I have noted Todays weather conditions in my new record book. I do not like the way the Jet is running. I dont see a change in the Westerly or Pacific flow. This flow in the late fall and into the early winter trends to be a warmer one. Im looking at possibly mid 60's in December and again into Febuary.This also has my concern for Severe Thunderstroms and maybe a few Tornadoes from columbia Missouri up to Southern Illonois, Kentucky , Tennesse and Northern Mississippi. I think this because of the Diving Jet stream just to our east. I think that the Ingrediants for Severe Storm systems will all come to gather east of This diving Jet just ahead of developing drylines. Because of the nature of flows of lows the area I decribed will be a breeding ground for rough weather. Im worried about Tornado outbreaks from Columbia over to St. Louis in Febuary. Temps might sore into the low 70's. I see several Lake effect snows over the Great lakes area. Maybe 2 or 3 Noreasters over the northeast. But for us it could be on the just above Freezing with wild swings into the 60's for 2 to 3 days at a time. I still am not ruling out a couple of Freezing rain events with thunder maybe a lot of sleet or small hail with it. Oh well IM just a novice but I just can not rule out any of these events. Hey as far this winter is going to go----Strap on those Seat Belts its going to be a wild ride.

Steve Newport
DeSoto Kansas

Ugh.
I had a feeling... when you step outside on November 7th and it feels like mid-May, you start to wonder.

Well, my fingers are still crossed.

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Gary,

I agree with your statements on the current weather pattern with the trough staying in Alaska. I believe that the CPC said that the re-loading of the trough in the Gulf of Alaska was do to a consistent blocking high pressure over Siberia. Also, could this be one of the latest freezes on record because of the current weather pattern we are in? Devin Kellerman

Devin,

We may have our first freeze tonight, and certainly a harder one next week. The winter forecast is tomorrow night.

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Gary this is one time I hope you are wrong. I felt like the spring brought no exciting weather for us and now the winter....that stinks!!! Hope you are wrong. We need some serious cold weather for a long period of time to kill these bugs in our yard, the bugs will be terrible next year if we do not get some really cold weather.
Your Faithful Watcher,
Monica Sabine\

Monica,

There is a chance this weather pattern will produce a long cold spell, but unfortunately it should be warmer more often.

Gary

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I hope your producers are going to give you extra time Thursday night to cover all of this! If not, I know you'll post the details here. Hope you can cover the part about this pattern not having happened before. That's got to be an interesting angle in it's own right. Have fun putting it all together; looking forward to it! - Mike

MIKE:
I have been working with Gary and our Executive Producer on the weather special all day today. We are getting a good chunk of time to explain things! It's not just this pattern that hasn't happened before... each YEAR we see a new pattern. Gary will explain this tonight using maps, graphics, and video.
Tune in at 10pm!
Jamie

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Gary, I believe in weather patterns much like you do, but I go with trends based on the last 60 days and compare that trend to the 30 + years of weather graphs I've kept. My trends show us to be closest to, 1975, 1988, 1989 and 1990. I'm leaning closest to 1989 as we enter November.
I've been doing long rane weather forecasts on my own for 20 something years and have accidentally found myself fairly accurate using trends. You can check out current long range forecast through Dec. 20, here:
http://garybrenner.com/page2.htm
It shows a major snow event around the 26th to the 28th of this month- up to 7"....
Again, around the 17th of December which a arctic front will hit for 2 days with some snow.

Oh well, Gary, at least we had a good June and August, still, so far for November, I have had 0.00 precip and an average lo of 51 and an average hi of 71. I note we may get down to normal temps next week. Hope the system on late Sat gives us some good storms - one thing at a time.

Last year had several storms, but not a whole lot really - ice etc... and a good rain-storm, so if we can do that good, I'd better consider myself fortunate.

Since 2000's December-January, have we really had a truly cold, active winter? - I can't recall. I do know that if you look at the planting zones, we are in a warmer spot within the general zone - what's that about?

