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A Halloween Rainstorm
A series of disturbances now entering the United States from the Pacific Ocean will consolidate into one decent storm system over the Rockies on Sunday night. It looks like this storm will intensify Monday and track southeast into the southern Plains. By Monday evening the center of the surface low will be about 500 miles south of KC. This means we will be on the northern fringe of the storm. There is a 30% chance we will get some rain from it. We will have to watch it closely, because one slight shift north means we could have a wet trick or treat time. See the forecast image of the surface for 6 PM Monday from our GFS model. It is awfully close. The first shade of green is .01" to .10" in a 6 hour period, while the turqoise dot is 1.25" to 1.50" in a 6 hour period. We are in the first shade, but it could be overdone. At worst, it would be some brief light showers from noon to 6 PM Monday. This a "Tricky" forecast.
Click to enlarge
Posted by at October 29, 2005 7:53 PM
I think that the track of the 2 low pressure systems will be the key to us getting rain or not. Remember that the flow is from a Low to a high pressure system. Clockwise movement around a high and counterclockwise around a low. The low pressure system will pull up any available moisture into it so watch the movement of the lows.
Steve Newport
DeSoto Kansas
Posted by: Steve Newport at October 29, 2005 8:13 PM
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What are the chances of KC having a significant rain event on Sunday Night or Monday? Significant meaning 1 inch or more.
Jarod,
The new data just came out and almost every model now has some rain here on Monday, but out of here by mid afternoon. So, the storm likely won't get its act together and rainfall amounts will likely be less than 1/4 inch.
Gary
Posted by: Jarod at October 30, 2005 12:58 PM
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Why has KCI not had a freeze yet when many locations like Lawrence and Saint Joseph have already had a freeze?
Devin,
It dropped to 33 again at KCI. There isn't much of an explanation that I can give you. Almost everyone around us has had a freeze or two, but the official thermometer has yet to drop that low.
Maybe early next week.
Gary
Posted by: Devin Kellerman at November 1, 2005 4:10 PM
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