Jim Vertuno of the Associated Press points out why the good money is on the Sooners. Despite the fact that UT has won 2 of the last 3 games, most often the higher-ranked team wins the Red River Shootout.

In the last 60 games where the teams were ranked by AP, the higher-ranked team has won 78 percent of the time.

Thanks for doing that math, Jim. Oh, and the last upset was in 1992. Also, Mack Brown has never beaten a higher-ranked OU team.

So there. You can do the same math and see the logic.

Well, I'm not one of the "true" faithful (I want UT to win every game except against Texas Tech), but I believe the Horns are going to pull off the upset.

And the main reason is the guy who wears a No. 12 on the back of his jersey.

Colt McCoy and Sam Bradford, the OU gunslinger, could not be much closer stat-wise than they are this season.

Colt is 103-of-130 (79%) for 1,280 yards, 16 TDs and three picks.

Sam is 106-of-146 (73%) for 1,665 yards, 18 TDs and three picks.

That right there tells you how close a game it will be, but Colt gives the Horns the edge with his legs.

Here's some more math for you. As everyone knows Colt's the leading rusher on the team with 317 yards and four TDs.

Also, despite the fact that Sam is slightly bigger (6-4, 218) than Colt (6-3, 210), I think Colt is tougher.

I was in the stands for that Tech/OU game last season, and the hit that put Sam out of the game early didn't look that hard. Not that it wouldn't have sent most of us reeling, of course. It resulted in a concussion, and Sam - then and now one of the best OU QBs ever - had to leave the game.

That said, I've seen Colt take four or five hits just as hard or harder this season already.

The fact that hardly anyone gives Texas a chance against Oklahoma bodes well for Colt and the rest of the Longhorns.

No matter what you're playing in life, being the under-dog is always the preferred way to start the game.

The only game that could be better than this one is a few weeks down the road ... if Texas and Tech both enter that one undefeated.

Keep the faith, baby!

In fact, Brad says the reason Colt is having such a good year is because "it all goes back to preparation."

Colt's preparation started just after the scoreboard clock showed 00:00 and UT 52, ASU 34 in the Holiday Bowl last year.

"He recommitted himself and worked hard both physically and mentally in the off-season, spring and summer," said Brad. "He is consistent in what he does now because of that."

Brad talked to his son last night. Colt told him he knows Oklahoma is "really good," but Colt also likes the way his own team is playing right now and their chances of winning the game.

"He's been on that stage twice before, and he's really confident."

Brad agrees with me that the game will be close and that the 'Horns should've won last year's shootout. (Don't get me started on that again.)

In the Colorado game, Brad the coach thought UT might have shown signs of some lack of concentration in an overall great effort.

"I felt like the defense played really well, and our offense didn't quite hit its stride - maybe not quite as in sync as before."

Brad thought there might have been a little problem with the "sync" factor on Colt's first pick in the Colorado game.

"That first one was on him. He had gone through his progressions and the first two looks were covered, so he tried to hit Quan on a drag route. He had some pressure and just didn't get it where he wanted it to be ... but that guy played really good defense, too," added Brad the father.

The three sacks on Colt by the Buffs don't worry Brad as the OU game approaches, where his son was sacked four times last year.

"Two were just a couple of missed blocks. That happens."

Brad said he usually "tries to hide from the cameras" at the games by swapping tickets to get out of the main group of UT parents, friends, etc., but he wasn't able to last Saturday.

"You never know when the camera is on you," said Brad. "They have them sailing through the air now."

Sailing through the air.

I think that's a good phrase to describe what the cameras will be showing footballs doing Saturday morning and early afternoon at the Cotton Bowl.

As a Colt fan and a Red Raider fan/alum, let me just add this:

P.S. Just boom those Sooners!

The fat lady was singing by halftime for the rest of those games.

In a hostile environment, with Colt McCoy throwing two picks against a tough secondary, the Longhorns still managed to take care of business as most everyone else in Burnt Orange Nation looked ahead one week to the Cotton Bowl.

It's good that Colt got a somewhat "average" game out of the way before he made it to the Red River Shootout, where he's a respectable 1-1.

And I hope his offensive line got it out of their system as well ... three sacks?

Sure, 262 yards through the air with two TDs and a 76% completion rate is nothing to sneeze at, and that may be all he needs against the Sooners.

This year's version of the greatest rivalry in the nation is going to be another close game, and luckily all the pressure is going to be on Sam Bradford this time around, not Colt ... like last year.

Bradford is a really good quarterback, but since UT and OU are in the same boat with running back (by committee), you really can't give the edge to OU. If both Colt and Sam have a great day, it's going to be a toss-up who comes away with the "W." If either one slumps, the other team wins.

That's pretty cut and dried. And I don't think either quarterback is going to mail it in ... maybe airmail it in.

