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Katrina Numbers & Holiday Weekend Forecast

Hello there!
I am back from my "weekend" off! I am working for Gary tonight... he took the day off to catch-up... he has been really busy lately!

During the time I was off... I was pretty much addicted to tracking Katrina. And now I can't stop watching the coverage on all the networks. It is truely amazing--the power of Mother Nature!

The people of costal communities know they are always at risk for hurricane/tropical storm activity. But all the preparation in the world cannot get you ready for when your world is wiped away.

It is interesting... our News Director was actually on vacation IN New Orleans last Friday and Saturday. She was supposed to stay there until Sunday... but on Saturday afternoon, she overheard that they were going to CLOSE the airport. The situation quickly became serious. If they closed the airport... how would she get out of there? Many other tourists found themselves in the same spot. They looked into rental cars... there were NONE left. She was very lucky to get out on one of the last flights from New Orleans... but others were not so lucky. I saw video of tourists today, walking around... dragging their luggage... with no place to go. They said they couldn't even find a police officer to ask for help! I cannot even imagine what it must be like for them and all the other people stranded there.

With hurricanes (unlike tornadoes) we have DAYS of warning before the storm strikes. I am sure you saw the video of the traffic, as residents were feeling their homes. That was the right thing to do in this situation!! Some of the people decided to ride out the storm... not such a good idea, as we have seen. But then there were those that had no means to leave the city. The poor... those that can't afford a cab ride out of town, let alone a hotel room for the next several weeks. These people felt like they had no other choice but to stay. And today... they suspect that "thousands" are dead.

Anyway, I know you can read more about this online... but if you would like to make a contribution to help... the Red Cross is a great starting point. Click HERE FOR THE RED CROSS WEBSITE.

Also, NBC is putting on a live, televised concert to help raise money for victims of Hurricane Katrina. "A Concert for Hurricane Relief" will air Friday night at 7 p.m. on your NBC Action News station.

That said, the remnants of Katrina did not stop at the Gulf Coast. The storm continued up the Eastern part of the country... dumping rain on more than 20 STATES. Here is a list of some of the rainfall amounts:

...MAINE...
MILLINOCKET 1.41...THROUGH 2PM EDT
EAST MACHIAS 1.04

...ARKANSAS...
BLYTHEVILLE 2.56
JONESBORO 1.97

As for OUR forecast... well, our cold front that is pushing through didn't do much to create thunderstorms! We had a few spotty showers, maybe a rumble of thunder in some of our northern communities... but that is about it! Now we have a quiet weather pattern through the holiday weekend. Here is why:

Click to enlarge

I drew in a big "H" to point out the upper level ridge that will build in over the next several days. This will continue to provide us with plenty of sunshine... and warming temperatures.

Enjoy the weekend... Gary is back tomorrow!
Jamie

Posted by at 7:58 PM | Comments (3)

Katrina

Hurricane Katrina produced 100 to 130 mph winds along the Mississippi and Louisiana coastal areas. Now, the rain is spreading inland and you can see the forecast rainfall for the next two days below. We are actually being affected by the hurricane and is one of the reasons why we are cloud free today and tomorrow.

Click to enlarge (rainfall through Wednesday)

Posted by at 4:06 PM | Comments (1)

Thunderstorms & A Hurricane

This evening, thunderstorms have been ongoing in some of our Northern counties... which are under a SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH until 11pm. We have had winds in excess of 60 mph and quarter-sized hail reported with some of these cells. Here is a look from the Plaza, looking north. You can see the thunderstorm clouds in the distance:

Click to enlarge

Now take a look at the RADAR IMAGE from this evening:

Did you notice the outflow boundaries? I'll point them out below:

Rain cooled air from the thunderstorms NORTHWEST of KC created the boundary on the LEFT... and rain cooled air from the thunderstorms to the NORTHEAST of KC created the boundary on the RIGHT. Where they meet... well, we could see more thunderstorm development, as it is an area of convergence. The good news for those of you that DON'T want the rain... is that most of the thunderstorm activity is WEAKENING right now. Soooo we'll watch it this evening... still about a 30% chance!

Now... on to the story that EVERYone is talking about. Hurricane Katrina! It is now a Category 5 hurricane, with winds in excess of 160mph. Here is the latest satellite image... click on it to see the LOOP:

I am absolutely AMAZED by this storm. It is SO strong and SO big. Hurricane force winds (in excess of 74 mph) extend out 105 miles from Katrina's center!

No real change in the storm's projected path... still aiming at Southeast Louisiana... to the Mississippi coast. It is difficult to say *exactly* where the storm will make landfall... but all of these communities are under the gun. Storm surge is forecast to be anwhere from 18 to 22 FEET above normal levels. And some spots could see a 28 foot storm surge. This is going to be a devastating landfall, wherever that ends up being. By the way, landfall is expected early Monday morning. Brett Anthony will track the storm during NBC Action News Today, starting at 5am!

Jamie

Posted by at 6:47 PM | Comments (1)

What a Day!

What a georgeous day out there! Bright blue sky, with just a few clouds... ok, maybe a little on the hot/humid side... but a great pool day, nonetheless! Today's highs were in the upper 80s... we can expect similar conditions the next several days, too.

