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No surprise today! What's next?

Today was a very interesting day. Actually, just a stronger version of what happened Tuesday morning. Yesterday we saw the high likelyhood of thunderstorms lasting all day and centered near Kansas City. We are in the right rear quadrant of the exiting jetstream and storm system moving across the northern Great Lakes. This is an area where if you have moisture available thunderstorms are the result. We have moisture available and KCI airport is approaching 3 inches. The areas to the south are about to get hit as well, but not as much.

Oh my! Look at early next week. There are many ingredients coming together for a widespread heavy rain event, and in JULY. It may heat up for a day or two and that is it for a while.

Below is the forecast rainfall for the 60 hours ending next Tuesday. Natural fireworks may be on the way.

Click to enlarge The red areas show 3 to 5 inches of rain possible

Posted by at 3:02 PM | Comments (6)

No Heat Wave, just Nice summertime weather

I am back from vacation. It was a nice time to get away and sleep in. The weather has settled into summer like it is suppose to do in late June.

Kansas City averages 4.42" of rain in July and around 3.5" in August. And, this is what I am expecting this summer. We haven't had a heat wave yet, and I don't see any in the near future. A cold front is coming through Thursday and there are others to follow. The best chance of rain may arrive Sunday into mid next week. Look below at the forecast rainfall from the GFS this morning for the 60 hour period Monday through Wednesday. Wow! That is a 10" bulls eye!!!! Let's track it and see how it sets up early next week.

Gary Lezak

Posted by at 4:28 PM | Comments (6)

A Hot, Dry Summer?

We had our first rain today in 2 weeks. Amounts were .05" to .25", not much. Wednesday will be hot with highs in the 90s. Is this a trend for the summer? A little bit of rain & a lot of heat? We do not think so. First, a decent cold front will come through Wednesday night, putting an end to the high heat. This front may also bring T-Storms. Also, we are seeing indications that a wetter pattern could be setting up for early July. It could be as wet as early June, we will just have to see how it sets up. Rainy periods DO NOT occur in hot, dry summers. See the total rainfall predicted for July 2-6 by our long range model the GFS. There are some 7" to 9" amounts not that far away!

Click to Enlarge

Posted by at 8:48 PM

Rain is Here!!!

Its raining. 7:30 in the morning and light, I stress very light rain, is falling in the metro. It feels like a jungle. Incredibly humid and rain adding to the humidity. This morning's rain isn't associated with a cold front. It is part of a little twist moving by to our north but there is enough moisture here for the showers to develop all the way in K-C.

When the rain ends later this morning, this afternoon it will feel like a sauna. I am a little concerned the cloud cover today could keep us in the upper 80s. But at this time it is early in the day and we could still see a strong June sun that would warm us into the 90s thus making it feel downright oppresive.
There is another chance of rain tomorrow night.

This is associated with a cool front. I don't like to use the term "cold front" in the summer because very rarely is there truly cold air behind the front, just typically cooler air.
Anyway, once this front passes it should be less humid with temperatures in the 80s the rest of the week.

Have a great day, enjoy the rain.

Brett

Posted by at 7:58 AM

Interesting Radar

Another dry day in Kansas City! The radar is very interesting tonight, however. Take a look below. Rain is all around us... just not HERE!

Click to enlarge

There is a line of showers and thunderstorms moving through Iowa... that is moving East. The southern edge of that line is moving more southeast... so it is clipping Northeast Missouri. Close... but it will NOT hit us here.

There is also shower and thunderstorm activity to our southeast... this is moving South... so that also will NOT hit us.

Another area of rain is to our west... moving through Kansas. These thunderstorms are moving Northeast... and we are seeing NEW development across portions of Nebraska. This is the area we will watch to see if it starts drifting in our direction.

The NAM model has picked up on this... putting the smallest bit of precip here by 1am:

Click to enlarge

However... the GFS does NOT pick up on this, keeping us dry:

Click to enlarge

Soooo... the chance isn't the best... but we will keep watching it! The best shot of rain would be our northern counties. We'll update this at 10pm during our weathercast!

Jamie

Posted by at 8:06 PM | Comments (1)

Even HOTTER!

Our offical high at KCI has been 93 degrees for THREE days! And over the NEXT three days... expect even WARMER temperatures. Monday and Tuesday, we'll see highs in the middle 90s... and by Wednesday, we could be into the UPPER 90s!

Here is the NAM model forecast for Wednesday evening:

Click to enlarge

You are looking at the 850mb level... (1500 meters or 5000 feet up). LOOK AT ALL THE WARM AIR!! Our 850 temperature is in the mid to upper 20s (Celsius)... that is pretty high. With enough mixing, we could be into the upper 90s on Wednesday. We are expecting a cold front to arrive late Wednesday and into Thursday. The later it (and associated clouds or rain) gets here... the better our chance for upper 90s.

