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Saturday rain?

Above, you can see the rainfall forecast from the 18z NAM model. 18z means 18 zulu time which is 18-5 or 1300 hours, 1 PM. When the time changes in at the end of October the data comes in one hour earlier because 18z then is 18-6 or 1200 hours or noon. So, we are very excited about the time change in a few weeks.

An upper level storm is moving our way. This evening, thunderstorms have developed over Oklahoma and they are quite widespread. The storm causing this is weakening, but it should be strong enough to bring some heavy rain our way later Saturday and Saturday night.

There are big changes to talk about next week, but what does it all mean. I just can't tell you yet.

Gary

Posted by at 8:19 PM | Comments (1)

A four corners storm system

The weekend could be majorly affected by a storm that may become more negatively tilted (yesterdays' blog) as it moves into Kansas Saturday. Moisture may be drawn in from the Gulf of Mexico and this could lead to thunderstorms. Below is the forecast rainfall for this weekend. After this goes by a more substantial storm dives into the western United States. This will allow us to warm up.

Click to enlarge (shows rainfall forecast this weekend)

Remember my weather pattern theory. The pattern sets up between October 15th and November 5th and then begins cycling. So, we are now just 16 days away from then beginning stages of the new pattern. It, will hopefully be very exciting this season. The big problem with my theory is that if it sets up into a bad pattern then we know it could be a long boring season. We are so due for an exciting stormy pattern, but this doesn't help any at all. It is so random and we will patiently wait.

We have received a lot of comments. I will address those by 9 PM tonight. I PROMISE!

Gary

Posted by at 5:54 PM | Comments (4)

Tricky forecast is changing

Click to enlarge

Above you can see the NAM 48 hour forecast 500 mb flow. This shows a weak, positively tilted upper low moving into Texas and Oklahoma. You can tell that it is positively tilted by looking at the tilt from northest to southwest. If it were oriented northwest to southeast then this would be called a negatively tilted trough. A negatively tilted trough produces a lot of rising motion leading to rain and thunderstorms, or snow if it were cold enough. This storm, however is positively tilted which leads to not much lift. But, we must watch this closely because the tilt can change very fast. A great weekend forecast could suddenly become cloudy and rainy. I don't see any evidence of this right now.

If it stays positively tilted the weekend will be awesome. Have a great day!

Gary

Posted by at 8:41 PM | Comments (4)

Rita Sunset Picture

Above, you can see the beautiful sunset taken last Saturday evening by Rick Kimball (one of our weather spotters). The spectacular colors are caused by the sun illuminating the clouds as the sun set below the horizon. What caused these clouds? Hurricane Rita! Rita weakened Saturday morning and as she moved inland clouds spread across our sky during the day. I was anticipating a great "Rita Sunset" and it happened.

Our weather pattern is in major transition and our first strong cold front of the season will likely pass through Wednesday morning. There is a storm over the western part of the nation at about 18,000 feet up. A piece of this storm is breaking off and heading our way. These two features should combine to develop showers and thunderstorms Wednesday by mid to late morning.

I have a question for you. What do you like about our weathercasts and what do you think we could do better? And, what do you want to see in our Action Weather Blog?

Gary Lezak

Posted by at 5:51 PM | Comments (14)

First Real Fall Cold Front

So far the fronts we have had have not been that strong. They can still be considered summer-like cold fronts. The front that is due in Wednesday is the strongest of the new fall season. The day may start warm & humid, followed by a period of rain & T-Storms midday & then the afternoon may be cloudy, breezy & chilly with temperatures in the 50s. It will feel like fall Wednesday afternoon. Lows Thursday morning may fall to a crisp 43 degrees.

Here is a great weather photo. This is the sunset taken last Friday at the Blue Valley NW/Blue Valley W football game.

Thanks to Cate Crandell of Overland Park for sending it in!

Posted by at 5:30 PM | Comments (1)

A Tale of Two Cold Fronts...

Good evening!

I hope you enjoyed the day today... it could be one of our last really SUMMER-LIKE days for awhile! (highs in the upper 80s and humid conditions). A taste of fall moves in this week, and our temperatures will be closer to average.

