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Will it finally rain?

It has been two weeks since our last heavy "widespread" rain event. Everything is coming together in a very strange way to bring us some much needed rainfall beginning Tuesday night. There are some questions as to what will cause the rain. A series of upper level disturbances are moving this way and will weaken as they move across Kansas Tuesday and Tuesday night. As the disturbances move by, a strange upper level storm may form over Missouri by Wednesday. This could prolong the rain threat into Wednesday evening. Low level moisture has been lacking this entire spring. There is a lot of moisture just south of Kansas City this evening. It appears this moisture will get pulled into the KC area by Tuesday night and rain should fall.

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The map above the forecast rainfall for our area by the NAM model. Most computer models are predicting 1 to 3 inches of rain across the area by Wednesday afternoon. Confidence is growing, but we'll see.

I hope you had a nice Memorial Day. My brother Scott has been visiting this weekend from California. He came in to go tornado chasing, but there hasn't been anything to chase while he has been here. So, we got a good visit in.

Gary

Posted by at 5:52 PM | Comments (3)

Spotty, at best!

Showers and thunderstorms are moving through the viewing area this evening... but they are spotty at best. Not everyone will see rain, and those that see a shower will only see minimal rain accumulations. Our dry streak continues!!

Our dew points DID come up today... we have been in the upper 50s to near 60 degrees. But a cold front coming through did NOT provide much forcing... so it was hard for any organized precip to get going this afternoon.

Monday and Tuesday... some clouds look like they'll hang around, but we should also see some peeks of sunshine. There will be a storm CLOSE to us on Wednesday... but will it bring us RAIN?? Here is the NAM for Wednesday morning:

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Now look where the rain is forecast:

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Both the NAM and the GFS are keeping the rain to our west. We will have to watch it... but at this point, no showers in the forecast until the end of the week.

By Thursday we start to see the Gulf open up... this means moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will be free to move into the central part of the US. You can see the flow on the GFS for Thursday evening:

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The transport of warm, moist air into the KC area will increase our chance of showers by Friday and into the weekend.

Have a great Memorial Day!
Jamie

Posted by at 7:24 PM | Comments (1)

Struggling Showers

What a BEAUTIFUL day, don't you think?! We got to enjoy wall to wall sunshine most of the day, but late this afternoon... we began to see a sign of things to come. Clouds moved in from the west... this is a sign that moisture is increasing in the atmosphere.

As of this writing... there are even showers moving into the Metro area. (and thunderstorms down toward Paola and Harrisonville). The showers developed over Kansas and have weakened as they moved EAST into Missouri. The reason for the struggling showers... low moisture content. While the moisture is increasing here in KC... it is still pretty low. Here is a look at our evening dewpoints:

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Our dewpoints are in the upper 40s... pretty dry. If we are going to see any REAL thunderstorm action... we'll need those numbers to come up well into the 50s tonight and stay up tomorrow.

If this can happen... I think we're in for a good shot of showers and thunderstorms both overnight and Sunday during the day! At this point, Sunday doesn't look like a complete wash-out... but you can always check out LIVE TRIPLE ACTION DOPPLER to see where the rain is falling NOW.

Jamie

Posted by at 5:52 PM | Comments (1)

A Wet Holiday Weekend?

Today we got some much needed rain across the Metro! Rainfall totals were light... ranging from .03" in Shawnee to .05" in Independence... but at least it's *something*, right?? We talked about this rain chance yesterday, if you watched any of our newscasts (or read the blog entry below!)

Another thing we talked about yesterday was that most of the rain this weekend would stay to our south but that it was somthing we'd have to watch. Well, sure enough, the data over the last 24 hours is trending this pecip farther to the NORTH. We were thinking it might come NORTH into the KC metro... and now it looks like very well might!

Let's break it down for you...

SATURDAY MORNING: Looks great. Mostly clear skies... a litte chilly with temperatures starting off in the lower 50s.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Partly cloudy, and warm with highs in the lower 80s. You might notice some increasing humidity.

SATURDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT: A 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms.

SUNDAY MORNING: A 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms. We'll start off cool--near 60 degrees.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Looks like it could be cloudy and cool. Not really "pool" weather! Highs near 70 degrees.

So that is basically how the weekend is shaping up right NOW! We will tweak the forecast as we continue to get more data in!

Have a safe weekend!
Jamie

Posted by at 5:42 PM

Comfortable Holiday Weekend

Last night, a cold front came through Kansas and Missouri. Along with it came some clouds... and even a few showers and thunderstorms for the lucky ones!

Andrew Bohnenkamp from Bonner Springs sent in this beautiful picture of the sun setting between the clouds yesterday evening:

That front allowed slightly cooler air to move into the region today. We started off in the lower 50s this morning... and afternoon highs have only climbed into the mid 70s. Over the holiday weekend, the comfortable temperatures will continue! We'll see highs in the 70s all weekend long!

But the bigger question... WILL IT RAIN?? There is a slight chance of a brief shower Friday afternoon/evening... but anything that does fall will be pretty measley. We have a cold front breezing by... here is a look at the NAM for Friday evening:

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Saturday through Monday looks dry in Kansas City... but if you are traveling to area lakes... you may run into some scattered showers and thunerstorms. The farther SOUTH you go... the better chance for RAIN. (ie, Lake of the Ozarks). Here is a look at where the most rainfall will occur:

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For the most part, KC will be dry... But it sure is a close call, and something we will have to keep an eye on for Sunday.

Have a great evening!
Jamie

Posted by at 4:08 PM

Miss #4

I am about to do the weather tonight at 10 PM. We just looked at the new data and there is nothing. I mean, no rain is forecast by the NGM and NAM models. A cold front will move through Wednesday night and this will end the chance of rain for days. Unbelievable! I am doing a special presentation during the weather to show all of the misses. 3 so far with 2 more to go.

Gary

Posted by at 9:58 PM | Comments (5)

Another Near Miss

Hi,
I have not entered a blog in a while but a few things have been popping into my mind as this absurd weather continues here in late May. The latest round of weirdness happened this morning. A thunderstorm complex took on a life of it's own and came within one county of Kansas City, but as it encountered drier air it fell apart. Since March 1st, we are nearly 3 inches behind in normal rainfall yet for the year we are just below normal. Then take this into account. So far in May, and there is only one week to go, there have been fewer than 100 tornadoes in May. May is the most active month for tornadoes and the past two years have seen record numbers. It seems Mother Nature is taking the month off. Well that is all for now, we do have another chance of rain tomorrow but with the lack of significant convergence near the front it appears rain will be scattered or light.

Have a great day,

Brett

Posted by at 9:16 AM | Comments (1)

Getting Rain...Like Pulling Teeth

Everytime we have a set up for rain something goes wrong, so that either we get nothing, or less than half of what is expected. There was one exception when 2" to 4" of rain fell around May 12th.

We have northwest flow aloft and southeast to east winds at the surface. There are disturbances embedded in the northwest flow. What is supposed to happen is clusters of T-Storms form in the high plains during the afternoon. They then roll east or southeast at night, making it to eastern Kansas and western Missouri the following morning. T-Storms are now forming in the high plains (See the current radar below, 8:15 PM Monday). They will likely move east-southeast all night, but we have a problem around here. Our dewpoint is in the 40s to low 50s. This makes our humidity under 50%. So, as the T-Storms approach our area, they will likely dissipate as they do not have the juice to support them, or these T-Storms will survive and move into Oklahoma.

Now, all of this said, on Wednesday we may get in on some rain as one of the western Plains T-Storm complexes makes it to KC just before it dissipates. The chance of it holding together long enough is now at 50%. We'll be monitoring this closely. Let's hope it rains by Wednesday, because it is looking dry for the first part of the holiday weekend.

CLICK TO ENLARGE

Posted by at 8:16 PM | Comments (5)

Quiet for a few days!