And I don't care if you go up and down the rosters comparing the two teams. It doesn't matter on paper who's the best.

I like UT's chances, and have predicted for a long time they will win this one.

And not because they're better, but because they're the under-dog for the umpteenth time against the Sooners and they're ready to shut up the skeptics.

Here's what my crystal ball says - UT 38, OU 35 with 6 ... no, make that 7 TD passes total.

Take a look at the "Last meeting" line. That could give the Buffs some added incentive.

And with the number of upsets recently in college football, the Longhorns better not take that two-touchdown favorite deal too seriously.

GAME CAPSULE

Line: Texas by 13½.

Series Record: Texas leads 9-7.

Last meeting: 2005, Texas won 70-3 in Big 12 title game.

What's at Stake

A win in the Big 12 opener. A Texas victory sets up a big showdown next week with No. 1 Oklahoma in Dallas. A Colorado win makes the Buffaloes serious contenders to win the Big 12 North.

Key Matchup

Watch the trenches when Colorado has the ball. Texas has 14 sacks in the past two games, and the Buffs are trying to protect QB Cody Hawkins with an offensive line missing tackle Ryan Miller. He broke his leg last week in a loss to Florida State.

Players to Watch

Texas: QB Colt McCoy. Who else? McCoy is having a stellar season, completing 80 percent of his passes and throwing for 14 touchdowns. He's also the Longhorns' leading rusher with 278 yards and four TDs while averaging 8.2 yards per carry.

Colorado: RB Rodney Stewart, if you can find him. The Texas defense might have trouble spotting the 5-foot-6, 175-pound freshman who has run behind his big blockers for 349 yards. Stewart's early success has stolen the spotlight from freshman Darrell Scott, a top national recruit.

Facts & Figures

Texas and Colorado waged a fierce recruiting battle for Scott and UT's loss looms large. McCoy is leading Texas in rushing in part because the Longhorns haven't found a go-to tailback. ... Texas outscored its first four opponents 198-43. ... The Longhorns have been ranked in the top 10 in each of the last five meetings with Colorado. The Buffaloes' only victory in that stretch came in the 2001 Big 12 title game.

On TV: 6 p.m. Saturday, FSN (Fox Sports)

Well, one thing ... if Colt McCoy is the leading rusher for UT in any particular game, the Longhorns will win that game by a score of 52-10. If I were Greg Davis, I'd call a bunch of quarterback draws against Colorado.

The other thing is - Colt has the second-best quarterback rating in the nation at 209.71. The only QB ahead of him is David Johnson of Tulsa with a 227.22. The rest of the top 5 are from the Big 12, of course - OU's Sam Bradford (209.05), Missouri's Chase Daniel 193.39) and OSU's Zac Robinson (192.35). Tech's Graham Harrell is way down at 21st on the list (153.62), but don't let that fool you. The Red Raiders are having a great year running the ball. Harrell is good - third best in the Big 12 behind McCoy and Bradford.

Of course, Colt and the Longhorns have to face the Buffs' Cody Hawkins (55th, 129.83) next, but I don't have to worry about looking ahead ... which is what I'm going to do with the Sooners.

Some people (mostly Aggies) say Colt's nemesis is some kind of Aggie jinx. He'll break that this year, BTW. But right here, right now, I say any potential nemesis is wearing a No. 14 red jersey, and his last name is Bradford. The Horns should've taken that game against OU into overtime last year, and then who knows what might have happened. Instead, those Red River yankees won, 28-21.

Colt and Sam were thisclose in performance. Colt was 19-of-26 for 324 yards and two TDs, while Sam was 21-of-32 for 244 yards and three TDs. What was the difference? Well, in addition to an untimely lost fumble late in the game, Colt was sacked four times to Sam's just once.

Oh, one more thing we know about this season so far ... no way is Colt going to be sacked four times in one game again.

Colt McCoy personifies what I like about 2008 Longhorn football. It's fun to watch ... kinda like a Texas Tech game.

More Monday ...

Mix it up with Colt McCoy and John Chiles both on the field at the same time. That "Q" formation (when both are in) hasn't been used that much, but I bet we see it more in the friendly confines of DKR Memorial Stadium against the Razorbacks.

I'd especially like to see this play:

Chiles lines up left as wide receiver. Colt hands off to Chris Ogbonnaya who heads left to meet Chiles, whom he tosses the ball to on a reverse headed right. Meanwhile, Colt limps toward the left sideline with a pained look on his face. Everyone else is going right until Chiles stops in his tracks and throws to a now open Colt sprinting down the sideline.

This would be a great play for just outside the red zone.

OK, I know. They'll never run that in a million years. Well, how about actually throwing to Colt when he lines up out there as he did against Rice.