We talked about two cold fronts yesterday, the first is northwest of us this evening:

Click to enlarge

It hasn't moved much today, because of Rita to our east. But overnight, this front will come through as a cold front, and it keeps us with a 30% chance of a few spotty thunderstorms. Not overly impressive, but a chance, nonetheless!

The front also means cooler temperatures for Monday... still thinking lower to mid 70s. And Tuesday STILL looks AWESOME with highs in the upper 70s and abundant sunshine!

Then the NEXT front moves in for Wednesday. Here is another look at the even COLDER air still forecast to spill in:

Click to enlarge

Check yesterday's blog entry... compare the images... the GFS is being consistant. Thursday and Friday mornings look to be in the 40s... chilly!

On to Rita stuff... some of the highest rainfall amounts, by state, through 7am:

LOUISIANA:
LAPLACE 12.4"
BUNKIE 10.0"

MISSISSIPPI:
GREENVILLE 6.6"
GREENWOOD 2.6"

There could still be accumulations of 2 to 3 inches of rain in the path of Rita's remnants!

Have a great evening! Gary is off Monday (he gets to watch MNF!), so I will be joining you once again for the evening weather!
Jamie

Posted by at 5:39 PM

Good evening! Tonight was such a nice evening! I hope you got to get out and enjoy it. We had a NBC Action News field trip... we got a bunch of people to go down to the Plaza for the Art Fair! Hello to everyone we met... what a fun time! :)

As for the forecast... tomorrow we're going to be sandwiched by two weather features. The first is the remnants of Rita. We have seen the clouds from Rita today... and will continue to see her clouds on Sunday. Some of our eastern counties may see a few showers or a thunderstorm... but for the immediate Metro, it looks like Rita won't bring us rain.

The other feature is an approaching cold front. It won't reach us until the evening hours, so it looks like another WARM and HUMID day. This particular feature COULD bring us rain... about a 30% chance right now. There is subsidance on the northwestern side of Rita... so this might inhibit thunderstorm development a bit! Here is the NAM's forecast map of tomorrow's scenario:

Click to enlarge

On the backside of the cold front... cooler, drier air will be working in for the start of the work week. Monday, we'll see highs in the lower 70s... and Tuesday looks awesome with lots of sunshine and highs in the upper 70s.

Then ANOTHER cold front works it's way towards us late Wednesday. This one is stronger, and will drop temperatures significantly for the second half of the week. We'll have lows in the 40s both Thursday and Friday! Take a look at the cooler air forecasted to rush in:

Click to enlarge

Have a super Sunday!
Jamie

Posted by at 8:07 PM

It feels like fall & rainfall totals

Above is a picture from our American Century Investments skyview taken around 2:15 PM Friday. Rainfall amounts have been in the 1 to 3 inch range and close to 5 inches around Topeka. Here are some totals:

Lawrence: 2.60"
Leavenworth: 2.31"
Overland Park: 2.14"
Lee's Summit: 1.94"
Plaza: 1.72"
Liberty: 1.18"

Hurricane Rita weakened this afternoon, but there is still a chance she could strengthen again before making landfall Saturday morning. The NAM model takes Rita into eastern Texas. It actually is getting closer to us, but we may get our next chance of rain from the cold front arriving Sunday instead. Below is the NAM forecast for Sunday evening. Notice the cold front near KC and what is left of Rita across eastern Texas.


Click above to enlarge

Have a great weekend!

Gary

Posted by at 2:28 PM

First Full Day of Fall

Hello there!
Right on cue... a fall-like day for us for the first full day of fall! Showers and thunderstorms are on-going this morning... and look like they'll stick around for awhile. Here is a look at the Radar image as of 8am (Click on it to see LIVE Triple Action Doppler's LATEST image):

Some parts of the viewing area saw some pretty heavy rainfall today, as thunderstorms were "training". Think of training as an actual train. Where thunderstorms line up and follow each other over the same location. That adds up to flood problems... see doppler esitmated rainfall totals below:

Click to enlarge

Notice on the Kansas side... that is over 4 inches of rainfall! WOW! For that reason, we have seen FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS for those areas.

As for the rest of the day... well, this rain doesn't end here. The heaviest stuff will taper off... but light rain/drizzle and clouds could stick around. As you can see from the regional image below... more rain extends south and west from us:

Click to enlarge

That means we will likely stay in the upper 60s for highs today... really fall-like!

