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Snow Chance...

Hi, there!

We are starting off the day with sunshine and cold temperatures in the 20s this morning. As we head through the afternoon... sunshine (along with southerly winds) will help bump our highs into the lower 40s. But change is moving in once again!!

The newest data in this morning... shows some of our viewing area could see accumulating snow tonight!! Maybe 1-3 inches NORTH of KC... say up towards Maryville/Mound City. Here is the latest NAM accumulated precip forecast:

Click to enlarge

We still have a chance of light snow/flurries here in the Metro... but by the looks of it this morning... we will see little in the way of accumulation HERE.

HOWEVER... the storm is trending farther south... so it is something we will have to WATCH. Gary will have an update tonight at 5, 6 and 10pm!!

In other news... if you are interested in the results of the National Weather Service's damage assessment of the weekend's tornados... click here:

NWS DAMAGE ASSESSMENT

It looks like the Excelsior Springs/Lawson tornado was an F1!

Hope you have a great day!!
Jamie

Posted by at 9:13 AM | Comments (5)

Weather Pattern Theory Late November & toranadoes

We issued our winter forecast on November 10th. At that time I explained that this was our initial forecast and that we would know a lot more about what the weather pattern really is doing by sometime in December. I still need another week or two to get a stronger hold on this pattern, but one thing is certain. A pattern has set up and it is cycling. I don't think we have gone through the first cycle yet, so this is what I am waiting for. I am coming to one conclusion, however. The weather pattern is more energetic and has more potential for winter storm systems that I initially thought. So, let's see what we are thinking as we go into the next 10 days and I will issue an update to the winter forecast before December 20th, perhaps next week.

On another note, the tornadoes that occurred Sunday evening happened with temperatures at the surface near 60 degrees. The atmosphere was primed for tornadoes, with the one lacking ingredient being the surface heating. It obviously overcame that problem with some severe thunderstorms producing hail, damaging wind, and tornadoes.

Gary

Posted by at 9:06 AM | Comments (7)

Update

Just wanted to update you on our weather situation. It was a VERY busy late afternoon/evening here in the forecast center. Gary came in, and we tracked some pretty strong storms. We had reports of a tornado touchdown near Lawson in Ray County, Kansas. We also had some pretty devastating wind damage across parts of Platte County (Weston) and near Excelsior Springs in Clay County.

In Kansas... there were numerous tornado reports throughout the day. Here is a look at all of today's storm reports:

Click to enlarge

The reports you see above are preliminary. The National Weather Service will survey damage over the next couple of days to see if the Lawson damage really was a tornado... and also to determine if other wind damage could have been from a tornado. Stay tuned...

As for Monday's weather... here comes the cold! We'll start the day in the lower 40s, and temperatures will only fall from there! Expect mid-30s by mid-day... and lower 30s by the late afternoon. We could even see a few flurries!!

Talk about change!

Hope you had a great weekend!
Jamie

Posted by at 10:30 PM | Comments (1)

Severe Threat

TORNADO WATCH FOR SOME OF OUR KANSAS COUNTIES... UNTIL 8PM. THIS INCLUDES:
ANDERSON
FRANKLIN
DOUGLAS
SHAWNEE
LINN
MIAMI
JEFFERSON

I thought I would get a quick blog in... while things are still quiet. This afternoon, we have the potential for some severe weather. A rapidly intensifying storm is heading right for the KC metro area. It looks like we'll see stronger thunderstorms develop after 3pm and the threat will continue with us through the early evening hours. Some of the storms could contain large hail early... then the threat will switch to damaging winds... and maybe an isolated tornado. This is IF they get going. The reason I say that... we do not have a lot of instability today... and temperatures are only in the upper 50s right now. If we had more sunshine and warmed a bit... it would be more likely. But the winds aloft are pretty strong... and that can be favorable for storms... so we'll watch it this afternoon. Here is the latest from the SPC:

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

Keep an eye to the sky... and stay tuned to NBC Action News.
Jamie

Posted by at 1:45 PM | Comments (7)

Late November Storm & CYNTHIA'S 80s PICTURE!!!!