As for the ONE fly in the forecasting ointment, that is a disturbance that *could* bring a few thunderstorms to parts of the viewing area late Sunday. See this afternoon's NAM:

Click to enlarge

I am thinking *maybe* a 20% chance, if that. Otherwise, it looks like a nice dry stretch for us!

A different story along the Central Gulf Coast! Hurricane Katrina continues to churn in the Gulf of Mexico... and has been upgraded to a MAJOR hurricane... a Category 3! Here is the latest info:

WINDS: MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. KATRINA IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND
KATRINA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR
SUNDAY.

PRESURE: 945 MB...27.91 INCHES.

Click on the image below to see the Satellite Loop in motion:

Right now, it looks like Katrina will make landfall sometime on Monday... anywhere from Central Louisiana to the extreme Western Florida Panhandle. The middle point would be right near New Orleans... and a direct hit could be catastrophic for this area, as it is below sea level.

Here is an interesting ARTICLE ON THE POSSIBLE SCENARIO.

We'll keep tracking...
Jamie

Posted by at 4:37 PM

Rain rain has gone away!!

Finally! A dry forecast! If you were outside this afternoon, you might have noticed the clouds were very stable-looking. No vertical development... just fair weather cumulus! That is a sign that we will not see any rain tonight. You can see the cold front is still moving through our area... but it is weakening RIGHT now as winds are very calm along the front. There is just no forcing here:

And now a look at the satellite data. If the front generates anything this evening, it looks like it will be south of KC.

Click to enlarge

There is not much of a temperature drop behind the front, so we will see highs in the upper 80s for the next several days. But the biggest news is that we will be DRY!! Yeay!

Here are some of the rainfall totals from the past two days:
KCI: 1.41"
DOWNTOWN: 2.16"
OLATHE: 3.40"
EMPORIA: 5.74"
KNOB NOSTER: 3.52"
SEDALIA: 2.54"
ST. JOSEPH: .94"
CHILLICOTHE: .87"
TOPEKA: 1.26"
LAWRENCE: 1.66"

Now on to the tropics. It looks like Hurricane Katrina will make a second landfall along the Gulf Coast. Here are the latest stats:

WINDS: MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 100 MPH...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.

PRESSURE: 965 MB...28.50 INCHES.

Here is the satellite view of Katrina:

Click to enlarge

And the latest model data is taking Katrina farther south. With this path, the hurricane could make landfall again close to New Orleans, LA:

Click to enlarge

More on Katrina over the weekend!!
Jamie

Posted by at 5:38 PM | Comments (3)

Will It Rain Later Today?

Good morning,
Okay, so forecasting the rain this morning was a piece of cake.
At 3:00 a.m. there was a wall of water headed our way. Here are some rainfall totals that fell in less then an hour this morning.
K.C.I.------------------------.46"
Downtown-------------------.76"
Olathe New Century------.96"
Shawnee-------------------1.04"
Plaza-------------------------.80"
The rain blew through this morning with 30 to 40 mile an hour wind gusts and now we are left with the question, "will it rain this afternoon or evening"? There is still a weak cold front moving in the direction of K-C late today and I found these two graphics from the "Rapid Update Cycle" model that shows CAPE or Convective Available Potential Energy, in the order of 3000 to 5000 jewels/kilogram. That's a lot of fuel.
It appears the atmosphere could refuel for another round later today.

The first one is at 1 p.m. this afternoon.

This second one is six hours later, probably the best chance for more rain and maybe some gusty winds in the thunderstorms.

Once these thunderstorms move through our overworked atmosphere should be settling down for the weekend. More sunshine and a drier flow aloft that should produce an extended period of warm late August weather.

Have a great weekend,

Brett

Posted by at 7:56 AM

Tropical News...

Hello,
I just wanted to update you on the Tropics, as TROPICAL STORM KATRINA has been named! This was formerly a tropical depression that formed in the Atlantic Ocean... and it has now has gained strength! Maximum sustained winds are up to 40 mph, with higher gusts. Here is a look at the storm via infared satellite imagery:

Click to enlarge

You can see it's pretty close to Florida! And the sunshine state will feel the effects of Katrina tonight and on through the weekend. Here is the forecasted path, by the Tropical Storm Predicion Center:

Click to enlarge

You can see that additional strengthening is expected, and Katrina could become a hurricane before making landfall. Flooding will be particularly highlighted as this storm is a SLOW mover. Right now, it is moving to the northeast at only 8 MPH.

Jamie

Posted by at 12:41 PM

Bullseye?

Hey there,
Overnight, a quick rain shower raced through some neighborhoods on the city's near side on up to highway 36. Meantime, I am watching a fading thunderstorm complex south of the metro area. It looks like it won't hold together.
Behind this complex there is an area of sinking air and clearing skies. Will the sun appear in K-C today? If it does then the 80s are possible.
Otherwise, take a look at the graphic below and see how we could be in for some heavy rain tonight. This model, paints a bullseye right here for tomorrow morning's commute.

That means inches of rain are possible here or somewhere nearby. More data is coming with the BIG question, where will the bullseye be? Gary will have the latest tonight at 5,6 and 10 p.m.

Have a great day,

Brett

Posted by at 9:01 AM | Comments (1)

Active weather! & Weather Pattern

A back door cold front moved slowly through the Kansas City area today. A back door cold front is one that comes in from the northeast. Usually cold fronts come in from the north or northwest. This one came in from the northeast and thus is called a back door cold front.

