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Your winter forecast seems very similiar to
the National Weather Service Climate prediction center's forecast, which has been out for weeks. Is this a new theory or just media hype?

I hope your forecast is accurate.

Joel,

Our winter forecast is actually based on my theory. The past few winter season's my forecast has been almost opposite of the NWS forecast, and much more accurate. Perhaps this year it is such a strong feature that it is almost the same. When the NWS forecast came out the pattern hadn't even set up. So, either they are very lucky this year or their system just happened to come up with a similar forecast.

Anyway, to answer your question......this is not media hype. And, I hope that I see some potential for differences. This is why I am serious about making adjustments as the first cycle is complete.

Gary Lezak

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Mr. Lezak:
I will start by intoducing myself. I am a Latin/History teacher in KC who uses weather as a deversion both in class (I put up models and satelite pictures on the LCD!!!)and at home. I am on several weather forums-that being said, I know very little about the real weather-it is just a hobby. I love your ideas about the pattern-it makes very good sense and for this area of the North America really is spot on. You can't really argue with the "weather" you see out your window and we have seen this pattern for the past 5 months-even in August we had 2-3 weeks of stagnant weather followed by a week of active weather-same has been for this Fall-2 episodes in September and one big one in Mid October where Lawrence (where I live) had our first significant freeze. Now, we are embarking on about 10 days of active weather again and if the models are correct, this will be followed by 2-3 weeks of stgnant weather again(0z Euro this morning shows the ridge comming back over the central US) Pattern is there. My concern this year is for ice-this pattern to me really sets up for that-as arctic air filters down and then takes off east, we could be just far enough North to get shallow pools of cold air that would lead to ice storms-I mean the cold air in 2002 was only 500 feet!! I also love the fact that you have mentioned we could be in for 1-2 weeks of exciting weather and if we get a real cold shot (i.e. like next week which would be much colder in Decemebr and Jan.) we could have some fun. Besides, on average, we have winter weather in 1-2 week stretches followed by 2-3 weeks of boring weather-rare is the winter that we have a month or more at a time. Sorry so long, but your forecast is very good in my humble opinion. By the way, NWS updated thier forecast 2 weeks ago and put us in equal chances for both temps. and precip. for what ever it is worth. Great job and I really like this weather blog!!!!

Bill,

Thank you for the compliments. I did see the NWS forecast that was updated as they shifted the warmer than average forecast westward. But, they do not utilize my theory. Anyway, there is hope. We should know a lot more about how this pattern really is acting soon.

Gary

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Gary, Team:
I'm confused. On the link to the Winter Weather Forecast, there is copy that says we're in for 29" of snow, yet the graphic, indicates 11", also note the temperature copy:
"Kansas City is in the storm track this year. Storm systems will be strengthening as they approach the plains. This means storm systems will be stronger, wetter but just as hard to forecast. Expect near or slightly below average temperatures. Precipitation will likely be much above average. One or two major Arctic outbreaks are possible, but the the winter will be characterized by a lot of cloudy wet periods. Snowfall forecast: 29� (Average over the past 10 years is 17�)."

Huh? I'm thinking this is a mistake. Certainly can wait until Monday when, as you indicated, the engineer is back to post details to the blog.

Thanks! - mike

Mike,

It should be updated Sunday.

Gary

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I'm anxious to see your written version.

Gary,

It will be on the website Sunday evening. But, I will be writing a more extensive version that I could email to you. Email me and I will do this next week.

Gary

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Gary-

I may have missed this in past postings... How do you know when the first cycle is complete?

Adam

Adam,

This is a very good question and a hard one to answer. Last year in January we noticed one day that a storm in mid January resembled one in early November and then we noticed that every day from then on kept repeating what happened in November. It was frustrating waiting until mid January, and I have noticed that in most years the cycle completes a lot earlier than this. So, we must wait and see.

Gary

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Gary for tonight's forecast (esp. 10pm) would you please show us with futurecast when you expect the rain to hit the relevant Big 12 towns (i.e., Columbia)? The game there starts at 1pm tomorrow. Thanks.

We enjoyed seeing your winter forecast last night. Looks like the skiing may be better in the Sierra Nevadas than the Rockies this year!

Jeff,

I will work on this graphic in a few minutes.

Gary

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I hope ypu update your forecast in the future so that it will call for more snow. I love snow and your first pediction is a litte less than I was wanting for the year.
Do you ever update your winter forecast???

I'LL BE WATCHING!

Matt,

There is still hope, but I am very concerned. I still see no evidence of any winter storm set ups. But, the weather pattern has just started its cycle and I will be making a revision to the forecast once the cycle is complete.

Gary

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Gary:

Looks to me like your idea of "pattern" is really comming to futrition. The EURO shows a massive ridge in the West (PNA goes greater than plus 2) with us on the edge-very similar to what we have seen for almost a year now!!! We will have dry boring weather with a couple of cold shots but with Canada warming up, they won't be much. Pattern should recycle with a trough in the west in a couple of weeks. Excellent job with this-I know it hasn't verified yet, but why should it change??? Our winter weather should come in 2-3 day increments just like this week. Hopefully in one of those times a 4 corners low will develop. Again, excellent job-I think you have realy hit it. To me, this seems errily similar to last year. Now that I read this, this sounds kind of haughty-my idea was to say that I think your forecast and theory are both excellent and the models are showing that. (the GFS will prob. come around) Great job!!!!

Bill,

Great observation! It is fascinating, and there is potential to have some winter weather. More on this potential soon, but most of the time it should be quite bland.

Gary

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I love that you give the winter forecast before any one else does. keep up the great work.
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Brittani,

7 Days away!

Gary