« June 2005 | Main | August 2005 »

A New Week... A New Chance...

The heat will continue to build over the next few days, thanks to our upper level ridge! It is the dominant feature on the latest analysis below:

Click to enlarge

This will keep our highs in the mid-to-upper 90s through mid-week!

Then things will start to change around here! A prtty good cold front is heading our way. It will bring us a chance of rain and even some relief from the heat! The latest GFS has the front moving through on Thursday. Here is a look at the GFS surface forecast for that timeframe:

Click to enlarge

Right now, the models are being pretty skimpy on rainfall AMOUNTS... we will have to wait and see how things look as we get closer.

And here's some more good news... it might not be that long between this rain chance and the next one! We are also seeing the potential for showers next Sunday into Monday:

Click to enlarge

This is a look at the 500mb flow... or 18,000 feet up. It shows the "waves" or pieces of energy that have a little "spin" with them. These waves bring along precipitation chances!

Gary is in Washington DC by now... getting ready for the AMS conference that will last all week. He will give his presentation on Thursday, and then hopefully he'll call us to let us know how it went! :) I will be in for him all week!

On another note, tonight is "Dessert Night" here at the station. Everyone brought in a dessert to share... and we're all going to be riding some pretty massive sugar rushes by the time the 10pm newscast rolls around! ;) So forgive us if we seem jittery!

I thought I would share the recipe for the dessert I brought... it's REALLY good (and quite easy to make)!

BROWNIE DESSERT PIZZA:
1 pkg. Brownie mix, and the ingredients to make them
1 pkg. Cream cheese (I used the 1/3 fat one to save on fat/calories)
1 can crushed Pineapple, drained
2 T. Sugar
1 c. sliced Strawberries
2 sliced Bananas
1/2 c. Pecans
Chocolate syrup

Cut parchment paper to fit on a pizza stone or dish. Make the brownie mix... and pour it onto the paper on the stone. Bake at 375 for 15-18 minutes or until firm... do not overbake! Let cool completely.

Top with the sliced strawberries and bananas. Then sprinkle the pecans... and drizzle with chocolate sauce.

Enjoy!
Jamie

Posted by at 3:23 PM | Comments (1)

Hot but NOT Humid

After our great break in the heat, we our once again seeing highs back to the mid 90s. However, there is a difference this time around. Our heat 10 days ago was accompanied by dew points in the 70s. (The dew point is the temperature at which the air must cool to reach 100% humidity. So, if the dew point is 75 it must cool only to 75 to reach 100% humidity. The air is moist. If the dew point is 55, the temperature must cool to 55 to reach 100% humidity. The air is not that full of mositure.) That being said, today, Sunday & maybe even Monday highs will be around 95, but the dew point will be 58-62. This means the relative humidity is 30-40%. It does not feel as bad as it could. Now by Tuesday, the humidity may go up, making it feel rather oppressive.

There is good news. We are seeing strong indications of a nice cold front by Thursday. This may bring us another drink of water along with a big cool down. A trough extending south from Hudson's Bay to Kansas City will help bring the front through. See the forecasted upper level chart for next Thursday below. We feel pretty confident in this solution as many of our long range models are showing this potential.

Posted by at 3:50 PM | Comments (1)

Warming Again

Brett pretty much summed it up below... the ridge building in will mean lower to middle 90s will be back in full force! The good news... it does not look like the air's MOISTURE content will go crazy high like it did last week. So the heat index will be bearable, at least!

Here is the GFS forecasted position of the jet stream as we head into the weekend:

Click to enlarge

The jet stream flow is NORTH of Kansas City, and where you see the blue areas... those are areas of higher wind speeds. So you can see, the main storm track will STAY north of Kansas City. Now, it's not out of the question that a few isolated showers could drift into our area over the weekend, but MOST areas will stay DRY.

Going towads the END of next week... Thursday/Friday... we see an approaching cold front (finally!) Here is the GFS surface forecast for Friday morning:

Click to enlarge

It is a long way off... and the timing could change... but it's sure nice to see in the forecast!
I am off tomorrow... Jeff Penner is in!
See you Sunday!
Jamie

Posted by at 3:43 PM | Comments (1)

HEAT MAY RETURN

Good Morning,
Time for one of my rare blogs. Seems like with everything that goes on in the morning that before I know it, the morning is over.
At any rate, the weekend is here and it appears heat will try to build over the viewing area this weekend into next week.
Here is a look at a forecast map 84 hours from now and if this plays out then our highs Monday could spike into the mid 90s.

Looking at the map, it looks as if the hundreds would be found over the southwest. By mid-week there are lots of thunderstorms around K-C, a slight shift north or south and we could be in rain but right now we will leave the 7-Day forecast dry.

Have a great weekend and now that we getting close to the end of summer vacations go ahead and send me some of those pictures from your trip. We'll show the pictures on the air and brag on you and the great trip you took on NBC Action News Today from 5 until 7 a.m.

Thanks,
Brett Anthony

Posted by at 7:02 AM | Comments (1)

Quiet Stretch

It was another picture perfect summer day today... with highs in the lower 80s and low humidity. It just feels SO great! Now come the changes, as the warm air builds back in.

On Friday, we'll see highs in the upper 80s:

Click to enlarge

And on Saturday... highs will creep up another few degrees to near 90 in town, and we may even have some lower 90s showing up!