Thunderstorms developed in the slightly converging air near this boundary. It should be south and west of the Kansas City area on Tuesday, so I am expecting it to be dry. But this is when things change. A very wet pattern could set up later this week.

Below is the new GFS forecast rainfall for the 60 hours ending Friday morning. I am not sure how it will set up Thursday and Friday, but I wouldn't be surprised.

Now, If you remember a blog from when I returned from Washington D.C. to present my weather pattern theory, I explained how the old pattern died out. And, a completely different weather pattern was in chaotic transition. Then, I explained how to show how this has happened let's watch and see how the thunderstorms the rest of this month will be completely different than the earlier part of the summer. And, suddenly it started raining in Illinois and over the drought plagued counties of Missouri. And, we started having regular rain. This is no surprise to me. It didn't have to become a wet pattern. I was anticipating something completely different and it just happens to be a very wet pattern right now.

Gary

Posted by at 6:26 PM | Comments (7)

Moldy and Muggy

Good morning,
Hi, The wait is on this morning for a cold front to push on through Kansas City. The slow moving boundary could focus some rain in the metro area this afternoon.
This morning's computer model data seems to push most of the rain south of K-C but it is still muggy and with the front in the area I think it could rain on most of us this afternoon. Hopefully not as much as over the weekend. Anyway, August has had 11 of 21 days over 90 degrees and nearly 7 inches of rain. You may have noticed mold showing up on the grass in your backyard. It looks like ashes and Sally Moore told me a lawn care expert told her to just cut the grass and it goes away.
So that it is for me. I was in Chicago over the weekend and saw "The Lion King", the musical. The traveling show is scheduled for Kansas City in 2007, at least I think that is a possible time frame depending on what venue it plays at or in. Anyway, its great! Spend the money on this show it is worth, just don't take the kids under 4. Its too long for them.

Posted by at 7:21 AM

Tough Forecast!

SORRY for the late post tonight! Wow, this is the latest I have ever been. I do have a (somewhat) good excuse... it is my birthday! Cynthia Newsome and Keith King treated me to Minsky's Pizza for dinner... yum! Thanks to them for a fun birthday at work! :)

Anyway... it is a very tough forecast. After days of advertising a cold front sweeping through and bringing us relief in the form of cooler and drier air... the models are now slowing that down BIG time. Right now, the front is stalled to our north:

Click to enlarge

That stalled front looks like it will wash out sometime tomorrow. This means it never comes through Kansas city. This also means it stays muggy here! The good news, the clouds we have seen over the past two days have helped keep temps in check... and should continue to do so. We'll see highs in the lower-mid 80s to start the week!

The bad news... we are still dealing with conditions that can support showers and thunderstorms! More rain? It could happen. The NAM is suddenly very wet for Monday night/Tuesday. Here is the latest precip forecast through Tuesday PM:

Click to enlarge

Pretty wet here. But notice we are JUST on the edge of this. One slight shift and we might not see anything at all. Brett will have more in the AM... and Gary will update you in the evening!

Have a great week!
Jamie

Posted by at 10:07 PM | Comments (2)

Uggy Muggies, Go Away!

Wow, have we had our fair share of rain over the past week! First there was last weekend... and more recently the past THREE nights! Officially at KCI, 6.79" has fallen this month! That is 4.68" above our average amount. Pretty wet! Here is what doppler radar is estimating on storm totals, over the past few days:

Click to enlarge

And it is still pretty muggy across the Metro... as the cooler/drier air won't arrive for another day or so. With all the moisture still around, patchy fog could become a problem overnight and into Sunday morning!

Otherwise, Sunday is shaping up into a nice day... with partly cloudy skies in the afternoon, and highs in the middle 80s. A spotty shower or thunderstorm is not out of the question as a secondary cold front slips through the region. If you live south of KC, you have a better chance of seeing rain! Once that front comes through... cooler and MUCH drier air will filter in. Monday and Tuesday look spectacular... with highs near 80 degrees! Sick day, sick day! ;)

We'll get a nice chance to dry out this week, too, with the next chance of showers coming in at week's end!

Hope you're having a lovely weekend!
Jamie

Posted by at 8:09 PM | Comments (1)

Friday night thunderstorms

As I am writing this thunderstorms are raging our way. Below is Live Triple Action Doppler showing the torrents of rain in red. At least 3 inches of rain could fall in a few spots overnight causing flooding. The cold front is approaching, but like last weekend there are many other things going on. We have a tropical connection to the monsoon flow which usually is over the southwestern U.S., but it is being diverted over the plains. This is somewhat similar to what happened last weekend. The cold front will move slowly through and weaken Saturday. Rain could linger into Saturday morning. Then we must watch for a secondary surge of cooler air Sunday. As this approaches a few thunderstorms may occur, but nothing compared to what has been happening.

We are now up to 6 inches of rain this month at KCI. Wow! What a turn around after a dry July. June was wet as well, so add up the three months and this has actually been a wet summer. Amazing!