Once that front comes through, we should see a good 10 degree drop in temperature. Here is the AVN model forecast for Friday morning:

Click to enlarge

See the cooler air moving in? The arrows show the direction the wind is coming from... so you can also see the wind shift. On Wednesday, it's a SOUTHWEST wind... and on Friday, it's a NORTHERLY wind. Hopefully, we will also get some rain out of this front... we're drying out fast! No rain since June 13th!!

Have a great day!
Jamie

Posted by at 7:34 PM | Comments (1)

Signs of Change

Don't get me wrong... we still have another SEVERAL days of hazy hot and DRY weather!

BUT we are seeing signs of our upper level ridge weakening over Kansas City! That means the chance of rain will go up by the end of next week.

Below is the GFS model for the overnight period tonight. You are looking at the 500mb flow... about 5,500 meters up. Notice the strong ridge over the southern part of the country.

Click to enlarge

Notice how amplified the flow is... that ridge has kept the mean storm track well NORTH of KC. But that is about to change. By Thursday morning, the flow should look more like this:

Click to enlarge

Notice the ridge has kind of "flattened out". This is a more ZONAL flow... when the storm track is in a more west-to-east orientation. This could be the end to our long dry spell! :)

Hang in there...
Jamie

Posted by at 5:55 PM | Comments (1)

The Three H's Strike Again!

Hazy, Hot and Humid weather will continue through the weekend! There really is no change to the forecast... with sunshine and highs in the lower 90s.

I got to do weather live from the Great Lenexa BBQ Contest tonight at 5 and 6pm. What a fun time!! I met some great people (hello to the "Smokin' on Cloud 9" and "Mad Cow" teams!)... and sampled some great BBQ. Being from Ohio... I never really had GOOD BBQ until I moved to KC! Now I am pretty much addicted. AND I got to meet Jeff, one of the guys in the Kingsford commerical... that was pretty neat, too! :)

This evening, it really was HOT in the sun... but if you could find a spot in the shade, it wasn't too bad. The nice breeze helped to cool things off just enough! Unfortunately... there will be LESS of a breeze Saturday. So it might feel a bit HOTTER.

I will blog more this weekend about rainfall chances that come into the forecast next week. The ridge is showing signs of breaking down over KC. Stay tuned... and stay cool!
Jamie

Posted by at 10:12 PM

Planets Align

Hi,
Back to the astronomical matters today. If it isn't going to rain we might as well get a celestial show out of a quiet warm weather pattern. Tonight, a chance to see 3 planets (Saturn, Venus and Mercury) very close together just after sunset. Look out to the west-northwest. The place to be to see an event like this is to be away from city lights.

Have a great weekend,

Brett

Posted by at 8:13 AM | Comments (1)

Heavy Rainfall Nearby

We had 8" to 11" of rain from May 30th to June 12th. It is now getting dry, as all of a sudden it has not rained in 10 days, since June 12th.

A cold front looks as if it will sag into far northern Missouri this weekend. Along and north of this front there could be some very heavy rain (2" to 4" in the purple & red colors, see map below). It looks like the Kansas City area will receive just clouds and maybe an isolated shower or T-Storm on Saturday. This front will lift back north on Sunday. There are growing signs that we could have decent rain chances June 30th to July 7th. Hopefully, not on the 4th. More on this on later blogs.

Click to Enlarge

Posted by at 4:42 PM

Mars Chain Letter Hoax

Hello!
I am back from vacation... and have been going through all the emails that have piled up while I was away. One of them in particular, has caught our eye...

We have received a few emails from viewers wondering about a chain letter regarding Mars. The chain letter states the Red Planet will be as big as the full moon during the month of August.

THIS IS NOT TRUE... IT IS A HOAX EMAIL!

This is from Sky & Telescope Magazine's website:

Bogus Mars Chain Letter
June 10, 2005 |
Another e-mail chain letter touting bogus astronomy is spreading across the internet. The letter, sometimes titled "Mars Spectacular," claims that on August 27th Mars will dazzle the world, appearing brighter than ever in history. The problem is that "August 27th" is actually August 27, 2003. Mars did have an unusually close pass by Earth that month — but since then, the chain letter has morphed in some versions to the point that Mars is supposed to look like the full Moon.

A few years ago dozens of radio stations called Sky & Telescope about a chain letter claiming that the Moon was about to swing so close to Earth that it would turn night into day. I came up with a standard patter: "This chain letter is a good thing, not a bad thing. It's like an immunization. If you make a fool of yourself sending it to all your friends and family, you'll be less likely to send them the next chain letter, which may not be so benign."

Sooooo... Mars will NOT be as big as the chain letter says... but in the FALL you will be able to see it as a very bright star! It will NOT be as big as the full moon.

