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COOL & DRY

The trend continues... cool and dry the next couple of days. We still have the chance for patchy frost tonight and early Sunday morning. A better chance, as skies clear, Sunday night into Monday morning. And believe it or not, but 30s are STILL in the forecast early Tuesday morning.

We are being influenced by a cold, Canadian HIGH. See the surface map below:

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Notice the high pressure center over the Texas panhandle. That high actually extends all the way into Canada... I have drawn in the high over northern Montana. This feature is helping to pump in the cooler air.

It's also going to keep us dry for quite awhile. Here is the GFS precipitation forecast for the next 60 hours... taking us through Monday evening:

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We are completely dry! And here is the next 60 hours... taking us to Thursday morning:

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Still, no rain! We are a little over an INCH below normal on precip since the beginning of April. For awhile, it was still a little soggy out in the rural areas... but I just spoke with one farmer who is now needing the rain! Next storm looks to be heading our way next weekend. We'll keep an eye on it!

Happy Watering!
Jamie

Posted by at 4:43 PM

All we need is a decent storm....

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Above you will see the 500 mb flow, or the flow at 18,000 feet up in the atmosphere. There is a disturbance, characterized by the X in southern Kansas. The trend has been for this disturbance to be weaker and weaker as it approaches. If it is any weaker than depicted today then we may not get much rain at all. Just a little stronger we could end up with a half inch of rain or more. This frustrating weather continues.

Today, Stormy and I went to the Town Pavillion downtown for bring your child to work day. Stormy did a great job of entertaining. Windy stayed at home as she is now retired and 15 1/2 years old.

Gary

Posted by at 6:27 PM | Comments (1)

Two storm systems

Two storm systems are heading our way. You may hear some weather enthusiasts call a thunderstorm a storm. It is in some respects, but I still call them thunderstorms because of the "storm" that is heading our way. The storm may produce thunderstorms.

Storm #1 will move across the region Thursday, with stronger storm #2 moving across Friday. Rain and thunderstorms will be likely with both storm systems, but how much rain will fall. I am expecting average rainfall amounts of one inch. It is too cool for tornadoes, but there may be some hail. More later.....

Gary Lezak

Posted by at 8:02 PM | Comments (5)

Thunderstorms soon?

A strong baroclinic zone will set up across Kansas Wednesday night through Friday. Only a weak storm is needed to cause thunderstorm formation. So, will we have any rain? Yesterday it looked certain. Today it is backing away. Very frustrating again! What is a baroclinic zone? A baroclinic zone is a frontal zone, or an area of strong temperature contrast. Thursday could see highs in the 40s in Kansas and 90s in Oklahoms. The baroclinic zone is the tight contrast in temperatures. This is often the region where a larger scale storm develops.

Gary

Posted by at 5:41 PM | Comments (5)

Could more rain be on the way?

Rain started falling late this morning and then picked up this evening as a cold front moved through. We are really between two jet streams with a southern branch south of us and a northern branch north of us. The northern branch of the jet stream is taking over for the next two days. Cold air aloft may create enough instability to form a few light showers on Tuesday. Then the northern branch will retrogress westward and combine with the southern branch jet stream and bring us some chances for rain at the end of the week.

It is about one week from now when the set up could bring us some widespread rainfall. We will monitor this closely. Below you can see the forecast 60 hour rainfall total for Tuesday through Thursday of next week, the first few days of May. It may get very wet soon. Confidence is still shaky however.

Click to enlarge (60 hour total rainfall for May 3 through May 5th)

Posted by at 7:58 PM

Showers Monday

It looks like a pretty good chance of showers for us as we go into the beginning of the week. Right now, it looks like the rain will hold off until the afternoon and evening hours. Below is the NAM model forecast for Monday evening.

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We will be influenced by a storm system to our South... the Low Pressure center over Texas. A cold front approaching from the North will provided additional lift. Rainfall amounts look light, though... with forecast totals from a trace to a quarter of an inch. The heaviest rain and best chance for thunderstorms should remain south of Kansas City. We may here a rumble of thunder, but the best instability will be south!