Gary

Posted by at 8:31 PM | Comments (1)

Early Wake Up Call

We had another round of thunderstorms overnight and this moring! HEAVY rain fell in some areas... particularly up in Doniphan county, Kansas. Check it out:

Click to enlarge

Doppler radar estimates 7 to 8 inches fell there in the past 12 hours or so! There is a FLOOD WARNING until 10:15am... stay away from water on roads, or rising creek/stream waters!

Elsewhere, this morning's showers and thunderstorms continue to move EAST and away from the Metro... but additional showers and thunderstorms have developed to our WEST... near Topeka:

Click to enlarge

These are drifting in our direction... and while not as INTENSE as the last batch... we may see a passing shower during the afternoon hours.

We are really dealing with muggy air... "air you can wear"! That makes for hair you CAN'T wear... ugh! :) Dewpoints will be high again this afternoon... combine that with a little sunshine... and it will be a sauna out there!

Once our cold front comes through, we will start to feel the relief! Here is the current surface map:

Click to enlarge

Ahead of the front, we are in the warm, muggy airmass. But back behind it... it is much cooler, and less humid. The front will also spark MORE thunderstorms this evening and overnight into Saturday morning. We could see more heavy rainfall!

TGIF... enjoy your weekend!
Jamie

Posted by at 8:39 AM | Comments (1)

Changing pattern

The weather pattern continues to go through a transition. Cold fronts are beginning to get stronger, but the pattern is evolving before our eyes. One thing for sure......it has changed. The areas that have been dry are getting much wetter. Sedalia had nearly 2 inches of rain this morning after over an inch last weekend. Illinois is getting rain over the drought areas. But, I believe this means nothing when it comes to the fall and winter pattern that will set up in a couple of months.

Below is the forecast precipitation from the NAM for the next two days.

I only got 3 hours of sleep last night as the thunderstorms kept redeveloping. It is very difficult for me to sleep during a thunderstorm because I just don't want to miss it. Thunderstorms may fire up again tonight in a similar way to last night, then when the cold front comes through Friday night thunderstorms are likely. It could be a strong line of thunderstorms.

Posted by at 4:42 PM | Comments (5)

Rainy Morning

Lots of rain this morning in PARTS of the metro! Check out the doppler radar rainfall estimates below:

Click to enlarge

Wow... that's more than two inches in Pettis County, Missouri... just north of Sedalia! There is a FLASH FLOOD WARNING until noon for Pettis County. DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH WATER-COVERED ROADS!

This afternoon will bring drier weather, although an isolated thunderstorm sparked by daytime heating is not out of the question. But most areas will stay dry.

We are still watching a cold front that will approach us on Friday night. Ahead of the front, we could climb as high as 100 degrees Friday afternoon. KCI has NOT hit 100 yet this year, although it has hit 99 twice. We'll make one more run for 100... then the front will bring us the chance of thunderstorms Friday night/Saturday morning.... and cooler temperatures for the weekend.

I just got caught blogging on-air! :) Kind of funny... I was late for my weather hit!

Have a great day!
Jamie

Posted by at 6:40 AM | Comments (1)

Active Period

Hello, there!
This is my frist day back from vacation... it is nice to be home! We went to Chicago to visit some family and do wedding stuff. It was a good time, and the weather was pretty nice there. I see I missed some MAJOR rain here! And the rain might not be over just yet...

Here is a look at the morning radar:

Click to enlarge

You can see showers and thunderstorms across Nebraska and Kansas. If they hold together and continue to head our way... we could see thunderstorms later today. Here is a look at this morning's NAM model:

Click to enlarge

We also have a chance of rain going into Thursday morning. AND again Friday night/Saturday morning. It is going to be an active few days before we quiet down for awhile.

I recommend umbrellas... just in case!
Have a great day!
Jamie

Posted by at 7:29 AM

Great Tuesday Weather

Wow, what a great day! Stormy is here at work with me today as I couldn't resist her sad eyes as I was about to leave. If you are wondering what the dogs do while I am at work, well, they just sit there and you hardly know that they are even around. The other night I left and started driving away when I realized Stormy was back at work. I forgot she was there. Windy is at home resting and I am taking care of another dog, Slick. Slick is a friend of Windy and Stormy's.

The weather pattern is in transition right now. Remember my theory. The fall and winter pattern does NOT set up until late October and early November. Any forecast that comes out before this time is absolutely unreliable, in my opinion. So, our fall and winter forecast will be ready by around November 10th. Before this time, however, it is more random, and with the pattern changing right before our eyes anything could happen in the next few weeks. Right now there are more cold fronts lined up.

Later tonight and early Wednesday, and then again early Thursday there could be some thunderstorms as the warm air begins its arrival back into our region.

Gary

Posted by at 4:17 PM

A cool August 15th

76 degrees today makes this our 3rd day in a row below 80 degrees. I nice break from the three days in a row of 98 degrees last week. It is August 15th, so the odds are very high that we will warm up significantly one more time, but there is no sign of any heat waves. Fall is just a few weeks away.

The weather pattern is in major transition and very chaotic right now. So, confidence is low at this moment on what may happen later this week.

Windy and Stormy are loving the cooler weather. Have you gotten your plush Windy and Stormy yet? They are available at area HYVEE's for only $5 each. The one lying down is Windy. The proceeds go to the Humane Society of Greater KC and Waiside Waifs in Missouri.

