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Snow already?
Good evening everyone,
Hopefully you have entered our snowflake contest. We are no longer taking entries and now it may snow on Tuesday. This storm is one that has yet to be defined and will be intensifying right over eastern Kansas as it becomes a major winter storm northeast of Kansas City in Iowa. Where the developing upper level storm tracks and how strong it is as it moves by will decide who will receive snow accumulations. Right now the track is likely across far northwestern Missouri, but I do see some potential for a further south track (see below one of our models, the GFS, upper level forecast for noon Tuesday). When the new data comes out tonight we will have the updated forecast on the 10 PM newscast.
Click to Enlarge
We are looking at the 18,000 ft level of the atmosphere. The x's are areas of maximum vorticity. A pretty strong one is right over Kansas City at noon Tuesday. Significant snow usually falls along and north of the main vorticity track. So, if the vort max is over us, then the most snow will fall north and west of KC.
After this storm moves by we see another strong cold front around Friday, then much warmer after this.
More later..... and I will update this entry around 5:40 PM.
Gary
Posted by at November 14, 2005 4:42 PM
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Gary,
What happened to the Snow advisory and wind advisory that was posted by the National Weather Service today? Are you going to cover these things, or did you just forget to mention this to us viewers?
Looks like a good chance of some snow!
Chris,
I rarely mention advisory's that I don't believe in. Most of the time I will be in agreement, but a few flakes of snow doesn't make an advisory. And, the wind won't increase until sometime during the afternoon. So, tomorrow is the more appropriate time to issue the advisory on the wind.
Gary
Posted by: Chris Mayer at November 14, 2005 7:27 PM
Hey Gary does it still look like the storm could take a more southern track. Im hoping so I would love for it to snow down here in Appleton tomorrow, any chance? And what does it look like the weather would be in Kansas City tomorrow morning my mom has to go there tomorrow
Posted by: daniel from appleton at November 14, 2005 9:22 PM
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I enjoy watching your weather forecasts both Jamie and Gary. I look forward to seeing more forecasts.
MICHAEL:
Thanks so much for watching, and for the nice comments! We are very happy you stopped by to blog with us! :)
Jamie
Posted by: Michael at November 14, 2005 9:48 PM
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Just thought I'd say that it is 9:30 A.M. and we have snow in Lawrence-it is really trying to change over to all snow and at times it does!!! Not expecting much of course (though the 12Z NAM is kind of interesting)but at least I got to see some white stuff flying around!!! After the past 3 months of warm weather, I'll take anything I can get!!! Hopefully this won't be the only flakes I see this winter!!
BILL:
I was actually out running some errands yesterday when the switch-over occured. It was so cool to see the flakes a-fallin'... and to see people's excitement! I was in Best Buy, and all the employees were running to the front of the store to get a look! A lot of them were cheering for our first snowflakes!
Jamie
Posted by: Bill Gollier at November 15, 2005 9:42 AM
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Gary and crew,
Thank you for being the only news channel that didn't over-react to a few snowflakes. That is why I am a faithful viewer! Keep up the good work!
Christi,
Thank you for noticing. We work hard to get every storm forecasted correctly and we take pride in it when we do well.
Gary and the NBC Action Weather Team
Posted by: Christi at November 15, 2005 10:55 AM
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Gary,
We are planning on traveling over Thanksgiving holiday, could you please give me a long range forcast for that week.
Thank you.
Phyllis
Phyllis,
We are waiting until Wednesday for our Thanksgiving week forecast.
It is coming tomorrow.
Gary
Posted by: Phyllis Hollenbeck at November 15, 2005 11:46 AM
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