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A four corners storm system
The weekend could be majorly affected by a storm that may become more negatively tilted (yesterdays' blog) as it moves into Kansas Saturday. Moisture may be drawn in from the Gulf of Mexico and this could lead to thunderstorms. Below is the forecast rainfall for this weekend. After this goes by a more substantial storm dives into the western United States. This will allow us to warm up.
Click to enlarge (shows rainfall forecast this weekend)
Remember my weather pattern theory. The pattern sets up between October 15th and November 5th and then begins cycling. So, we are now just 16 days away from then beginning stages of the new pattern. It, will hopefully be very exciting this season. The big problem with my theory is that if it sets up into a bad pattern then we know it could be a long boring season. We are so due for an exciting stormy pattern, but this doesn't help any at all. It is so random and we will patiently wait.
We have received a lot of comments. I will address those by 9 PM tonight. I PROMISE!
Gary
Posted by at September 29, 2005 5:54 PM
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Hey Gary,
I am a college student in Maryville and this morning there was a heavy frost here. Just wanted to say that!!!!
Thanks and keep up the good work.
Kinley,
I thought it would be a light frost up north. Thanks for keeping us updated.
Posted by: kinley at September 29, 2005 11:10 PM
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We sure are in a wacky weather pattern. Storm system coming in from the 4 corners region. That seems Strange for this time of year. Seems like that is where are big winter snow storms develop. I wonder if this Storm could dump some big time heavy rain on us ?
Steve Newport
DeSoto Kansas
Steve,
This isn't really that unusual. Upper lows often get into the southwest part of the nation at this time of the year. The NAM produces over 1 inch of rain. The GFS gives us about .35"
Gary
Posted by: Steve Newport at September 30, 2005 4:55 AM
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Hey Gary,
A couple of days ago at 5:00 you said you were going to give your long range forcast at 6:00, but I had to leave and couldn't watch. I thought maybe you'd repeat it at 10:00, but you didn't. Could you maybe post to this blog what you are expecting? Thanks a bunch!
Tammy,
A trough is going to be forming in the western USA next week. After this weekend rain system we will be warm & humid Sunday through Tuesday. The western trough should move through Wednesday-Thursday with rain and a strong cold front. The pattern is in major transition, so any forecast beyond 3-5 days is tough.
Gary
Posted by: Tammy at September 30, 2005 5:24 PM
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Has it ever snowed in October the last few years? On average when is the first snow fall?
Ben,
Almost every October we get some flurries or rain mixed with snow. The last time we had significnat snow in October was 10/22/96...6" to 8". We average 1" of snow in November.
Jeff Penner
Posted by: Ben at September 30, 2005 7:36 PM
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