So a quiet period here for the next 7 days... but not the case over in the United Kingdom! Today they saw weather more typical of here in the central US... a tornado touched down in Birmingham! Here are some pictures of the damage... courtesy of the BBC:

The tornado packed winds near 130 mph, which would make it an F2 on the Fujita Scale of Intensity. There are conflicting reports that anywhere from 12 to 20 people are injured... some are serious. Photographers captured some pretty amazing video as the twister seemed to pass right OVER them... we will be running this tonight at 10pm. I will also leave it for Brett, and he may run it again in the morning.

Elsewhere... Tropical Storm Franklin continues to churn in the Atlantic. It is not posing a threat to any land at this time, and the forecast keeps it out at sea. Winds are sustained at 60 mph, with higher gusts. Franklin could strengthen a bit before weakening over the next few days, as it moves north into cooler waters. Here is the forecasted path:

Click to enlarge

There is also another tropical wave in the Atlantic Ocean that bears watching! This one is approaching the Lesser Antilles, and it is looking more impressive on satellite imagery:

Click to enlarge
OR view the LOOP.

Have a great night!
Jamie

Posted by at 7:55 PM

On my way to Washington D.C.

Thursday, August 4th I am presenting my weather pattern theory to my peers and meteorologists across the nation and world. It is something I have been working on, living through, obsessing about for about a dozen years. I noticed a long time ago that weather patterns tend to repeat and a storm that occurs in February often looks similar to one that formed earlier in a particular season. I started collecting data, primarily 500 mb charts and watched very closely over the past 5 years how the weather pattern sets up each fall.

My theory: The weather pattern sets up every year between October 15th and November 5th. It is unique, meaning it has never happened before. The pattern then begins cycling. Every year the cycle is also unique. This past season we had a 73 to 77 day cycle. 2003-2004 had roughly a 54 day cycle and 2002-2003 had a 35-37 day cycle. A trough in the upper levels of the atmosphere occurring in December 2002, would be very similar to troughs that would occur 35 to 37 days later all the way until the pattern finally dies out in late July.

So, it is late July. Is the pattern dying now? Yes! We are seeing strong evidence that the pattern we have been in since last October is finally falling apart. So, now we will wait until a new unique pattern sets up in the fall.

Anyway, I have a 15 minute presentation ready to go to show the evidence of my weather pattern theory. We will call it the "Lezak theory".

More when I return. I hope it rains between now and when I get back.

Gary Lezak

Posted by at 9:51 PM | Comments (5)

WWW

www= WOW for Wednesday Weather!!

What a georgeous day out there! Low humidity... cooler temperatures... it just feels so refreshing! I actually ran outside today vs. the treadmill... I haven't done that since the beginning of July! (I really am a wimp when it comes to heat & humidity!)

I am sooooo jealous of anyone going to the Royals/Sox game today! It will be a picture-perfect afternoon at the ballpark!

...and everywhere else around the Metro, for that matter! Whatever you plan on doing, it will be nice and comfortable, with highs in the upper 70s. Not bad for late July!

Here are some of the rainfall totals from yesterday, as the cold front came through:

KCI: .26"
Downtown: .64"
Olathe: .61"
Brookside: 1.25"
Raytown: 1.19"
Plaza: 1.07"
Lee's Summit: .97"
Leavenworth: .23"
Weston: .09"
St. Joseph: .38"
Kirksville: .48"
Sedalia: .33"
Chillicothe: .21"
Pleasant Hill: .24"
Lenexa: 1.5"
Clinton: .5"

And now those early-morning low temperatures:
KCI: 56
Downtown: 58
Olathe: 58
Lees Summit: 57
St. Joseph: 54
Kirksville: 55
Sedalia: 58
Chillicothe: 55
Pleasant Hill: 57

These readings were pretty close to record-low temperatures! The "official" record low at KCI is 55 degrees... so we were within ONE degree of tying the record.

So what's next? Well, enjoy the cool temperatures today... as we are in for another warm-up. We will be watching a ridge build into the Southwestern US over the next several days. Here is a look at the NAM model for Friday afternoon:

Click to enlarge

Notice the ridge building in... that means warmer temperatures will also be building back in. In fact, our highs will be about 10 degrees higher than today! You can also see that this ridge puts us in a northwest flow. We do not see any major chances for rain here... but it is something we will have to watch.

Enjoy the pleasant day!
Jamie

Posted by at 11:36 AM | Comments (2)

Dramatic July Day

32 degrees colder than yesterday afternoon! Wow! This is a significant event for July.

A strong cold front moved through late this morning. We have conditions favorable for rain behind the front rather than along and ahead of the front. This is the reason there are no strong thunderstorms. Over one inch of rain has fallen in a few spots with around 1/4" in others.

Below is the current radar from Live Triple Action Doppler. The rain should end by early this evening around sunset. I don't see another chance of rain but it could happen within a week.
View image

Gary

Posted by at 5:40 PM

Relief is Here

Its here, its here its finally here. Okay, it wasn't as hot as the August 2003 heat wave, (six days in a row above 100) but it was H-O-T!
Now there is rain on the way with a COLD front! Here is a look a link to Triple Action Doppler.
On top of the much needed rain, here comes some cooler, no wait COLDER air.
Here is a map of 850mb temperatures tomorrow afternoon. I know, I know, no one lives 5000 feet above the earth so why show this map. Well if we take this air and mix it down to the surface we get surface temps in the upper 70s range. So here enjoy.

The HOT weather returns for the weekend.
Have a cool, rainy day.

Brett

Posted by at 7:42 AM

Relief Around the Corner!