Speaking of full moon's... TONIGHT is the FULL "STRAWBERRY" MOON! The moon gets it's name from the fact that the strawberry harvest typically comes to an end during the month of June. In Europe, I believe they call it the Rose Moon... although I am not sure why! If you know, I would LOVE to hear about it! krumheuer@nbcactionnews.com

As for the WEATHER here in KC... not much is changing. We will still have to watch the front to our North on Friday night into Saturday. But right now it looks like it WILL stay north. Here is the latest NAM model for Friday night:

Click to enlarge

Meantime, the 90s continue!! Great pool weather, anyway! Gary is on vacation until next Wednesday, so I will be here in the evenings. Hope you have a great night!
Jamie

Posted by at 5:34 PM

Ozone Action Alert Day

It is the first Ozone Action Alert day this summer. The Mid-America Regional Council issues Ozone action days when ozone levels reach unhealthy levels for sensitive groups. Here is the way MARC describes Ozone and its effects on the metro. This is from their website "Ground-level ozone is created by chemical reactions between certain pollutants, heat and sunlight. Motor vehicle and industrial emissions, as well as vapors from gasoline and chemical solvents are major contributors to the formation of ground-level ozone. However, weather is an important factor, too. Hot, sunny days with calm winds can cause harmful concentrations of ground-level ozone. While atmospheric ozone — the “ozone layer” 10 to 30 miles above the earth — provides protection from the sun’s ultraviolet rays, ground-level ozone is harmful to people and crops. It is responsible for an estimated $500 million in reduced crop production in the United States each year, because it makes plants more susceptible to disease, insects and harsh weather."

With that in mind and a stagnant weather pattern overhead tomorrow and maybe even Friday we will likely have more Ozone Action Days.

For those of you hopeful for rain, there is a glimmer of hope. Friday into Saturday a cold front approaches that could possibly spark a shower.
Here's a look at one of the models. The first graphic is precipitation.

The second map is a forecast for relative humidity and vertical velocities or how much is the air rising. Typically the more rising air, the better the chance of rain.

Otherwise, grab the sunglasses and enjoy an early season hot stretch.

Brett

Posted by at 8:31 AM | Comments (2)

No Heat Wave

We have received a few messages about heat waves. A heat wave is a stretch of at least 3 consecutive days above 95 degrees. So, this week we are seeing near 95 or lower and it just is typical summertime weather.

A change is already showing up, but there is some debate on whether the cold front will make it through us Saturday. If it gets close it may trigger some thunderstorms. Below is the 84 hour ETA or NAM valid Saturday morning. The front is falling apart right here with some thunderstorms around.

I am on vacation for a week. Windy, Stormy, and I will be going on walks, relaxing and just getting some rest, plus I am going to Chicago to celebrate my Grandma's 97th birthday.

Gary Lezak

Posted by at 10:28 PM

Hot Time, Summer in the City

Hey,
I don't why but songs always pop in my head when I think of weather trends. Like "Hot Time, Summer in the City", a hit song recorded in the 60s by the "Lovin Spoonfuls". Cities can be hotter than outlying areas due to something called the"Urban Heat Island Effect"
Cities have buildings and concrete which absorb and hold heat, while cars and factories create heat. Combine all these factors, along with lower wind speeds due to large buidlings and some days downtown Kansas City will be 3 degrees warmer than places like Olathe or Liberty.
The "Urban Heat Island" effect can really be accentuated at night when on calm, clear nights cities can be 18 degrees warmer than the nearby suburbs.
With this in mind and the fact that over the next 7 days our daytime highs may be above 90 we all may be ready for "A cool change" at the end of the month. By the way, "A Cool change" was a hit by the Little River Band in the 70s. A Cool Change is what Australians call cold fronts.

Have a great day,

Brett Anthony

Posted by at 7:59 AM | Comments (2)

The heat creeps in

As the anticyclone builds to our west the heat will gradaully take over. The upper high (anticyclone) is forecasted to strengthen and then move over Kansas and Missouri late Wednesday and Thursday. The surface high pressure area to our northeast is finally weakening and shifting eastward and this should provide a southerly breeze, to maybe even southwesterly wind. The more westerly the wind the hotter it will get.

The GFS this morning clearly breaks down this anticyclone and thus any chance of a major heat wave. So, those of you out there concerned that this is the beginning of a long, hot, dry summer just relax. It is still too early to tell. Below is the 500 mb forecast by the GFS for Wednesday (60 hours), and for next Wednesday (240 hours). Notice the ridge saying "goodbye", and the circle to our south is actually an upper low. If this happens rain will soon follow.

Click to enlarge (500mb Wednesday)

Click to enlarge (500 flow next Wendsday)

Posted by at 4:08 PM | Comments (3)

The Anticyclone?

An anticyclone is setting up over the southern Rockies. This is the opposite of a storm system, thus the word "anti". Some summers are completely dominated by large anticyclones, like in 1980 and 1988. But, recent summers have not had strong anticyclones, and it is too early to tell if this summer will have a strong one. The current set up is for this anticyclone to weaken and likely shift to the southeast part of the nation soon. We could have a moist flow around the periphery of the circulation, and in the mean time with it being to our west we will likely go into north flow aloft as seen below. Look to the north and we will see if thunderstorms move our way by Tuesday.