Or better yet, with the unfortunate injury to Blaine Irby, try Chiles at tight end ... and, of course, throw to him.

If nothing else, line them up in the "double shotgun" I've been begging for since last year. Ogbonnaya could either be spread out as a wide receiver or actually behind the two QBs in an "upside-down T." Think of all the fakes that formation would provide before someone darts through a hole caused by confused defensive linemen.

Hey, it could happen!

Everything available from the Associated Press with him in the shot features his leg skills, not his arm skills. Quite a change from last year, and that may bode well for the rest of the season.

Below are Colt's quotes from the Monday press conference. You can tell he is enjoying himself, and I expect the runnin' and gunnin' and havin' funnin' to continue in the Arkansas game.

And that's good. Even though there will no doubt be pockets of "fun" once the Big 12 schedule hits, the stress and pressure that rears its ugly head while playing against equally strong teams always takes its toll - both physically and mentally.

Fun is good. Look at Tony Romo. Colt evidently enjoys doing what's he's doing just as much as the Cowboys' QB does. And don't let the naysayers fool you - that style of play can lead you to the promised land as well.

On preparing for Arkansas for a second time: We'll just use that extra week. They had that same extra week of preparation that we had. We'll just go back to work on them. Fortunately for us as an offense, structurally Rice and Arkansas do the same thing; they line up the same way. Obviously they have different blitzes, different coverages but when you line them up on film they look similar.

On he and Jordan Shipley playing at a high level together: It's fun. We throw the ball around so much. When we go back home or anytime, we always carry a football. We've always talked about throwing touchdowns all the time, so being able to do that is fun. Being able to have him out there, I know where he's going to be all the time. He does a great job of just getting open. When the ball's in his hands, he's going to make plays. It's a lot of fun.

On his flea flicker pass to Shipley: That's the hardest throw there is, that's the hardest catch there is. When there's nobody around, throwing versus the air. I would much rather throw the first touchdown that I did to him, that's a much easier throw to make even though it doesn't look like it. At the same time, when he's running that wide open you don't want to short arm it or throw it over his head.

On his touchdown run against Rice: I surprised myself. I just wanted to score, that's all that happened. I appreciate Jordan pushing the guy into me, that made it look a little bit better I think. I just ended up scoring somehow.

On the 99-yard touchdown drive: We didn't have that good of field position in the first half against Rice, but that makes a huge statement. That wears the defense down so much. Being able to come off the goal line, we made two or three third-down conversions in the drive, so being able to sustain a drive like that, keep a defense off the field, that helps our team. When you can drive 100 yards and get points that helps, too.

On the success he's had so far in his career: There have been so many great quarterbacks to come here. I'm playing behind probably the best ever in Vince (Young). To be able to have the success that we're having is a blessing. That goes back to my coaches, to my teammates, all the guys that I've played with before. I just want to win. I think that's the most important category for a quarterback is how many wins you have, and that's all I want to do.

On if he ever thought he would be the all-time leading touchdown passer at Texas: You dream about those things as a kid and now some of those things are coming true, and I have another year to play. My eyes are looking forward, they're focused on Arkansas. Like I said, the plan is to win.

On losing TE Blaine Irby: It's a tough loss for Blaine, Blaine's a great friend. We feel sorry for him but we've got to move forward, and he would say the same thing. We've got to find a way to win, and I think we'll be fine. We've just got to keep doing what we're doing, execute, we have full faith and confidence in the coaches to have a plan. We'll be ready.

I like the look on Colt McCoy's face in the Harry Cabluck photo from the Associated Press right after he plowed into a Rice defender on his way to a touchdown in the 52-10 victory Saturday.

It's as though he's saying, "Please don't get in my way again." You notice, Colt said "please" because he's a nice guy.

The defender on the right looks as though he's saying, "Oh no, you didn't just do that to my bud."

I wish I could see the expression on the defender Colt just smashed into (Sendejo). He's probably thinking something like, "Hey, I thought you were a quarterback."

Anyone who still questions Colt's toughness after that play and a couple of other gutsy runs is just in a state of denial.

They always do, but then they generally get covered up by the main dish - a heaping serving of beef.

The Longhorns will host the Owls at 6 p.m. Saturday, and for those of you with the right cable or satellite provider, you can see it on Fox Sports Network.

BTW: There was a Colt McCoy sighting in Abilene this past weekend. His little brother Chance plays for Abilene Christian University, and the Wildcats hosted Texas A&M Commerce in a wild, 45-14 victory. Chance made his first appearance for 2-0 ACU, but he didn't crack the box score.

BTW2: Here's what Colt said about Rice earlier in the week:

"They're really good. They have the same coaches from last year, so we can kind of watch the film from last year and see what they did against us. But we just have to have a good week of practice. Like I said, they play the same type of structure as Arkansas, so last week's preparation will almost be the same for (Rice). They have a pretty good secondary. They have a lot of guys coming back, so we'll just have to be on point."