After today, just one more HOT day in the mid-to-upper 90s before things start to cool off around here! Tomorrow we will still be on the southern side of our frontal boundary... and the southwest winds will pick up a bit during the afternoon. A nice breeze... but it means more heat & humidity are being ushered in. Here is the surface forecast for tomorrow:

Click to enlarge

In that warm, humid, unstable air ahead of the front... I wouldn't be surprised if we saw a few isolated afternoon thunderstorms tomorrow... but most of us should stay dry.

Then the bigger chance of rain arrives on Tuesday, driven by a cold front. Here is the surface forecast for Tuesday:

Click to enlarge

It still looks like we have the potential for some heavier rains on Tuesday. The NAM is forecasting about a half inch... while the GFS is higher in it's amounts. BUT at this point, I would have to side with the .5" of the NAM.

Temperatures are also tricky on Tuesday... depending on the timing of the rain... we could be quite cool! Regardless... it is going to feel MUCH more comfortable outside as we go into the middle and second half of the week, with highs running a little below average in the lower-to-mid 80s.

Here is the surface forecast for Wednesday....

Click to enlarge

Aaaahhhhh! Relief!! :)
Jamie

Posted by at 5:07 PM | Comments (2)

Excessive Heat Warning

An EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING has been issued for the entire Metro through Monday at 7pm. We are going to continue with temperatures near 100 degrees the next two days... and our dew points are also running high. The two will combine for heat index values in the range of 105 to 110 degrees. Remember the safety tips if you have to be outside:

* Avoid physical activity
* Drink plenty of non-alcoholic, non-caffinated beverages
* Avoid being in direct sunlight
* Wear light colored-loose fitting clothing

Also:
* Check on the elderly, children, and those on certain medications. These groups are the most likely to suffer a heat related illness.

Remember, the KC Parks & Rec have opened up all PUBLIC pools for FREE SWIMMING through Monday. This includes the following:
Swope Park Pool
Brush Creek Pool
Budd Park Pool
Line Creek Pool

And of course, there are always the fountains down at Crown Center! We were down there on Friday... it looked like a lot of fun!! Too bad we were working! :)

Anyway... we are still looking for some relief by mid-week. A cold front is set to head our way sometime on Tuesday. It looks like there will be some heavy rain with this front!! The heaviest looks to be up in Nebraska and Iowa, although we might see some good accumulations here, too. Here is the GFS forecast on rainfall totals through Wednesday evening:

Click to enlarge

If that verifies... we could see an inch or so in some spots. But look at that heavy rain to our north... some places with FOUR inches!! We will keep you updated on how this will play out over the next several days! At any rate... it looks like a nice cool-down behind the front... with temperatures in the lower to mid 80s! Wow... doesn't that sound nice?! Hang in there...

Hope you're enjoying the weekend!
Jamie

Posted by at 8:12 PM | Comments (1)

Rain Tuesday?

Below is the forecast rainfall by the GFS. 3 to 5 inches across Nebraska and Iowa as the front moves through. Any slight change and it will rain here, so let's hope for a slight change.

Gary

Posted by at 3:33 PM | Comments (3)

The Hottest Day of the Year!

The hottest air of the summer season so far will spread into K-C over the weekend. The intense high pressure system extends all the way up to 18-thousand feet or the 500 mb level. You can see the large ridge on the map below. It should give us temperatures over 100 degrees for the first time in 2 years. The ridge appears to be breaking down early next week which should bring an end to the Heat Wave. Have a great weekend.

Brett

Posted by at 6:04 AM

Afternoon Delight

To the delight of hot people everywhere... some parts of the Metro are getting a brief break from the heat this afternoon.

A very short line of thunderstorms is moving through the Metro, from North to South... at about 20-25mph. The line is also weakening as it moves South. If you experience a thunderstorm... it should be brief... lasting only 20-30 minutes. But a good downpour, gusty winds, and lightning are possible.

Click to see the latest image of LIVE TRIPLE ACTION DOPPLER.

This line should be it for the rest of the day... but we will add a SLIGHT chance of thunderstorms for Friday.. as waves are riding around the periphery of our ridge:

Click to enlarge

The good news for those of you that see rain... it has dropped temperatures a good 10 to 15 degrees! The temperature in Weston, Missouri dropped from 91 degrees to 77 degrees! Wow! But it will only add to the humidity.... talk about sticky!

Jamie

Posted by at 3:38 PM

The Dog Days of Summer

What are the "Dog Days" of Summer? Well, we're right in the middle of them! The dog days usually refer to the time between early July and early September. This is when the hottest and most humid conditions of the summer are usually in place.

So where does this time period get its name from? Well, as many of the full moon names... it comes from ancient times! Way back when, people would look to the stars... and try to explain things that were happening on earth through astronomy.

They saw many different images (constellations, that are still visble today) including bears, a bull... AND a dog!! This particular constellation is called "Canis Major".

Click to enlarge

The name means "Great Dog"... (Canis=dog, Major=greater). This is thought to be one of the hunting dogs of Orion... the second dog is "Canis Minor".

ANYway... THE brightest star in the sky (next to the sun) is IN Canis Major. That star is called Sirius, or "the dog star". It is actually the NOSE of the dog! Canis Major is visible during the winter months in the Northern Hemisphere. So what does that have to do with the dog days of summer, you ask??

Well, in the summer, Sirius rises and sets with the sun... this is especially pronounced during late July! People believed that it's powerful heat (Sirius is Greek for "scorcher") added to the heat of the sun, creating a stretch of hot and sultry weather. They named this period of time "Dog Days"... after the dog star!