Of course, we are still tracking Rita in the Gulf of Mexico. Now a CATEGORY 4 storm with winds at 140mph. Rita is dominating the news today... and some of the storys are already pretty amazing. We blogged a few days ago about the NUMBER of people in the Houston area that would have to evacuate... and by now I am sure you've seen the video of gridlock on the roads.

Here is the latest track, which takes the eye just east of Houston... but that entire white area is under the gun:

Click to enlarge

We will have the latest tonight at 5, 6 and 10!

Have a good Friday!
Jamie

Posted by at 7:49 AM

Happy last FULL day of summer! Fall officially begins tomorrow... Sept. 22... at 5:23pm!

And just as we go into fall... a cold front will be moving through the region... bringing us cooler temperatures.

It still looks like we'll hit the lower-to-mid 80s ahead of the front for a warm day Thursday... but we're still thinking Friday looks much cooler with rain and clouds around:

Click to enlarge

And I hate to say it... but we have our SECOND CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE of the season tonight! Hurricane RITA continues to gain strength in the Gulf of Mexico. This evening, the storm is the THIRD most INTENSE hurricane in the Atlantic Basin on RECORD!! Here are the latest stats:

POSITION: ABOUT 580 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 680 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS.

MOTION: TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

WINDS: MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 165 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

PRESSURE: FALLING RAPIDLY DURING THE DAY AND THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 898 MB...26.52 INCHES.

Pretty amazing. And very impressive on satellite. Click the image below to see the loop:

The path of RITA thus far, is errily close to that of Katrina. But this storm will continue a northWESTERLY track... making landfall somewhere along the central Texas coast. Right now, it looks like it would be South of Houston and Galveston. Many communities along the Texas coast have already begun MANDATORY evacuations. FYI... the population of Houston is about FOUR times greater than pre-Katrina New Orleans. That is a lot of cars on the road, trying to get out of town...

Now, could Rita affect our weather? Some of the models continue to show that! It looks like it would be next Tuesday or Wednesday right now... but we'll see...

Jamie

Posted by at 8:17 PM | Comments (1)

Rita, could she affect our weather?

Hurricane Rita is gaining strength as she moves into the Gulf of Mexico. There is a high likelyhood that Rita will become a category 4 hurricane or stronger. The upper level steering currents are projecting a landfall near Houston or south of there on the Texas coast. If she hits the Texas coast south of Houston then Rita could actually affect our weather. The GFS precipitation forecast (see map below) shows the heaviest rain of the remnants of Rita potentially hitting us. It is still a few days away. Look below. We will know a lot more by tomorrow.

The other big forecast problem is the cold front moving our way and through us on Thursday evening. This should cool us off significantly and I believe the computer models are way too warm and thus our cooler forecast for Friday through Sunday in the 70s. It may be in the 60s for highs.

Posted by at 4:26 PM | Comments (2)

Still the Chance...

As we go through the evening hours, a warm front is lifting through the area. This will keep us with the chance of a few spotty showers or thunderstorms yet this evening. Here is the 5pm surface map, showing the front:

Click to enlarge

And here is a look at the spotty activity on Live Triple Action Doppler as of 5:50pm:

CLICK HERE TO SEE *LIVE* TRIPLE ACTION DOPPLER

AND as we go through the day Monday... a COLD FRONT will be moving through. That will keep us with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms through Monday afternoon. Here is the NAM's take on it:

Click to enlarge

And right now... Tuesday looks nice... dry, sunny and warm!

Tropical Depression 18 has become Tropical Storm Rita this evening:

Click to enlarge

You can see, it is forecasted to track, as a hurricane, into the Gulf of Mexico. Our very active tropics continue...

Jamie

Posted by at 5:44 PM | Comments (2)

Oh No, Not more Tropical Systems!

The tropics remain active. We just got rid of Ophelia. She is racing northeast, just east of Nova Scotia, as a tropical storm. What's next? There are 3 systems we are watching in the Atlantic Ocean. One is just east of Africa, the second is east of the Antilles, north of South America and the third is north of Hispanola. (See satellite image below). The most impressive is the second. It is now tropical storm Philippe. The first one is now tropical depression #18. This may become Rita in 24 hours. This has the potential to become a hurricane. In 2-3 days it could end up in the Gulf of Mexico. Hopefully, it will stay away from the devastated areas.

