HORNS vs. DEVILS
By Mary Youngblood / Leander, Texas
As I stated in an earlier post, My father is a graduate of Arizona State University. I am first and foremost a Texas fan, but needless to say ASU is my second favorite team, and I have followed them somewhat this season.
I am now going to post a scouting report/breakdown of the stats so that Colt McCoy fans can get a good idea of the opponent we are about to play.
These teams actually have a lot of similarities. They are both second half teams who seem to flourish when they have to come from behind. Like Texas, ASU started off the year undefeated through the first several games even though the scores were closer than they should've been and they weren't playing to their best potential.
They both lost to teams they should have lost to in games where they gave it their all (OU for us, USC for them) and to teams that seemed good at the time but who folded to much worse records at the end of the year in games where they didn't play well at all (K-State for us, Oregon for them.) The difference is that ASU pulled out the Arizona game at the last minute, and the Longhorns were unable to do the same in similar game with A&M.
ASU, like Texas has had severe injuries to the offensive line. This coupled with suspensions (due to offseason arrest -- also familiar in these parts) and injuries to running backs, ASU doesn't run the football as often as UT and doesn't run out of the I-formation at all. This made it difficult for them to score in the red zone this season.
ASU has also allowed many sacks this season (in the 50s at last count.) Rudy Carpenter is an excellent quarterback and has excellent receivers and tight ends to throw to. Texas must get pressure on Carpenter and play good coverage downfield to stop the Sun Devil's attack. They will need a similar defensive game plan as the one employed against the Red Raiders and not the one they tried against A&M to win this game defensively.
Carpenter isn't as mobile as Colt and therefore line issues equal sacks but not interceptions. I think this will be a good game with a close final score. I think if these teams played 10 times, each team would come away with 5 wins. I think the factors it will come down to are Texas' ability to run the football, especially in the red zone (and ASU's lack thereof) and ASU's disappointment at being left out of the BCS will give the Horns the edge in the one game they are going to play.
As to my last point, I do think that ASU's being snubbed out of the BCS will be a factor as there have been several upsets and near upsets in the Holiday Bowl recently, where the team favored was snubbed from the BCS and didn't focus on the team in front of them. While Texas is disappointed that they fell short of expectations this season, we are in the bowl that we deserve for the season we played, and I haven't heard any murmurs in the Longhorn fanbase about what bowl we are in versus where we should be due to our record.
ASU thought they were going to the BCS and were snubbed for a couple of teams who either had a worse record (Illinois) or lost their last game, bumping them down to their allotted slot instead of the championship game (West Virginia). The Rose Bowl is not going to take a USC/ASU matchup, and the other two at-large teams - Kansas, who had a better record, and Georgia, who had same record in tougher conference - were more attractive picks to the BCS.
The last two times teams like this "dropped" to the Holiday Bowl they both lost (Cal in '04 and Oregon in '05.) I think Texas edges out ASU in a close one in San Diego.
Stat Breakdown:
Total Offensive Yards (average per game): ASU: 434.1 (39th national ranking) Texas: 472.0 (13th national ranking)
Passing Yards (average per game:) ASU: 287.5 (30th national ranking) Texas: 272.2 (38th national ranking)
Rushing Yards (average per game:) ASU: 146.6 (68th nationally), Texas: 199.8 (26th nationally)
Points Scored (average per game:) ASU: 32.2 (35th nationally,)Texas: 36.0 (19th nationally.) Since 2001 ASU is 13-3 in games where final score was within 7 or fewer points, Texas is 17-4 when final score is within 7 or fewer points.