Click map to enlarge

Gary

Posted by at 9:05 PM | Comments (2)

Summer Solstice

Summer begins at 1:46 AM Tuesday. This is known as the Summer Solstice. What is a solstice? It is the date at which the sun appears directly overhead at noon the furthest north (tropic of Cancer, 23.5 degrees north of the equator) and the furthest south (tropic of Capricorn, 23.5 degrees south of the equator) during the year.

So, on Tuesday at 1:46 AM the sun will be at it's furthest north point in the northern hemisphere. We will be having our first day of summer, the southern hemisphere will be having their first day of winter, it is the Winter Solstice for them. Refer to the diagram below.

The weather will be right in line with the time of year. We will be dominated by an upper level ridge the next 5-7 days. This means little if any chance of rain with temperatures in the low 90s.

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Posted by at 8:47 PM | Comments (2)

Summer is building in

Summer begins at 1:46 AM Tuesday morning. The jet stream is weakening and shifting north, as it should at this time of year. The pattern is still going through the 77 day cycle, and I just doubt that a long term upper level (heat wave producing) ridge will settle in. The ridge should build and then back off into the southwest before building over the southeast part of the nation. Below you can see the forecast for early next week. Notice the 594 circle over the western Plains and southern Rockies. 594 means 594 decameters, or 5940 meters above the ground. This is where the pressure is 500 mb and thus why we call it the 500 mb chart. This is the level that shows how weather patterns are moving, better than any other level because it is half way through the atmosphere. 0 mb is the top of the atmosphere and 1000 mb is near the surface. So, 500 mb is right down the middle.


Click to enlarge

Anyway the ridge is building into Kansas and should allow the heat to strengthen early next week. The jet stream should flatten across southern Canada next week and this may allow a cold front to get into the region bringing a chance of rain. It looks dry until then!

Jamie is off this weekend. Brett gets to enjoy father's day. Jeff Penner is working Saturday night and I am working Sunday night. We hope you have a great weekend.

Gary Lezak

Posted by at 8:56 PM

Tornado & Rainbow

Click below and you can save this picture to your computer. Right click and then save picture to your desktop, or whereever you want it!

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Posted by at 4:36 PM | Comments (2)

Near Misses

Hi, as Gary pointed out last night, a slight shift west and we would be dry near 80 today. Well overnight I tracked rain and some strong gusty winds that stayed well south of Kansas City giving us a gorgeous sunrise and now a nice day. Looking at just a little of the morning data, it looks like parts of southeast Kansas, NE Oklahoma and southwest Missouri could be in for a real wet night while we see more clouds but still, more than likely, stay dry. In fact, there is data trending toward a very dry pattern here for the next 8-10 days.
Here's a look at the morning NAM Model, It is a simple precipitation map and the only thing to really get excited about is well south of the metro.

Enjoy,
Brett

Posted by at 10:34 AM

Thursday storm?

We are presently in northwest flow aloft. A disturbance is heading our way and Thursday is an interesting day of weather. Thunderstorms are currently moving and developing into western Kansas. The data this afternoon is converging on a solution that brings thunderstorms across most of Kansas Thursday, centered on the Topeka to Emporia area. A slight shift east and most of us will have a wet Thursday and temperatures could get caught in the 60s. A slight shift west and we will have some clouds with temperatures near 80. We are leaning in the rainy direction, but let's see what tonight's data shows.

Gary

Posted by at 5:40 PM | Comments (1)

Eight is Enough

Good morning,
Since the 30th of May, 8.71 inches of rain have fallen at K.C.I. That is nearly five inches more than normal for that time frame. Below I have listed some of our WeatherNow site rain gauge measurements.

The Plaza -------8.86"
Prarie Village---8.69"
Overland Park----11.44"
Lee's Summit-----8.26"
Lawrence---------8.23"
Shawnee----------9.60"

Needless to say we could use a dry spell here for about a week. This morning's model runs bring rain close to Kansas City but right now it looks like we will miss out on the rain but get a good bit of cloud cover as a result.

Here's the GFS model which paints very light precipitation here
for Thursday morning.


Have a great day,

Brett Anthony

Posted by at 6:27 AM | Comments (2)

WOW

What a beautiful start to this Tuesday! Bright blue sky... comfortable temperatures and lower humidity! That is key for me... that means I can start running outside again! ;)

We will see dry and relatively comfortable conditions for the next several days... it really looks like a quiet forecast.

As Gary mentioned in his last blog entry... we will have to watch things on Thursday... as a piece of energy will be tracking just west of KC. Here is a look at the GFS model for Thursday morning:

Click to enlarge

Notice just west of KC, the model is trying to bring in some precip. It looks like the rain would stay west. We are keeping it out of the forecast for now... but we'll have to watch it. If we DO see rain... it will be brief... ie, not sticking around day after day!