Very interesting, right?! :)

Well, right on cue... we are going into our hottest period of the year over the next few days! Temperatures could be in the 100s by the weekend! We know that the heat from Sirius is really NOT what causes heat waves... instead we have a big ridge building in. You can see it on the weather map below, over the 4-corners region:

Click to enlarge

That ridge will be building our way over the next few days! Stay tuned for dog-day updates! :)
Jamie

Posted by at 12:23 PM | Comments (3)

Emily Roars Ashore!

Here is a radar image from Brownsville as Emily came ashore around 5:30 this morning. The Forecast for South Padre Island today is Heavy rain and wind with gusts near 92 mph. WOW!!!

Meantime here in K-C. Buster Poindexter sang it best. "Its feeling Hot, Hot, Hot!

Stay Cool, enjoy a pool.

Brett

Posted by at 6:07 AM | Comments (2)

A nice break from the heat!

Was this morning's rain a surprise? Not really. Last night at 10 PM we clearly showed the potential for a stormy start to Tuesday. And, it happened. I love it. A break from the heat and it is now two days in a row below 90 degrees. The heaviest rain fell from near Harrisonville, crossing the stateline to south of Paola and west from there to Emporia. Only light rain fell over most of the Kansas City metro area, but Lawrence had over 1/2 inch which was a nice soaking for them. Below is the rainfall totals for today's storm (estimated by NEXRAD).


The heat wave is still in the forecast and we still see about 4 days in a row of near 100 degrees or perhaps a bit higher. Then, there is a strong indication of the ridge aloft breaking down and a cold front moving in by mid next week bringing some chance of rain and cooler weather. Look below at the surface forecast for 216 hours, or one week from Thursday.
<
/a>

Posted by at 3:03 PM | Comments (5)

Rain, but not for everyone.

Hi,
More early morning rain moved through K-C this morning as the leading edge of real hot air is moving into the metro.

Will we see more early morning rain later this week? Here's a look at some overnight data suggesting a chance as a weak cool front approaches late Wednesday into Thursday.

Even if it rains early Thursday it will signal the start of our first real heat wave of the summer.

Have a blast,

Brett Anthony

Posted by at 7:21 AM

Early morning rain, but is that it?

It may be dry for a while now that a ridge aloft if forecast to build over us and move across the plains states this weekend. We are now forecasting 100 degree heat as you can see on our 7 day forecast. There is still some hope that we will have a few thunderstorms early Tuesday morning, but then we don't see another chance of rain for about a week.

Hurricane Emily is looking stronger this evening. It could bring south Texas a lot of rain, and they need it. But, it will have no affect on us. The remnants of Emily could move all the way west to California. It will be interesting to watch.

Everything else is going well. I still feel that this weather pattern is still cycling through a weak version of what happened this winter. It continues to weaken, but it has not fallen apart. More on this theory of mine later this week.

Gary

Posted by at 8:17 PM | Comments (2)

Finally... an Active Radar!

Sorry for the late entry tonight... I have been watching some thunderstorms to the northwest of Kansas City. This afternoon and early evening... we just had some showers that formed a line along a cold front. But those showers have intensified into thunderstorms as we've gone through the evening! In fact, they have prompted a SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH for parts of Kansas, Nebraska and Iowa. Here is the coverage:

Click to enlarge

As we go through the overnight... thunderstorms will drift southeast and into the metro! Some of them could contain heavy rain and gusty winds.

We will start the day Monday with a chance of thunderstorms... then we should dry out as the front moves to our south in the afternoon. Behind the front, our winds will be in out of the northwest... but temperatures on Monday will still be warm. Not AS warm... but we're talking mid-to-upper 80s vs. the lower 90s we've been experiencing the past several days! And the longer the clouds hang on... the lower afternoon highs will be! A little relief, at least!?

But watch what happens as we go into the second half of the week:

Click to enlarge

See that upper ridge building into the southwestern US?? That means more heat is headed our way. Expect mid-to-upper 90s by week's end. Hot, hot, hot!

And here's the Hurricane Emily update... still a CATEGORY 4... although she has weakened some:
MOTION: WNW 20 MPH
WINDS: 135 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS
PRESSURE: 951 MB...28.08 INCHES

Emily should make landfall on the Yucatan Penninsula late tonight/early Monday morning. Over land... the hurricane will be cut off from it's source of fuel... warm ocean waters. So we do expect some weakening... but once it's back over the Gulf of Mexico Monday afternoon... it could strengthen again.

Have a good one!
Jamie

Posted by at 8:34 PM | Comments (1)

Eying Emily

Hurricane Emily has strengthened into a powerful CATEGORY 4 hurricane! Here are the latest stats:

MOTION: WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH
WINDS: 155 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS
PRESSURE: 937 MB...27.67 INCHES

Emily is moving south of Jamaica this evening... I have been keeping an exceptionally close eye on things... as we are heading there for our honeymoon near the end of hurricane season! So far... no *direct* hit... but Dennis AND Emily came awful close!

Emily is expected to make landfall on Mexico's Yucatan Penninsula Sunday night or Monday morning. Of course a LOT of major resort towns are located here... like Cancun, Cozumel, and Playa del Carmen.

Emily could then continue out over water until it hits Northern Mexico. Here is the forecasted path:

Click to enlarge

As for our weather here... the three H's still rule... hazy, hot and humid! But there is a sign of change... although it may be short-lived. A cold front will head our way Sunday night into Monday morning. Ahead of that front... our winds will pick up... and Sunday should be a breezy, hot afternoon.

Then... the front brings us a chance of showers/thunderstorms. Here is a look at this afternoon's model data:

Click to enlarge

If we get rain and the clouds hang around... our highs could only be in the mid 80s on Monday! RELIEF!! But don't get too used to the sound of 80s... the 90s will be building back in by mid-week.