TODAY'S NUMBERS:
High: 67
Low: 40

Wow... another unseasonably WARM November day! Looking back on the month so far... we have been ABOVE AVERAGE 20 OUT OF 26 DAYS!!

Today's warm up is coming ahead of an approaching storm. This storm will intensify very quickly as it moves closer to Kansas City. Here is a look at the storm organizing over the Rockies this evening:

Click to enlarge

This is the 500mb chart... looking up at the energy 18,000 feet up in the atmosphere. That storm will head right across Kansas and come over the KC Metro area tomorrow afternoon/evening. Here is the forecast for the surface Sunday evening:

Click to enlarge

Ahead of the front, we will be in the 60s again, with gusty Southerly winds. As MUCH COLDER air comes in behind the front... it will lift our warm, moist air to form showers and thunderstorms. We could see some stronger storms... so we'll have to watch that. Here is the SPC's severe weather forecast:

Click to enlarge

The biggest threat would be KC and areas East of here. We'll watch for the potential for damaging winds/large hail/isolated tornadoes as the front approaches! And we will, of course, keep you posted! And, yes... you'll REALLY notice that colder air on Monday!

Now onto a subject we discussed last weekend... pictures from the 80s!! You saw me, Keith King, Michelle Loibner and Lisa Benson. Now, finally, I present to you... Cynthia Newsome!

I think she looks awesome!! Thanks for playing, Cynthia! :)

Have a good evening!
Jamie

Posted by at 7:09 PM

Upper Low is going north!

Above, You can see the upper low northwest of Kansas City on the latest GFS model. This is the 48 hour map for Sunday evening. As the energy from this storm moves by we can expect a few showers or thunderstorms. Some of the ingredients will be there for severe thunderstorms. But, let's see how it sets up.

We hope you are having a great holiday weekend.

Gary Lezak

Posted by at 10:28 PM | Comments (1)

A Cold Thanksgiving

TODAY'S NUMBERS:
HIGH: 48
LOW: 30 (and falling....)

HAPPY THANKSGIVING, EVERYONE!!

Temperatures have been dropping all day. That high of 48 degrees actually happened shortly after midnight. We've been in the 30s for the afternoon and evening hours. Wind chills are near 20 degrees as of this writing!

Friday we'll see things warm up a BIT as a warm front lifts through. I say a BIT because temperatures will still only be in the upper 40s, and it will be breezy. Expect mid-50s Saturday and Sunday... with an increase in clouds Saturday and the chance of rain starts Saturday night. Here is a look at the weekend storm as it moves into Kansas City:

Click to enlarge

This is the NAM for Sunday morning. Gary will have an update tonight at 10pm! I am off to eat some dinner with my family!

Hope you had a wonderful holiday!
Jamie

Posted by at 6:20 PM | Comments (1)

Snow in December?

Above, you can see the forecast for December 2nd at the surface. The blue dotted lines are thickness lines 540 and below. The 540 thickness is the first line south of KC and this is the critical line separating rain and snow. The low pressure area over the southwest part of the nation is developing in response to a slowly developing winter storm. This would then slowly move across around the time the Chiefs play Denver. But, this is likely just fantasy! So, let's see what we are thinking next week.

Even before this potential winter storm in 9 days we are tracking two possible storm systems for early in the week. Everything is changing fast, but in the mean time a cold front is on its way for Thanksgiving.

Gary

Posted by at 4:56 PM | Comments (3)

Holiday Travel Forecast

Good morning! Hope all you bloggers are doing well!

I am a little tired today, as we just got a PUPPY yesterday... and I am sure many of you know how that can be! Her name is Mags... she is 8 weeks old... a yellow lab. Soooo cute, we love her so much already! She is my very first dog... so I am a little nervous, but Gary is so good with them... I have a great mentor! :) I will post some pictures soon!

On to the Thanksgiving travel forecast... things look pretty quiet around the Central US both today and tomorrow. But things are not looking so nice for the Eastern part of the country... where travel will be messy. Here is the latest NAM forecast for Thursday morning:

Click to enlarge

It's a major winter storm! Here is a look at some of the winter advisories/warnings as of this morning:

Click to enlarge

If you are traveling in that region... Check flights ahead of time!