Would you believe a cold front came through early this morning? For many of us, it came through with NO rain... and NO drop in temperature! In fact, highs today were a few degrees WARMER than yesterday's numbers! Here is a look at the nation's highs:

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The reason for the lack of a cool down... our winds have not been particularly strong today (thus colder air has NOT been ushered in)... and the front itself hasn't gone too far. It is sitting in Southern Missouri:

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Meantime... we are still waiting for another round of rain! Some of you east of KC had thunderstorms last night but the rest of us remain dry. The next chance of showers and thunderstorms comes on Wednesday. Here is the NAM model's depiction of Wednesday evening:

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Just a 30% chance right now... we will keep watching it as we go through the week. The models are also hinting at a cool down for the end of the week and into next weekend! Stay tuned!

Jamie

Posted by at 7:09 PM | Comments (2)

Thunderstorms

A cold front to our West has thunderstorms moving across central Kansas this evening. Will these thunderstorms make it to KC? It doesn't look like this batch will... they are moving to the Southeast.

We have been waiting for thunderstorms to develop over Nebraska... but so far NOTHING!! They tried to get going earlier this evening, but fizzled out. What is going on?? The atmosphere has a pretty good CAP. You can read more about atmospheric capping in our previous blog discussion about CAPS.

Thunderstorms that have been ongoing in Iowa are now starting to back-build to the southwest. These are clipping our northeast counties this evening. We will have to watch this area! Check out LIVE TRIPLE ACTION DOPPLER to see the latest radar images.

So will we see thunderstorms? While it doesn't look to impressive at the moment... we can't rule it out until the cold front comes through. Any of these storms could produce gusty winds or hail... but as the sun sets... our severe weather threat is diminshing!!

Sunday looks like another nice day, although a bit cooler. We should see some afternoon sunshine and highs in the upper 70s!

Hope you're enjoying the weekend!
Jamie

Posted by at 7:56 PM

A stormy Saturday night & Sunday morning?

A cold front will move into the area Saturday night and slowly move through. The NAM (North American Mesoscale) model slows the front down and creates a weak storm on it. This would bring us a very good chance rain with thunderstorms rather widespread. However, the other models DO NOT do this. Tonight at 10 PM we should have a better idea. Below is the forecast precipitation from the NAM model for Saturday night, and the then below that is the forecast by the GFS model to show the difference. I need a few more hours to analyze, so we are going 50% chance right now.

Click the map to enlarge

Posted by at 4:53 PM | Comments (1)

Hot today, but not tomorrow!

Why did it heat up today? A storm that is dropping south through Illinois is acting like an Alberta Clipper. When these systems go by to our north we get into a zone of westerly downsloping winds ahead of a cold front. Look below to see the drawing that Jamie and I worked on together. Yeah, we need to keep working on our artistic skills.

Click above to enlarge

As the surface low moves through Illinois the cold front will swing across us drawing some cooler air into our region Friday.

The chances for thunderstorms will be going up beginning, perhaps, as early as Saturday.

Gary

Posted by at 3:33 PM | Comments (2)

Rain Wednesday?

We continue to be in the 77 day cycle that was established late in 2004. Jeff Penner and I were looking at the past 160 days and it is amazing how similar the pattern is. So, does this help us in the forecast? Yes! Not only do the computer models predict the next ten days well, we can say that confidence is extremely high that the chance of rain will be limited to Wednesday and not again for a long time. At this time of year it doesn't take much to produce rain. Any little disturbance may do it. So, after Wednesday if it does rain it will be quick.

Now, what is next. If you believe in my cycle theory, and I do 100%, then it should turn wet by the end of the month or early in June. Up and down we go, as it should be cooler than average with a couple of warm spells. With the Memorial Day weekend chances for rain will come warmer, more humid air.

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What you see above is the 500 mb flow forecast for Thursday. An upper low has passed by to our south, with a pronounced ridge in the upper levels of the atmosphere developing to our northwest. This should block any chance of rain after Wednesday.