Posted by at 5:55 PM | Comments (1)

Summer Takes a Break

Good morning,
Wow, I had a great weekend. Crown Center, Saturday to M-C a talent and fashion show that benefited the Sickle Cell Association of Kansas City. Weatherwise, I drove through some wicked downpours. We did get three to four inches of rain and in some places six. So it looks like all the computer data on Friday verified.
This morning it is still raining, even in parts of the metro. Lee's Summit has picked up light rain adding up to a couple hundredths of an inch. Here's Live Triple Action Doppler.

This week, the early morning data is already shifting. Rain chances in the middle part of the week look as if they could hold off until Friday but still get out of here for the weekend. Until then temperatures will be slightly below average until we get to Thursday and Friday and then temperatures close to 90 could return again.

The darkest red on the graphic above is warmer air lining up ahead of the cold front. That's pretty common for a summertime set up. It is still summer.

Anyway, have a great day and if you are ever in Clinton, MO. try El Camino Real. Awesome Burrito Rio Grande!

Brett

Posted by at 8:25 AM | Comments (1)

Great Summer weather

The weather pattern will continue to be quite exciting the next two weeks as we go through August. At this time of year, the cold fronts are not strong enough to wipe out the low level moisture. In September and October the fronts will be stronger and the moisture would then be pushed down into the Gulf coast area. It would then need to be pulled back into the next storm, which certainly does happen. But, in August the moisture sits either just south of us, or it never really leaves. The next storm approaching at the end of the week will have copious amounts of moisture to work with and we should see some heavy rain in the area again. It is completely different than this past weekend's set up so we will see.

Below is the 500 mb forecast for Friday. This shows a rather strong summertime storm moving across the northern plains. A cold front will move through Friday and the chance of thunderstorms will come along with it. After this front goes by there could be a very wet set up for the end of the month. It is rather exciting.

I am working tonight, Sunday. Jamie has a few days off. Brett did the 5 PM and I am doing the 10 PM. Jeff Penner did a great job Saturday night tracking all of the rain.

Posted by at 7:42 PM | Comments (1)

When it Rains it Pours!

Wow, well we do not need rain anymore! The last 2 days we have seen round after round of rain and T-Storms. Here are some totals for Friday & Saturday. Keep in mind we average 3.54" for the entire month of August.

KCI.......................4.64"
Gladstone.................4.52"
Lee's Summit..............4.26"
Plaza (NBC Action News)...4.20"
Shawnee...................4.09"
Prairie Village...........4.07"
Leawood...................3.64"
Olathe....................2.37"

What's next? It looks like more rain. More rounds of rain and T-Storms are possible tonight through Tuesday. Why all the rain? There are a 2-3 main reasons. 1. A front has been stalled near I-70. This will be the case the next 2-3 days, although it may drift south a bit, it will not get far enough away to end all the rain chances. 2. We have been connected to a tropical plume from old Mexico, this has added extra moisture. 3. There are upper air disturbances embedded in the tropical plume. All this does is enhance rainfall.

See the set-up on the map below. You will see the stalled front (red-blue-red) and the clouds extending from old Mexico to Ohio.

Posted by at 7:35 PM | Comments (1)

Huge change

The weather is quite interesting right now, and it should bring fulfillment to weather enthusiasts all around our region during the next two weeks. I am expecting many chances of rain and the potential for much cooler weather to linger or get reinforced from time to time.

Since it is August we can expect this front to weaken and this could be an aid in the development of rain after the front goes by. We may have a tropical connection to the monsoon moisture in Mexico, but this is very uncertain at this time. If it becomes connected there could be flooding rainfall amounts. Below is the forecast rainfall by the 18z NAM model. This is the 1 PM run of the NAM model, the latest data and it has 2 to 3 inches of rain here by Sunday. More later on.

Posted by at 4:45 PM | Comments (3)

Heat Wave Nears An End.

Good morning,
I saw something really weird yesterday. This bird was pulling a worm out of the ground with pot-holders. Wow, its been H-O-T!
Well enough already, and it looks like a change is near. A couple of cold fronts head toward K-C starting tomorrow. Someone, and judging by the computer model below, it looks like northern Missouri will get a lot of rain. 3, maybe 4 inches.

Boy, just a southward shift of that rain and our dry pattern snaps quickly. Lots of e-mails recently about weekend trips and forecasts for places like Branson, the Lake and the state fair in Sedalia. Well it looks like each of those places will have to deal with rain at some point during the weekend. The timing is as they say "up in the air"

Have a great day,

Brett

Posted by at 7:02 AM | Comments (2)

Ch-Ch-Changes

It's been another hot and humid day, with developing cumulus clouds in the afternoon. Here is a look at downtown Kansas City:

The one thing we're missing today, is those isolated thunderstorms we've seen the past few days. Today, we seem to be under the influence of a small ridge... with thunderstorms firing up to our north AND to our east. Here is a look at the radar this late afternoon:

Click to enlarge

And the NAM has picked up on that ridge... check out the afternoon 700mb level, with higher relative humidities to our north AND to our east! Pretty cool!

Click to enlarge

It still looks like we're in for some BIG changes as we head into the weekend! A cold front will approach us on Friday... bringing a pretty good shot of rain. We could see some good accumulations, too... here is a peek at what the NAM is forecasting through SATURDAY morning:

Click to enlarge

The GFS also looks pretty wet through the same time period:

Click to enlarge

We will continue to track the front into the weekend! Have a good one!
Jamie :)

Posted by at 4:45 PM

A stormy forecast?