In fact, going into the weekend, we have a nice blocking pattern setting up. Here is a look at the GFS for Saturday:

Click to enlarge

That means a nice weekend for outdoor activities!

Brett Anthony is back on the morning show starting tomorrow. I am off to Ohio for a little wedding-planning! :)

Have a great week,
Jamie

Posted by at 6:33 AM

A major change to the pattern

The severe weather producing part of our weather pattern is now OVER. As summer approaches next week the jetstream weakens and becomes less of a factor from here on out. There will be some chance for severe weather at times over the summer, but severe weather season can now be declared over!

Thunderstorms can still occur during the summer. In the flood of 1993 we had thunderstorms every day around our region. So, what will happen this summer? I think it will be about average on temperatures and rainfall.

Click to enlarge

Above you will see the 500 mb flow for Wednesday. We have to watch for possible thunderstorm development to our west and northwest.

Gary Lezak

Posted by at 7:21 PM

More Viewer Photos...

More cool viewer pics, thanks for sending them in!!

Anne from Overland Park calls this a nice sign of hope! She captured this rainbow at 6:30 a.m. Sun. morning as she was letting the dog out!

I love this picture from Matt Freidell. He took this Wednesday night... just outside of Lawrence.

And another from Matt:

AMAZING shot!! Keep 'em coming!
Jamie

Posted by at 8:58 AM

Last Day

This will be our last day with showers and thunderstorms for awhile! We have some activity ongoing this morning, mainly south of KC. This area of showers/thunderstorms is pretty spotty, and continues to move northeast. You can see where the rain is falling right NOW by checking out LIVE TRIPLE ACTION DOPPLER.

A cold front is STILL west of Kansas City! It will finally pass through this evening... but before it does, we could see additional thunderstorms fire up this afternoon. As daytime heating increases... so does our instability. Some of the storms could be strong with gusty winds, hail and heavy rain.

Once the front is through, northwest winds will usher in cooler, drier air!
Jamie

Posted by at 6:34 AM

WATCH UPDATE

I mentioned this in my 5pm show... but in case you didn't catch it:

...TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 465 HAS BEEN CANCELLED...

THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES ARE NO LONGER UNDER THE TORNADO WATCH...

NEMAHA MARSHALL BROWN
JACKSON RILEY POTTAWATOMIE
JEFFERSON GEARY SHAWNEE
WABAUNSEE DOUGLAS MORRIS
OSAGE LYON FRANKLIN
COFFEY ANDERSON

SOME CITIES NO LONGER UNDER THE TORNADO WATCH...

EMPORIA OTTAWA LAWRENCE
JUNCTION CITY TOPEKA MANHATTAN
MARYSVILLE HIAWATHA

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

Posted by at 5:55 PM | Comments (3)

MORE Thunderstorms

I don't have much time tonight... because of ongoing thunderstorms... but I wanted to update you on our severe weather situation.

Right now, the following WATCHES are in effect:

A TORNADO WATCH until 10pm for EASTERN KANSAS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH until 11pm for WESTERN MISSOURI.

A FLOOD WATCH until Monday afternoon for the ENTIRE VIEWING AREA.

An line of thunderstorms is moving into extreme Eastern Kansas and Western Missouri. As of now... there have been NO tornado warnings with any of the cells. We have had several severe thunderstorm warnings, however. The main threat with these thunderstorms is damaging winds and large hail. The reports I have been getting in are wind gusts up to 70 mph... and hail up to 1" in diameter. Also, of course, heavy rain and frequent lighting.

Remember, a severe thunderstorm can produce a tornado with little or no warning. When severe weather is in your area... stay indoors, away from windows! You can check out the current warnings at the PLEASANT HILL NWS WEBSITE.

We will be here tracking the storms for you throughout the evening!
Jamie

Posted by at 3:54 PM

Hang In There!

Showers and thunderstorms are STILL in the forecast as we go into the second half of the weekend. The timing of the precip for Sunday looks like a few possible in the AM... but the best chance being in the afternoon and evening. Some of the storms could contain gusty winds, heavy downpours or hail... we will keep an eye on things.

Showers and thunderstorms will linger into Monday... but then comes the improvement!! Take a look at the 500mb flow (18,000ft up) for this weekend:

Click to enlarge
Notice the TROUGH in the western part of the country. This is where the lines dive from NORTH TO SOUTH. Troughs are associated with stormy weather... and this one in particular has kept us pretty active the past week!

Next... take a look at what happens Sunday night/Monday:

Click to enlarge
Now the trough is in the middle of the country. Closer to KC... and bringing us a chance of heavy rain, strong storms. This would be Sunday night into Monday morning.

But then comes the good news! Notice the placement of the trough on Wednesday:

Click to enlarge

The trough is now east of us... and noitice a RIDGE building in from the southwest. This is where the lines surge from SOUTH TO NORTH. Ridges are associated with dry and relatively nice weather.

