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On my way to Washington D.C.
Thursday, August 4th I am presenting my weather pattern theory to my peers and meteorologists across the nation and world. It is something I have been working on, living through, obsessing about for about a dozen years. I noticed a long time ago that weather patterns tend to repeat and a storm that occurs in February often looks similar to one that formed earlier in a particular season. I started collecting data, primarily 500 mb charts and watched very closely over the past 5 years how the weather pattern sets up each fall.
My theory: The weather pattern sets up every year between October 15th and November 5th. It is unique, meaning it has never happened before. The pattern then begins cycling. Every year the cycle is also unique. This past season we had a 73 to 77 day cycle. 2003-2004 had roughly a 54 day cycle and 2002-2003 had a 35-37 day cycle. A trough in the upper levels of the atmosphere occurring in December 2002, would be very similar to troughs that would occur 35 to 37 days later all the way until the pattern finally dies out in late July.
So, it is late July. Is the pattern dying now? Yes! We are seeing strong evidence that the pattern we have been in since last October is finally falling apart. So, now we will wait until a new unique pattern sets up in the fall.
Anyway, I have a 15 minute presentation ready to go to show the evidence of my weather pattern theory. We will call it the "Lezak theory".
More when I return. I hope it rains between now and when I get back.
Gary Lezak
Posted by at July 27, 2005 9:51 PM
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Good luck and safe travels!
Posted by: Anne Jackson at July 27, 2005 10:45 PM
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Gary, Have a great trip to DC, we will miss you! Just don't get any ideas of leaving us for good! We think you are a great weather man and we always depend on your forcasts. I think there is something to your theory and it sounds very interesting! Can't wait till you get back!
PS, Say hello to Windy and Stormy!
Sincerely, Kim Turner
Posted by: Kim Turner at July 28, 2005 7:52 AM
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Wow, good news, and alot of work for you.
Good luck and hope to hear more about your presentation. How is Windy doing?
Diane Kelly
Posted by: Diane Kelly at July 28, 2005 9:03 AM
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Good luck Gary! Would love to read more on your theory and see the notes from the presenatation. Will you make them availible on-line soon?
STEVE:
Gary will blog about his presentation when he gets back from DC. That will be the second week of August!
Jamie
Posted by: Steve in OP at July 28, 2005 9:23 AM
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What your getting ready to do in Washington DC sound interesting and I wish you sucess in your theory. Your weather reporting is always dependable! Keep the good work up.
Posted by: Charlene Smith at July 28, 2005 10:36 AM
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