By the way, Stan would be the next after Rita.

Posted by at 7:58 PM | Comments (1)

Stormy!!

A viewer writes in with her request:

Hi Gary,
Can you please post a picture of your dog Stormy? I have a mixed breed dog named Peyton and I have heard from several people that she looks just like Stormy. I am wondering if maybe they aren't from the same breed? Peyton is also 4.5 years old. I just bought a stuffed animal from Hy-Vee of Stormy- by the way. It looks so much like Peyton.
Thanks!
Holly

And of course we deliver! Here ya go, Holly:

Isn't Stormy CUTE?? :)

Now on to the forecast! How great was today?? We started off pretty chilly... here are some of the area lows this morning:

KCI: 49
DOWNTOWN: 51
ST. JOSEPH: 44
LEE'S SUMMIT: 49
PLEASANT HILL: 50
OLATHE: 51
SEDALIA: 56
KIRKSVILLE: 50
CHILLICOTHE: 49

And this afternoon's highs were generally in the middle 70s... with LOW humidity!! It sure felt nice! But, of course, we know it won't last for long! As we go into the weekend we will start to see changes. One, is that an area of HIGH PRESSURE will slip EAST of Kansas City. On the back side of that high... we will see what we call a "RETURN FLOW".

Return flow typcially means a strong flow of warm, moist air will occur, after a period of drier and cooler weather. When the winds shift back to a southerly direction, temperatures and dewpoints (moisture) will be on the rise. You can see what I'm talking about on the surface forecast map below. High pressure spins clockwise, and as it moves east of us... southerly winds will move into KC:

Click to enlarge

In this particular situation the return flow will be enhanced by the surface low moving into the northcentral Plains. In response, temperatures Saturday will be in the lower 80s... and we can expect middle 80s on Sunday.

As the warm, moist air moves in... we can't rule out a spotty shower or thunderstorm Saturday, but I think most of the day will be dry. HOWEVER.... a better chance of rain comes Sunday night into Monday as a front sags down on us. Jeff Penner will have more on that tomorrow... he is filling in!

Hope you have a super weekend!
Jamie

Posted by at 7:50 PM

Gary's Pic

We're still getting great viewer pictures in! Including one from our very own Gary Lezak:

He is off this week... but was still watching the skys on Tuesday night when we had our storms. He will be back on Monday!

These next few are from Joel Speck of Olathe:

Thanks, Joel... and everyone else... for sending us your pictures! Now I need to mention the fake Hurricane Katrina pictures that have been circulating through emails! You might have seen them:

These are actually severe thunderstorm pictures... notice there is no water around? They were taken in the Midwest, Iowa to be exact! I have seen them over and over again in different emails. The titles I have seen: "Hurricane Katrina Coming In," "Severe Texas Storms," "Severe Oklahoma Storms," "Storms in Canada".... etc. Soooo don't be fooled!! :)

On to the forecast! Today turned out exactly as expected... a gray, wet, and COOL day! Our high was 66 degrees... we forecasted 67... so were were only off by one. BUT that high came shortly after midnight, and we spent most of the afternoon in the LOWER 60s.

Things look better for Friday, though! After some morning fog, we'll rebound in the afternoon with sunshine and comfortable temperatures. Highs should be in the upper 70s!

Then the weekend looks MOSTLY nice... but there IS a slight chance of a spotty shower or thunderstorm on Saturday, and a better chance of rain on Sunday. We will get a better handle on it as new data comes in tomorrow!

Have a great night!
Jamie

Posted by at 8:16 PM | Comments (1)

More Viewer Pics

I wanted to post a few more photos we received of last night's amazing sky. Here ya go:

These first two are from Callie Hanson of Leawood, Kansas:

The next pics are from Tara Murphy of Overland Park:

And this last one... a beautiful double rainbow... is from Kelly and Hayley Griffin:

Kelly and Hayley ask, "what causes double rainbows, and how often do they occur?"

Well, to answer your question... rainbows happen when the sunlight reflects off rain in the atmosphere. What is happening here? In a rainbow, raindrops in the air act as tiny prisms. Light enters the raindrop, reflects off of the side of the drop and exits.