The only thing we will have to worry about HERE is slightly gusty winds today. Our winds will be in out of the west-northwest... and that is actually going to bring in some WARMER air for the afternoon. How is warmer air possible, with a NORTHwest wind? Well the airmass that is TO our northwest has been warmed by a downslope flow off the Rocky Mountains. A downsloping flow produces adiabatic warming, which means air warms at a certain rate as it sinks! What rate is that, you ask... oh just the dry ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE! It is a complicated thing to explain... but any ADIABATIC process deals with the changing temperature of a parcel of air due to the air rising or sinking.

Anyway, highs today should be in the mid to upper 60s, believe it or not!! How's that for the day before Thanksgiving! A cold front will then move through, bringing cooler air for the Turkey Holiday.

Gobble gobble!
Jamie

Posted by at 10:55 AM | Comments (2)

Many Changes the Next 5-7 Days

The first change will be Wednesday into Thanksgiving. Highs will soar into the 60s Wednesday, before a strong cold front races through Wednesday night. So, Thanksgiving Day should be much colder with highs struggling to reach the low 40s. The cold airmass will leave quickly Friday with highs approaching 50.

While this is happening, storm systems will be diving into the southwest USA. By the end of the weekend one will likely have come through with another potentially onthe way. Right now it looks like the end of the holiday weekend could be cloudy & wet. Next week may finally look like November & December with cloudy skies, temperatures in the 30s & 40s & periods of rain.
We are way overdue for a stretch of weather like that. Is this fantasy, or will it really happen? We will know a lot more Wednesday.

Below is the upper level chart for next Monday at Noon. Notice, the big upper low in the southwest part of the country with another one heading in.

Click to Enlarge

Gary

Posted by at 4:56 PM | Comments (1)

Holiday Forecast & more!

The weather pattern is now, likely, cycling through the pattern that is set. A huge storm is developing across the northeastern U.S. and a second storm will develop by Friday over the northeast and Great Lakes.

Around Kansas City it should be dry at least through Saturday. So, how is it going to snow? There have been a few computer model runs that have shown snowstorms predicted about 10 to 15 days away. But, the pattern is going back to the lower amplitude fast moving flow. As this happens it will be very interesting to see if all of the cold air leaves the central United States.

Above, you can see the 228 hour GFS model. This shows the surface set up for 9 1/2 days from now. A snowstorm is on the map, but keep in mind that this is just fantasy at this moment. We will be tracking this changing pattern.

Gary

Posted by at 5:55 PM | Comments (2)

Totally 80s!

TODAY'S NUMBERS:
HIGH: 46
LOW: 39

Before we get to my forecasting thoughts... we're going to have a little FUN!!

Ok, as promised... this is the blog entry for 80s pictures of the NBC Action News Team!! We have some really good ones!

I'll go first. This first picture is from 1985-ish... when I was going through my "I want to be Madonna" phase:

Keith King took one look at this picture and started singing "Boarderline" haha! I REALLY loved that unicorn shirt... and believe it or not... that was the first day of school! I can't believe my parents actually let me out of the house looking like that!! :)

Next, is the classic big-hair picture... this one from 1989:

Why that was "IN"... I will never know. I remember my family used to make fun of the bangs... they were rock-solid, as I am sure many of yours were, too! ;)

Now on to some of the others... Here is Sports Anchor Michelle Loibner... also a fan of big hair:

And Anchor Keith King had some nice looking hair of his own! This first one is from his high school graduation:

And this next picture of Keith is from his college days... totally 80s!!

Doesn't he look like he belongs in some cheesy 80s movie?? haha! Sorry, Keith!

And last... here are some photos of Reporter, Lisa Benson. From the looks of it... she had some fun in the 1980s! It was a happy time for her:

This next one is from Lisa's junior high days:

OK... Cynthia CLAIMS she couldn't find an 80s picture of herself... I am still on a mission to find one! ;) And I would still like to see some of YOUR totally 80s pictures, if you have them! Send them to: krumheuer@nbcactionnews.com

Now, on to the forecast! We do not expect any STORMS to affect us this week... but it is a tricky TEMPERATURE forecast. The reason: we are in a fast northwest flow pattern. You can really see it on the 700 mb (10,000 ft) chart below:

Click to enlarge

What does this mean? Well, it means that every few days we will see a weak trough move through the area. That will cool us down a bit each time it happens. But BEFORE each one moves through... we will warm up! So up-and-down will be our temperature pattern this week... with one really warm day possible (Wednesday). We are shooting for 60 degrees!

