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Getting drier

It is Thursday afternoon and I am very concerned about the weather pattern and its potential to produce rain around Kansas City. The next system due in around Tuesday of next week will be another test. The past two storms went north and then south on the second one today. It will be quite interesting to see what happens with next weeks storm system. The GFS 500 mb flow is forecasted to dive the energy right overhead Tuesday night. Look below. If this happens then it could go by dry and we would have to wait another week for rain. But, perhaps it will dig in further west.

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Posted by at 2:52 PM | Comments (2)

Windy & Drizzle

It is rare to have such windy conditions and drizzle at the same time. This is what has happened late this afternoon and evening. Add in the fact that the wind is from the west and this is even more rare.

Anyway, the storm system that is now moving by has produced tornadoes today north and east of our region. Tornado season, for us, can not be far away. The next storm may bring us clouds Friday, but it should stay dry. We have received some comments with concerns about our dry spell. For the year we are still above average rainfall and I expect this trend to continue. We are in a 75 day cycle. There are long stretches where it seems like we will be dry, but then the storm systems return to the west and southwest. I am anticipating a few of these soon.

Gary

Posted by at 5:08 PM | Comments (1)

It is time to Blog

We just discussed our new Weather Blog on the 6 PM newscast. Let us know what you think.

Weatherwise, the pattern we are in is not a good one for precipitation. We will have a lot of wind, but we are expecting it to stay dry for a while.

More later.....

Gary Lezak and Jeff Penner

Posted by at 6:22 PM | Comments (6)

Drying out

A windy day is in the forecast for Tuesday. The pressure gradient is tightening and a storm is approaching. Often, at this time of year, storm systems pass by with no rain, just a lot of wind. This looks to be the case in the storm that is approaching. With the wind and warmer weather the ground will be drying out. We see some chances for rain, but perhaps not for another 7 or 10 days.

Gary Lezak

Posted by at 5:24 PM | Comments (3)

A Real Taste of Spring!

We are starting off chilly with temperature into the mid 30s this morning... this is mainly due to clear skies and light winds. These are the perfect conditions for what we call "radiational cooling". Without clouds or wind, any "heat of the day" is able to escape rapidly back into the atmosphere. When we have clouds, they help to hold the "heat" in. HERE is a good explanation of what is going on.

BUT the lack of clouds plays in our favor this afternoon! With sunshine and southwest winds increasing... our temperatures are going to soar into the 70s! We will be well above our average high of 59 degrees.

Tuesday looks warm, too, with a 70s repeat... it also looks windy! Winds will continue out of the southwest, gusting to 30 mph!

Tuesday night a storm will be approaching us, bringing a *slight* chance of showers and thunderstorms overnight into Wednesday morning. Not a whole lot of moisture here... so we'll see. But we're still seeing the chance of rain for Thursday!

Enjoy the great weather ahead!
Jamie

Posted by at 5:42 AM | Comments (1)

Warmer this week!

Everybody is asking, "when is it going to warm up for spring?" The answer... THIS WEEK. We'll start off a little chilly Monday morning, but during the afternoon we'll warm up significantly! With mostly sunny skies and a strong soutwest flow developing at the surface... our highs will be into the lower 70s!

Tuesday could be even warmer... we may be into the *upper* 70s in some places!

Several things we are watching this week. One is a cold front that will come through late Tuesday. Here is the NAM (old ETA) model for Tuesday evening. You're looking at the surface/precipitation forecast:

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And the GFS model for the same time period:

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As you can see, there is not a whole lot of moisture showing up on the models. I have left rain out of the forecast until Wednesday... but even then it is iffy.

THEN The GFS develops a storm over the Plains on Thursday... that could be another shot of rain for us. Here is what it could look like:

Click to enlarge

We'll watch it and update you as we get more data! Enjoy the warmer temperatures this week!
Jamie

Posted by at 4:16 PM

The Sun Returns!

The sun will be back out on Easter Sunday... eventually! We will start off with clouds around, but they should break up as we go through the day. Areas to the North will see the sun first, and the cloud deck will slowly erode from North to South.