A weak cold front, or really just a wind shift line may slide into the Kansas City area Wednesday. There will likely be a few thunderstorms near this wind shift line, but the flow aloft is still very weak. This means the thunderstorms will move very slowly and result in a few spots getting some nice rainfall, but most of us will likely be dry. The chance of rain then goes way up as a stronger front approaches and moves slowly through between Friday and Monday. This should bring more widespread rain and the flow aloft is strengthening, possibly leading to some severe weather, but more likely an organized thunderstorm complex may form. And, not just one, perhaps three or four MCS's. Below is the forecast rainfall for Friday night through Monday morning. A LOT! I hope it verifies. We should have a clearer picture on how cloudy and wet it will get by this time Wednesday.

Gary

Posted by at 5:50 PM | Comments (1)

Washington D.C. and Rainfall forecast

Washington D.C. was quite an experience, with all of the historic sites. But overall the city isn't nearly as nice as Kansas City. The people are friendlier here.

Thursday morning, is when I made the unveiling of my weather pattern theory. This is something that I have been working on for about 15 years and especially in the last three when we have discovered other aspects of my theory. So, doing the presentation in front of my peers and meteorologists from around the world it was quite an experience. It went over well and there were quite a few questions. Afterwards someone came up and asked me to set up a website to track the weather pattern as the new unique one sets up this fall. I will likely set that up.

So, I am back and the weather pattern is VERY interesting. We are now in a new weather pattern as last winter's weather pattern has just fallen apart in the past few days. So, with a new pattern, a completely different one for the first time in 9 months we can expect something different to happen. This is exactly what is forecasted by the computer models in the next few days. Look below at the rainfall forecast for this weekend. It could get very wet. More on this later this week.

Gary

Posted by at 5:55 PM | Comments (5)

A Hot Week Ahead

Sorry for the late entry...

This week, the temperatures are climbing again! We were in the lower and middle 90s today, with an official high of 95 at KCI. Expect more of the same tomorrow and Wednesday... and by Thursday and Friday we could be close to 100 degrees!! Here you can see the upper ridge that will be responsible for the rise in temperatures:

Click to enlarge

Notice it building into the Southwestern US. It will continue to build OUR way, too!

Much like today, as the ridge builds in... we have the chance of ISOLATED thunderstorms over the next few days. That means, most people will NOT see rain... but if you do... don't be surprised! Today we had THREE thunderstorm cells pop up south of the Metro... in Eastern Johnson County, KS and even into Jackson County, MO. These seemed to have popped up due to daytime heating.

Sooooo while the next seven days will be HOT... there are signs that eventually a cold front will sweep through bringing more widespread rain and cooler temperatures. But right now the timing isn't until August 14th-18th. The models are having a hard time with the timing. We will keep updating you as we go down the road!

Hope you had a great weekend!! Thanks to all of you that came out to Identi-Child on Saturday!
Jamie

UPDATE:
I forgot to mention... Tropical Storm Harvey continues to churn in the Atlantic Ocean... not threatening land.

Tropical Storm Irene has also formed in the Atlantic. Here are the stats from the Tropical Storm Prediction Center:

IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES
...110 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

Posted by at 9:03 PM | Comments (2)

Another Heat Wave?

Well, we've had a 36 hour break from the heat & humidity. Our break is about to end. Highs will be back into the 90s Sunday. Temperatures will continue to warm all workweek, so that by Thursday or Friday we may reach 100 degrees. There are signs that August 12-20 could see cooler weather with better rain chances as the pattern tries to change. That is a long way off and confidence is low at this moment. This is something we will be following the next several days. In the meantime, try to stay cool.

Posted by at 8:03 PM

TGIF!

What a nice day! (in terms of more comfortable temperatuares, anyway). We did start off with a few left-over showers... and the clouds were slow to clear... but it sure felt nice out there!

And WOW... what a sunset!! Here is a look from the Plaza... looking North to Downtown.

You don't get the full effect, looking north... but I am planning on showing a timelapse looking WEST during the 10pm weathercast!

Tomorrow morning, temperatures will feel refreshing... here is a look at Saturday morning temperatures at the 850 mb level (5,000ft up).

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You can see temperatures are around 13 to 15 degrees Celcius. That would translate to the upper 50s/low 60s here! But look just to the WEST at all that WARM air. That is headed our way, too... and slowly but surely over the next several days, we'll see a warming trend.

Right now, rain chances aren't looking too good. We might see a spotty shower over the weekend... late Sunday maybe... as the warmer air begins to really move in. We will keep you posted!

Jeff is in Saturday... I finally get a day off! :) I will actually be out at the Oak Park Mall from 2:30 to 4:30pm in front of JC Penny for the Identi-Child registration. Come out and sign up the kids, Reporter George Kiriyama will be there, too! I am back for Sunday's newscasts... and Gary returns on Monday.

Have a great weekend...
Jamie

Posted by at 7:16 PM

THUNDERSTORMS, VIEWER QUESTION, AND GARY UPDATE!

Finally! We were beginning to think it wasn't going to rain at all today (and some of you are still waiting)... but late this afternoon, we did see the first signs that thunderstorms would indeed form. And they did!