Enjoy... hope you got a good laugh out of our pictures!
Jamie

Posted by at 4:41 PM | Comments (2)

A Storm Develops...

TODAY'S NUMBERS:
HIGH: 52
LOW: 39

Hello there!

Perhaps you noticed how we went from mostly sunny... to mostly cloudy as the day went on. This happened when a cold front moved through the region. On the backside of the front, the clouds spilled in... as did slightly cooler temperatures.

Now our attention turns to a developing upper level storm. It is developing RIGHT OVER US!!! You can see it on the 500mb chart below... this is looking up 18,000 feet above us:

Click to enlarge

Because the storm will stay near us all day Sunday, we will stick with mostly cloudy skies. A spotty light shower or sprinkle is not out of the question through Sunday morning, too. MAYBE even a few flakes mixed in... but that would be it!

This storm will become a MAJOR storm as it heads East through the week. Here is a look at Tuesday afternoon... travel will be messy in the Eastern part of the country:

Click to enlarge

Another storm is getting it's act together... this one in the tropics. It is TROPICAL STORM GAMMA... the 24th named storm of this record-breaking hurricane season! Here are the latest numbers:

MOTION: ERRATICALLY NORTHWARD.... MOVING SLOW.
WINDS: SUSTAINED AT 45 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
PRESSURE: 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

And here is the forecasted path of the storm:

Click to enlarge

Tomorrow... we have a special treat for you!! If you watched last weekend, you saw reporter Chris Hernandez's piece on the 80s. Well we got to talking... and we decided to post old pictures of all of us from the 80s! Right now, me, Keith King and Michelle Liobner are set to go.... we are still working on Cynthia! She CLAIMS she doesn't have any pictures from the 80s... I don't know if I believe her! ;)

And why don't you join us? If you have any really tell-tale 80s pics... send them our way! I want to see BIG hair, and BAD fashion trends! Send them to:
krumheuer@nbcactionnews.com

Have a great day!
Jamie

Posted by at 5:48 PM | Comments (2)

Brrrrr!

Yes, it is officially COLD outside! Here are some morning-low temperatures:

KCI: 18
DOWNTOWN: 20
OLATHE NEW CENTURY: 16
OLATHE JO CO EXEC: 18
LEES SUMMIT: 18
KIRKSVILLE: 11
SEDALIA: 17
CHILLICOTHE: 14
NWS PLEASANT HILL MO: 15

This is the coldest start since the beginning of March!

The reason temperatures were able to dip so low, is because a large area of high pressure is over us, and helped to keep the skies clear overnight:

Click to enlarge

And I will refer to our handy raditational cooling graphic to explain why clear skies mean cooler overnight lows:

Click to enlarge

Now the flow aloft is from the Northwest... as you can see on our 700mb chart below:

Click to enlarge

Notice, also, that there is a green area shaded in right over Kansas City. This is actually a higher amount of relative humidity... which is moving in thanks to a weak disturbance moving through the northwest flow. I do not think we will see any precipitation with this feature (as we are dry at the surface... dew points are in the teens!)... but we are seeing cloud cover. The clouds will hamper any big warm up today, and we'll see highs near 40 degrees.

The clouds help us tonight, though, see radiational cooling graphic above. We will have a nice "blanket" to help keep us warmer. So instead of the teens, we will be in the 20s tonight! :)

Now let's talk more about WINTER WEATHER AWARENESS. I have gotten a couple of emails and blog comments about TYPES of winter precipitation. One thing we look at to forecast what type of precip we will see, is a temperature profile of the atmosphere. Here is a look at the set up for each event:

Click to enlarge

In a RAIN event... most of the atmosphere is warm, so frozen precipitation melts and falls as rain.