More tomorrow evening! Hope you're having a super weekend!
Jamie

Posted by at 5:11 PM

A break in the heat by Monday?

Thunderstorms and cooler weather may arrive as early as Monday. Confidence is growing that we will see some thunderstorms with the front as it weakens near Kansas City early next week. Look at the latest 84 hour NAM surface. Rain is forming just north near the front. And, watch out for Hurricane Emily, it could have an affect on our weather within 10 days.

The cold front near the Nebrasaka/Kansas border Monday morning will be weakening and drifting our way. There is a chance we could have excessive rainfall with this set up. We will know a lot more over the weekend.

Gary Lezak

Posted by at 10:15 PM | Comments (2)

Past Weather Question

One of the most common questions we get is:

"Where can I get past weather information?"

Well, here are a few websites:
The NWS Pleasant Hill Climate Page
Weather Underground (under "History & Almanac)
NOAA links to Past Weather

Hope that helps you!
Jamie

Posted by at 3:22 PM | Comments (2)

Active Tropics

The remnants of Hurricane Dennis continue to affect the Eastern part of the country today! Here is a look at the latest surface map:

Click to enlarge

We have seen the clouds from Dennis... but not much in the way of rainfall (a few isolated thunderstorms is about it!) But check out how close the real rain has actually been:

...MISSOURI RAINFALL...
THOMPSON LANDING: 5.52" THROUGH 7 AM CDT TUESDAY
WILLIAMSVILLE: 3.81" THROUGH 7 AM CDT TUESDAY
FISK: 3.75" THROUGH 1 PM CDT TUESDAY
CAPE GIRARDEAU: 3.51"
FARMINGTON: 2.26" THROUGH 7 PM CDT TUESDAY

St. Louis has picked up 1.26" of rain the past two days... with the chance of more showers today!

Then it tapers off towards Columbia, MO... they have only received .08".

And here in KC, of course... nothing!

So what's next... well Tropical Storm Emily has taken no time to get herself organized. The 5th named storm of the 2005 season... here are the latest Emily stats:

MOTION: West at 20 mph
WINDS: 60 mph with higher gusts
PRESSURE: 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES

Emily will be affecting the Windward Islands today and tonight, and is forecast to move into the Southeast Caribbean on Thursday. Here is the forecasted path:

Click to enlarge

Emily is forecast to strengthen over the next few days... possibly another hurricane to track!

Closer to home... we will be watching an approaching weather system of our OWN early next week. Here is the latest model data:

Click to enlarge

There will be a cold front moving in on us... and if you look at the bottom of the image... you can even see Emily forecasted to hit the Yucatan Penninsula!

Jamie

Posted by at 1:48 PM | Comments (1)

When Weather really is Rocket Science!

Hi,
Space Shuttle Discovery is set to blast off this afternoon from Cape Canaveral, Florida. Now you may ask yourself why would flight planners schedule the lift-off for a summer afternoon in Florida where it is very, very common for thunderstorms. In fact, today there is a 40-percent chance of thunderstorms that could delay or scrub the launch.

Well here is an interesting link behind the science of Rocket Science.

http://www1.jsc.nasa.gov/jscfeatures/articles/000000395.html

Have a great day and pray for the safety of the astronauts.

Brett

Posted by at 7:34 AM

Topeka Thunderstorms

Thunderstorms moved north to south across central Kansas today. They moved right through Topeka, but never got as far east as Lawrence. We are still in the circulation around the remnants of Dennis and this is helping those thunderstorms near Topeka to stay west. Wednesday we may see some destablization of the airmass and a few thunderstorms are possible. The best chance is coming in next week with the arrival of a cold front.

Gary

Posted by at 5:36 PM | Comments (1)

Windy and Stormy

We just got a comment:

Dear Gary, my wife and I were wondering what breed of dogs are Windy and Stormy? Are they Heinz 57 mix or full bred.

Thanks for the reply
Randy
Pomona

Randy,

Windy and Stormy are mixed breeds. Windy is a Keshond/collie/shepard mix, and Stormy is like a miniature German Shepard. She may be mixed with shelty or something like that, or perhaps fox, just kidding, I think.

Windy is really getting old. She is now 15 years 8 months old and really slowing down. It will be a difficult year as I know she only has a few months left. I am trying to enjoy every day with her. We had a nice little walk this morning, but she wanted to go back on the air conditioner vent fast. Her Arthritis is her biggest problem. She still see's and hear's quite well. Stormy is 4 1/2 years old.

Above is a picture of Windy eating custard. She only had a few licks. Thank you for asking about them.

Posted by at 4:13 PM | Comments (11)

A band of afternoon thunderstorms & Dennis

Hurricane Dennis moved inland Sunday just east of Pensacola, Florida. I was hoping for a northwest turn, but instead Dennis turned due north. A northwest turn would have brought the rain into Kansas City by tonight, but now we are in an area of subsiding air on the periphery of the tropical system. This should help up rise to 90 or higher the next two days, then cool off slightly before getting even hotter this weekend. Our next cold front is likely around Monday of next week. Hopefully this will bring us some rain.

Above is Live Triple Action Doppler from 3:45 PM this afternoon showing the thundertorms along and south of I-35 just south of Olathe. These are rotating around the tropical system.

