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We continue to be in the 77 day cycle that was established late in 2004. Jeff Penner and I were looking at the past 160 days and it is amazing how similar the pattern is. So, does this help us in the forecast? Yes! Not only do the computer models predict the next ten days well, we can say that confidence is extremely high that the chance of rain will be limited to Wednesday and not again for a long time. At this time of year it doesn't take much to produce rain. Any little disturbance may do it. So, after Wednesday if it does rain it will be quick.
Now, what is next. If you believe in my cycle theory, and I do 100%, then it should turn wet by the end of the month or early in June. Up and down we go, as it should be cooler than average with a couple of warm spells. With the Memorial Day weekend chances for rain will come warmer, more humid air.
Click to enlarge
What you see above is the 500 mb flow forecast for Thursday. An upper low has passed by to our south, with a pronounced ridge in the upper levels of the atmosphere developing to our northwest. This should block any chance of rain after Wednesday.
Posted by at May 16, 2005 4:05 PM
Your 77 day cycle is interesting, and leads me to two questions.
1)What is the primary driving force to the cycle and
2) How many more do you anticipate before it changes to something substantially different in length.
I am uncertain of the primary driving force. I just know that EVERY YEAR a new pattern sets up in late October into early November and then begins cycling. Last year it was a 54 day cycle. Two years ago it was a 35 day cycle. It varies every year, and when it is 77 days like this year, you really don't see it until well into the fall or early winter seasons. It will likely continue into July and August before dying out.
Posted by: Bob from Lawrence at May 16, 2005 8:52 PM
Is the 77 day cycle something you've developed in house, or did you develope it in conjunction with other organizations/meteorologists (i.e.--NOAA, local meteorologists both on and off air, etc.). Also, what computer modeling do you notice seems to project our forcast better?
This year, I believe we are in a 77 day cycle. Every year is different and it sets up between October 15th and November 5th. There are two other meteorologists who are completely on board with me on this theory and I am presenting it this summer at the National Broadcast Conference for the American Meteorological Society. I have seen this happening for more than 10 years. It is absolutely fascinating.
Our favorite model in the long range is the GFS. For the short range we use a blend of the models. One computer model may do well one season and then horrible the next.
Posted by: Mike from Warrensburg at May 17, 2005 2:59 PM
So does this mean it will not be a very stormy summer because of this pattern?
This pattern could end up being a stormy summer pattern. It is still very unclear what it will produce, but I do know that the pattern will continue. I will do a blog on what we think for the summer in the next few weeks.
Posted by: Olivia at May 17, 2005 5:25 PM
That is just amazing. I hope it does end up being stormy. It just blows my mind how much goes into putting a weather forecast together!
We are watching the satellite and radar very carefully today... waiting for a sign of developing storms. So far, all is quiet... but as the day wears on... that could change. As we go into the afternoon, the atmosphere will further destabilize... AND the frontal boundary will move closer. This could get storms going in Eastern Kansas... and they would then head our way. We are watching it, and will keep you posted!
Posted by: Anne Jackson at May 17, 2005 10:41 PM
Maybe it is just me, but it seems this spring has been much windier than most. Is that true? When do you see our next still day? I have been trying to finish constructing a small greenhouse and cannot work on it on windy days!!
It really hasn't been any windier this spring than those in the past... the wind is caused by a pressure gradient that develops between the Rocky Mountains and Kansas City as low pressure forms. You should notice a weakening in the winds over the next few days.
Posted by: Marcus at May 18, 2005 10:12 AM
Based on your 77 day cycle, what does June 11th look like? The reason I ask is that I am putting on a 5k road race in Independence that morning. Hopefully we can get Jamie K. and the rest of NBC Action News out there with us.
Based on the cycle... a stormier period is likely during the first two weeks of June. It's hard to say what will happen ON that particular DAY... but remember it still is the wettest time of the year.
Posted by: Scott Soares at May 18, 2005 3:54 PM