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A Halloween Rainstorm

A series of disturbances now entering the United States from the Pacific Ocean will consolidate into one decent storm system over the Rockies on Sunday night. It looks like this storm will intensify Monday and track southeast into the southern Plains. By Monday evening the center of the surface low will be about 500 miles south of KC. This means we will be on the northern fringe of the storm. There is a 30% chance we will get some rain from it. We will have to watch it closely, because one slight shift north means we could have a wet trick or treat time. See the forecast image of the surface for 6 PM Monday from our GFS model. It is awfully close. The first shade of green is .01" to .10" in a 6 hour period, while the turqoise dot is 1.25" to 1.50" in a 6 hour period. We are in the first shade, but it could be overdone. At worst, it would be some brief light showers from noon to 6 PM Monday. This a "Tricky" forecast.

Click to enlarge

Posted by at 7:53 PM | Comments (3)

Weather Pattern Part 3

We are getting stronger indications of what the winter will be like. There will be some unanswered questions even when we make our winter forecast around November 10th. I am not excited about what I am seeing as a very bland weather pattern for the middle of the nation is trying to set up. Below you can see the new GFS 500 flow forecast for 168 hours. This 7 day forecast shows a broad western ridge and a fairly flat one which could allow us to reach record breaking temperatures for the region soon. Remember the theory....the weather pattern sets up between October 15th and November 5th and then begins cycling. We are setting up now and there are some interesting features and characteristics to this evolving pattern. It may not seem exciting right now, but this doesn't mean I won't have a different oppinion soon. Just yesterday I was seeing much more potential. Today it looks completely different. Let's see what it looks like next week. Just now, Jeff Penner made me look at the new 240 hour map. I told him to wait, but he forced me to look and what do we see............NOTHING. The 500 ridge is still in the west at day 10. It will be a miracle if we set up into an exciting pattern. Now, I am being a bit emotional right now. More later......

Posted by at 5:49 PM | Comments (6)

Changing weather pattern?

Above is the 18z GFS model 264 hour map at 500 mb. 18z means 1 PM data, so this is the latest long range prognostication. It has about a 10% chance of even coming close to being somewhat correct. But, I am excited about it because it shows some strong trend away from what has been consistant in the models of late. However, I am only slightly excited as I know it is wrong. Let's see what we are thinking Friday when I make my fourth update on the evolving pattern. The map shows the jet stream plowing into the west coast and the entire pattern is massively realigning.

Everything else is going well. I did get the link to the David Letterman bit he did on me last week. Go to the following address:

http://kshb.dayport.com/viewer/viewerpage.php?Art_ID=145359

to see how we showed it on the air.

Gary

Posted by at 7:59 PM | Comments (4)

Jamie gets married

Below is a great picture that Jamie just sent to us. She and her husband Ken just got married Saturday night. She looks so happy and now they are going on their honeymoon! She will be back in about a week.

Have a great time Jamie!!!! We miss you!

Gary and the NBC Action Weather team

Posted by at 7:04 PM | Comments (2)

Weather Pattern Part 3

It is way to early to make any projections for the winter pattern. We believe it is setting up right now and there is a lot of complex organization going on. We have seen two storm systems dive into the western part of the country and come out into the plains. It has been very wet in the northeast. A lot of other specific events are going on, but what does it all mean. The specific results of the weather in the past few days may or may not reappear later in the season. The overall pattern will be cycling, but specific events like our rain today may or may not be back as the season progresses.

Below you can see the 500 mb forecast by the NAM model for Saturday night. A cold upper level low is developing and dropping into the Mississippi River valley. So, we are on the back side and this should dry us out for a few days. How we come out of this deeper eastern trough will go a long way into deciding what may happen this winter. Please give me another two to three weeks and we will have it figured out.

Gary

Posted by at 4:42 PM

Stormy night

Thunderstorms are heading our way as I am writing this entry. It is 9:40 PM and an upper low is moving across western Kansas. The heaviest rain will likely be up in northwestern Missouri, north of Kansas City. Thursday should be cloudy with some drizzle or light rain and the winds shifting to the north.

Jeff Penner, our weather producer, had surgery today and he is in the hospital and doing well. He will be back to work next week sometime. So, it is busy around here without Jeff around.