The rain has mainly been south of the Metro... with some thunderstorms that formed north of I-70... but EAST of Kansas City. So those of you in the Northern and Western parts of the viewing area for the most part missed out! Here is the latest radar image, so you can get an idea of what I'm talking about:

Click to enlarge

And to see the LATEST view of radar, just go to LIVE TRIPLE ACTION DOPPLER.

We've had a few severe thunderstorm warnings out of these, as well... right now they stand at Cass County, Missouri and Anderson County, Kansas.

In Cass county, we have had reports of wind damage. Powerlines down, tree limbs down in Garden City. Winds with these storms could be in excess of 60 mph! Also, in Anderson County... 4 inch tree limbs have come down because of strong winds.

Another huge deal is the rainfall AMOUNTS with these particular storms. They are moving VERY SLOWLY... or in some cases not at ALL! Here is a look at doppler estimated rainfall rates for ONE HOUR of time:

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WOW! That is OVER 2" an hour in those local areas where you see the red/pink. Amazing! Therefore, Flash Flooding is possible!

Thunderstorms should weaken as the sun sets... we'll keep you posted of any more warnings. Still about a 30 to 40% chance those of you up north will see a spotty shower or thunderstorm before the night is through... fingers crossed!

********************

Now on to a viewer question that I thought was a good one! This is one of the most common questions people call in with:

"Question...On this date I was in south johnson county heading east,looking south, when my children said Look mommy a rainbow. It wasnt rainy, but it was hazy. It was a straight line rainbow, then when I looked through my sunroof I saw a perfect circle rainbow around the sun!! Other people saw it too, so I know Im not crazy. What was it? It was about 1pm. Is there an explanation? Would love to know. Thanks, Kelly B. "

Kelly, to answer your question.... it sounds like you might have seen some refracting light from cirrus clouds... those that are high up in the atmosphere. These clouds are made up of ice crystals because they are so cold. The crystals can bend light... sometimes forming a "halo" around the sun.

There is an old rhyme "ring around the sun or moon... you'll step in a puddle soon". This is because cirrus clouds will blow off thunderstorm tops and drift downstream... usually the first sign thunderstorms are heading into an area.
***********************

GARY UPDATE:
Gary called today to say the presentation went well! He said there were a lot of people there in the crowd, and he heard good comments from them. His theory sparked a lot of conversation... he will fill us in more when he gets back from D.C. on Monday! I hear he has pictures, too! :) Good job, Gary!

Have a great night,
Jamie

Posted by at 5:25 PM

Tracking the Change

Good morning,
Overnight a few showers popped up. Nothing more than trace amounts, but it proves the atmosphere is primed to pump out some much needed rain. Although amounts still look light.

Except for some isolated areas that could see a thunderstorm produce a heavier amount.
Thunderstorms could occur closer to the front which moves through this afternoon.
Will it rain over the weekend? The GFS has moisture around. Maybe as warmer air returns some showers will spin up and move by Sunday morning.
We'll get more data this morning.

Have a great day,

Brett

Posted by at 7:31 AM | Comments (1)

Cold Front & Gary Update

Good evening! Temperatures this afternoon topped out in the upper 90s, to near 100 degrees once again! Here is a list of some local high temperatures:

KCI: 99
Downtown: 98
Lee's Summit: 99
Olathe: 97
St. Joseph: 96
Kirksville: 95
Sedalia: 100
Chillicothe: 99
Pleasant Hill: 100

Tomorrow will also be a hot day... although not AS hot. But ahead of the cold front, we should reach highs near 90 degrees.

The reason... the front has slowed down a bit. We are not expecting the precipitation to begin until the afternoon hours. Here is a look at the forecast for tomorrow...

First, the NAM's morning surface map:

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Now a look at the afternoon:

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Amounts are STILL looking rather weak... from .10" to .25". And we're still thinking the activity will be scattered in nature. BUT since we will warm up so much ahead of the activity... we could see a few stronger thunderstorms. Here is a look at afternoon instability:

Click to enlarge

You can see, there is a bulls-eye over the Kansas City area! We will keep an eye on things through the afternoon, and of course, let you know if any storms become severe. Once it starts raining, temperatures will start to fall, too.

We are also expecting a cooler Friday behind the frontal boundary. Look at the cooler temps on the other side... while we are in the 80s and 90s this evening... parts of Montana, North and South Dakota are in the 60s and 70s:

Click to enlarge

In other news... as NOAA has increased the severity of tropical weather... Tropical Storm Harvey is heading toward Bermuda. Here are the latest stats:

MOTION: ENE AT 10 MPH
WIND SPEED: SUSTAINED AT 60 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS
PRESSURE: 998 MB...29.47 INCHES

Harvey will be very close to Bermuda Thursday morning, and could strengthen to a hurricane (winds over 74 mph) between now and then. The good news for the United States mainland... it is moving AWAY from us and farther into the Atlantic Ocean. Here is the forecasted path:

Click to enlarge

At this time, there are no other hurricanes, tropical storms or even depressions in the Atlantic. But a few waves bear watching.