Gary

Posted by at 4:05 PM | Comments (6)

Warming Trend

After a cool weekend with highs in the 60s... we will start to moderate on Monday. Winds will shift in from a more southerly direction... and that will help boost afternoon highs into the lower 70s. By Tuesday, the winds will become stronger... bringing in even warmer air. We'll climb up near 80 degrees on Tuesday.

The next chance of showers comes Wednesday, as a storm heads our way.

Now a note on how computer models can change big-time from day to day! Take the GFS model. Yesterday evening, the model was showing the scenario below for the end of next week:

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This shows our Wednesday storm moving off to the east... over West Virginia and Pennsylvania. But that SAME model... from this MORNING's run... shows something completely different:

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Notice the model is NOW cutting that low off down to our south. It is a trend that the other models are not picking up on... but it is something we will have to watch. It is just amazing how a model can change so much from run to run!

Enjoy the warmer temperatures...
Jamie :)

Posted by at 7:57 PM | Comments (2)

Cooler Sunday

What a beautiful day today! I hope you got to get out and enjoy the weather. I played a little tennis this morning with a few co-workers... conditions were perfect with temperatures in the 60s. AND we had a lot of fun!

You might have noticed the winds picked up a bit this afternoon. That was actually another cold front moving through KC. You really couldn't tell anything came through at all... unless you noticed those gusting winds! The front passed through DRY... with no showers or thunderstorms.

Even COOLER air is working in behind this front. We will start the day in the upper 30s on Sunday... and will only make it in the mid to upper 60s for afternoon highs. BUT we will once again be dealing with plenty of sunshine! After all the rain we had... I am sure many will be out mowing the lawn! :)

Monday starts our warm-up as a warm front heads our way. See NAM model below for Monday evening:

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You can see it wants to bring in a few showers... maybe a thunderstorm. This could happen, as the warmer air moves into our region. BUT only about a 30% chance as of now. Tuesday looks DRY but WINDY... and another storm moves in for late Wednesday.

Hope you are enjoying the weekend!
Jamie

Posted by at 7:40 PM

Atmospheric Caps

My question is, what makes up an atmospheric "cap" and what do you look for in defining one?
--Mike

I thought I would address Mike's capping question this afternoon. Two blog entries in one day... WOW!! :)

When you hear the phrase, "The atmosphere is capped"... it really means just that. Picture it like a bottle of soda. If you shake that soda bottle really hard... and remove the cap... it will explode!! The same thing can happen if developing thunderstorms penetrate the atmospheric cap.

The cap is a region of stable air in the troposphere that keeps a lid on convective lifting (developing thunderstorms). What causes the cap?? A region of warm air aloft. (remember, when we have warm air over cold air... it is a sable situation).

The cap can be the difference between quiet weather and a severe weather situation. If the cap HOLDS... it will be a quiet weather day. However, if the cap weakens or BREAKS, daytime convection could explode to produce damaging storms. This would be the situation if the cap breaks at a time we are seeing a lot of instability...(Our peak instability is usually in the afternoon hours).

The cap is measured in degrees Celsius... a cap of 1 is weak, while a cap of 4 is strong. We sometimes look at a SKEW-T chart to get a feel for the cap. A SKEW T chart is below, it is basically a VERTICAL profile of the atmosphere:

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On this sounding, the cap is 2.8... so a moderate cap is in place.

Jamie

Posted by at 11:20 AM | Comments (1)

Rainfall Totals

Hank posted a comment about rainfall amounts... and seeing that everyone has now GOTTEN rain... let's talk totals!

The National Weather Service has weather data recording stations set up all across the country. Some of the stations in our area include KCI, the downtown airport, St. Joseph, and Olathe. These are the "official" numbers, if you will.

But as we've SEEN over the past few days... not EVERYone is getting the same amount of rain. Measuring rainfall is not a perfect system, as some areas could see locally heavier rain than others. A heavier downpour can really skew the numbers.