Below is the GFS model for Monday evening. It is showing relative humidity (the brightest blue is 100% RH, or very moist... while the darkest purple is less than 10%, or very dry).

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Notice we have moisture in place over KC. But we are lacking major instability. The areas that are shaded in black represent negative Showalter Indexes... or areas with higher instability. Those areas are Southwest Missouri, Southeast Kansas, Eastern Oklahoma, and Western Arkansas.

Most of this week, temperatures will be slightly cooler than normal. Another chance of showers moves in toward the end of the week.

Jamie

Posted by at 8:35 PM

FREEZE WARNING

Happy Saturday evening!

Get ready for a cold night... we have a FREEZE WARNING in effect for the entire viewing area. Temperatures are expected to drop to or below freezing in most locations... as an area of high pressure builds in from the North.

High pressure is our fair weather friend... and will bring us clear skies and light winds overnight. These are prime conditions for "radiational cooling," where the heat of the day rapidly escapes back out into the atmosphere after the sun sets. I will go over this in our 10pm newscast.

A FREEZE WARNING means you need to protect any tender vegetation you might have planted already. The best way to do that is to cover them with a sheet. If your plants are sitting out in pots... bring them in!

While we're dealing with the COLD... at least we're not dealing with the SNOW... like people in Ohio and Michigan! Below is the HPC's forecast for snowfall. It depicts the chance of snow accumulations of four inches or more.

Looks like eastern Michigan and Northeastern Ohio will get the worst of it! I have family in Cleveland... they are all complaining about the late April snow! This comes after a VERY active winter in the Buckeye state! Cleveland actually picked up a record snowfall of over 105 inches!!

Meantime, our area of high pressure will provide plenty of sunshine Sunday afternoon. That will help temperatures warm to near 60 degrees! Not bad after a freezing start!!

We're watching our next storm for MONDAY. It will bring us a chance of showers in the afternoon and evening. Stay tuned for updates!

Jamie :)

Posted by at 5:57 PM | Comments (1)

FREEZE WARNING

It is looking like a late season freeze will occur on Sunday morning. The sky should be clear and with light winds temperatures should drop to record levels and a freeze is likely. Temperatures could drop into the 20s in low lying areas. A lot of people have planted tomatoes outside just a couple of weeks too early.

Yesterday was quite interesting. We had severe weather, flooding and strong winds. Flooding? How could we have any flooding if it has been so dry? Because areas just north and northeast of Kansas City have been getting regular thunderstorms this week.

Our next chance of rain is Monday, but it may go south of us. Jamie will update you over the weekend.

Gary

Posted by at 4:48 PM

Frustrating morning

A band of thunderstorms moved through north of Kansas City early today. Then a complex of thunderstorms formed as it went by to our east. I watered my lawn as this was happening, so maybe it will rain tomorrow (Thursday).

Speaking of Thursday.....Thunderstorms will likely develop to our north and west by sunrise and then drift this way. There is a very good chance we will see rain. The biggest question is how much? I will address these things tonight on the 5, 6, and 10 PM newscast. Below is the forecast rainfall over the next two days. As you can see, just southwest of us almost no rain falls.

click to enlarge

Gary

Posted by at 2:47 PM | Comments (6)

AC or Furnace

The last few days we have been getting use to temperatures in the 70s & 80s. Keep in mind, this is April in the Midwest. It can turn cold this time of year, it can even snow if it wants to...This year it doesn't want to, it could barely snow during the winter.

We are watching a cold front that will be drifting towards us through Thursday. Thursday night the front will sweep through as a storm forms along the front and races east. There is much question on how much rain we will get from this front as most of the storm's energy may stay north. There is not much question that it will be 10-20 degrees colder behind the front. Friday looks mostly cloudy, windy & colder with highs struggling to 60. Friday night the skies will clear with the winds becoming light. This is a recipe for maximum cooling, called "radiational cooling". See the forecast lows for Saturday morning below from our long range computer model, the GFS.
It does not look like a freeze, but some frost is not out of the question with lows dropping to the upper 30s. Note, there may be another cold shot next week.