GARY UPDATE:
Gary called today to say he is having a great time at the AMS Conference. He gives his presentation TOMORROW (Thursday) right before lunch, and is very excited! I can't wait to hear how it goes... good luck, Gary! (I know you're reading the blog... and We know you'll be wonderful!) ;)

Have a great night!
Jamie

Posted by at 8:00 PM

A Scorcher!

Good morning,
Here we go again. A cloudy morning, a few sprinkles east of the city. Looks like a repeat of yesterday. That's why again we are going upper 90s. And maybe in some parts of the viewing area 100. Probably up north, closer to the cold front due to compression heating.
Sometimes as a front approaches the air ahead of it is squeezed and sinks. As the air sinks, it compresses and warms so there may be places that hit 100 today. We shall see, even if the actual air temperatures don't hit 100 it will pretty darn close.
Below is a map that shows how closer to the front some of the hottest air is found. Temps around 95 to 100.

Have a great day, Cooler weather is on the way briefly at the start of the weekend.

Brett

Posted by at 8:03 AM | Comments (2)

Well it looks like the showers DID materialize... although it wasn't much rain this morning! Just about a trace to a few hundreths of an inch. Like Brett said, a TEASE from Mother Nature!

You might have also noticed it felt a bit more HUMID out there today! The past few days, our dew points have been in the upper 50s/lower 60s... but today, they shot up into the upper 60s! That definitely made it muggy out there. We could see dew points into the lower 70s Wednesday or Thursday.

It is still looking like a chance of showers on Thursday, with the passage of the cold front. Rainfall amounts could be light... at a tenth to a quarter of an inch. Here is the NAM's LATEST precip forecast:

Click to enlarge

It also looks like the precipitation will be more SPOTTY in nature. So SCATTERED showers on Thursday is the way we're leaning right now!

To add to Brett's hurricane comments... here is the updated HURRICANE FORECAST that NOAA released this afternoon:

"NOAA is calling for a 95% to 100% chance of an above-normal 2005 Atlantic hurricane season, according to a consensus of scientists at National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center (CPC), Hurricane Research Division (HRD), and National Hurricane Center (NHC). This forecast reflects NOAA’s highest confidence of an above-normal hurricane season since their outlooks began in August 1998.

The predicted nearly 100% chance of an above-normal season is higher than the 70% likelihood indicated in NOAA’s pre-season outlook issued May 16th. This increased certainty reflects the fact that the atmospheric and oceanic conditions favoring hurricane formation that were predicted in May are now in place. These conditions, combined with the high levels of activity already seen, make an above-normal season nearly certain."

To read more on this topic, check out NOAA'S WEBSITE.

Have a good muggy night!
Jamie

Posted by at 6:00 PM

Rain Teasing Us

Splash and Dash showers moved through the metro this morning. It rained hard enough to wet the ground in some places but minutes later the streets were dry again. The morning showers were associated with the leading edge of some even hotter air now buidling into Kansas City that could, given enough sunshine and SW winds tomorrow, bring us our first 100 degree day of the year.
Thursday, a weak cold front moves into the metro. It will bring us a chance of rain, right now only about 30-percent. Here is a total precipitation amount map through 66 hours or Thursday afternoon and you can see there isn't much, so keep the sprinklers going or if you are like me, watch the grass turn an even deeper shade of brown.

Otherwise the weekend looks great. Here's something to talk about. A group of researchers at M-I-T (Massachusetts Institute of Technology) have discovered that Hurricanes are getting more intense. The scientists findings compared data from the 1970s with the current hurricane season. The latest research suggests the increased intensity comes from global warming. For many years ocean surface and atmospheric temperatures have continued to rise, a trend that is expected to continue for the next 20 years.

Have a great day, as I write this it does look like we are going to make it to around 98 degrees or hotter today.

Peace,
Brett

Posted by at 10:19 AM

Here is a great viewer question we received:

When Gary was on with the weather news at 5pm tonight, he showed the month of July with the temps that we've had for each day. Just wondering if it would be possible to put that somewhere on your weather website or in the blog? It's always interesting to look back and see how hot or cold we were!
Thanks,
Shirley Jones

Shirley, I love the idea of posting a calendar to look back on! I will try to make it a point to post one in the blog the first week of a new month. I found this one on wunderground.com... it seems to be pretty good. It includes the daily high/low and precip... and even has the averages:

JULY IN REVIEW

Now on to forecast thoughts... We are still under the influence of our upper high. This should give us two more days of hot weather, with highs climbing into the mid-to-upper 90s both Tuesday and Wednesday.

Shorter term... the models are developing an area of rain tonight just to the West of KC. Here is the GFS:

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.... And the NAM:

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The models seem to be picking up on some lift in the atmosphere... here is the NAM's lift:

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The area in yellow/green is the area of lift. There really isn't a WHOLE lot of moisture to work with here, so the chances are slim that we'll see any rain... but it's worth keeping an eye on!

These same two models are differing on rainfall AMOUNTS with Thursday's cold front. The NAM is going with a good .25"... while the GFS barely gives us .01"!! Hopefully we'll be able to squeeze out a little more than THAT! We'll see as we get closer...

I wanted to post the diagram below... GREAT picture of all the components of a mature thunderstorm.

Click to enlarge

It's been awhile since we've seen any of those around here! :) That's all for now... I will post more later, if anything changes!
Have a super night,
Jamie

Posted by at 4:37 PM | Comments (1)