Soooo... hang in there! The active weather pattern will soon be over!

Hope you're enjoying the weekend!

Posted by at 9:10 PM | Comments (1)

Weekend Rain again!

This weekend we are expecting three rounds of rain and thunderstorms. Late Friday night and Saturday Morning should be round 1. Round 2 should arrive early Sunday. Round 3 arrives Monday morning. Below is the forecast total rainfall for all of the events. I am expecting 1 to 2 inches across the KC Metro area. There could be over 8 inches of rain, especially over southern Kansas.

Thank you for all of the positive response from our coverage of this week's severe weather. We work hard, and will continue to strive for excellence!

Posted by at 3:47 PM | Comments (2)

Friday Forecast & More Viewer Pics!

Good Friday morning to you! We made it through another week... an active weather week, at that! And this morning, more showers are moving through the Metro. Skies look pretty ominous with all the dark clouds around as the sun comes up! Some areas are seeing showers... maybe a few rumbles of thunder... but the entire area has been weakening as it has moved in.

Here is a funny email we received this morning:
"Gary,
Watched your 10:00pm report and you predicted rain around 6:00am today. I keep an eye on the radar most of the time. I told my wife that you were wrong, that it would probably track north of the city. I got up this morning about 5:50am. As I was fixing coffee I heard this noise on the roof,RAIN. I looked at the clock and it was 6:00am. Of course, by 6:02am it had quit. How did you do that? You know I will hear about this for the next month!"
(That was sent in by Terry in KCK!)

We will continue with a chance of showers and thunderstorms through this afternoon... with scattered activity carrying on into the weekend. It is a tough forecast day-to-day... as each passing thunderstorm complex lays new boundries to work with! Over the weekend, it should not be a complete wash-out... but some of us could see some pretty heavy rainfall!

Here is a look at LIVE TRIPLE ACTION DOPPLER. You can see where the rain is falling right NOW.

Many of you have asked to see the Oskaloosa, Kansas tornado video again... and I am happy to report, it is up on our ACTION NEWS VIDEO page!

I also received a few more viewer photos!

These are from Traci Stahl... cool clouds as Wednesday's thunderstorms moved past her home west of Spring Hill. She says they got a lot of wind and a little rain out of those storms! Thanks, Traci, for sending them in!

Next we have a photo from Frank Sereno, employee/producer and unofficial storm chaser for NewsRadio 980 KMBZ. He took this picture just south of Ottawa, KS (Franklin Co.) Wednesday evening.

Frank says he saw semi-organized circulation with this storm.

We also received some lightning photos from Corey Whitworth... who works here at NBC Action News!

And last, thanks to Ladd Epp for capturing our Oskaloosa tornado images off the 6pm news last night. I know a lot of you are wondering about photos without the banner/graphics... but this is as good as I can do right now!

Thanks to each of you for sending these in!!
Jamie

Posted by at 6:04 AM

More Viewer Pics

I thought I would post more storm pictures we recieved from our viewers! Enjoy!

This is a shot of the Oskaloosa tornado from Wednesday. Matt Miller took this looking East towards Oskaloosa from Valley Falls. He says it was an incredible sight:

And here is a neat cloud shot from Carol Tatum. She took this picture during Tuesday's severe weather. She says the sirens went off in Knob Noster!

If you'd like to share storm pics... email us at weather@nbcactionnews.com or krumheuer@nbcactionnews.com
Thanks!
Jamie

Posted by at 8:02 AM | Comments (2)

Tough Forecast

We continue to be in a warm, moist and unstable airmass today. Ongoing showers this morning are moving east across the southern part of our viewing area. But those of you to the north are starting off nice and quiet! We will watch for the chance of showers and thunderstorms to continue through the day.

And while we will stay in the same airmass through the weekend, the chance of showers and thunderstorms will also persist each day! The forecast is tough, though, on timing and exact location of the storms. We will keep you updated as we continue to get new data into the forecast center!

Here is a round-up of storm reports from yesterday evening's thunderstorms:

Click to enlarge
And here is a link to the SPC if you are interested in reading the text!

Also... we have some pretty amazing exclusive video of a tornado touching down near Lake Perry, KS. If it's not up on the website later today... I am sure we will run it again this eveing at 5 or 6 pm! You've GOT to see it!

Jamie

Posted by at 6:13 AM | Comments (3)

Steamy Streak

We continue to be on the WARM side of our frontal boundry. Here is the latest surface map... showing the cold front:

Click to enlarge

The aforementioned front will slowly move toward KC the next couple of days. This will keep us with warm, humid conditions... AND the threat of thunderstorms each day.

Thunderstorms need three ingredients to get going:
1) Moisture
2) Instability
3) Lift

We definitely have the moisture! Check out our dew points:

Click to enlarge

The instability is there, as well. Here is a look at our forecast CAPE values (Convective Available Potential Energy) for this morning:

Click to enlarge

Sooooo... until the front comes through, this will be our set-up. The front isn't set to come through until the late weekend! Any storm could contain heavy rain, frequent lightning and gusty winds. We will keep an eye out for anything severe as we go through the day.

