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Signs of Change
Don't get me wrong... we still have another SEVERAL days of hazy hot and DRY weather!
BUT we are seeing signs of our upper level ridge weakening over Kansas City! That means the chance of rain will go up by the end of next week.
Below is the GFS model for the overnight period tonight. You are looking at the 500mb flow... about 5,500 meters up. Notice the strong ridge over the southern part of the country.
Click to enlarge
Notice how amplified the flow is... that ridge has kept the mean storm track well NORTH of KC. But that is about to change. By Thursday morning, the flow should look more like this:
Click to enlarge
Notice the ridge has kind of "flattened out". This is a more ZONAL flow... when the storm track is in a more west-to-east orientation. This could be the end to our long dry spell! :)
Hang in there...
Posted by at June 25, 2005 5:55 PM
Someone once told me if a tropical storm in the gulf region reaches the Corpus Christi area, it could impact us. Is this true or a "wives tale".
What part of ohio are you from? I have friends in Wooster.
Hello there! Once hurricanes make landfall... they weaken to tropical storms or depressions... and eventually take on extratropical charateristics. While a full blown hurricane won't reach KC... the REMNANTS of a hurricane certainly can! Depending on the storm track, of course. And those hurricanes that make landfall farthest west (Texas) would have the best shot at bringing us some rain. (although not EVERY storm that makes landfall in Texas will)
When I was forecasting in Ohio, we got hit by the remants of quite a few hurricanes that made landfall along the Gulf Coast. That lead to flooding problems, with all the heavy rain! I am from Dayton... about 45 minutes north of Cincinnati. I have a lot of family in Cleveland, too... we're a bunch of Buckeyes! :) And I have actually been to Wooster... a friend of mine went to college there! It is a very nice small town! :)
Thanks for posting!
Posted by: Randy Senior at June 26, 2005 4:36 PM