Later,
StormDog

just currious.. looking at the models this morning show a sign of a fairly major storm system for us in 14-16days.. of course, i know better than to do count on the models that far out, but i'm wonder at what point do you start to take stock in the models, or do you wait tell they show some level realiblity? and do you think there's any chance of any major storms (with snow if we are lucky) in the foreseeable future?

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How is it we missed out on precipitation this time? We had low level moisture as evidenced by the increased dew points and noticible humidity, a strong southerly flow, and a front moving in that should have acted as a lifting mechanism. I'm a little surprised we didn't see at least some rain, if not a passing thunderstorm. Also, I completely agree with you. I'm hoping for an exciting winter pattern--sans the ice storms--but am worried with the stagnant pattern we've seen here in west central Missouri since August presenting us with warmer than normal temps and drier than normal conditions that we are in for a long, warm, dry winter.

MIKE:
With this set-up, we were really lacking DEEP moisture (ie, several layers into the atmosphere). The moisture apparant at the surface was pretty shallow. This is why we didn't see any rain with the frontal passage!
We are airing the Winter Forecast tonight at 10pm, be sure to catch it!
Jamie

Its like baking a cake. Some of the inngrediants needed to lets say bake a storm were not there. As a Tornado Hunter I have learned to ride about 50 miles east of the dryline. The Jet stream also was not quite right. The Jet has been riding up and around us. Also a strong Low brewing and stewing up over the the great lakes region pulling all the Dynamics need to produce Tornadoes and Severe thunderstorms into the Great lakes, Ohio valley and Upper mississippi and Tennesse valleys and away from us. That Cold front that passed over us was a very weak one. It looks like this pattern will happen many times this winter causing what I think will produce several lake effect snowstorms. Your idea of Ice Storms, well yes I think a couple could be possible. I think this winter will produce more Sleet and maybe some hail with thunder then snow. No snow at all ? No NO, there will be some, but it should not hang around long. Now Saturday or Sunday look more like some light rain. And would somebody please explain to me why the Indiana County EOC did not order the Police and Fire departments to run Sirens and loud speakers during that early morning Tornado ? That is supposed to be Standard Emergency Management.

Steve Newport
DeSoto Kansas

I'm just a Latin teacher who loves weather so I know very little. However, with the PNA forecasted to be around minus 1, I would think that gives us a chance at a stormier pattern the next couple of weeks. While I don't by anything the gfs says beyond 5 days, it has been hinting for 3-4 runs of some pretty cold air by Thankgsgiving. Also, the 240 EURO seems to move the Alaskan trough east. Gary, I love your enthusasim for weather and listen to you every morning on 980-I hope the ideas of exciting come out but since we have really only had 1 good winter since 1992-1993 I have to ride the warm and boring horse!!! Love this blog!! Good luck with the forecast!!!

Well, I had sent a blog previously, but it wasn't posted - wonder why - the weather of late has been bland, and from my four years plus at KC, it seems to me that we don't generally get big snows - 7 inches is a lot at one time for us. And...often there are long dry spells during the winter season - the Gulf moisture just doesn't get up this far north, at least not that often - perhaps 2 times a season or so. So having another bland winter really doesn't surprise me. If it turns out not to be the case, so be it - I don't think any human really is capable of foreseeing what Mother Nature will ACTUALLY do. (Don't bother posting - just sharing my thoughts.)

Later,
Stormdog

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Talk about a 'boring horse'...just try Arizona. We had high clouds today, but all the action is going on in the northern states. I hope we can get at least a week of freeze too, as the bugs are getting out of control. I don't wish anyone bad luck, but gosh, we deserve a winter now and then. 80's down to mid 60's just doesn't do it. I want to wear a jacket rather than a sweater, now and then. 82* today, and Thanksgiving is coming!!

LIZ:
Wow... writing all the way from AZ! Thanks for finding us!
Jamie