In FREEZING RAIN event... frozen precipitation melts in a warm layer of air... and then re-freezes once it reaches below-freezing temperatures at the surface. This type of event can produce sheets of ice on roads, cars, trees, etc.

In a SLEET event, frozen precipitation melts in a shallow warm layer... and then refreezes in the air before hitting the ground.

In a SNOW event, there is no warm air in any layer of the atmosphere... and the frozen precipitation stays frozen all the way to the ground!

Jamie

Posted by at 11:09 AM | Comments (1)

Winter Weather Awarness!

Today is WINTER WEATHER AWARNESS DAY... and right on time, we got to see snow falling here in the Metro! That is OUR cue to get prepared for the change of seasons.

Let's go over some important topics!

WINTER DEFINITIONS
You need to understand what is happening in order to be prepared, right?? Here are some common winter definitions from the NWS:

WATCHES: A watch is issued whenever severe winter conditions are expected but not imminent. Watches are usually issued anywhere from 12 to 48 hours in advance of a winter storm.

WARNINGS: A warning is issued when severe winter weather conditions are expected... that could cause death, injury or significant property damage. Various warnings include:

Winter Storm Warning: issued when any of the following may occur:
* A mix of freezing precipitation which causes life-threatening conditions (e.g., several inches of snow with freezing rain)
* Heavy snow criteria and wind that also results in blowing snow
* Any other combination of winter weather warning criteria

Heavy Snow Warning: issued when 6 inches or more is expected in a 12-hour period, OR 8 inches or more in a 24 hour period.

Ice Storm Warning: Damaging accumulations of ice 1/4" or greater.

Blizzard Warning: Sustained wind gusts to 35 mph or higher... AND considerable snow and/or blowing snow reducing visibilities to a 1/4 mile or less. BOTH of these must occur for a period of 3 hours or longer.

Sleet Warning: Sleet accumulations of 1/2 inch or more are expected.

Wind Chill Warning: Wind chill indices are expected to reach -25 degrees or colder.

ADVISORIES: Advisories are used for winter precipitation events that cause significant inconveniences... but are not considered life-threatening IF caution is exercised. Some advisories include:

Winter Weather Advisory: A mix of freezing and/or frozed precipitation not expected to reach warning criteria... but that will lead to significant inconveniences.

Snow Advisory: New snow accumulation is sufficient to cause travel problems, but is less than 6 inches in 12 hours, or 8 inches in 24 hours. Depending on the time of the year, or time of day... a minimum snow amount of as little as 1 to 2 inches in less than 12 hours can warrant an Advisory.

Blowing Snow Advisory: Blowing snow which intermittently reduces visibility to less than 1/2 a mile... or producing drifting snow which closes roadways.

Snow and Blowing Snow Advisory: Snow and blowing snow expected in combination which meets criteria for both advisory types.

Sleet Advisory: Sleet accumulations of less than 1/2 an inch.

Freezing Rain Advisory: Freezing rain or freezing drizzle with accumulations less than 1/4 inch.

Wind Chill Advisory: Wind chill indices are expected to range between -15 to -24 degrees.

Now let's talk about some of the effects of winter weather on the body:
FROSTBITE: this is damage to the body tissue caused by extreme cold. A wind chill of -20 will cause frostbite in just 30 minutes! Frostbite causes a loss of feeling and a white or pale apperance in extremities... such as fingers, toes, ear lobes or the tip of the nose. If symptoms are detected... get medical help immediately! If you must wait for help, slowly rewarm affected areas. However, if the person is also showing signs of hypothermia, warm the body core before the extremities.

HYPOTHERMIA: this is a condition brought on when the body temperature drops below 95F. You can die from hypothermia! For those who survive... there are likely to be lasting kidney, liver and pancreas problems. Warning signs include uncontrollable shivering, memory loss, disorientation, incoherence, slurred speech, drowsiness, and apparent exhaustion. Take the person's temperature. If it is below 95F, seek medical care immediately!

