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Isentropic WHAT?
Good Saturday evening to you!
I hope you got to enjoy the nice weather today! Temperatures climbed into the mid 70s, with an official high of 76 degrees. We got to see some sunshine... but along with the warmer air moving in... we had some clouds, too. Some of you even reported a few light sprinkles... for others, the clouds may just have looked really dark.
The increase in clouds and the light precip is actually from a phenomenon called "isentropic lift". This happens when warm air is moving into a region. The warm air on the move has a tendency to want to STAY at the same density.
Cold air is more dense... so it sinks to the surface and resists being lifted up. The warmer air moves on TOP of the cold air because that warmer air is less dense.
I was playing around in "Paint" tonight and came up with this diagram... yes, that blob in the sky is a cloud. Please, no laughing! :)
Click to enlarge
The amount of moisture in the air will determine how HEAVY and how MUCH precip we would see. Today we just saw sprinkles. However, with higher moisture content sometimes we get a day-long light rain event as higher values of moisture will lead to higher rainfall when the air is lifted.
ON TO THE FORECAST!!
We are still tracking a storm that will start to affect us Sunday night. It is a very slow-mover... so it will continue to bug us through mid-week! Right now, the models are in pretty good agreement to bring the showers and thunderstorms in Sunday night. Here is a look at the NAM model for that timeframe:
Click to enlarge
Notice there is a squall line that has developed... that will be moving our way... but the strongest storms in that line look to be SOUTH of KC. We will keep an eye on it, though!
Next is the break in the precip we look to be getting Monday afternoon. Here is how it is shaping up to look around 1pm:
Click to enlarge
But with daytime heating comes an increase in instability. That could cause additional showers and thunderstorms to pop up late Monday afternoon and into the evening. It really depends on how much sunshine we see, as that will really get the convective process going! Any afternoon storms also have the potential to be strong... so stay tuned!
Now that I have written a novel...
Jamie :)
Posted by at April 9, 2005 7:51 PM
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The Weather blog is a great thing you all have set up. I love meteorology but never pursued it in College. I storm chase and take video and pictures to fullfill my weather obsession. This a great resource to use when Severe weather is near and to learn about other things weather related as well. I have always trusted Gary Lezak in forecasting the weather and now Jamie and the rest of the weather crew I'm sure will do just as good of a job. Keep up the great work.
STEVE:
Thanks for the nice comments!! Don't hesitate to contact us with your severe weather reports or weather photos! weather@nbcactionnews.com
Jamie
Posted by: Steve K at April 10, 2005 12:01 AM
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hello, i am lauren and i am 12 years old i am absoultly obsessed with weather. i am terrified of severe stroms and espeacialy tornadoes. i love your weather. i always listen to you guys. i just wanted to know if the storms tonight and tommrow will be bad. i live in st. joe. thank you for reading this!
sincerly,
Lauren
LAUREN:
Hi, and thanks for writing to us! We are so happy you love weather as much as we do! It is understandable that severe storms and tornadoes would scare you... as they can be very dangerous! The best thing you can do to stay safe when storms strike is to HAVE A PLAN!
At school, you probably have tornado drills every once in awhile, where everyone files into a safe place, away from windows... right?
Well, you should have a similar plan at home... and you should practice it, too! The safest place from tornadoes is the lowest level of your home. If you don't have a basement... an inner bathroom or closet on your ground floor is a good place to go. The key here is to put as many walls between you and the storm as you can!
As for our storms tonight, some of them could be strong... but we are not expecting any widespread severe weather. The main threat with these storms today has been large hail. We will keep you posted of any watches or warnings! If you would like to keep an eye on things yourself, you can check out the Storm Prediction Center's website:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/
Stay safe... and thanks for watching!
Jamie :)
Posted by: lauren at April 10, 2005 3:44 PM
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This weather blog is such a cool idea! I have always been fascinated by stormy weather and am interested in photographing storms this spring. I think last year Gary had mentioned some storm spotting classes in the metro area and wanted to know where and when I might attend one. I'd love to learn how to safely track storms as well as possibly hook up with some experienced spotters. Any idea where I can find out more about this? I looked on NOAA's site but didnt see anything. Thanks very much - and keep up the great forecasts!
ALEX:
To find out about storm spotter training classes, contact the National Weather Service in Pleasant Hill. I believe they are finished with classes for this season, but there's always next year!
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/eax/Spotter2005.htm
Jamie :)
Posted by: Alex at April 10, 2005 8:38 PM
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I heard you say tonight at 10pm talking about the "beneficial rain" I was wondering what was benefiting from the rain.
We farm for a living and live and die with weather and accurate forecasts. Currently it's been too wet for some fields to even be worked to plant, others are barely marginal. If it didn't rain for another week it would be fine. Then maybe a 1/2 inch of rain and another week of dry weather.
I see nothing that is benefiting from the rain we're getting now. The subsoil is completely saturated. Nothing is suffering from being too dry. I believe the only thing that shows we need water is the rainfall records for April which don't take in to account that it's been wet enough to float a battle ship in the fields since late October last fall.
Take Care,
Ray
Ray,
There are some areas that have really dried out. So, this is what I was thinking when we said beneficial rain. You stated that you would need 1/2" or so in a week. So, this must mean you were just getting to the point where it could benefit you too.
Gary
HI RAY:
I received an email from another farmer with the same problem... soggy fields! Most of the people in town are actually needing the rain... things have been pretty dry here. It is interesting to see how different things can be in different areas.
Jamie
Posted by: Ray at April 10, 2005 10:53 PM
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