Posted by at 4:01 PM | Comments (2)

Tropical Depression, Sounds Like An Oxymoron

Good morning,
Dennis will soon, if it hasn't already, become just a low pressure system. There will likely be little spins off of the low. One of which will move toward Kansas City. But, and here's the big "but", the spin could wash out in central Missouri and we then would see nothing but clouds here in K-C. Looking at all the data, my gut tells me, as humid as it is I would be very surprised if something didn't kick up tomorrow east of Kansas City and move toward us from a sort of backward motion. (East to West, instead of the normal West to East. Anyway, here's a model called the MM5 that I like because I find it to be pretty accurate when it comes to rain or snow. It is valid for tomorrow morning.

On top of all this, there yet another Tropical Depression now in the Atlantic. Never before have we had four named storms this early in the season. It could be a historic year for Atlantic Hurricanes.

Stay Tuned,

Brett

Posted by at 6:38 AM

Dennis Makes Landfall

If you haven't heard... Hurricane Dennis made landfall this afternoon near Pensacola, Florida. It was a Category 3 Hurricane as it came ashore... but has since been downgraded to a Category 2. Dennis will continue to weaken over land into a Depression.

Bands of showers/thunderstorms have developed over Southern Missouri and Arkansas... take a look at the radar image from 4:30 this afternoon:

Click to enlarge

I think this could be the trend over the next few days. We could see spotty precipitation here in Kansas City as Dennis moves North into the bootheel of Missouri. Here is the projected path of Dennis:

Click to enlarge

The best chance of any rain will, of course, be our Eastern viewing area... and the farther East you go... the higher the chances. It looks like we will see increased cloud cover here... which should keep temps down a bit Tuesday and Wednesday.

Jamie

Posted by at 4:23 PM

Still Dealing With Dennis!

Hello, there!
Gary and I (and Mark Clegg) went to the M & S Grill opening party last night on the Plaza. It was a good time... they have some great food there! We met up with some pretty cool people, too (you know who you are)... it was nice to see all of you! :)

We continue to track Hurricane Dennis tonight... which has undergone some pretty good strengthening this evening! A Category 2 storm earlier today... Dennis is now back up to a CATEGORY 3!! Here are the latest numbers:

DIRECTION/SPEED: NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH
MAX WINDS: 125 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 942 MB...27.82 INCHES

There are still a lot of questions regarding the path of Dennis. The hurricane should make landfall tomorrow (Sunday) afternoon or evening. It looks like it might come to shore somewhere between Mobile, Alabama and Pensacola, Florida. But the cone of error extends out on each end, keeping extreme Eastern Louisiana in the possible path... as well areas of the Florida Penninsula farther East. Here is the latest forecast track from the National Hurricane Center:

Click to enlarge

It is also still in question if we will see any rain from Dennis here in KC! The NHC's track says no. But there are a few computer models hinting otherwise. Here is the NAM model from this afternoon... showing 60 hour precipitation totals, ending Tuesday night:

Click to enlarge

Wow, huh?! That would give us an inch of rain or so! Now take a look at the GFS model for the SAME time period:

Click to enlarge

Quite a difference. You can see if Dennis comes farther WEST (like the NAM) we will get rain. But if it goes farther EAST (like the GFS) we could get nothing at all! Right now we are sticking with a 20% chance of rain... but we will keep tracking the storm, and updating the forecast!

Hope you're enjoying the weekend!
Jamie

Posted by at 8:40 PM

Hurricane Dennis...Not Just a Menace?

Hurricane Dennis is now raking central Cuba. It will emerge into the Gulf of Mexico tonight. It is temporarily weakening over Cuba, however, once it gets back over water it will likely regain strength. It should make landfall Monday somewhere between New Orleans and Pensacola. This is the "menace" part of the storm. After it makes landfall it will either move north or northwest and weaken to an area of heavy rain. It may hit Missouri and Illinois. This could be of great benefit to the corn and soybean crop as eastern Missouri and much of Illinois are in a state of drought.

Below we have 2 images (Click to enlarge). 1. The drought monitor. 2. The forecasted track of hurricane and the remnants of "Dennis."

Image 1

Image 2

So, maybe Dennis is not all menace!

Posted by at 4:25 PM | Comments (3)

Major Hurricane

Hurricane Dennis is now a Category 4 Storm... that is considered a major hurricane! Here is a refresher on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Scale, from the National Hurricane Center:

CATEGORY ONE:
Winds are at least 74 mph, and no greater than 95 mph Storm surge is generally 4 to 5 feet above normal. No major damage to building structures... the damage is typcally to unanchored mobile homes, and trees. Some coastal road flooding and minor pier damage.

CATEGORY TWO:
Winds are at least 96 mph, but not over 110 mph, and storm surge is typically 6-8 feet above normal. Some roofing, door, and window damage to buildings. Considerable damage to shrubbery and trees with some trees blown down. Considerable damage to mobile homes, poorly constructed signs, and piers. Coastal and low-lying escape routes flood 2-4 hours before arrival of the hurricane center. Small craft in unprotected anchorages break moorings.

CATEGORY THREE:
Winds are 111-130 mph, and storm surge is generally 9-12 ft above normal. Some structural damage to small residences and utility buildings with a minor amount of curtainwall failures. Damage to shrubbery and trees with foliage blown off trees and large trees blown down. Mobile homes and poorly constructed signs are destroyed. Low-lying escape routes are cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the center of the hurricane. Flooding near the coast destroys smaller structures with larger structures damaged by battering from floating debris. Terrain continuously lower than 5 ft above mean sea level may be flooded inland 8 miles or more. Evacuation of low-lying residences with several blocks of the shoreline may be required.