Jamie Krumheuer is in Ohio getting married on Saturday. I can only imagine what it is like for her right now, and her fiance is a Chicago Whitesox fan so I know what they will be doing on their honeymoon......watching some baseball.

More tomorrow on the evolving weather pattern.

Gary Lezak

Posted by at 9:43 PM | Comments (1)

Rain likely?

Above, click to enlarge, is the latest NAM data showing us in the access of rainfall for Wednesday night and Thursday. I am concerned that as the storm approaches that it will begin weakening and turning southeast, but I think it holds together long enough to bring most of our region some rain that we need. I am sorry about the lack of blogging. I will get you updated tomorrow night.

Gary Lezak

Posted by at 10:03 PM | Comments (5)

A Fabulous Fall Weekend!

What a great weekend weather-wise! We had comfortable temperatures, and it was dry. Well, for the most part anyway. An upper level wave caused a few light showers in the northern part of the viewing area today. Most places remained dry, but you probably noticed all the high clouds around. These were also part of the disturbance! The clouds are actually making for a beautiful sunset... I will show a timelapse tonight at 10pm!!

So we are in for some warmer air again this week! Friday we were in the mid 80s... we could easily do that again over the next few days! We're still watching our old friend the "cut off low"! The latest one is currently just off the Southern California coast:

Click to enlarge

You can see all the clouds this low is bringing to the southwest US and to parts of Mexico. This is our next rain-maker... but being "cut off"... it is going to take awhile to get here! Probably reaching us late Wednesday/early Thursday. Here's the GFS's forecast for Thursday afternoon:

Click to enlarge

As Jeff mentioned in Saturday's blog... ANOTHER tropical depression has formed. This is TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24. It is located south of Cuba, and Southwest of Jamaica. Here is a look at the satellite image, click on it to see the loop:

TD 24 is expected to strengthen into a Tropical Storm in the next day or so... and could eventually become a hurricane as it moves into the Gulf of Mexico. It would be named "Wilma".

One of my co-workers asked, "How can this be number 24 if we are only on the W's?" And the answer to that question is that not EVERY tropical depression that formed acutally MADE it to Tropical Storm or Hurricane status. So not all of them got names!

I am keeping an especially close eye on TD 24, as our honeymoon is in Jamaica in a WEEK!! Yes, I leave tomorrow for Ohio, where I will marry the love of my life! :) We are very excited, and we can hardly believe the day is almost here! I will post some wedding pictures when I return, and of course some nice pictures of Jamaica! So you won't see me on the air for a couple of weeks. Gary, Brett and Jeff will be sharing weekend duties!

Wish us luck... and I will see you in November!!

Jamie

Posted by at 7:09 PM | Comments (2)

A Weak Disturbance & Wilma?

A weak, moisture starved, disturbance is approaching us from New Mexico. It will pass us Monday morning. We will get lots of clouds and maybe a sprinkle/shower Sunday night. So, our sky will not be crystal clear like Friday and Saturday.

A new area of T-Storms is boiling near Jamaica. This is tropical depression #24. It may very well become Wilma by Sunday or Monday (see satellite and forecast track below). She could head into the Gulf of Mexico and become a rather strong hurricane next week. Wilma is the last name on the list. So, what do they do after they run out of names? They use the Greek alphabet. So after Wilma, is Alpha, then Beta, then Gamma. What an amazing hurricane season?

Click to enlarge images

SATELLITE
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5 DAY FORECAST TRACK

Posted by at 8:53 PM | Comments (1)

Weather Pattern Theory Part 2

Well, guess what tomorrow is? It is October 15th. My theory states that the weather pattern sets up between October 15th and November 5th. What has happened before this date may have something to do with the overall evolution but something that happens across the northern hemisphere occurs during these critical three weeks.

The east coast has been getting blasted by rain storm after rain storm. The west coast is about to get hit. The middle of the nation is quite calm, but once again it is only October 14th. So, let's check back in a week from now with Part 3 and I will let you know what we are seeing.

Below is the 228 hour valid around 10 days from now. Major changes are taking place as the jet stream is strengthening. However the energy seems to still be producing storm systems near the west coast and over the eastern part of the nation. We will see how this evolves.
.

Gary Lezak

Posted by at 5:56 PM | Comments (2)

A Great Day!