That said... here are some of the official three-day totals from the NWS reporting stations.

ST. JOSEPH: 4.25"
KCI: 3.31"
LEE'S SUMMIT: 3.07"
DOWNTOWN: 2.72"
LAWRENCE: 2.66"
OLATHE: 1.86"

You may have had more or less in your yard... the best way to know for SURE is to get a rain gage!! Or you can take a look at the NWS Doppler Radar rainfall estimates. Here is the data from 2:20pm Thursday through 11am Friday:

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OR you can just go to the NWS Pleasant Hill website to see the latest image! The legend is along the left-hand side. The green colors reflect 1-2"... and when you get into the yellows/oranges... we're talking 2.3" to 4"!!

It looks like showers will continue on and off through this afternoon and evening. The weekend will be much drier (and cooler)!

Jamie

Posted by at 10:56 AM | Comments (1)

Bubble High

Last night during the 6pm news, Gary volunteered me to write a blog entry on the BUBBLE HIGH. (thanks, Gary.) :) I think he is getting me back for making him do the Fracto Cumulus Cloud entry... Anyway... here it goes!

We experienced this weather phenomenon yesterday evening, after thunderstorms moved through the KC Metro.

A bubble high is basically a smaller area of high pressure. We refer to these smaller scale weather features as "mesoscale" (maybe 50 to 200 miles in size). This meso-high is usually associated with cooler air from the rainy downdraft of a thunderstorm. Once the thunderstorms move through... they cool the air... so we are left with a different airmass than we started with.

Yesterday is the perfect example. We started in the upper 70s and lower 80s. Then the rain came and cooled us into the 60s. This cooler air is a sign things are becoming more stable.

Some sort of boundary separates the bubble high from the surrounding air... yesterday evening it was our outflow boundary, south of KC. It was still in the 80s to the south... but in our bubble high... we were in the 60s.

Below is a diagram I had fun making in paint. I am not artist... but hopefully you can get an idea of what I'm talking about:

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Click to enlarge

Jamie

Posted by at 11:44 AM | Comments (7)

Fracto Cumulus clouds

Jamie is making me do an entry on Fracto Cumulus clouds, since I just said I would on the air. So, here it goes......

Fracto cumulus clouds are low clouds near the ground, usually in rain cooled air. These are usually small clouds with separation from other clouds and these usually indicate that the air has just stablized. Rain may still be falling, but the thunderstorms have moved off to the east, sort of like what is happening this evening.

Gary

Posted by at 5:33 PM | Comments (3)

Busy Day!

At 4:30pm... it is 82 degrees in Olathe, and 61 degrees in Weston, KS! That is a huge temperature difference. There is a frontal boundary separating the airmasses... and along and north of that front... we have seen strong thunderstorms this afternoon.

The main threat from these thunderstorms has been large hail and damaging winds. We have seen many hail reports of over an inch--and golfball sized hail in some spots. Heavy rain has also been a concern today... mainly North of I-70, where most of the activity has been. As of this writing here are rainfall amounts:
St. Joseph: 2.33"
MCI: .37"
Downtown: .27"
Olathe: NOTHING so far

How frustrating for those of you needing the rain to not get any!

We will see another round of thunderstorm activity on Thursday, and there is a better chance for this rain to reach the southern parts of the viewing area. You can always look at LIVE TRIPLE ACTION DOPPLER to see where the rain is falling NOW.

Stay tuned... we will keep you up to date on the severe weather situation! We track the storms with Live Triple Action Doppler, and our NEWEST storm tracking tool... Sky Tracker!! It is very cool to be able to track the storms from the sky in our helicopter. We have been getting some great views of the storms!

Jamie

Posted by at 4:34 PM | Comments (3)

Heat, Humidity, but any Rain?

Very warm & humid air will flow north into our area on Tuesday. Highs will be near 90 Tuesday & Wednesday along with breezy & muggy conditions. This will be near record heat!