For that reason, cities farther North will see higher temperatures (upper 50s), as the sun will have more time to warm them! Counties to the South (Bates, Henry, Pettis) will stay cloudy the longest... so you'll see cooler temps (around 50). You MAY even see a passing morning shower here.

But once the sun comes out... it is here to stay for awhile! It's still looking like a BIG warm-up early next week. Our surface winds will become southerly, and the winds higher up in the atmosphere (around 5,000 feet) will have a westerly componenet. This combination can bring us a HUGE rise in temperature.


Click to enlarge

The image above is the 850mb temperature forecast from the GFS. It shows the warmer air in the KC area Tuesday morning! A taste of the 70s as we start the week... but a mid-week storm could have temperatures falling a bit... stay tuned!

Happy Easter!
Jamie

Posted by at 6:19 PM

Low Clouds, A Storm & A Big Warm-Up!

The storm from yesterday has left a snail's trails of low clouds across the Plains. These will be tough to break. However by Easter Sunday they should move on.

Speaking of Easter Sunday, a potent, wet storm will pass 200-300 miles southeast of KC. This means wet & cold weather, maybe some snow will occur along and south of the I-44 corridor. Northwest Missouri will have mostly sunny skies as subsidence (downward motion) away from the storm will help to break up the low clouds in place.

After the storm leaves the Midwest, a southwest flow at the surface will take over. This means early next week we will have a huge warm-up as spring gets its act togteher.

See the visible satellite below from Friday afternoon. Notice, how we are stuck in the middle of a huge area of low clouds.

Posted by at 4:25 PM

Drizzle & Fog

On this Good Friday, we're not really seeing GOOD weather. It's another rainy, foggy start! As the main storm works south of KC today, we stay with a chance of light rain or drizzle through the early afternoon. While we will dry out later in the day, we won't see much in the way of sunshine. Combine the clouds with cooler air moving in, and temperatures will not climb at all today! Highs will be in the lower 40s.

We're STILL watching the weekend storm. Look how close it is to us! Below is the GFS model for Sunday morning.


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This is a look at the 500 mb vorticity. The yellow/orange areas you see are areas of greater vorticity. An eddy of vorticity spins like a low pressure--counterclockwise. This counterclockwise spin-up causes the air to rise downwind from the vorticity maximum. That rising air can form clouds and precipitation... if there is enough moisture.

And in this case, the "vort max" is JUST too far south to bring us any precipitation... but it is CLOSE!! Check out the GFS surface map and precipitation forecast:

Click to enlarge

We are RIGHT on the edge of this storm. Any further track north and we would be getting rain or snow. We will keep an eye on it, and Gary will have an update tonight!

There is a big warm-up next week... hang in there!
Jamie

Posted by at 5:13 AM

Thursday night drizzle

Drizzle has formed this evening as warm air is trying to move in. The warm air will not make it as the rain falls. Friday, as the storm moves by, will see a cold front come through with some drizzle or light rain continuing. Temperatures may fall into the 30s. Some snowflakes may fall as well. But, no accumulation.

The next storm will likely track south and west of Kansas City, but only a slight turn to the north and it could rain or snow this weekend. More on this later.

Gary

Posted by at 6:26 PM

Showers Today!

Rain is moving into the Metro this morning, as warmer air is lifting northward. Everyone will see a good shot of rain early today, with a break in the precip as we go into the afternoon. However, through the day a chance of showers or thunderstorms will be with us, as we will be watching for new development. The reason for the spring showers... a storm that will move just SOUTH of Kansas City. Here is what it looks like on the morning surface map:

Click to enlarge

And as always, check out LIVE TRIPLE ACTION DOPPLER for a look at where the storms are right NOW!

Still tracking another storm as we head into the weekend. The models are pretty consistent in taking this feature well south of KC. Right now it looks like we will be dry and partly sunny for both Saturday and the Easter holiday. Here is a look at the ETA (NAM) model for Sunday morning:


Click to Enlarge

Notice the storm is way south of us. That means those Easter egg hunts should be DRY!!

Take along the umbrella today, though...
Jamie

Posted by at 5:24 AM

Answer for Glenn

Glenn,

It looks like the storm will stay south of Missouri. It will be a close call for the I-44 corridor, but the model trend is south.