CATEGORY FOUR:
Winds 131-155 mph, with storm surge generally 13-18 ft above normal. More extensive curtainwall failures with some complete roof structure failures on small residences. Shrubs, trees, and all signs are blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Extensive damage to doors and windows. Low-lying escape routes may be cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the center of the hurricane. Major damage to lower floors of structures near the shore. Terrain lower than 10 ft above sea level may be flooded requiring massive evacuation of residential areas as far inland as 6 miles.

CATEGORY FIVE:
Winds greater than 155 mph and storm surge generally greater than 18 ft above normal. Complete roof failure on many residences and industrial buildings. Some complete building failures with small utility buildings blown over or away. All shrubs, trees, and signs blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Severe and extensive window and door damage. Low-lying escape routes are cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the center of the hurricane. Major damage to lower floors of all structures located less than 15 ft above sea level and within 500 yards of the shoreline. Massive evacuation of residential areas on low ground within 5-10 miles of the shoreline may be required.

So you can see... Dennis is on the upper-end of that scale, as a Category Four! As of the latest report... here are the current numbers on Dennis:
SUSTAINED WINDS: 150 mph, with higher gusts!
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 938 MB (or 27.70 inches)
DIRECTION/SPEED: 15 mph to the Northwest

The center of the storm is expected to make landfall along the south central coast of Cuba this afternoon. There will be major damage here!! Storm surge, dangerous waves, and huge rainfall amounts are expected. Total rainfall accumulations will be five to ten inches over Cuba, with locally higer amounts over the Sierra Maestra Mountains of Southeastern Cuba... they could see 15+ inches here!!

Check out this satellite loop of Dennis! Pretty impressive, with that well-defined eye!

As Dennis moves over Cuba... the hurricane will weaken a bit. But once it moves into the Gulf of Mexico, it will likely begin to strengthen once again! A HURRICANE WARNING is now in effect for the lower Florida Keys... with a TROPICAL STORM WARNING and a HURRICANE WATCH in effect for the remainder of the Keys.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING even extends up both sides of the Florida coast... West AND East. Dennis could be a big problem for the Sunshine State. The ground there is already saturated... as they have seen a lot of rain lately! Some of the inland rivers (like the Myakka and Peace rivers in southwest Florida) are already at flood levels!!

Dennis could eventually make landfall as a major hurricane anywhere between the Florida panhandle and Louisiana. Here is the latest projected path:

Click to enlarge

Of course we will continue to track Dennis!
Jamie

Posted by at 10:34 AM | Comments (1)

The Tropical Topic of Dennis

Greetings, Dennis is now the Atlantic's first hurricane of the season. People in Jamaica are boarding up preparing for Dennis's 90 mile per hour winds. The hurricane is forecast to strengthen and make landfall somewhere along the Gulf Coast. This morning's GFS model keeps Dennis just east of K-C next week dumping some much needed rain over the Mississippi Valley. It then becomes a "cut-off" low and spins just to our east spreading clouds our way but possibly no rain.

Have a great day,

Brett

Posted by at 5:39 AM | Comments (2)

Hurricane Dennis still has its eye on KC

Hurricane Dennis is strengthening today south of Jamaica. If it stays over water it could be a major hurricane as it moves into the Gulf of Mexico this weekend. The latest GFS model this morning takes the hurricane and it makes landfall in Texas or Louisiana and then turns inland right over us. Look at the latest rainfall forecast below for mid next week. The axis of the heaviest rain shows the track well. It will be amazing if it affects us, but it is a week away so we will monitor this closely.

Gary

Posted by at 3:21 PM | Comments (1)

Hurricane Dennis?

The weather pattern is shifting around right now, and although an area of thunderstorms or two may develop near by it may be dry for the most part into the weekend.

So, what is next? Dennis! The tropics are becoming quite active and Cindy is a tropical storm moving into Louisiana right now. Dennis is forming well to the south in the Carribean Sea. We are like a needle in the haystack but the models are all bringing Dennis into the Gulf of Mexico this weekend and then towards KC. Look below at the precip forecast for mid next week. Just follow the axis of the rain from the Gulf coast to Kansas taking aim on us. I would place the chance of this happening at 10% right now. Let's look at it as the days go by.

Gary

Posted by at 9:29 PM | Comments (2)

Fog or Smoke?

Good morning,
Geez, what a smokey sky this morning! Or was it fog? Probably a combindation of both. There is no wind out there this morning. We had some great shots on NBC Action News Today from skytracker of the fog in the valley along the Blue River. Maybe some more tomorrow morning as it appears near identical conditions could set up. Here is something way off topic, but on Saturday I played in the Adams Pointe Golf Club's Media challenge Cup. Adams Pointe will donate 15-hundred dollars to the charity of the winning golfer. I got knocked out in the first round. Anyway, Adams Pointe is nestled in the rolling hills just east of Blue Springs on R-D Mize Road. A challenging course. I recommend giving it a shot. You will probably want to play it again because a little knowledge of the layout of the course, I think, would help your round. O-K, so there is a chance of rain, first one model picked up on it, now it appears the others are agreeing. We shall see. By the way, if you are an avid golfer or know of one, I am starting a daily golf forecast on the morning show. We will highlight one of the area's golf courses and try to give course specific forecasts; i.e. heavy dew, soggy fairways, hard greens.
All righty then on to the maps. The one below from Thursday morning shows rain (not a lot) here from a complex that grows on the high plains overnight.

Posted by at 8:23 AM

Crazy July weather

While Jamie Krumheuer was doing a great job covering the severe thunderstorms Sunday evening, I was on my way back from a holiday party in Louisburg. I arrived at my new house just in time to experience 60 mph winds and a lot of lightning. The house isn't done yet and it was quite tense there for a few minutes as the severe thunderstorm blew in. Stormy was there with me, Windy was at home sleeping.

