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Heat, Humidity, but any Rain?
Very warm & humid air will flow north into our area on Tuesday. Highs will be near 90 Tuesday & Wednesday along with breezy & muggy conditions. This will be near record heat!
This time of year when you have heat & humidity all you need is a trigger like a cold front & heavy rain could occur. Well, Thursday night just such a trigger will push through eastern Kansas & western Missouri. Most years I would say, no doubt, heavy rain likely. However, this is 2005 & the storm systems & fronts that come through our area go through odd transitions, making widespread heavy precipitation a major question. It will take until Wednesday to really get a good handle on this. Lets hope this chance comes through, as it looks dry for 5-7 days after this one rain chance.
Posted by at May 9, 2005 4:52 PM
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I've been playing amatuer weatherman this morning. Is it a reasonable assumption at this point that Thursday will have the potential for a tornado outbreak?
HANK:
There is a chance for severe weather on Thursday. The main threat looks like large hail and damaging winds, but a tornado is not out of the question.
Posted by: Hank at May 10, 2005 8:45 AM
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Not quite ready for this weather! Although it look beautiful I still want spring temperatures with thunderstorms! :-)
Do you think it will keep being warm or do you think it will cool down for a little while longer?
Crystal,
It will cool off for the weekend. However, next week could get back into the 80s. As we head towards the end of spring, the cool periods will be outnumbered by the warm times.
Posted by: Crystal Renaud at May 10, 2005 1:15 PM
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Having been through the tornado that destroyed many houses in our subdivision in the northland in May, 2003, I scare easily at the threat of tornadoes. Do you think that the storms tomorrow will produce tornadoes in the Gladstone/Northland area? Just curious, but it is the worst feeling knowing they could be coming.
JoMarie
JoMARIE:
The Northland is under a tornado watch this afternoon. That means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms that could produce tornadoes. I know people who have been through tornadoes... and it is always a scary time for them when severe weather moves in. My best advice is to HAVE A SAFETY PLAN in place, so if the storms strike... you will be ready! One of the best things you can do is to buy a NOAA weather radio (at most stores that sell electronics, around $30). This is basically an alarm clock for weather warnings, and will alert you if your county is under a warning. The best part, they have battery back-up... so a NOAA weather radio will work, even if you loose power. Stay tuned, we will keep you posted today...
Jamie
Posted by: JoMarie at May 10, 2005 10:23 PM
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What is the potential for strong thunderstorms and severe weather (i.e. hail and tornadoes) on Thurs.? Also, what determines how big hail gets? Love your station and love this blog! =)
SHIELA:
We do have a chance for severe thunderstorms on Thursday. The main threats will be hail and damaging winds. Hailstone size is maximized by low freezing levels, dry air in the mid-levels, large instability (CAPE), and high wind shear.
Low freezing levels mean LESS TIME for a hailstone to melt.
Dry air in the middle part of the atmosphere will help the freezing levels to lower (think evaporational cooling, discussed a few blogs ago).
CAPE, or Convective Available Potential Energy, is the amount of buoyant energy available to accelerate a parcel vertically. Large CAPE means stronger updrafts. This is what helps suspend hail stones, and helps them grow larger.
Lastly, strong upper level winds will tilt the updraft of the thunderstorm to aid in additional growth. ie, it cannot be "cut off" by the storm's downdraft because the updraft and the downdraft will be separate. This makes for a *stronger* updraft.
Hope that helps!
Jamie
Posted by: Shiela at May 11, 2005 8:43 AM
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Thanks for the update. I do have one of those weather radios! :-) We are prepared, its just a little scary. I'm watching though. Thanks for responding, I appreciate it!
JoMarie
Posted by: JoMarie at May 11, 2005 12:38 PM
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Will today's severe weather outbreak, which appears to be propagating southward along with the frontal boundary and/or outflow boundary from earlier convection, lessen the probability of severe weather tomorrow or Friday? Or will the strong low pressure developing to the west force the warm air northward again tomorrow and keep us in the threat area?
PATRICK:
Sometimes the atmosphere will re-load the day after a severe weather event. Tomorrow may be one of those days. A Low Pressure center will be riding along the front to our south... and this could kick off more strong thunderstorms. Most of the ongoing storms today *were* north of the front.
Posted by: Patrick at May 11, 2005 3:07 PM
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