The models we use are the GFS, ETA & NGM. The link below will connect you to the site we use.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/

Posted by at 9:17 PM

Strange Thursday Forecast

We may have a cloudy cool Thursday. Drizzle is possible and there is a chance of a thunderstorm or two. Temperatures will stay in the 50s at the most. Warm moist air is moving north and there is a warm front setting up south of us. The warm front will likely stay near the Oklahoma/Kansas border. This will result in our cloudy day. The next storm looks like it will track far enough south to keep our weekend dry for Easter.

Posted by at 9:10 PM

A weekend storm?

First of all, Chris asks why did it snow today? A strong storm took a perfect track across the Oklahoma/Kansas border this afternoon. If it would have been just slightly colder we would have had 3 to 5 inches of accumulation, but instead it was just cold enough to get the rain to mix and change to snow for a few hours.

Here is a link to LIVE TRIPLE ACTION DOPPLER for the latest on where the precipitation is falling.

We are now watching another storm system that could affect us this weekend. Remember we are in the 75 day cycle that started in October and November. So, this storm somewhat fits into the pattern. I always wonder if the late March version of one of our winter storms may act differently. If this storm acts similarly to the ones in early January then we will likely be missed as the storm just won't get its act together. However, only a slight difference and we could have one last major winter event around Kansas City. Right now the latest GFS (18z run) has us in a snowstorm Saturday. We will see if it is still showing up tomorrow.

Click to enlarge
Above is the 108 hour GFS Surface map. It shows the 540 thickness, in blue, which is the dividing line between snow and rain. You can see how even if this is correct it is marginally snow here.

Have a great day,

Gary

Posted by at 6:58 PM | Comments (1)

Spring Showers

I hope you enjoyed the first day of Spring! It was pretty seasonable, with temperatures running right around normal--in the mid-50s.

Did you notice the high clouds moving in this evening? They are a sign of things to come... rain is on the way! It looks like rain will be with us for Monday and Tuesday as a slow-moving storm comes out of the Plains. There is some question as to what time the rain will START... but right now it looks like we could see a few showers in the morning, with the better chance coming Monday afternoon and overnight. The storm will track just soutwest of Kansas City, and some of us could see an inch or so of rain by the end of it all on Tuesday. There is also a chance of a few thunderstorms, and if we see any, we could also see locally higher precip amounts! Below is the rainy solution of the ETA for Tuesday morning.


Click to Enlarge

You can check out LIVE TRIPLE ACTION DOPPLER to see where the rain is falling RIGHT NOW! Don't forget the umbrella!
Jamie

Posted by at 7:40 PM | Comments (1)

A Rainstorm Around the Corner

It has been dry for the last 5 weeks, with some areas around eastern Kansas and western Missouri seeing just .25" of rain. Well, help is on the way. A storm now forming in the Rockies will head in to the Plains Sunday night and slow down. This means eastern Kansas and western Missouri have the potential of a long duration soaking rain. Right now it looks like at least .50" to 1" of rain, if not 2" to 3" of rain, from Sunday night through Tuesday. See below, the models prediction for total rainfall from Sunday night through Tuesday. There is a 3" bullseye just southwest of KC. This bullseye could end up anywhere, this is just the models prediciton.

Posted by at 8:03 PM

What Storm??

You would never really know it, but a storm passed through Kansas City today! The main energy of the storm went north of KC--through Iowa... but it's trailing cold front passed through the Metro this late afternoon. Ahead of the system, temperatures soared into the lower 60s with strong south winds.

But it's a different story on the backside of the storm. The winds have shifted from the Northwest... that means cooler air is headed our way! Temperatures will fall quickly this evening, and it will be a cold night with lows in the upper 20s.