In the coming days... we will talk more about winter precipitation TYPES and winter DRIVING.
Jamie

Posted by at 2:28 PM | Comments (1)

weather Pattern Theory part 6

Above, you can see the forecast 500 mb pattern (approximately 18,000 feet) across North America. It goes hand in hand with our winter forecast. Kansas City is in northwest flow aloft. A deep trough is located through the Great Lakes with a ridge aloft in the west. This will bring us dry weather. One thing we must watch are these storm systems, or disturbances in the flow, that move over the ridge and then ride southeast through the plains. As winter approaches these systems can bring us some interesting weather changes.

We had our first snowflakes today, but the snowflake contest did not end. We must have one inch as measured by one of the NBC Action Weather Team's Meteorologists. So, the contest lives on.

Now, concerning the weather pattern theory.......remember we are likely going through our first cycle and once this cycle is complete then we will have much more confidence in what the weather pattern really is. This is why I will be making an adjustment to the winter forecast in December.

Gary

Posted by at 7:57 PM

Snow already?

Good evening everyone,

Hopefully you have entered our snowflake contest. We are no longer taking entries and now it may snow on Tuesday. This storm is one that has yet to be defined and will be intensifying right over eastern Kansas as it becomes a major winter storm northeast of Kansas City in Iowa. Where the developing upper level storm tracks and how strong it is as it moves by will decide who will receive snow accumulations. Right now the track is likely across far northwestern Missouri, but I do see some potential for a further south track (see below one of our models, the GFS, upper level forecast for noon Tuesday). When the new data comes out tonight we will have the updated forecast on the 10 PM newscast.

Click to Enlarge

We are looking at the 18,000 ft level of the atmosphere. The x's are areas of maximum vorticity. A pretty strong one is right over Kansas City at noon Tuesday. Significant snow usually falls along and north of the main vorticity track. So, if the vort max is over us, then the most snow will fall north and west of KC.

After this storm moves by we see another strong cold front around Friday, then much warmer after this.

More later..... and I will update this entry around 5:40 PM.

Gary

Posted by at 4:42 PM | Comments (6)

Another Nice Fall Day!

Today's Numbers:
Afternoon High: 58
Morning Low: 48

Wow: Mostly sunny, nice and cool... a beautiful fall day! I hope you got to enjoy it, as things are about to change around here!

Here is the surface map this evening. Things are pretty quiet for us, with high pressure in control:

Click to enlarge

But things will change on Monday. First, the high will shift to our east. Remember that air flows CLOCKWISE around high pressure. That means, we will see a RETURN FLOW... or winds with a southerly component... on Monday:

Click to enlarge

BUT... with warmer air moving in... it looks like we might be in a low overcast throughout the day. That will help to keep high temperatures on the cool side. We could see highs in the low-50s Monday afternoon. AND we can't rule out a spotty shower during the day. Maybe a 20% chance... and it would be light.

HOWEVER... a better chance of showers moves in with a cold front on Monday night. This cold front is also going to bring us the coldest temperatures of the season!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

That is right... Tuesday will be quite BLUSTERY, with highs in the lower to mid 40s and biting northwest winds. Tuesday night, we'll get our first taste of the 20s... falling down into the LOWER 20s for lows! Brrrrr! For all of you that have been waiting for a taste of winter... this is it!! :)

Jamie

Posted by at 7:28 PM | Comments (1)

A Miss

Today's Numbers:
High: 77
Low: 58
We tied the record high for this date previously set in 1944

Thankfully, we missed out on some damaging thunderstorms this evening... but we actually really DO need the rain! Since September first we are over an inch below average rainfall. We DO still have a six-inch surplus for the YEAR... but we are going through a DRY PERIOD right NOW.

The severe weather has stayed north of KC today... mainly happening across Iowa. There have been lots of tornado warnings up there this afternoon/evening. Law enforcement and storm spotters even confirmed several touchdowns! Here is the storm report map for today:

Click to enlarge

Now we are seeing drier air filtering into the Metro. We have already noticed a 20-degree drop in dew points (a measure of moistusre) in just three hours.

The stronger winds will continue this evening... they have gusted as high as 40 mph at KCI! Sunday will still be breezy, although not as gusty as today. Also, the winds will be in out of the northwest... which will usher in cooler air. We'll see highs on Sunday in the upper 50s to right around 60 degrees. Looks like a pretty nice fall day!!