When you see TWO rainbows together... this is called "double rainbow" or "secondary rainbow". These are caused by the same thing that causes the first rainbow, refraction of light through water droplets. The first rainbow is caused by the light refracting once through the droplets. The second rainbow is caused by the light that gets bounced around inside the droplet and exits at a slightly different angle! But because the sunlight is being reflected not once, but twice by each raindrop... these double rainbows are usually fainter than their counterparts! AND their colors are reversed... pretty neat!

A double rainbow is fairly common... if the sun angle is right. Your best chance to see one is to place yourself between the rain and the sun... and look towards the rain.

As for our forecast... THURSDAY looks like it could be wet!! Look at the showers and thunderstorms that have developed over western Kansas this evening:

Click to enlarge

That complex of rain is heading our way! It is being caused by an upper level wave:

Click to enlarge

It looks like the rain will reach us by morning, and possibly stick around throughout the day. FRIDAY still looks great, though, with sunshine and comfortable temperatures!

A quick look at Ophelia... still a hurricane off the East Coast:

Click the image to loop

Sustained winds are 85 mph, with higher gusts. The North Carolina coast is taking a pounding, and will continue to get nailed through tomorrow.

Have a good night,
Jamie

Posted by at 7:46 PM | Comments (2)

Spectacular Sky!

In the blog entry below, I mentioned the AWESOME timelapse we were running. We can't wait to show you tonight at 10pm!

But many of you out this evening also saw the beautiful sky... and have shared your pictures with us! Thank you for sending them in... here are a few of our favorites:

From Nichole Elkins of Raymore, Missouri

From Jeff Thompson of Olathe, Kansas

From Ted and Debi Randall of Overland Park, Kansas

From Jacob Beaman of Belton, Missouri

From Marie Tayrien of Parkville, Missouri

From Kandice Fleming of Raymore, Missouri

From Jennifer Dunlay of Olathe, Kansas

From Kerry Baskins of Overland Park, Kansas

From Tricia Nugen of Belton, Missouri

THANKS TO YOU ALL!! :)
Jamie

Posted by at 8:56 PM

Right on TIme!

Thunderstorms are scattered across the viewing area this evening... right on time! The cold front is pushing through as I type this. It has already come through St. Joseph, with north winds and falling temperatures.

Some of the storms are severe, especially in our southern counties. Remember yesterday the models had the heaviest rain south of us? Well, here is a look at this evening's radar:

We have even had SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS for some of those southern counties. Here is a LINK TO THE SPC to stay on top of our watch/warning situation.

As the front continues through, that cooler air will continue to spill into our area. Check out the temperatures behind the front:

Click to enlarge

I know it is hard to read... this is a look at current surface observations. Each station is represented by a little green circle. If that circle is colored in... that means it's cloudy. If it's clear, that means it's clear! Anyway, the RED number to the upper-left of each station is the current TEMPERATURE. You can see that behind the front, we are seeing 70s and even some 60s working in. Our highs tomorrow will likely stay in the 70s, too!

It looks like we will have a pretty cool timelapse of the sky this evening, if you tune in tonight at 10pm! Otherwise, I have to cut this short to keep an eye on these storms!

Jamie

Posted by at 6:34 PM

Tuesday

Good evening! Sorry for the late entry. MNF is addicting!

We are still thinking showers and thunderstorms will be around tomorrow afternoon/evening. There are signs that the heaviest rain will be south of KC, though:

Click to enlarge

The front looks like it will be south of us to start Wednesday... so we will be dry, cloudy and cooler. BUT, once again, it looks like the front will lift back north a bit, as a warm front late Wednesday. This could bring another CHANCE of rain. Here is the NAM's take on it:

Click to enlarge

That is the 12-hour precipitation forecast, ending Thursday morning. As you can see, the heaviest is STILL south and east of us. It might seem like we should get something out of it because there is a wave right over us:

Click to enlarge

BUT other parameters aren't coming together to support a great shot. We'll keep it at 30% for now! Tonight's NAM has Thursday as a pretty nice afternoon!

Have a great tomorrow!
Jamie

Posted by at 9:27 PM

Not Long Now

Our change is looming.