Gary said it all below... we are going into a beautiful period of fall weather! It is actually going to be warmer than average... with highs in the lower 70s today, and near 80 for Friday!! Average highs this time of year are in the upper 60s.

Late Friday, a weak cold front will clip the area. See the NAM model below:

Click to enlarge

It will not bring us any rain, just a slight wind shift... and as a result, temperatures will be a few degrees cooler going into the weekend. But it's still going to be a GREAT weekend, with highs in the mid and upper 70s. Can't beat that!

Enjoy the great weather!
Jamie

Posted by at 7:39 AM | Comments (1)

Dry & beautiful

The weather pattern is going through major changes right now. There are several things going on. First of all a trough is forming from the Great Lakes to New England. This is a bit disturbing to me as I am hoping it isn't the beginning of another year of big New England storm systems. At the same time according to my theory this could very well be the beginning of the new pattern, but it is not a significant event or two that happens, but the entire pattern that is evolving over a 21 day stretch that helps us see the pattern.

Below is the 84 hour NAM 500 mb chart which also shows a big storm developing over the southwestern U.S. This is going to cut off from the main flow and jetstream and sit there for days. We go under a ridge aloft which should provide us with some very nice weather.

Gary

Posted by at 4:22 PM

Viewer Pictures

Good morning! No major forecast changes at this time... after a few isolated morning showers, we should be dry (but with cloudy periods) the rest of the day!

I just wanted to share some viewer pictures with you! These are both beautiful sky shots... from Dave Garrison of St. Joseph. First, his amazing sunset:

And next is his shot of an anvil in Oklahoma:

Thanks, Dave, for sending in the great pictures!

In other news... the tropics have quieted down quite a bit! No tropical cyclones at this time... but a few waves bear watching.

As for the continental US... the big weather news is the Eastern part of the country! I am sure you heard about the flooding rains they have seen there lately... and now they are expecting MORE heavy rain. Already, streams, creeks and rivers are running above flood stage, and they could see another three to five inches of rain by week's end:

Click to enlarge

Gary & Jeff will blog more this evening!
Have a good day,
Jamie

Posted by at 10:51 AM | Comments (1)

Nice weather

Below, you can see the 500 mb flow (18,000 feet) forecast by the NAM model for Friday evening. A ridge aloft is trying to move out of the Rockies and into the Plains. This will allow us to have a beautiful weekend. Major changes are occuring overall, but the first major storm of the season shows up on this same map over the northeast U.S.

Gary

Posted by at 10:03 PM

Weather Pattern theory part 1

Good evening everyone! It is almost October 15th which is a very exciting date to me. It was sometime during the mid 1990s that I noticed a new weather pattern sets up around this date and shows itself between October 15th and November 5th. And, now, years later I have been studying the weather patterns and I believe this happens every year without exception.

My theory: A unique pattern sets up every year between October 15th and November 5th. This pattern then begins cycling. We can make a first guess as to what the weather pattern may be, but it isn't until the first cycle is complete before we "know" the pattern. This completion date is variable. Last year we were in what we believe to have been a 73-77 day cycle. The year before was roughly a 54 day cycle and in 2002-2003 it was a 34 to 38 day cycle.

So what will the pattern be this winter and in the months that follow? Well, it is too early to tell.

We will have part 2 later this week.

Gary

Posted by at 9:48 PM | Comments (7)

Rocky Mountain Snow

The storm I talked about yesterday is now affecting the Denver area! After yesterday's high of 83 there, today it is raining, and the high temperature has only been 54! Tomorrow, temperatures won't even make it out of the 30s! There are winter storm WARNINGS in effect... as they could get some major snow! Some places could see a foot or more:

Click to enlarge

The map above also illustrates that through Monday night... we are not expecting any significant precipitation here in Kansas City. The storm continues to be a slow-mover... and now may be even slower than we thought yesterday. It looks like Wednesday might be our rainy day... with possible rain continuing into early Thursday.

But we won't see nearly as much precip as Colorado and Wyoming. Here is the accumulated rain forecast for KC from Monday through Thursday night:

Click to enlarge

It looks like it will be a light rain event!
Enjoy your Sunday evening!
Jamie

Posted by at 4:45 PM | Comments (2)

Status Quo

Hello, what a BEAUTIFUL fall day!! I hope you got to enjoy it! Wall-to-wall sunshine, light winds, and highs in the lower 60s. Wow.