Click to Enlarge

Posted by at 8:06 PM | Comments (1)

Low Clouds Won't Likely Budge

Good morning,
Wow! It feels like summer! Warm southerly winds kept overnight temps in the mid 60s. The southerly flow is transporting moisture into the area, one in the form of clouds, which you can see if you look right in the middle of the satellite picture below. Low clouds that will likely keep us from warming to near 80 today. More like 74 or maybe even 72. Also, you may notice a more humid feel to the air as we go through tomorrow. That increase in humidity is the moisture that will pool along a frontal boundary that could be the spark for thunderstorms Thursday and Thursday night. Some of us would say we need the rain. Things are getting a little dusty and we are now just about a half inch above average in yearly rainfall. Currently we sit at 7.29 inches for the year.

Have a great day,

Brett Anthony

Posted by at 7:17 AM | Comments (1)

Drifting front

Monday afternoon, and a few showers and thunderstorms have been spotty. Most areas did not have much more than a few drops come down. So, when is our next chance of rain? It will likely come with a drifting cold front/inverted trough combination. A front will likely stall Tuesday to our north and begin a drift southward. It will take two days to get down here and then it will try to lift north, becoming somewhat of an inverted trough on Thursday. Thursday night it should begin a southward motion and turn into a cold front. By this time moisture should have pooled near the front and heavy thunderstorms will be possible. Severe weather will be limited due to weak flow aloft, but there will likely be a few severe thunderstorms to our west and north before the rain moves in Thursday night. Below is the surface forecast map by the new NAM model at 84 hours. This is valid Thursday night at midnight, or early Friday morning.

Click to enlarge

Posted by at 4:35 PM | Comments (1)

Precip Chances Increasing

As we head into the work week, our chances for rain will increase! It was nice to have a warm, dry weekend... but some of us need the rain, too.

Here's what's happening. An upper-level disturbance is over southeastern Colorado tonight. See the GFS below:

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Notice that "x" surrounded by the yellow color in Colorado. THAT is the upper level wave! The GFS model progs it to track through Kansas into southern Nebraska... and eventually into southwest Iowa. Here is the 500mb forecast for 7pm Monday. See the upper wave JUST north of us:

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Because of this passing wave... we could see a few scattered showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening. Most of the moisture will stay northwest of KC... but we may see a little rain here, too! Here is the precip forecast from the GFS:

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Let's also look at the NAM model for the same time period:

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The NAM is painting a similar picture of light accumulations possible by midnight Monday night.

As for Tuesday... we look to be in drier air, but a front will be approaching us Wednesday. That will bring us another round of showers mid-week into week's end.

Jamie

Posted by at 6:00 PM

Weekend ends with a BANG!

After several days wth sunshine and warm temperatures... our weekend will end with a BANG! Highs Sunday will be the warmest yet, into the lower 80s. Check out the temperature forecast from the NAM model below:

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We will see a slow increase in moisture this week, as the Gulf opens up. By mid week, the upper-level flow will look something like this:

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There will be a closed low over the northwest part of the country, with a high pressure ridge in the souteast. Between the two, a frontal boundary will set up at the surface. That front will be the focal-point for shower and thunderstorm development throughout the week. So we will have to keep an eye out for exactly WHERE the front will be! Some of the models put it north of KC... some drop it south. If it ends up being SOUTH... we will be WETTER and COOLER. If it stays NORTH... we will be DRIER and WARMER. Stay tuned...

Meantime, enjoy the beautiful weather we have NOW!!
Jamie :)

Posted by at 5:49 PM | Comments (1)

Less Rain, Good News for Some

T-Storm chances over the weekend will be in about a 100 mile wide band from northwest Kansas to eastern Nebraska. The northwest corner of Missouri may get clipped Saturday night by a few T-Storms.

