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Weather Pattern Part 3
We are getting stronger indications of what the winter will be like. There will be some unanswered questions even when we make our winter forecast around November 10th. I am not excited about what I am seeing as a very bland weather pattern for the middle of the nation is trying to set up. Below you can see the new GFS 500 flow forecast for 168 hours. This 7 day forecast shows a broad western ridge and a fairly flat one which could allow us to reach record breaking temperatures for the region soon. Remember the theory....the weather pattern sets up between October 15th and November 5th and then begins cycling. We are setting up now and there are some interesting features and characteristics to this evolving pattern. It may not seem exciting right now, but this doesn't mean I won't have a different oppinion soon. Just yesterday I was seeing much more potential. Today it looks completely different. Let's see what it looks like next week. Just now, Jeff Penner made me look at the new 240 hour map. I told him to wait, but he forced me to look and what do we see............NOTHING. The 500 ridge is still in the west at day 10. It will be a miracle if we set up into an exciting pattern. Now, I am being a bit emotional right now. More later......
Posted by at October 28, 2005 5:49 PM
So Gary, does this potentially mean below average precipitation and above average temps? With the price of gas I'm sure most people wouldn't complain. Have a great weekend.
Tammy
Tammy,
It is still too early to jump to conclusions. Very soon, however we can make our first guess.
Gary
Posted by: Tammy at October 29, 2005 10:21 AM
By this flow chart it looks to me like a pacific flow. It seems to me that in the winter a Pacific flow is normally a warmer winter air mass. For snow I think we need a canadian polar air mass to overide moisture pool where the cool air is allowed to flow down as it normally should. To me this looks like a warmer pattern that should give us cold rain not snow. Acording to Gary's repeating weater pattern this warmer pacific air mass should setup back up every how ever many days Gary's pattern says. Iam begining now to question if we get less then 20 inches of snow this winter? Begining to wonder if my Snowflake enetry of Nov. 27th was correct. Dont Know. Hey acording to this flow chart we may not get any messurable snow fall until the 2ond week in January ? Oh well just some educational thinking here.
Steve Newport
DeSoto Kansas
Steve,
The pattern is setting up, but we must analyze the data this week. It is very interesting with potential. When the flow amplifies we would be able to tap some Arctic air. How often this happens is in question.
Gary
Posted by: Steve Newport at October 29, 2005 3:29 PM
YAWN....again... oh well...
Storm Dog,
Don't worry yet!
Gary
Posted by: stormdog at October 29, 2005 6:42 PM
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Gary, this pattern really stinks as I am an avid bow hunter for deer. Do you see any cold air from Nov. 6th-24th.
Michael,
There is no sign of any cold weather, but it could change soon. The computer models all say warm for the next 15 to 20 days, but it often changes fast so we'll see.
Gary
Posted by: Michael Tongate at October 31, 2005 6:50 AM
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I'm one of the seeming few that actually waits on the edge of my seat for that cold weather and snow. The last few years have been pretty disappointing for snow lovers around here... hoping to see a few feet this winter!
Also-enough with the brown Christmases. I'll have a white Christmas if I have to paint my lawn....
Josh,
I am with you 100%. My winter forecast will be ready by the end of next week. There may be more potential than it seems right now, but let me analyze the data over the next few days and we can hope for some snow.
Gary
Posted by: Josh at October 31, 2005 7:40 PM
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Gary-
Great work. You're our local Joe Bastardi... and you have to pay $29 a month to read his columns!
Here's hoping for heaps of snow. Anxiously awaiting your winter forecast.
Josh,
Thank you for the compliment. We are still anaylzing the data. We have noticed many winter forecasts come out well before the weather pattern is even set up, and so we feel they are based on almost nothing. We should be ready by Thursday night.
Gary
Posted by: Josh at November 3, 2005 5:45 PM
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