Tomorrow (Sunday) will be a lot like today, maybe even a tad warmer. There is no major weather feature that will change for us... high pressure will still be to our northeast, and winds will be light.

What we ARE watching is a storm way off to our west. Here is a look at that storm by Sunday night:

First, aloft:

Click to enlarge

And now at the surface:

Click to enlarge

By Sunday night the storm will REALLY be affecting Colorado and Wyoming... and what will start off as rain will change over to SNOW! Winter storm watches are already in effect!

Keep in mind that today's high in DENVER was 82 degrees!! Monday they could see highs in the 30s, with several inches of snow on the ground!!

That same storm is our next rain-maker. It is a slow mover, so we probably won't get any rain until Tuesday or so. But we should start to notice clouds on the increase on Monday... and the chance of showers Tuesday and Wednesday.

Interesting time of year, that's for sure!!
Have a great evening!!
Jamie

Posted by at 5:52 PM

Patchy Frost for Some!

Good morning! Temperatures were held up a bit overnight, because of some cloud cover. But early this morning, they really dropped off as skies cleared. We did have some reports of patchy frost... here are some of the morning lows today:

KCI: 37
DOWNTOWN: 39
OLATHE: 39
LEES SUMMIT: 38
KIRKSVILLE: 35
SEDALIA: 40
CHILLICOTHE: 35
PLEASANT HILL: 37

Tomorrow we have an even better shot at some frost, as we will be clear and cold overnight. Why does it matter if we are clear? Well, the clouds overhead act as a blanket. The heat of the day rises at night, and if clouds are overhead... they will re-direct a lot of that escaping heat right back to us at the surface. BUT if it's a CLEAR night... there is nothing to help hold heat in... and more of it escapes into the atmosphere... leaving us COLD at the surface! Check out the diagram below:

Click to enlarge

AND cold air is DENSE air... so it sinks. This is why some of the lowest temperatures are typically found in valleys... :) Sooo take precautions if you have any vegetation you want to save!!

In other news, a storm is brewing to our west! We will look for it to move in early next week. Gary will have an update later today!

Have a great TGIF!!
Jamie

Posted by at 10:42 AM

Frost in Forecast

There was definitely a chill in the air this morning, as our temperatures dipped into the lower 40s. We will be even colder the next TWO mornings, with a chance of frost on the way!

Friday morning, we will likely see CLOUDS overhead and the WINDS will stay up a bit. This may help PREVENT a widespread frost. BUT patchy frost would still be possible, especially in our northern counties, as lows will likely be in the upper 30s.

On Saturday morning, there is a better shot at a more widespread frost! We will have clear skies and light winds... a good "radiational cooling" night! Lows will be in the middle 30s... brrrrr!

But it is NOTHING like the weather they have seen in North Dakota! Remember yesterday's entry about the winter storm? Well that storm dumped 10 to 20 inches of wet snow across the state. We aired some of the video this morning... we may just show it again during the 5 or 6pm shows, too! Here is a still shot from the AP:

An interesting statement by one of the Bismarck meteorologists:
“It is, on our records, probably one of the earliest ones, as far as our recorded history goes, in 126, 130 years,” said Sam Walker, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Bismarck.

I don't think I'm ready for snow yet!! Fall is actually my favorite season! :)

And speaking OF seasons... we are still in HURRICANE season... as it typically runs through the end of November. And you might not have even known it was around, but Tropical Storm Tammy has come and gone!

Tammy formed off the Florida east coast yesterday (Wednesday) morning... it made landfall Wednesday evening... and today is a tropical depression! Here are the latest stats:

LOCATION: OVER EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA, NEAR OZARK.

PRESSURE: 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

It's interesting that we are already at the "T's" and we still have almost two months to go! Next is Vince, then Wilma. THEN I believe we would go to the Greek alphabet! The storms will have names like Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta... wow!!

Have a great day!
Jamie

Posted by at 10:36 AM | Comments (1)

Cold Front Moving Through!

The cold front is moving through the area as I type this! I drew it in on our surface observation map:

Click to enlarge

Winds are shifting in from the northwest, and that will help to usher in some cooler air. So far, the high temperature at KCI is 76... and that seems like it will stand, as we have already fallen to 67 at this hour!