There may not be much rain the next 5-7 days across eastern Kansas and western Missouri. While, this may not be the best news for your lawn, it is great news for farmers as this is the time of year when they begin corn planting.

Posted by at 5:52 PM

A Wet Saturday Nearby

The weather in eastern Kansas and western Missouri will be very nice through the weekend. However, a front will stall from northwest Kansas to southeast Nebraska Friday into Saturday. This means showers and T-Storms will be 100-200 miles northwest of Kansas City the next 2-3 days. So, the weather this weekend in Omaha will be quite different than the weather in Kansas City.

See the surface forecast map for Saturday below.
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Posted by at 4:21 PM | Comments (1)

Hi, High!

What a great stretch of weather headed into Kansas City. A strong ridge of high pressure will keep its influence on K-C right into the weekend. Look at Saturday morning's surface map and you see that a cold front to our west will stall. The surface high will hold that front at bay right through Sunday helping to keep us warm and dry.

Posted by at 7:02 AM

All Blocked Up

Good morning,
Like a downspout on a house or a hair clogged drain, our weather pattern gets all backed up the rest of the week. A blocking high pressure system called a "Rex Block" takes over into the weekend. In the graphic below note the backward S appearance of the jet stream. A Rex Block sets up typically with a strong high pressure ridge right next to a strong low pressure trough. The air curves around the ridge then around the trough. That means the air flow makes little progress and can mean an extended period of dry, warm weather.
Click to enlarge
Brett

Posted by at 5:04 AM

Severe weather season starting out slow!

Monday, we had some severe thunderstorm activity develop. These thunderstorms formed in a band around the closed low. It only hit 70 degrees but it was very cold aloft creating the unstable conditions. Hail is the only severe weather parameter that occurred. Blown Away Tours, one of our chase teams videotaped a funnel cloud which we showed on the air last night. You can see this by going to our website, www.nbcActionNews.com and clicking on weather then clicking on last nights show (Monday night).

It is going to dry out and severe weather season will be slow to kick in!

Gary

Posted by at 5:44 PM | Comments (5)

Thunderstorms moving northwest

Thunderstorms developed around 2 PM this afternoon near Topeka. I waited a few minutes and then checked movement. These thunderstorms are moving northwest away from us. However, as the sun comes out we may destablize and thunderstorms may form overhead later this afternoon. An upper level low is now forming over southern Kansas and these thunderstorms are rotating around the upper level low. There may be some severe weather this afternoon. We will be monitoring this situation closely.

Below is the 500 mb flow showing the upper low today.
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Click to enlarge

Gary

Posted by at 2:21 PM | Comments (8)

Thunderstorms Tonight

Hello,
Hope you all got to enjoy an amazing day weather wise! Our highs climbed into the upper 70s and lower 80s across the viewing area. Lots of sunshine early on... but have you noticed those clouds rolling in?? They are a sign of things to come.

It has been a very active day across Kansas, with severe thunderstorm watches and warnings. Also tornado watches and warnings! Here is a look at some of the damage reports. This image includes reports from 6am to 6 pm.

Click to enlarge
To see the latest reports, check out the Storm Prediction Center's website

Right now, the storms are to our west, and they are moving north. So we are not in the direct path of any thunderstorms as of this writing.

BUT showers are beginning to develop in Eastern Oklahoma... these are also moving north... and should track right up the Kansas/Missouri boarder. These should reach the viewing area after 10pm. Check out LIVE TRIPLE ACTION DOPPLER to see where the rain is falling NOW!

It still looks like we could see some dry weather... perhaps even get the Royal's home opener in... on Monday. But the storm will be sitting in Eastern Kansas... keeping us with the chance of showers and thunderstorms later in the day.

Jamie

Posted by at 6:05 PM | Comments (2)

Isentropic WHAT?

Good Saturday evening to you!

I hope you got to enjoy the nice weather today! Temperatures climbed into the mid 70s, with an official high of 76 degrees. We got to see some sunshine... but along with the warmer air moving in... we had some clouds, too. Some of you even reported a few light sprinkles... for others, the clouds may just have looked really dark.