So, what is next? The computer models have differing solutions on Wednesday and Thursday's chance of rain. The NAM has a very good threat of thunderstorms in northwest flow, while the GFS is close, but does not quite produce the rain that the NAM does. It will depend on the availability of moisture as one of the main factors. Since it is now July I don't think the high pressure area to our north and northeast will be strong enough to keep our dewpoints down. So, I am leaning towards the NAM solution and have a 40% chance of thunderstorms Wednesday into Thursday. Click on the map below to enlarge it and see the rain forecasted by the NAM model for Wednesday night. I should have a better idea tonight on the 10 PM newscast.

Gary

Posted by at 6:06 PM | Comments (1)

I captured a GREAT timelapse tonight... lots of lightning... I hope you got to see it during the 10pm news. If not... maybe Brett or Gary will show it again on Monday!

The thunderstorms that rolled through definitely lit up the sky! Paul Taylor took this photo from his home:

A great shot of a lightning bolt! Thanks for sending it in!!

Showers and thunderstorms will continue overnighrt into Monday morning. The latest data has them lingering into Monday afternoon. Brett will have an update starting at 5am!

Jamie

Posted by at 10:38 PM

Thunderstorms Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 11PM FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN KANSAS... Johnson, Linn, Miami, Atchison, Doniphan, Leavenworth, and Wyandotte.

IN MISSOURI... Andrew, Atchison, Buchanan, Clinton, Dekalb, Gentry, Hold, Nodaway, Worth, Bates, Cass, Platte, and Clay.

Some parts of the viewing area are already seeing thunderstorms... and have had severe thunderstorm warnings, too! The warnings have been prompted by cells with the potential for quarter-sized hail, and winds in excess of 70mph. The warnings have all been in Kansas, and these storms continue to weaken a bit as they move northeast. Take a look at what is going on right NOW on LIVE TRIPLE ACTION DOPPLER.

The threat of thunderstorms will continue with us overnight... when we could pick up some heavier rainfall. This morning's models moved the bullseye of heavy rain away from KC... but this afternoon's run has it back:

Click to enlarge

The red/orange areas are 3-4" of rain... and we are IN it! There IS a lot of moisture to work with... have you noticed it is more humid today? Our dew points are in the lower 70s this evening. That's pretty muggy!

Soooo... not only wind and hail... but also the potential for heavy rain. Therefore, we are also in a FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning!

We will keep an eye on things tonight. Tomorrow we should start off wet, but fireworks tomorrow night look OK right now! Happy 4th... I am off tomorrow hanging out with my visitng parents!
Jamie :)

Posted by at 6:04 PM | Comments (3)

Now for the forecast...

Be sure to check out the viewer photos, posted in the blog below!

Now on to the forecasting part of things...

It is still looking like a good chance of showers and thunderstorms Sunday night and into Monday as a cold front heads our way. Here is the set-up:

Click to enlarge

Increasing instability will allow showers and thunderstorms to develop along the front during the afternoon. It looks like the rain could reach us by the evening hours:

Click to enlarge

Our thinking hasn't changed... we are still looking at the potential for HEAVY rain... flooding could be a concern.

BUT the good news... it now looks like we might see break in the precipitation for Monday afternoon in the immediate Metro. Will the dry weather stick around for the fireworks... or will more thunderstorms develop?? Right now it looks like we may be in a dry period at that time... but the timing of these things is tricky! Stay tuned!

Jamie

Posted by at 6:25 PM

Cool Sunset Pics

Hey, it's time for another addition of viewer photos! This blog entry will include a random group of pictures taken by various viewers on June 30th. The sunset was so beautiful that night! I received many emails showing me... and in case you missed it... here is a peak!

This first picture is from Fred Taylor, Jr. This was taken in Blue Springs:

What a great shot... thanks, Fred!

And for another shot of the sky that same evening... but in a different part of town... we go to Bobbi Burkett:

Bobbi took this in western Leavenworth, and also recieved 3.36" of rain from the storms that moved through that day.

The Cannings took these pictures out their back door in Shawnee:

Thanks Tim, Michelle, Hunter, and Alyssa!

And last... a nice shot sent in by Christine of Kearney, MO. She also took this right around sunset on June 30th.

Mother nature is so inspiring!
Thanks for sharing!
Jamie

Posted by at 5:55 PM

Rain Gone... But Not for Long!

After some parts of the viewing area had a very wet day yesterday, we are enjoying a little time to dry-out! Here is a round-up of area rainfall:

KCI Airport: 3.26"
Downtown: 2.28"
Olathe: .35"
St. Joseph: 33"
Lawrence: .96"
Topeka: 1.81"
Emporia: 2.25"
Knob Noster: .28"
Chillicothe: .25"

Note that the rainfall recorded at KCI is a new record for daily maximum rainfall on this date! The 3.26" breaks the previous record of 1.25" set in 1993!

We STARTED the month of June on a very wet note... the first thirteen days saw 6.88" of rain! Then we had that dry period from June 13th through the 27th. Just a few days ago, on the 28th, we picked up .08". And then, of course, there is yesterday's rain... ending the month just as we started it... soggy! In fact, this is the third wettest June on record!!!

Now we should see a few days of DRY weather, before the rain returns. Unfortunately, it looks like it is coming ON the 4th of July holiday! And this morning's models continue to paint a pretty WET picture! Gary will have an update tonight at 5, 6 and 10pm!

Jamie

Posted by at 11:19 AM | Comments (2)