And FALL it is... man, those leaves are sure coming down with all the wind! :)

Happy Raking,
Jamie

Posted by at 6:08 PM

Winter Forecast

It is finally here and if you have been reading you know that our forecast is actually based on a weather pattern theory. A discovery that I believe we have made after following it for the past 15 years. Our forecast is based on this theory, which is:

The weather pattern sets up between October 10th and November 10th and then begins cycling. As soon as the first cycle is complete we really know the pattern and this will happen by around mid December. So, look for a revision of this forecast by then. We will have the entire forecast written out on our website by Monday as Raymond, one of our engineers, is off until then. In the mean time here are the graphics.

Posted by at 9:28 PM | Comments (9)

Weather Patter Theory Part 5

I just wrote a long entry. And, then I clicked on the wrong thing and it was erased. Have you ever done this before. I am very angry, but I will get over it. So, I will begin writing again.

The weather pattern for the next 6 to 10 months is likely now set. And, it doesn't look good. If you like stormy weather this is about as bad as it gets, but perhaps there is some hope. The hope lies in the fact that I believe that this is a unique pattern, in other words it has never happened before. There are some characteristics to this new pattern that could very well end up in an exciting set up for storm systems. I am not sure what those pattern set ups will look like. What we do know is there is one very predominant feature in the Gulf of Alaska/northern Pacific Ocean and across Alaska. This is a deep trough that continuously regenerates week after week. We are continuing to analyze the data. Our winter forecast will be on the 10 PM newscast here on NBC ACTION NEWS. So, we still have a lot of data to analyze.

Above, you are looking at the new GFS 240 hour (10 day) forecast. This clearly shows the redevelopment of the Gulf of Alaska low and the warm pattern across the United States. What you don't see is the storm that forms over California this week and then brings us our next chance of rain Sunday. More on this Tuesday.

Once again, there is hope, and I will be looking for every possibility of excitement. I am just very worried that we are about to have a boring winter. I hope I am wrong.

Gary

Posted by at 5:39 PM | Comments (13)

Brace Yourself...

Is it really November? With mid and upper 70s in the forecast the next few days... it might be a little hard to believe! As high pressure slips to our east, and a storm develops to our west... a stronger PRESSURE GRADIENT will form over Kansas and Missouri.

That means it's going to be a little windy!

The winds will be in out of the South-Southwest... as illustrated below:

Click to enlarge

Air flows counter-clockwise around Low pressure, and clockwise around High pressure... and we will be in between the two on Monday, increasing our winds!

We expect dry and warm conditions until Wednesday. Then a cold front will come through... dropping temperatures a bit. Right now, it looks like it will come through DRY... but we will keep an eye on it through the week!

Have a great week!
Jamie

Posted by at 9:57 PM | Comments (4)

Developing Storm

Today, a storm has been developing over Southwest Missouri. Here is a look at the surface observations. You can see a rotation in the wind fields, where the storm has been strengthening:

Click to enlarge

Here in Kansas City, north of the storm, a few passing showers or a brief thunderstorm is not out of the question this evening. However, in the warm, muggy air south and east of the storm... we have seen quite a bit of destabilization... the atmosphere has become prime for stronger storms. Therefore, a TORNADO WATCH has been issued EAST of Kansas City until 10pm. The only counties in our viewing area included in the watch are Saline and Pettis... and it looks like the strongest storms are already EAST of there, and moving away. So the severe weather threat tonight is low for us.

What's in store for Sunday? Well, a large surface high will be building in! High pressure is our "fair weather friend"... in that it typically brings pleasant weather conditions. Here is a look at Sunday's forecasted surface map:

Click to enlarge

The forecast is great for the Chief's game! A little cooler in the morning, but we'll see highs in the lower 60s and plenty of sunshine through the afternoon! :)

It is really good to be back after more than two weeks off for our wedding and honeymoon. I've had a lot of requests to post some honeymoon pictures... so I will do just that! We went to Ocho Rios, Jamaica... and stayed at Couples Sans Souci. It is an amazing property... one of the only resorts there that is actually built into cliffs. Here are some pictures:

This is the view from our balcony. We spent a lot of time out there, just taking it all in!