It is still two days away, but we are getting there! It is STILL looking like it will be TUESDAY before the cold front reaches us... bringing the return of showers and thunderstorms. Here is the latest model data to back that up:

Click to enlarge

And we are seeing signs that the rain could begin earlier... perhaps in the afternoon.

Now, however, it does look like the front will continue well south of KC. So that means a cooler airmass will settle in for a few days of dry, pleasant weather!! :)

Then, as the warm air returns next weekend... we could see another shot of rain.

So what IS going on with HURRICANE OPHELIA?! Oh, yes... she IS still out there... probably sitting close to the same spot she was the last time you checked! ;) This storm has been pretty much stationary for almost 24 hours... it's still off the coast of the Carolinas. In being so, it has weakened slightly... and is barely a Cat. 1. Winds are 75mph sustained, with higher gusts. Here is a look at the satellite:

Click image to loop

The forecasted path takes Ophelia across the North Carolina coastline... the Outer Banks may take a beach-erosion beating:

Click to enlarge

Hope you had a great weekend! See ya tomorrow!
Jamie :)

Posted by at 5:52 PM

Weather & Sports

OK... too many good sporting events to choose from this weekend! This is truely my favorite time of the year for that very reason. I loooove football... college and pro!

I was born & raised a Browns fan back in Ohio, but I will cheer for the Chiefs, too, bcs they don't play the Browns this season! :)

ANYWAY... as you know, my other passion is weather. And as for the forecast, no change from yesterday's thinking. Sunday will be PERFECT for the Chiefs game... with temps in the middle 80s at kickoff... and highs near 90 degrees. Here is the forecast:

Monday, we will most likely see more in the way of cloud cover... as moisture begins to increase. We're still expecting the COLD FRONT we have been talking about to move in late TUESDAY. Then we'll have to see exactly how LONG that front will affect our weather... as it looks like it could hang around awhile!

Hope you're having a great weekend... go Chiefs!! (and Browns!)
Jamie

Posted by at 7:54 PM | Comments (4)

Quiet Weekend

It looks like our tranquil weather will continue as we head into the weekend. Our highs for the past SEVEN days have been in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees. Today we hit 90, and it looks like this trend will continue on into the weekend. Here is why:

Click to enlarge

Notice there is a large upper level ridge (the ANTIcyclone) dominating the central and eastern part of the country. It will be warm and mainly dry under this feature. But look what's happening in the Northwest part of the country! Man that's a good trough digging in. That will slowly head our way and increase our rain chances. It looks like it will drive a front towards us by Tuesday:

Click to enlarge

At least one of our models shows that front hanging around for a few days after it gets here. That *could* mean a stormy period for us. Of course, this is still a long way out... but here is one scenario below:

Click to enlarge

That is a look at potential rainfall totals from Tuesday through Friday of next week. If it plays out, some of the viewing area could see 3 inches! We'll continue to keep you updated on the big change!

In other news, we will also be tracking Ophelia, which is back up to a hurricane (A Category One... winds are 75mph). The storm is still sitting of the US East coast, about 175 miles east-northeast of Daytona Beach, FL... and 220 miles south-southeast of Charleston, SC.

Click to see the LOOP

Ophelia is expected to meander out at sea for a couple of days before making landfall Monday night or Tuesday of next week. Right now, landfall looks like it could be anywhere from Georgia to North Carolina.

I will be here this weekend... and all next week for Gary! He is off... but not resting. He is *moving*!

Have a great Friday night!
Jamie

Posted by at 7:59 PM

Changes sometimes mean NOTHING

A huge change is taking place in the weather pattern and yet what does it mean for us? Almost nothing for a while, but then it could mean a lot soon. Below is the 500 mb map forecast for Sunday. A summertime upper high is strong and over Missouri with a Fall storm over the western United States. This will keep us warm and humid with no rain for a few more days, but then everyting will go into motion with cold fronts becoming regular in about a week and from then on.

Get ready for some big changes in actual weather in about a week. More on these possible changes tomorrow.