Jamie

Posted by at 7:03 AM | Comments (6)

Severe Thunderstorms?

We received a comment from one of our Bloggers concerning a statement in the forecast discussion from Norman, OK. One of the forecasters says that they are seeing one of the best set ups for severe weather they have ever seen.

Well........It IS NOT as good as a set up as May 2003, or May 2004, let's make this clear. And, it is too early to say where the tornadoes and severe thunderstorms will be located during the next 7 days. We will look closely at it soon. Even with this said below is the upper level (500 mb) flow for Friday night. Notice the negatively tilted troughiness in the western part of the country. This will cause low pressure to redevelop each day back across Colorado or the western Plains. This would present the serious tornado threat out in those locations west of our area. But, as I said let's see how it sets up.

A lot of rain is likely with this set up at this time of the year. Certainly a very interesting weather pattern. But, it is just PART OF THE CYCLE, the 77 day cycle. I have talked about how this set up in early November and it continues. Now with high humidity in place at the low levels the same tame pattern may become wild.

Gary

Posted by at 4:35 PM | Comments (1)

More rain later in the week!

Below you will see the rainfall forecast for Friday through Sunday. The red areas indicate 3 to 4 inches and locally 5 inches or more could fall.

What is happening? A slow moving, and strong upper level storm is now crossing the west coast. It will take 5 days for this to pass the region. A front will likely be near by. Remember a front is a wind shift line and it is near the front where the air is forced to rise as the winds converge together. As we approach the weekend we will know a lot more. The Bayer Classic Senior Golf tournament is going on this weekend, so hopefully the rain will fall mostly at night.

There is a threat of some severe weather, but at this moment I don't see anything close to the set up we had Saturday night.

Posted by at 4:31 PM | Comments (4)

Changes Ahead

What a GREAT day weatherwise! We saw mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies today, with highs in the upper 70s to right around 80 degrees. It felt so nice because our humidity came down a lot! Dew points went from the lower 70s on Saturday to upper 50s/near 60 today! It really feels refreshing! :)

Here are the storm reports from yesterday's thunderstorm activity. Quite a few across Kansas and Missouri:

Click to enlarge

If you'd like to see the item-by-item list... you can check out the SPC'S website. There are just too many to list!

Anyway, after all the rain we have seen, there are still river flood warnings in effect for many of our waterways. Minor to moderate flooding is occuring in these areas... use caution if you are nearby! These waters will slowly go down over the next few days.

So while we have time to dry out and catch our breath after yesterday's action... it won't be quiet for long! We are expecting a steamy week, with highs in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees. Things will start to get unsettled on Wednesday... and we'll go into next weekend with the threat of showers and thunderstorms almost daily. It is a tricky forecast, and something we will be updating with each model run. As of now, just about a 30% chance of thunderstorms each day.

Hope you had a great weekend... I will be in for Brett Anthony in the mornings starting on Wednesday. So I will try to do some early blogs! :)

Jamie

Posted by at 6:09 PM | Comments (2)

Viewer Storm Pictures

I thought I would post these facinating thunderstorm pictures. First, some interesting clouds overhead as the storms moved in to Atchison this evening.

Thanks to Jan Denney for sending in this photo!

Next... we have a few dramatic pictures from a thunderstorm that passed by Hiawatha in Brown County, Kansas. This thunderstorm was one of the first ones that turned severe this afternoon... and it prompted a tornado warning, for obvious reasons:

Michelle Vitt sent these in... she says Cathy Gundersen took these pictures today from Hiawatha. She was looking towards the south... time was 4:30.

That goes with our confirmed reports of a tornado touch down... A trained spotter reported a tornado around 4:20pm near the town of Baker (south of Hiawatha). Thanks for the awesome pictures!!

And last... some flooding pictures from Ottawa Kansas late this afternoon.

Thanks to Richard Oglesby of Ottawa, Kansas for sending these in!

Jamie

Posted by at 11:00 PM

MORE Rain

What a wet couple of days for us! Overnight, parts of the Metro picked up some whopping rainfall totals. Here is an area round up:

Independence: 4.30"
Lees Summit: 5.00"
Liberty: 2.10"
Lawrence: .68"
Weston: .51"
Downtown: 1.35"
KCI: .88"

Now we are tracking severe thunderstorms that popped up this afternoon across central Kansas. Some of these storms have a history of producing tornadoes... and many of them have prompted either tornado warnings or severe thunderstorm warnings.

Here are some of the damage reports we have received:
*Tornado on the ground near Baker, KS in Brown County. Damage to some structures... power lines down.

*Tornado on the ground 2 mi. NE of Fillmore, MO... spotted from intersection of Highway Y and 71.

*1.5" Hail near Morrill, KS in Brown County

*Flash flood in Junction City, KS... several city streets and intersections underwater. Stranded cars... impassable roads.