This time of year when you have heat & humidity all you need is a trigger like a cold front & heavy rain could occur. Well, Thursday night just such a trigger will push through eastern Kansas & western Missouri. Most years I would say, no doubt, heavy rain likely. However, this is 2005 & the storm systems & fronts that come through our area go through odd transitions, making widespread heavy precipitation a major question. It will take until Wednesday to really get a good handle on this. Lets hope this chance comes through, as it looks dry for 5-7 days after this one rain chance.

Posted by at 4:52 PM | Comments (6)

Not Over Yet

Mother's Day started nice, and we reached a high of 78 degrees late this morning BEFORE the showers and thunderstorms moved in. The rain actually dropped our temperature a good 10-15 degrees!

What happened? We "wet-bulbed out"... meaning the air temperature dropped to the WET BULB temperature. The wet bulb is the temperature air will cool to when water is evaporated into the air. Evaportation is a cooling process... and it happens every time it rains!

The amount of cooling depends on the quantity of evaporation that takes place. The air will continue to cool until the air can evaporate no more moisture. When the cooling continues and evaporation stops... making the air saturated... the air has reached the wet bulb temperature.

This evening... a break from the rain... but we could see more shower and thunderstorm activity overnight. Nothing severe expected... You can check out LIVE TRIPLE ACTION DOPPLER to see where the rain is falling right NOW.

As for Monday, the cold front isn't QUITE through the area yet... so I am keeping a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms until the front is through. It's not going to go very far... it will stall South of KC and come back NORTH as a warm front on Tuesday. That will bring us much warmer temperatures for the middle part of the week!

Have a great week!
Jamie

Posted by at 8:13 PM | Comments (10)

Rain, Rain Come This Way...

There is a storm in the Plains... heading our way. Here is a look at this evening's surface map:

Click to enlarge

Ahead of this storm, we are in a strong southerly flow. That has been increasing our moisture... as Gary pointed out in his blog entry yesterday. Today we had highs in the lower 80s, and it felt a bit muggy. In this warm, moist (and therefore unstable) airmass... we will have a chance of showers and thunderstorms. This will continue until the cold front passes through on Monday.

Even though we will see some spotty shower/thunderstorm activity... it won't be in the AMOUNTS we need. Here is the NAM's estimated precip through Monday afternoon:

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As you can see from the legend to the left... there is only a tenth of an inch forecast. Some places could see higher amounts, with locally heavier rain in any given thunderstorm. But overall... this is not the rain event we NEED.

A lot of lawns are starting to brown up out there... and many of you have started watering. The good news, as we head into the end of next week... there is a more favorable solution for heavy rain that is evident in the computer models. If everything sets up right... we could finally get the break we need! It is a long way off... so stay tuned as we tweak the forecast...

Happy Mother's Day to all the Moms!!
Jamie :)

Posted by at 7:03 PM | Comments (2)

The Wheat Tour

Every year at this time members and traders at the Kansas City Board of Trade take a trip to western Kansas to tour the winter wheat crop.
They go into fields, check the state of the crop and estimate how many bushels per acre can be expected from this year's crop.

They returned a couple of days ago. It appears the crop is in pretty good condition, due to good moisture during the fall & early winter. The recent freezes did little damage. There is one problem developing. The crop needs one more good rain to finish off the season. The weird pattern we have been in has also been affecting western Kansas. Since March 1st Dodge City & Wichita are 3" below average rainfall. They are drying out fast, just like Kansas City.

Well, there may be some hope in 6-9 days. Our long range data the last 24 hours is showing the potential of a slow-moving storm at the end of next week. This type of storm, this time of year could bring great rains to the plains. See the forecast rainfall map below from our GFS model for May 11-14.

CLICK TO ENLARGE

Posted by at 8:57 PM

To rain or not to rain, this is the question?

60 degree dewpoints have made it into the region. This means that rather rich Gulf of Mexico moisture has arrived. You can feel the humidity. So, now all we need is a trigger. There seems to be a few triggers heading our way, but nothing so overwhelming that I am convinced it will rain. A front drags through the area on Monday and this should be enough to bring us some rain. Then later in the week there is a chance. Look at the GFS from this morning. This is the forecast total rainfall for the 60 hours ending one week from now, next Friday. Amazing how it stops on our doorstep. More later.