Posted by at 6:31 PM | Comments (1)

Small Rain Chances

Good morning,
Wow I haven't had a blog entry in more than week. It has been pretty busy around here with "Kansas City Live" now off the ground and running. That is the new show I host with Meredith Hoenes every weekday at 10:00 a.m. Check it out today on your NBC Action News Station. Gary Lezak is on today. He'll talk about the Windy & Stormy plush toys and his winter weather pattern theory.
On to the topic of today's weather. It is a challenging forecast if you are talking about rain. It will be warm and a lot of clouds will be overhead but will it rain? A Cold front is way north of Kansas City so the chances today are remote, 20-percent maybe.
Tomorrow is looking like a better chance, as of this morning anyway. Below are two computer models, for tomorrow afternoon, that when compared place some rain here as warmer air moves back into K-C.

The second model "the GFS" also has the thunderstorm complex developing and moving southeast into Missouri. The question right now is how far west will the showers form.

So rain is the challenge, forecasting the high temperature seems pretty straight forward. It should stay in the upper 80s through the weekend.

Have a great Wednesday,

Brett

Posted by at 6:34 AM

Rain chances and tropics

The weather pattern is changing every day at an increased pace. But, we believe what is going on now has NOTHING to do with the winter forecast. This is something that we will concern ourselves with 5 or 6 weeks from now.

Below is the NAM forecast for Thursday morning. The front is now forecasted to sneak into northern Missouri and with the flow aloft from the northwest I am thinking that our chance of thunderstorms is increased a bit. Also look at the surface low forecasted to be over Florida. The peak of hurricane season occurs this week and it is getting active. Watch the thunderstorm complex forming east of Florida. If anything is going to happen then this area will blow up with thunderstorms within a couple of days.

Gary

Posted by at 9:56 PM | Comments (2)

Changing pattern

It is Sunday evening and we are on late because of Nascar. There are 45 laps left to go so we are likely on tonight at 11 PM. Hopefully some of you will be watching. I am here tonight as Jamie Krumheuer is off for a few days.

Well, we are moving through September pretty quietly so far. The weather pattern is in major transition right now. A cold front will be slowing down as it approaches the area Wednesday. If it gets here we could see some very heavy rainfall, but it appears now that the front will stall to our north and then move back northward. This will be happening in response to the jet stream diving southward near the west coast. This will keep us warm for a while. Below you can see the 500 mb charts for Monday and for one week from Monday. Look at the jet stream diving into the western U.S.

click to enlarge (this is Labor Day 500 mb flow) This shows the jet stream much further north than the prediction for one week from now over the western U.S. seen below

Click to enlarge

Posted by at 10:20 PM | Comments (1)

Fall Changes

Now that we are in September, we begin to look for fall changes. These changes are directly tied into the jet stream. During the summer, the jet stream usually retreats to the north into Canada. As fall begins the jet stream strengthens and begins to flow further south. January & February is when the jet stream reaches its peak strength & usually its furthest south. Note, the jet stream is caused by temperature differences, cold north-warm south. During the winter the colder air is further south, so the temperature gradient in the atmosphere is further south, hence the jet stream is further south.

So are we seeing any signs that the jet stream is headed south? Yes,
below are 2 upper level charts. The first one is from today. You will see that the jet stream (tigter collection of lines) is in southern Canada. The second map is a forecast for 10 days from now. Notice, how the jet stream is forecasted to sag south into the United States. This means in 8-15 days we may have our first fall cold front.

MAP 1: Upper Level Chart from September 3, 2005

MAP 2: Upper Level Chart Forecast September 13, 2005

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Posted by at 7:09 PM | Comments (1)

Surprise rain

This is likely the worst forecast we made all year. It rained around noon today as a complex of thunderstorms moved in from central Kansas. I was watching them early this morning, and I thought they would fall apart. They didn't. And, heavy thunderstorms moved across Olathe to Overland Park and south of that line.

Will this happen again early Friday? I think so, as we are in the tropical monsoonal flow. Another disturbance over New Mexico is heading our way and a complex of thunderstorms is likely again. But, where it tracks is still very uncertain.

Rainfall amounts for August, since today is August statistics day!

Pleasant Hill, MO: 12.82"
Shawnee, KS: 11.27"
Lee's Summit, MO: 10.55"
Prairie Village: 10.32"
Leawood, KS: 9.94"
Olathe, KS: 9.81"
KCI Airport: 8.34"

I will try to issue an outlook for September soon.

Gary

Posted by at 6:25 PM | Comments (3)