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The Anticyclone?
An anticyclone is setting up over the southern Rockies. This is the opposite of a storm system, thus the word "anti". Some summers are completely dominated by large anticyclones, like in 1980 and 1988. But, recent summers have not had strong anticyclones, and it is too early to tell if this summer will have a strong one. The current set up is for this anticyclone to weaken and likely shift to the southeast part of the nation soon. We could have a moist flow around the periphery of the circulation, and in the mean time with it being to our west we will likely go into north flow aloft as seen below. Look to the north and we will see if thunderstorms move our way by Tuesday.
Click map to enlarge
Gary
Posted by at June 19, 2005 9:05 PM
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Does the seasonal anticyclone have anything to do with significant El Nino patterns occurrring? I remember the 1988 season as an extremely hot and dry season (at least it was in Northern Illinois) and I believe that coincided with a particularly strong El Nino. This year, the El Nino has backed off to about a neutral state. Does that mean the anticyclone will be able to retreat west/southwest and perhaps not become too strong directly over us? Also, does this fit in with your 77 day cycle?
Mike,
This pattern continues to go through the 77 day cycle, and this is why we don't think the upper level ridge will be dominant all summer. There is so much variation to this pattern! So, it will get hot, but then there should be a change soon.
Posted by: Mike from Warrensburg at June 20, 2005 9:50 AM
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Is There a Formula to use to forecast the High for the Day. I know the Low can never go lower then the Dew point but, the Dew Point can go lower.
Steve,
There is no real formula for the high temperature, but you can look at a forecast sounding of the lower levels of the atmosphere and get a pretty good idea what the temperature will be. I still forecast more on feeling, combined with everything else.
Gary Lezak
Posted by: Steve Newport at June 20, 2005 4:02 PM
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