There is not much in the way of showers/thunderstorms with this front. Most of the activity is very spotty. We will keep a slight chance in the forecast through the afternoon... but what you'll REALLY notice is the drop in temperature. We will likely be in the 50s as many of you leave work this evening!

I wanted to pass along some great viewer photos today, too. Here is a sunset picture from last Sunday:

Karl Hammerberg took this in Olathe. The clouds we saw overhead on Sunday were actually feeding in from Tropical Storm Otis, which was spinning in the Pacific Ocean, near the Baja Penninsula. The clouds sure made for a beautiful sunset!!

In other tropical news... TROPICAL STORM TAMMY formed this morning, along Florida's east coast. Here are the latest stats:

MOTION: NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH
WINDS: MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SOME ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY.
PRESSURE: 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES

Tammy is basically moving parallel to the coast right now, so it's hard to say where the storm will make landfall! Here is the TPC's forecasted track:

Click to enlarge

Moving on to some more pictures.... these are of weekend flooding on highway 24 near Grantville, Kansas (Jefferson County):

Brenda Bohanann sent this one in... saying that the flooding closed quite a few schools! It really is a GOOD thing that today's cold front is not a big rain-maker!!

But the same storm that is affecting us in KC is bringing blizzard-like conditions to the Northern Plains! Check out the Mesoscale Discussion they just put out:

Click to enlarge

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2321
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0112 PM CDT WED OCT 05 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ND

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 051812Z - 052245Z

HEAVY WET SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WCNTRL INTO NE ND FOR MUCH OF
THE AFTERNOON...WITH RATES OF 1.0-1.5 IN/HR POSSIBLE...IN ADDITION
TO VERY STRONG NLY WINDS.

OBSERVATIONAL DATA PORTRAYS OCCLUDING LOW ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS
INTO WRN MN. ON THE NW PERIPHERY OF THIS CYCLONE...HEAVY WET SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN DEFORMATION ZONE/ON SRN
PERIPHERY OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. IN SPITE OF MARGINAL
LOW LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...HEAVY WET SNOW WILL REMAIN
PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE COINCIDENT WITH HIGHEST PRECIP RATES. AMPLE
OMEGA THROUGH DEEPLY SATURATED DENDRITIC LAYER WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
SNOW RATES OF 1.0-1.5 IN/HR...ALTHOUGH ACTUAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
HINDERED BY MILD GROUND TEMPS/MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS.

IN ADDITION...VERY STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS WCNTRL/NE ND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...CREATING NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES
AMIDST THE HEAVY WET SNOW. VAD DATA FROM MINOT WSR-88D EFFECTIVELY
SAMPLES 50-65 KT NELY WINDS WITHIN 1-3 KM LAYER...WITH LATEST RUC
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THIS CORE OF VERY STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO
EARLY EVENING.

..GUYER.. 10/05/2005

Have a good afternoon!
Jamie

Posted by at 1:11 PM | Comments (2)

Cold front!

Above you can see the GFS forecast for 1 PM Wednesday. The front should be past Kansas City with some rain around. There is a powerful upper level storm forming over the Dakota's with developing snow. There is some question of how much cold air will move in here Wednesday afternoon. We will have a west-northwesterly wind and it should drop into the 50s, but sometimes around an upper low to our north the cold air is mostly aloft. Temperatures are in the 40s across Nebraska so I have confidence that we will drop to at least 55 or maybe a bit lower Wednesday afternoon.

The winter weather pattern is about to set up. It hasn't yet and I will be blogging about this regularly beginning next week.

Gary

Posted by at 8:24 PM | Comments (3)

A Major Plains Storm

A potent storm will eject out of the Rockies Tuesday night & Wednesday. This front will sweep a strong cold front across Kansas & Missouri Wednesday. The weather will be very changeable here on Wednesday. We will likely start the day warm & muggy with temperatures in the 70s along with a chance of T-Storms. By noon it will become windy & much colder with temperatures falling into the 50s. Lows Thursday & Friday morning will likely be in the 30s.

Also, this storm may produce the first snowstorm of the season. Places like Bismarck, ND could see several inches of snow! The seasons have certainly changed.

Posted by at 9:33 PM | Comments (1)

Dawn Breaks on Flooding...