Saturday will be cooler, too... but dry! Sunday we'll see a warm-up ahead of our NEXT system. This next one looks like a better CHANCE of rain, unlike the past few storms we've dealt with. Remember a few posts ago, when two models weren't matching up on their solutions?? We ended up seeing NOTHING at all! Well this time, those same two models are matching up! Take a look below! These are for Monday afternoon:

ETA:


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GFS:


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When models agree... there is more confidence in the forecast! It looks like it could be a nice rainy day on Monday... we haven't seen *measurable* rain since March 6th. While some of us want it to rain for the lawn's sake... I recently got an email from a farmer in Kansas. He says his fields are still VERY moist... and that he does NOT need the rain right now! Interesting how different things can be from one place to the next...

Don't forget a jacket tonight... it's going to get chilly!
Jamie

Posted by at 5:44 PM

We Could Use Some Rain!

Officially, at KCI, since February 14th we have had just .26" of rain. So far this week a storm passed to our south, one is going to our north Friday. There is another wet storm we are watching for early next week. Right now, this one looks like it will go to our south. The one for next week is not set in stone. It could come further north and give us some needed rain. Below we will show the total forecasted rainfall for next week from our latest long range computer data.

Click to enlarge

Posted by at 9:49 PM

Another miss...

Concering the storm I mentioned in my last entry (see below)... it is missing us completely! So the ETA model handled this situation best, and the GFS slowly did come around and put the whole storm south of KC.

In fact, that storm is producing heavy SNOW south of Kansas City! The panhandle of Texas is seeing some impressive snowfall rates, with almost a foot in the forecast for Amarillo, TX! Since November first, that area has seen 33.2 inches of snow... beating our measly 13 inches at KCI! Below is a radar image from Amarillo this evening... pretty impressive!


(Click to enlarge)

For us, the clouds we've seen today is ALL we'll see from that storm! In fact, as that storm moves east on Wednesday... we'll see more sunshine! And as our flow becomes more southerly, we'll see a nice warm-up by St. Patrick's Day! Temperatures on Thursday will approach 60-degrees... not a bad forecast for the parade!

Jamie & Jeff

Posted by at 8:01 PM

Storm or No Storm??

Another tricky forecast as we go into the thrid week of March! We will be cooler than average, as we are in a transition period. Things really get interesting on Tuesday when a storm system will eject out of the four corners region and head just south of Kansas City. Look at the difference between the models!! Below, is the ETA model for Tuesday evening. It which keeps all the moisture SOUTH of Kansas and Missouri:

If the ETA verifies we won't get anything here at all! But then we turn our attention to the GFS model. This model makes the storm look more impressive... and puts us in significant precipitation:

Which model is right, that is the million dollar question! Right now, we are playing it safe, and going with a combination of the two. We have a 40% chance of measurable precipitation Tuesday into Wednesday.

The next question is will it be rain or snow?? It is a tough call, as during the day, temps will warm above freezing. We could see snow overnight, and rain during the day. This is definitely something to pay attention to... we will update the forecast with new data every day!

Jamie Krumheuer

Posted by at 8:41 PM

Roller Coaster Going Back Down

This March we have seen temperatures on a roller coaster ride. It was 39 on the 1st, 73 on the 6th, in the 40s on the 8th & 9th and back in to the 60s the last 3 days. The reason this has occurred is that we have been in the middle of an oscillating temperature gradient across the Plains (see highs Saturday below). It looks like we will settle in to the colder air the next 5-7 days. The pattern is changing as we will not only be colder, but see more clouds with increasing precipitation chances. This Tuesday in to Wednesday we have to watch closely as the atmosphere will be set-up for a snowstorm. However, the energy aloft is disorganized. So, most likely we will see maybe some light rain or snow, but at this moment it does not look like a big storm.

Posted by at 8:10 PM

50/50 Weekend

And by 50/50... I am talking about temperatures. We will have one warm day, followed by a cooler day, as a cold front will have cooler air rushing into the region.

The forecast for Saturday is a tricky one, mainly because the aformentioned front will be sitting RIGHT over us for a part of the day. Cooler air will be north of the front, and those south of the front will enjoy another warm day with highs in the mid to upper 60s. Then things change on Sunday as we will ALL be north of the front, and will only see highs in the upper 40s to near 50 degrees.

The forecast gets a little interesting next week as a pretty good storm system shoots our way. The map below is the GFS model, looking out to midnight, this coming Wednesday.

