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Showers Monday

It looks like a pretty good chance of showers for us as we go into the beginning of the week. Right now, it looks like the rain will hold off until the afternoon and evening hours. Below is the NAM model forecast for Monday evening.

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We will be influenced by a storm system to our South... the Low Pressure center over Texas. A cold front approaching from the North will provided additional lift. Rainfall amounts look light, though... with forecast totals from a trace to a quarter of an inch. The heaviest rain and best chance for thunderstorms should remain south of Kansas City. We may here a rumble of thunder, but the best instability will be south!

Below is the GFS model for Monday evening. It is showing relative humidity (the brightest blue is 100% RH, or very moist... while the darkest purple is less than 10%, or very dry).

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Notice we have moisture in place over KC. But we are lacking major instability. The areas that are shaded in black represent negative Showalter Indexes... or areas with higher instability. Those areas are Southwest Missouri, Southeast Kansas, Eastern Oklahoma, and Western Arkansas.

Most of this week, temperatures will be slightly cooler than normal. Another chance of showers moves in toward the end of the week.

Jamie

Posted by at April 24, 2005 8:35 PM