I made Ken take a lot of pictures of the building cumulus clouds in the afternoon. Don't they look so pretty?

This is looking back at the building we stayed in. Because the resort is built into cliffs, there are a lot of stairs to climb! :)

On Sunset Beach

Ouch! haha... yes, we are dorks...

This is Charlie... she is a sea turtle and is more than 100 years old! Charlie lives in the mineral spring grotto that bubbles up from beneath the resort. These mineral waters are said to have great health and rejuvinating benefits.

I truly think we picked the perfect honeymoon spot... we can't wait to go back for an anniversary someday! :)

Have a good night,
Jamie

Posted by at 6:40 PM | Comments (4)

A Near Miss...But Some Rain?

A storm is going to be forming in the Midwest on Saturday. It appears it will get its act together just east of Kansas City. We may get a few showers as it races by. However, Chicago may get 1" of rain. Below is the total rainfall forecast for the weekend.

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Posted by at 9:29 PM | Comments (2)

Warmer Novembers?

After starting the month of November with three days in a row in the 70s... we're getting a lot of viewer questions. Is it normal to be this warm? Eric writes:

So with us starting out this warm in November does this mean we will have a pretty warm winter? It seems to me from the last few years we have been getting a lot more days in the 60s and 70s in November. Is it just me or do you see the same trend?

I looked back to the past six years... and this is what I found:

2004:
We had only TWO days in the 70s... and SIX days in the 60s. None of these mild days came after the 18th of the month.

2003:
We had only TWO days in the 70s... none of which came after the 20th of the month. We had FOUR days in the 60s, the last falling on the last of the month!

2002:
This year, we had only ONE day in the 70s, that was on the 7th. The 60s saw SIX days, with the last being the 29th.

2001:
What a WARM November! The first seven days straight were in the 70s, with a total of TEN 70 degree days for the month... the last falling on the 17th. We even had TEN days in the 60s, the last being the 23rd.

2000:
In contrast, this year was a COLD November! We had only ONE day in the 70s... and that was the first of the month! Just THREE days made it into the 60s. And we had a stretch from the 7th through the 13th of highs in the 30s! Brrrrr!

1999:
Another warm month... this year, November saw TEN days in the 70s, two of them being almost 80... at 78 degrees. EIGHT days made it into the 60s, the last falling on the 21st.

Sooooo.... just looking at that data, you can see that 60s and 70s are really common in November. Of course, some years are warmer than others... and some are colder.

Now, will the mild trend continue THIS November?? We are analyzing the data each day to make our winter weather forecast. We will give this forecast NEXT THURSDAY AT 10PM. Tune in!

Hope that helps you,
Jamie

Posted by at 8:11 AM | Comments (2)

No record today

Today's high was 74 degrees and it is not our shining moment of forecasting. Aloft it was almost as warm at the surface. At 850 mb today, around 5,000 feet up, it was close to 70 degrees but that didn't translate to the warming at the surface. There was no superadiabatic heating of the lowest level at the ground. This didn't allow the temperatures to rise to 80 or higher despite the sunshine today. There are other reasons for this as well, but I won't go into them right now.

The weather pattern continues to evolve for the winter and we are going to be ready for our winter forecast one week from tonight on the 10 PM newscast. I still don't like what I see. It could be a very long and boring winter of weather. But, let's hold out some hope. The jet stream will continue strengthening through January. And, even though I believe that pattern is setting up now for the next few months it will act differently as more energy is introduced into the pattern. And, again after February as the jet stream begins weakening. So, the same pattern can produce a wide range of specific results. There is hope.

Have a great day. More on Friday. Oh, next Thursday is also Windy's 16th birthday. This is a great milestone in her great life. We will celebrate on the 5 PM news with a brief look at Windy through the years.

Gary Lezak

Posted by at 5:44 PM | Comments (3)

Record warmth

Above you can see the broad ridge aloft over the United States. This is the forecast for Wednesday at noon. We will be making a serious run at Thursday's record high of 82. I think we will break it.

Then, the jet stream strengthens across the northern half of the country making the forecast after Friday very difficult.

Gary

Posted by at 8:19 PM | Comments (7)