Click to enlarge

The red, above represents over 3 inches of rain. This is exactly what we need to replenish our ground moisture.

Posted by at 4:21 PM | Comments (1)

Dry

Thursday evening. I am getting ready for the 6 PM broadcast. My goal is to explain why it is dry and getting drier. We just looked at the GFS through 384 hours. There is one good chance of rain in the next 16 days, as of today's data. I am including the 60 hour total precipitation for the end of next week. But, this is the only good chance.

Click to enlarge

The weather pattern shows no signs of turning around. So, enjoy the nice, dry weather. I am asking a question tonight to see how people are feeling about this nice weather. "Are you enjoying this nice, dry weather, or do you want it to rain?"

Windy and Stormy are here with me today. Windy will officially be 15 1/2 years old on May 10th (her birthday is November 10th). She continues to amaze me, but it is getting tougher as she has Arthritis.

Gary

Posted by at 6:05 PM | Comments (4)

Down on the Farm!

I am heading out to Edgerton, Kansas today to chat with a farmer about how the weather has been treating him. First... it was too wet... now it seems too dry. We will take a tour of the farm and find out exactly what farmers need to keep the crops growing strong! This story should air FRIDAY at 5 or 6 pm!
Jamie

BECAUSE OF HEAVY NEWS CONTENT... THIS STORY WILL BE HELD FOR EITHER THE 10pm NEWS FRIDAY NIGHT... OR THE WEEKEND NEWS!

Posted by at 10:09 AM | Comments (1)

Humidity will be increasing

The dry weather pattern will likely continue, but there are some chances for rain. We will be testing the dry pattern the next few days as moisture increases from the Gulf of Mexico. The first chance will come Friday as a weak warm front lifts through Kansas and Missouri. The latest NAM model has all of the rain forming north of K.C. We will have to track this carefully on Wednesday.

Posted by at 10:28 PM | Comments (1)

Warming trend, but dry!

Monday evening and I am ready for the weekend already......

The weather pattern continues to cycle through the 75 day pattern. It is a dry one, but I would be shocked to see May end dry. The pattern should shift just enough to bring us some heavy thunderstorms before the end of the month, but at this moment I just don't see it. As soon as there is a good trend showing up for rainfall we will let you know.

This cold pattern will fade away during the next week and much warmer weather should be here soon. No maps to show as everything is so boring. We will come up with a map to describe this weather tomorrow.

Gary

Posted by at 10:27 PM | Comments (1)

FROST ADVISORY TONIGHT

Unseasonably cool temperatures continue today, with highs only topping out in the mid 50s! That's a far cry from the lower 70s we're used to this time of year (our average high temperature is now 71 degrees)! And it's not just us... look at the cool air dominating the middle part of the country below! (These are afternoon highs)

Click to enlarge

There is still the chance of a frost the next TWO mornings, as temperatures will be dropping to the middle and lower 30s. MONDAY morning we could actually see a freeze in some areas, with clear skies and light winds. Here is some interesting info on FREEZE DATES from the NWS:

...PERIOD OF RECORDS (1889-2003)...
AVERAGE DATE OF LATEST FREEZE IN THE SPRING..... APR 8TH
LATEST FREEZE IN THE SPRING..... MAY 6TH (1944)

The latest freeze we've ever had is May 6th... that would be this coming Friday! So, we're cutting it close... flirting with a record late freeze. However, it looks like we'll actually see a warming trend this week, so after Tuesday, the threat of a freeze will decrease. Just a few more nights of covering up your tender vegetation!

The problem then turns to DRY weather. There is not a good chance of showers the next 7 days. Next weekend's storm is iffy at this point, but we will keep an eye on it!

Jamie

Posted by at 6:01 PM | Comments (2)