After a VERY stormy night... we got our first look at the heaviest hit counties today. 12 inches of rain was reported in Jefferson County, Kansas... while 10 inches fell in Jackson County, Kansas. Leavenworth County also saw some hefty totals. (see two blog entries ago titled "TORRENTIAL RAIN" to see the heavy swath of rain that fell northwest of the KC Metro).

All of this has left many roads under water as waterways spilled out of their banks. Cars were stranded... water has poured into homes... and this evening some areas are STILL seeing rising water, as it is flowing in from upstream. If you missed these amazing pictures, we will show them again tonight at 10pm.

Thank goodness the sun came out today. (I am running a nice sunset timelapse for 10pm, too). We should be dry overnight and through the day Monday. However... there is something we have to watch Monday afternoon. The models are picking up on an upper level wave... we'll have to watch it. Could mean a spotty shower or thunderstorm if we can break the cap:

Click to enlarge

The next significant chance of rain will come on Wednesday as another fall cold front heads our way. Ahead of this front, Monday and Tuesday will be warm and muggy. But once the front comes through, we should cool down. Here is a look at the 850mb temps for Friday morning:

Click to enlarge

Refreshing!
Have a good evening,
Jamie

Posted by at 6:32 PM

Flooding Update

Here is the latest from the NWS on our Kansas counties... Jefferson and Jackson:

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA HAS ISSUED A FLOOD WARNING EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1100 AM CDT SUNDAY MORNING FOR PEOPLE IN THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES

IN NORTHEAST KANSAS
JACKSON AND JEFFERSON

AT 450 AM...LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED MANY PRIMARY ROADS AND HIGHWAYS FLOODED IN SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF JACKSON COUNTY AND CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF JEFFERSON COUNTY. MOST COUNTY ROADS IN SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL JACKSON COUNTY WERE FLOODED AS WELL AS HIGHWAY 16 BETWEEN HOLTON AND BIRMINGHAM AND ALSO NEAR DENISON. SEVERAL HIGHWAYS IN MULTIPLE LOCATIONS WERE FLOODED IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL JEFFERSON COUNTY INCLUDING HIGHWAYS 59...92...AND 16.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
OSKALOOSA... HOLTON... MERIDEN... MCLOUTH... OZAWKIE... DELIA... HOYT... WINCHESTER... MAYETTA... VALLEY FALLS... DENISON... NORTONVILLE... CIRCLEVILLE... SOLDIER... PERRY LAKE AND POTAWATOMI RESERVATION.

DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION.

Posted by at 5:06 AM

TORRENTIAL RAIN!

A very early morning blog entry to tell you about some torrential rainfall that is occuring.

The heaviest rain has been on the Kansas side: Leavenworth, Atchision, Jackson, Jefferson and Shawnee counties. It has just begun to move into Missouri, affecting Platte county.

Looking at this doppler rainfall estimate, more than 10 inches of rain has fallen from this cutoff low. See the white part in Kansas? That is some major flooding:

Click to enlarge

Here is the NWS, to keep tabs on flooding info:
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE, PLEASANT HILL

Jamie

Posted by at 4:03 AM | Comments (2)

Rainy Evening

TODAY'S HIGH: 77
TODAY'S LOW: 59

Some parts of the viewing area are getting showers and thunderstorms this evening. Click on LIVE TRIPLE ACTION DOPPLER to see where the action is NOW.

What is causing the rain? We have an uppler level cutoff low. I am sure you have heard Gary call them, "Cutoff low, weatherman's woe". Well they are also weatherWOMAN's woe ;) ... as they move very slowly because they are not being steered by the main flow aloft. Soooo will the rain be over by kickoff?? It looks like it WILL! Take a look at the maps below. This is vorticity aloft... which leads to rising air... thus we can see rain. The first is for this evening, showing the storm on top of us:

Click to enlarge

Next, we take a look at Sunday morning. The storm is just to our North... still a chance of showers:

Click to enlarge

And now on to Sunday afternoon. The storm should be east of us... bringing about dry conditions for the remainder of the day:

Click to enlarge

The storm has kep temperatures down today, take a look at the high temp map below. We were in a cool pocket associated with the cutoff low:

But to our west, look at all that warm air building in! That will be moving in on us as the storm moves away. We can expect a few days in the lower and mid 80s before a stronger cold front drops temperatures by mid-week!

Jamie

Posted by at 8:51 PM