stay throughout the season.
The fun part (or frustrating part) of it all is that OU or OSU could just as easily win the South. Nebraska could get hot and win the conference and we could see 47 changes in the top 5 like we've seen the past few years.
But that's my prediction and I'm sticking to it.
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