"I watched it (last year's Rice game) the other day. I watched myself playing, thinking why did I do some things like that. We caught a lot of lucky breaks last year. I think we threw four touchdowns but at the same time, there were some bad throws. You can use that as a learning tool. I'm sure we'll run a lot of the same stuff. We just have to be on point and stay consistent."

It'll probably be raining pretty heavily in Austin on Saturday, so this is a good call for all concerned.

However, I hope it doesn't break Colt McCoy's rhythm. He was definitely in the groove, and four warm-up games before Colorado would've been better than three. It's now just the Rice Owls between the Horns and the Buffs.

Oh, well ... let's just hope Ike runs out of steam before he hits Texas and/or Louisiana.

Of course, he got an "A-plus" last week against FAU, so ... for this semester he is averaging an "A." Can't complain about that.

His only blemish in the 42-13 victory was that interception on a pass play that is a "sure thing" for Quan Cosby, but sometimes a little "iffy" with anyone else. Prior to that he came close a couple of times to throwing a pick. But not bad for someone playing past his bedtime. Seven TDs and one INT so far. Not a bad ratio.

The Horns play their first "Tier 1" team next weekend when Arkansas comes to town. Of course, the Razorbacks are a shell of the team they were in 2007, and they've had to rally late in their first two games this year to steal wins against "Tier 3" teams (Western Illionois and Louisiana-Monroe).

Texas returns to the "normal" time and place for a college ballgame - 2:30 p.m. Saturday on ABC. That's more like it.

Colt is hitting 75.8 percent of his passes for more than 500 yards, and he is scrambling better and wiser than anytime in his career.

He's making the grade just fine, and for the maturity level he's showing, I'm also giving him a big checkmark next to "citizenship."

You gotta give the Miners some props for a clever T-shirt (below), but I think a big ol' burnt orange brand is going to be on the other mascot.

Following is the game capsule from the Associated Press. Here's what the AP says about the game in a nutshell: "Another tune-up for heavily favored Texas before the start of the Big 12. For Texas-El Paso, it's the biggest game in program history -- by far -- and an upset would pull the Miners out of the shadows of the Franklin Mountains."

Key Matchup

Texas DTs Roy Miller and Aaron Lewis vs. UTEP center Robby Felix. Lewis is getting the start in place of suspended Lamarr Houston. He and Miller will work against Felix, who was on the preseason watch list for the Rimington Trophy given to the nation's top center. If Felix gets pushed around, it will be a long night for UTEP.

Players to watch

Texas: QB Colt McCoy, who passed for more than 200 yards and ran for more than 100 in season-opening win over Florida Atlantic. He and Vince Young are the only Texas QBs to have multiple 200-100 games in school history.

UTEP: QB Trevor Vittatoe, who threw three interceptions in season-opening loss to Buffalo after throwing just seven in 2007.

Facts & Figures

When these teams last met in the 1930s, UTEP was still known as the College of the Mines.

Texas blocked a punt last week, its first since 2006. Even with that drought, the Longhorns have blocked 49 kicks since 2000, the most in the nation over that span.

New Texas defensive coordinator Will Muschamp might be the most entertaining Longhorn to watch. The animated and fiery Muschamp got a bloody face last week when he accidentally cut himself on the left cheek during the game.

Not only did Colt McCoy have a great start to 2008, he joined Vince Young in an elite Longhorn list of two.

Both he and Young have run for 100 yards and passed for 200 in more than one game. That's two for Colt and 5 for Vince. Maybe Colt will tie his "old" mentor before the end of the season.

I suppose you've heard that Colt was named Big 12 Offensive Player of the Week for his efforts against FAU last Saturday. Even though he didn't get as many passing yards as Graham Harrell of Texas Tech, he was indeed impressive in all facets under center.

I bet Colt's hot hand follows him to El Paso. The "step-brother" school has no problem playing tough against the 'Horns, but I can't believe they'll stymie Colt and company that much.

Colt is already sixth on UT's all-time total offense list. Just think about who is on that list and where Colt will rank on it at the end of the season.

How much better of a start could Colt McCoy have had to the season?

His team won, 52-10, and he completed 24 of 29 passes for 222 yards and three touchdowns.

He was also the leading rusher with 103 yards on 12 carries and another TD.

Florida Atlantic University players also delivered three late hits on McCoy, but they didn't seem to phase him. The Owls liked to talk tough before the game, but looks like they don't know how to play tough within the rules.

Oh, and just for good measure, McCoy also punted once for 44 yards.

I think the look of confidence on Colt's face (Harry Cabluck's photo from the Associated Press) says it all.