Right now it looks pretty impressive... but that is subject to change, of course! It will be something we keep our eye on over the next several days... so stay tuned!

Enjoy the weekend!
Jamie

Posted by at 5:52 PM

Deceiving Cold Fronts

A cold front moved through today, but Friday will not be that much colder. A 2nd front will move through Friday evening, but Saturday will be unseasonably warm. A 3rd cold front moves through Saturday evening. This one is more normal, as Sunday will be much colder.

Why are the first 2 fronts acting so strange? They are moving so fast, that the cold air never gets a chance to settle in. As a matter of fact a strong warm front will pass Saturday morning. The fast moving fronts also do not have a chance to pick up much moisture. Hence, just a few light showers may accompany eah front. The image below shows today's and Friday's front. Notice, Friday's front is 1500 miles north of us. It will arrive tomorrow. This is a real fast mover.

Posted by at 5:55 PM

Battle in the Plains

The fight is between warm and cold air, and Kansas City is right in the middle! Arctic air will lie to our northeast, while unseasonably warm air will be to our southwest. We will get little "tastes" of each airmass, but will never fully tap into them.

This time of year, this pattern (northwest flow) is generally dry (see image below...click to enlarge).

However, in May or June, this could repeat and it would be very stormy... due to the abundance of Gulf Moisture.

A couple of cold fronts will pass through this week... Thursday and again on Friday... but without the moisture, a light shower is all we would expect.

There are some indications that next week, we could see temperatures running ten to twenty degrees below average... and the possiblity remains for one last winter storm! Below is the GFS model surface map for March 17th, just click to enlarge!

The colors you see are precipitation amounts... see the key on the left. Blue means a half to three quarters of an inch liquid. Also notice the dashed lines in blue and red... near KC, our "thickness" is 534 dm. This means the atmosphere is cold enough to support snow!

Stay tuned!

Jamie

Posted by at 7:56 PM

March Madness

The weather pattern is going through its cycle. We believe that there is a 75 day cycle this year. 75 days ago we were in a pattern very similar to where we are today. This is why we can look into the future (the next 10 days) with confidence and be able to let you know what may happen with the weather. Even if the computer models are not saying it we can be able to explain where the computer models are likely wrong. With this said, it appears that a strong storm will be developing sometime next week with Arctic air to our north and a spring like airmass to our south. This places us in the middle. It is too early to tell if we will see, rain, freezing rain, or snow. Thunderstorms could occur as well. We do think this will be a big weather maker for areas near by before March 20th.

In the mean time we are in northwest flow aloft. Storm systems are diving our way from the north and northwest. They come with a lot of clouds, but not much precipitation. One of these disturbances is going to pass by Tuesday night and early Wednesday. It will be cold enough to snow. But will it? More on this Tuesday.

Posted by at 5:42 PM | Comments (1)

Fast-Moving Systems

We are tracking 2 fast-moving systems the next 5 days. One is due in Tuesday night. This may bring a period of rain or snow or maybe even a T-Storm. In most years this type of system, called an Alberta Clipper", would produce accumulating snow in our area. However, the way this year has gone it will come through disorganized and any precipitation will be light or rain as it may be too warm at the surface. There is a 2nd system Thursday. This will bring a quick warm up followed by a cool down and maybe a shower or T-Storm.

Posted by at 4:16 PM

Stormy Night

What a day... a lot like a spring day! This afternoon, with strong southwest winds and plenty of sunshine, we saw temperatures climb into the lower 70s! Officially we made it up to 73 degrees, exactly what we predicted for today! That reading was only two degrees shy of tying our record high for this date (75 degrees). But a georgeous afternoon, anyway you look at it!

Bobbi Burkett of Leavenworth sent us this picture as clouds began to build this afternoon:

Those clouds developed into thunderstorms tonight! We have some colder air moving in from the northwest, and the storms are ahead of that leading edge. We've seen reports of gusty winds and small hail. Jeff Penner called in and said a quarter inch of hail fell in his neighborhood, and the entire ground was white! The hail was pea-sized, though, so nothing severe. But pretty impressive, nonetheless! All of the severe storms stayed north of us tonight... in Nebraska and Iowa. You can take a look at storm reports on the Storm Predicion Center's website.

