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Weather Pattern Theory Late November & toranadoes
We issued our winter forecast on November 10th. At that time I explained that this was our initial forecast and that we would know a lot more about what the weather pattern really is doing by sometime in December. I still need another week or two to get a stronger hold on this pattern, but one thing is certain. A pattern has set up and it is cycling. I don't think we have gone through the first cycle yet, so this is what I am waiting for. I am coming to one conclusion, however. The weather pattern is more energetic and has more potential for winter storm systems that I initially thought. So, let's see what we are thinking as we go into the next 10 days and I will issue an update to the winter forecast before December 20th, perhaps next week.
On another note, the tornadoes that occurred Sunday evening happened with temperatures at the surface near 60 degrees. The atmosphere was primed for tornadoes, with the one lacking ingredient being the surface heating. It obviously overcame that problem with some severe thunderstorms producing hail, damaging wind, and tornadoes.
Gary
Posted by at November 28, 2005 9:06 AM
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Interesting winter forecast Gary. When will we ever get back to the cold winters in Kansas of 25-30 plus years ago? Wish we still could get you back on Topeka's cox cable. They took you all off. Really miss your forecasts. They were pretty acurate. Maybe you all can talk Topeka's cox into getting you back on our channels.
Posted by: micael huffman at November 28, 2005 12:08 PM
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Hey Gary was just wondering if there will be any snow accumulations anywhere and if Appleton city will see any snow?
Daniel,
Not much more than a few snow showers out of this storm.
Gary
Posted by: daniel at November 28, 2005 3:03 PM
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Gary:
What a crazy past 24 hours-you have to be exhausted!!!! My ground is white in Lawrence-I don't mean the is grass covered or anything, but you can def. tell it snowed here today-even the salt trucks were running tonight!!! I enjoyed reading your past little discussion-this looks to be a pretty cold next 5-7 days as compared to average-if this could happen again in 2-3 weeks (I really do like your theory of patterns) we could really have some fun-and who knows maybe something crazy will happen and something will pop in the next few days. Once again, great job as always!!
BILL:
Thank you very much for your positive comments. It is so nice to hear such things from our viewers. We have been very busy here, and now we have another storm to track tonigh!
Gary
Posted by: Bill Gollier at November 28, 2005 9:37 PM
Gary, as always your forecasts are reliable, and accurate! Look forward to your new updated winter forecast! How is Windy doing?
Diane
DIANE:
Thanks for the comments. Windy is doing good, she is 16 years and one month old this month.
Posted by: Diane Kelly at November 29, 2005 10:29 AM
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I missed your forecast tonight so I didnt hear the snow prediction for Sunday! Is there any chance of a decent snow (2'' or more) I hope so lol!!!!
KINLEY:
There is a storm approaching us this weekend. The track is to the south of KC, and the latest data shows a very SLIM chance of us getting any accumulating snow. It is still a few days away... so we will see what it looks like on Friday!
Jamie
Posted by: kinley at November 29, 2005 11:06 PM
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Hi Gary:
Just looked at the GFS through 384 hours, and one thing looks persistent, as it has much of the latter part of November - a cyclone over the Great Lakes holding its own, putting KC in NW flow - this seems a persistent pattern, and at least for this cycle, means, dry and possibly quite chilly at times. Like I had mentioned earlier, I think the way we 'might' see anything is by a strong vort-max dropping further west in this flow, spinning up in Colorado, and perhaps dragging enough moisture northward to really do something. I think your original 'dry' forecast for winter will generally hold, save for the few, and I mean few, possible exceptions.
Later,
Dog
Posted by: Dog at November 30, 2005 8:18 PM
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Gary,
My grandma tells me that you want the "ritual" that is sure to mke it snow the nxt day. I'm guessing that a lot of kids have tried to find one, but after awhile now, I think I have the actual way. You must do these things in order an hour before you go to bed.
First- you must put on a pair of red shoes.
Second- you must flush a handful of small ice cubes down the toilet.
Third- you must put on your pajamas inside-out.
And finally you must take a match or lighter, and take it outside, and let the flame die off in the cold wind. Only do this if it is below 40 degrees outside.
That is the so called "ritual" that has worked for me and some of my friends most of the times we do it. I bet a lot of kids in Kansas would like to know how to do this, so if you ever think it might snow again, then you can tell them that this is the way to do it. Thanks for listening, and merry Christmas from Staford Virginia.
-Christopher Ballesteros
CHRISTOPHER:
You must have performed this ritual last night. The area school kids thank you! :)
Jamie
Posted by: Christopher Ballesteros at December 4, 2005 9:47 PM
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