*Wind damage 3 mi. NW of St. George, KS... Powerlines down near Lake Elbo.

*Flash flood 5 mi. S of Riley, KS... water over Williston Point Rd, causing logs and debris to flow over it.

There have been MANY more reports... these are just a few of the more interesting ones.

The area of thunderstorms is heading very slowly towards Kansas City. At this point, it looks like they will reach the Metro after 9pm.

In addition to the severe weather threat, the thunderstorms' slow movement and heavy rains will continue our flooding problem. Check out the rainfall totals west of us just this evening:

Click to enlarge

Some areas have seen more than 3" (Doppler estimate)... and the line is heading our way. The ground in our area is already saturated, and rivers, streams and creeks are running high. Watch for rising water, and do not cross any water covered roads!

We will keep you posted through the evening.
Jamie

Posted by at 6:25 PM | Comments (3)

Good Early Morning!

Maybe the heavy rain and thunder woke you up! It is about 12:30am and we have some pretty good rain-makers moving through! You can check LIVE TRIPLE ACTION DOPPLER to see where the heaviest storms are!
Some of the storms across the viewing area are dropping rain at rates of close to an inch in just 45 minutes!

Nothing severe at this point... but definitely some torrential rainfall! There have been flash flood warnings issued for Johnson, Leavenworth, Miami, and Wyandotte Counties in Kansas. The main thing to remember here... stay away from streams and creeks that are running high, and DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH WATER-COVERED ROADS! This is especially dangerous at night, because you can't really SEE much. The NWS has a saying that goes, "Turn around, don't drown." Very smart thinking, as it only takes a few feet of flood water to float and carry a vehicle.

There is also frequent lightning with these storms... I am trying to capture it on a timelapse. Hopefully I can catch it in a few frames! If it all works out, I will try to show it Saturday evening.

Speaking of which... more thunderstorms are forecast to move in late Saturday evening! Gary blogged about it below... so while the afternoon will be nice... more rain is on the way!

When it rains... it pours!! :)
Jamie

Posted by at 12:25 AM | Comments (7)

Severe weather Saturday night?

Conditions are coming together for severe thunderstorms Saturday night. High dewpoints, a slow moving front, and a strong upper level storm moving across Nebraska will combine to help form a line of thunderstorms Saturday after 6 PM, and more likely around 10 PM. Below is the precipitation forecast for Saturday night.

Click to enlarge

Gary

Posted by at 9:46 PM

More Rain on the Way...

We've seen a pretty nice day today... dry and warm, with highs near 80 degrees. But things will become stormy again over the next 12 hours or so!

Tonight, we will watch for a complex of thunderstorms to develop in Nebraska/Kansas. These will be drifting towards Kansas City overnight and if they hold together, could reach us shortly after sunrise Friday.

It's one wave after another through the weekend into early next week. This is a typical pattern for this time of the year! The GFS model below is forecasting some high rainfall totals over the weekend:

Click to enlarge

It does not look like it will rain ALL weekend... but we could have some periods of heavy rain and thunderstorms. The severe threat is there, too... with strong winds and large hail being the main threats. We will keep you posted!

Jamie

Posted by at 6:16 PM | Comments (9)

Summer is still 20 days away!

It looks like we will warm up the next few days, and the humidity will be quite high as the drier low level air fades away for the season. The dewpoints have been way lower than normal this season. The weather pattern just hasn't been set up to bring in the Gulf of Mexico air. The jetstream is showing signs of weakening, as should happen as we approach summertime. This is allowing the cooler, drier, Canadian air to lose its grip on our region. The higher humidity that we are expecting will only increase our chances of thunderstorms with every passing storm system. Storm systems are still lining up to our west and will bring a chance of thunderstorms every couple of days. The areas that have been so dry could join us with some of the rain soon.

We have yet to hit 90 degrees this year, but we will be making a run at it the next few days. Don't expect summer to settle in anytime soon, however, as the pattern we have been in is just cycling through. Even if it does pop above 90 degrees I see some cool downs every so often as we go into the beginning of summer.

Gary

Posted by at 8:44 PM | Comments (2)

Finally, some SPRING showers!

I got to go watch the Royals/Yankees game last night... it was a good night for the Royals! Also a good night for the fans, as the rain held off until after the game.

It was really amazing how the rain moved in and just stopped at a certain point! Most areas EAST of Kansas City did not see one drop of rain!

But at least some of the KC area got in on the much-needed rainfall! This ONE rain event has put us back up above normal in terms of rainfall totals. Our average precipitation for the month of May is 5.39"... and now KCI is up to 5.66". St. Joseph is also above average with a whopping 7.98".

Some areas that are still lacking include Lee's Summit, with 3.51" and Olathe at 3.27".

It's still a very spring-like pattern... AND we have an active next few days! Gary will blog more about this tonight.

Jamie

Posted by at 5:05 PM