The increase in clouds and the light precip is actually from a phenomenon called "isentropic lift". This happens when warm air is moving into a region. The warm air on the move has a tendency to want to STAY at the same density.

Cold air is more dense... so it sinks to the surface and resists being lifted up. The warmer air moves on TOP of the cold air because that warmer air is less dense.

I was playing around in "Paint" tonight and came up with this diagram... yes, that blob in the sky is a cloud. Please, no laughing! :)

Click to enlarge

The amount of moisture in the air will determine how HEAVY and how MUCH precip we would see. Today we just saw sprinkles. However, with higher moisture content sometimes we get a day-long light rain event as higher values of moisture will lead to higher rainfall when the air is lifted.

ON TO THE FORECAST!!

We are still tracking a storm that will start to affect us Sunday night. It is a very slow-mover... so it will continue to bug us through mid-week! Right now, the models are in pretty good agreement to bring the showers and thunderstorms in Sunday night. Here is a look at the NAM model for that timeframe:

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Notice there is a squall line that has developed... that will be moving our way... but the strongest storms in that line look to be SOUTH of KC. We will keep an eye on it, though!

Next is the break in the precip we look to be getting Monday afternoon. Here is how it is shaping up to look around 1pm:

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But with daytime heating comes an increase in instability. That could cause additional showers and thunderstorms to pop up late Monday afternoon and into the evening. It really depends on how much sunshine we see, as that will really get the convective process going! Any afternoon storms also have the potential to be strong... so stay tuned!

Now that I have written a novel...
Jamie :)

Posted by at 7:51 PM | Comments (4)

Fog Explained....

Good afternoon! (and it IS shaping up to be a good afternoon weather-wise!) The fog we started with this morning has burned off, and the sun is helping to warm our temperatures into the 60s, and it's still early!

Why did we see fog today? Well, we had all the ingredients:
*Clear skies
*Light winds
*Enough moisture.

What we experienced was ground fog, which is a form of radiation fog. This type of fog is relatively shallow, and it forms almost exclusively at night or near daybreak.

How it happens... the clear skies allow the heat of the day to radiate back out into the atmosphere... this cools the ground. THEN in turn, the ground cools the air just above it. When the air is cooled to its dew point (saturation) or cooler, fog forms!

Maybe you're wondering why fog is worse in those low-lying areas, and along the river. Well, fog often forms first in those lower spots because there tends to be more moisture there. Also, cool air is DENSE air, so it sinks to the lowest elevation. These two things promote fog formation... and fog can often be most dense in these low-lying regions!

But as the sun comes up and we get a little "mixing" thanks to our winds also coming up a bit... the fog burns off! Thus our sunny afternoon.

Still watching an approaching storm for Sunday night. The latest GFS run would give us a good chance of thunderstorms Sunday night into Monday morning. That is something we'll have to watch. Here is the latest GFS run for early Monday morning:

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Right now it looks like we could see a break in the rain for Monday afternoon. Here is a look at the 1pm Monday GFS forecast:

Click to Enlarge

Notice drier air working in behind the initial push of moisture. That may be good news for KC baseball fans! We will keep you posted! Meantime, enjoy today, tomorrow and most of Sunday. Ahead of the storm we will experience a beautiful couple of days!

Gary will be out at the Wheel of Fortune tonight, so I will be doing the 5 & 6pm weathercasts. He will be back for the 10pm show!

Jamie :)

Posted by at 12:20 PM | Comments (2)

Weekend Weather! Our own Wheel of Fortune.

Pat Sajak and Vanna White are in Kansas City this weekend and what a weekend we have in store for six tapings of the "Wheel of Fortune" that will air in May. And now the weather. Don't you love high pressure? Not sales tactics but weather systems. When they are directly overhead like they are today, there is typically light winds and fair skies. All that sinking air usually means warm and sunny conditions. Anyway that is the case today but as the system heads into the Ohio Valley tomorrow and low pressure approaches from the west the winds will pick up, still Saturday looks warm and breezy. Enjoy!