The storms will continue overnight, but by sunrise we should be drying out. We'll probably see a little sunshine early on, but as even colder air works in Monday afternoon... we'll cloud up again. There is a chance for a sprinkle during the day, and temperatures will top out early near 50 degrees before falling. It will be WINDY, with northwest winds howlling in at 15-20 mph, and gusting higher.

Winter's not over yet!!
Jamie

Posted by at 11:06 PM

SUPER Sunday...

Good evening!
We were a bit cooler today, with temperatures in the mid-50s this afternoon. This is thanks to high pressure, that settled in from the north. We're still above normal though, with our average high at 50 degrees.

And expect a huge jump in temperatures tomorrow! Get ready for a fabulous day! As our winds shift in out of the West-Southwest, we'll also see a downslope flow, which will help push our highs into the lower 70s! Wow! Look for mostly sunny skies in the morning, with a few more afternoon clouds.

Then on Monday, a cold front will pass through. While the day will start off mild, we could see falling temperatures through the afternoon. There is a slight, and I mean slight, chance of morning showers. Here is a look at what will be happening Monday morning:

You can see most of the moisture is East of Kansas City.

As yet another disturbance works our way on Tuesday... there is a chance we could see rain or (gasp!) SNOW Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. We'll have to keep an eye on this one!

Stay tuned! Enjoy the super Sunday weather!
Jamie

Posted by at 7:39 PM

Ridges and Troughs

A few posts ago, Jason asked: "What is the difference between a ridge and a trough?" (this can be found under the "comments" link)

Ridges, are basically elongated areas of high atmospheric pressure. You will see high pressure on surface maps, represented by a big blue H.

I call high pressure our "fair weather friend" because we tend to see quiet weather when we are dominated by a strong high. Clear to partly cloudy skies are usually the rule.

When the ridge occurs at higher altitudes, it can still affect our weather here at the surface.

Ridges can act as "blocking" mechanisms if they are strong enough... kind of acting as a shield, as storms cannot penetrate them.

Upper level ridges can bring warm spells in the winter months, and also very hot weather in the summertime. These ridges are shown on weather maps as air moving north, then south. In the image below, there is a strong ridge over the western US.

On the other side of things... that same image above has a large trough over the eastern half of the country. Troughs are represented by air digging south and then turning north on an upper level weather map.

And a trough is the exact opposite of a ridge... it's an elongated area of relatively low atmospheric pressure. On the surface map, we see the big red "L" as low pressure.

When we're stuck in a trough, we expect cooler than normal temperatures... and sometimes active weather. The coldest air in a trough is on the West side of the trough... and the clouds and rain/snow are typically on the East side!

Hope that answers your question!
Jamie

Posted by at 5:42 PM | Comments (1)

March Madness

A weak disturbance tracking southeast across Nebraska along with a weak front just north of Kansas City is responsible for our current scattered showers & T-Storms. This disturbance will be well east of the area tonight, setting the stage for a great stretch of weather.

Basically, the next 5-7 days will see plenty of sunshine with highs alternating between the 50s & near 70 every other day.

When is our next chance of widespread precipitation? We are seeing the potential for a more active pattern March 11-20. Rain, ice or snow will all be possible. See map below. This is a forecast of the jet stream in 10 days (240 hours from now). It shows a deep trough in the western USA. This could be a wet storm around the 15th.

Posted by at 3:46 PM

A Nice Day... BUT....

Good afternoon, hope you are enjoying the Magnificent March weather!

Todays highs have made it into the lower 60s. It has not been 70 degrees since November 17th of last year, but we will make at least two runs at 70 soon: Friday and again on Sunday.

A weak upper level disturbance is moving by this evening, bringing the slight chance of a passing shower or thunderstorm. Here is a look at the latest RADAR.

Besides these few wet spots... the dry weather pattern will continue for the next few days as our flow aloft is from the northwest.

A cold front will be approaching by the middle of next week, and we are noticing a possible shift in the weather pattern by the END of next week!

Jamie & Gary

Posted by at 3:07 PM | Comments (1)