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Less chance of severe, but wetter!
A strong storm is developing and moving our way this late Monday afternoon. The trend continues to be for a further south track of this storm which will reduce our threat of severe thunderstorms but increase our chance of wide spread rainfall. Right now I am expecting 1/2 inch to 1 inch rainfall amounts with some local areas receiving nearly 2 inches. There appears to be a 36 hour window for rainfall beginning Tuesday night. The 500 mb low (18,000 feet) forecast by the NAM model at 36 hours, or midnight Tuesday night is below. We will have to see how this is setting up for Tuesday afternoon. Low clouds could be spreading our way.
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Posted by at April 4, 2005 4:44 PM
As long as there is thunder and I can take pictures of the lightening I am happy...Any chance for that?
There should be some thunder, maybe lots of it. It depends on how much we get into the cold weather.
Posted by: Crystal Renaud at April 4, 2005 5:10 PM
My husband thinks it's ironic that the one topic people resort to for small talk, others search out for blogging :)
Keep up the great work.
Posted by: Anne Jackson at April 4, 2005 5:20 PM
awesome.
Crystal,
We are glad you like it! More later.
Gary
Posted by: Crystal Renaud at April 4, 2005 5:27 PM
Any chance of tornados? Why or why not? This weblog gives us a great opportunity to ask some what may be silly questions that are impossible for you to answer when I'm asking them to the tv. Thanks!
The upper low is likely tracking south across Oklahoma Tuesday night and Wednesday. Circulation around this storm will be unidirectional in our part of the storm. In other words....the flow aloft and near the surface will be out of the southeast. There just won't be much directional shear. There will be some speed shear, which means stronger winds aloft than near the surface. The best chance of tornadoes would more likely be across eastern Oklahoma and areas south of us, south of the upper level low. We should see some heavy downpoors, and likely some thunderstorms. Maybe some severe thunderstorms. Let's see how it sets up tomorrow.
Gary
Posted by: salmon at April 4, 2005 6:37 PM
do you know if there are any more storm watcher classes in the general area (like an hour or two away at most?)
thanks!
Go to the National Weather Service website and they have all of the classes listed.
Gary
Posted by: Anne Jackson at April 4, 2005 8:35 PM
My husband works outdoors framing houses and wants to know if the wind speeds will exceed 50mph tomorrow. He wants to raise some walls tomorrow, but doesn't want to lose them in the storm. What do you think? We rely very heavily on your forecasts and appreciate your honesty when you aren't real sure what is going to happen. Any advice is helpful. Thanks for liking the weather so much! Faithful watchers...Kim & Greg
Posted by: Kim Lock at April 4, 2005 9:38 PM
Gary,
As it appears now will this storm system be broken into basically "three" rain events (mini-fronts) of short duration or more of a steady variety that will last for the 48 to 72 hour period?
Lance, we will probably have some longer duration rain bands Wednesday or Wednesday evening.
Gary
Posted by: Lance Carey at April 4, 2005 10:31 PM
Is there much chance we'll experience another frost?
Angela, There is still a decent chance of one more freeze, or at least some frost with the storm systems moving by.
Gary
Posted by: Angela at April 5, 2005 10:51 AM
How is it shaping up? It is probably too soon to tell.
Posted by: Crystal Renaud at April 5, 2005 11:15 AM
We are planning on traveling from Columbus, Ohio to KC for the Royals' home opener next week. I know it's still early but do you think we will have a nice day at the K?
Ben,
It is still a bit early, but a storm is targeting opening day. Let's wait another day or two before we get too concerned.
Gary
Posted by: Ben Karns at April 5, 2005 11:26 AM
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