Click to Enlarge

Posted by at 9:03 AM

Gary is LIVE!

Hello, everyone!

I am back from vacation, and have been spending the week working with Gary in the weather center. It is good to be back, with some amazing weather to experience! It was pretty frustrating yesterday to have been RIGHT IN THE MIDDLE of the storm, but have such a beautiful day. It's almost like Mother Nature is playing a joke on us...

Today the clouds were just slow to move out, so our temps were on the cool side. If we would have seen some sunshine, we would have been in the 60s! Instead, we hit a cool high of 57.

Now, a nice stretch of weather for the weekend... and stormy again next week. Unfortunately, the rain is aiming for ROYALS opening day... bad timing!

Gary is live tonight at Bartle Hall for the Wheel of Fortune taping. Watch for him at 5 and 6pm!

Have a great night!
Jamie :)

Posted by at 4:57 PM | Comments (1)

Now, the next storm looks impressive!

As this "cut off low, weatherman's woe" moves away, eastern Kansas and western Missouri are still waiting for a good soaking. As I write a band of heavy downpoors and thunderstorms has developed southeast near the Lake of the Ozarks. This is rotating our way so we may get some rain this evening.

Now, get ready. Next week could have widespread rainfall through the region. Look below at the GFS forecast for the upper low on Monday. This storm seems to be a bit stronger, with higher levels of moisture available. The second map is forecast rainfall for the 60 hours ending next Wednesday.

500 mb Flow valid Tuesday, April 12th....Click to enlarge

Posted by at 4:25 PM | Comments (3)

Here comes the storm!

This will be a quick entry tonight as the storm is moving in. A line of thunderstorms has developed west of Kansas City. This line will move slowly east while individual thunderstorms move almost due north in the rotation around the storm system. Wednesday the rain will be moving in from the east and southeast.

There may be some severe thunderstorms, but more beneficial rainfall from this storm. I am going to be talking about next weeks storm system on the 6 PM show. More on this tomorrow.

Gary

Posted by at 5:39 PM | Comments (7)

Less chance of severe, but wetter!

A strong storm is developing and moving our way this late Monday afternoon. The trend continues to be for a further south track of this storm which will reduce our threat of severe thunderstorms but increase our chance of wide spread rainfall. Right now I am expecting 1/2 inch to 1 inch rainfall amounts with some local areas receiving nearly 2 inches. There appears to be a 36 hour window for rainfall beginning Tuesday night. The 500 mb low (18,000 feet) forecast by the NAM model at 36 hours, or midnight Tuesday night is below. We will have to see how this is setting up for Tuesday afternoon. Low clouds could be spreading our way.

We appreciate all of the comments that you have been sending in. Spread the word about our Action Weather Blog. We will answer questions when we get the time.

Click to enlarge

Posted by at 4:44 PM | Comments (10)

Severe thunderstorms

A very strong storm is heading this way. We may get a lot of rain, but most likely more wind than rain. As the storm approaches deep moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will be pulled into the storm. Conditions will come together for severe thunderstorms to break out. However, it is still way too early to tell if we are in the location where the severe thunderstorms will hit. Below, you will see the 500 mb pattern for Tuesday evening. The upper low may track south or north of this position. More Monday.....

Click to enlarge

Posted by at 6:26 PM | Comments (9)

Boring Weather

I am getting some comments about the boring weather, and I agree. This is as bad as I have ever seen it. I am talking about the boring factor which is at an all time high. This week we had wind, lots of wind. Two storm systems move by and we get the windy part of the storms. The most exciting thing about these storm systems is that our pressure dropped to 29.29". That is low.

What is going on? Well, we are just in a bad pattern, a non exciting pattern. Tuesday into Wednesday could get somewhat exciting, so more later.

I will be working Sunday night for Jamie, who is on vacation. Brett is here Saturday night.

Gary

Posted by at 6:29 PM | Comments (1)