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Will it finally rain?
It has been two weeks since our last heavy "widespread" rain event. Everything is coming together in a very strange way to bring us some much needed rainfall beginning Tuesday night. There are some questions as to what will cause the rain. A series of upper level disturbances are moving this way and will weaken as they move across Kansas Tuesday and Tuesday night. As the disturbances move by, a strange upper level storm may form over Missouri by Wednesday. This could prolong the rain threat into Wednesday evening. Low level moisture has been lacking this entire spring. There is a lot of moisture just south of Kansas City this evening. It appears this moisture will get pulled into the KC area by Tuesday night and rain should fall.
Click to enlarge
The map above the forecast rainfall for our area by the NAM model. Most computer models are predicting 1 to 3 inches of rain across the area by Wednesday afternoon. Confidence is growing, but we'll see.
I hope you had a nice Memorial Day. My brother Scott has been visiting this weekend from California. He came in to go tornado chasing, but there hasn't been anything to chase while he has been here. So, we got a good visit in.
Gary
Posted by at May 30, 2005 5:52 PM
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I know that it is harder to predict changing and poor weather than it is stable conditions under a high, so I appreciate all you guys are doing. Mother nature sure isn't making it easy for you. My question today concerns the flow maps you use. I notice the charts and maps you use have 500mb level measurements. At what level or above sea level altitude do you get 500mb or the 1000mb measurements in a chart Ms Krumheuer used a day or two ago? Thanks for the information.
MIKE:
The 500mb level is about 5,500 meters or 18,000 feet up... and the 1000mb level is pretty much at the "surface"
Jamie
Posted by: Mike from Warrensburg at May 31, 2005 2:13 PM
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Gary,
We went to Wilson, Kansas over Memorial Day and experienced a beautiful wall cloud first hand Saturday evening. The sky looked really dangerous, but we did not get any of the beneficial rain. The temps cooled off nicely and made for great festival weather!
BTW- you and your action weather team are the best!
Traci,
Thanks for the kind comments. There are more chances for rain showing up.
Gary
Posted by: Traci Stahl at May 31, 2005 2:27 PM
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Well, I am glad for you, but for us, my birch trees are dropping yellow leaves - a local severe deficit in rainfall - is it because I moved here, or has Blue Springs always had a problem with droughty conditions? Is it the heat-island effect of the metro, somehow???
I feel that in this case the southeast winds brought in drier air and killed the storms. As we say in my family: "IT CAN ONLY HAPPEN TO THE DOG"
I will believe real rain when I see it.
A VERY PESSIMITIC STORMDOG
Stormdog,
I understand your pain! Blue Springs will get a nice thunderstorm soon!
Gary
Posted by: Storm at June 1, 2005 7:33 PM
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