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Weather Pattern Part 3

It is way to early to make any projections for the winter pattern. We believe it is setting up right now and there is a lot of complex organization going on. We have seen two storm systems dive into the western part of the country and come out into the plains. It has been very wet in the northeast. A lot of other specific events are going on, but what does it all mean. The specific results of the weather in the past few days may or may not reappear later in the season. The overall pattern will be cycling, but specific events like our rain today may or may not be back as the season progresses.

Below you can see the 500 mb forecast by the NAM model for Saturday night. A cold upper level low is developing and dropping into the Mississippi River valley. So, we are on the back side and this should dry us out for a few days. How we come out of this deeper eastern trough will go a long way into deciding what may happen this winter. Please give me another two to three weeks and we will have it figured out.

Gary

Posted by at October 20, 2005 4:42 PM