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Good Ring-in-2006 Weather!

An early entry today... as I know I am going to be busy later on. It is a very exciting day here in the forecast center... as Meteorologist Jeff Penner is getting married!!!! We are so very happy for him, and wish Jeff and his bride, Edi, much happiness!! :) I am going to the wedding this evening... and I will try to snap a nice picture to post either later tonight or Sunday.

Now... on to the forecast!

We will be experiencing mild weather as we ring in the new year! Here is the break down:

8 PM: 46 degrees, partly cloudy
MIDNIGHT: 42 degrees, partly cloudy
3 AM: 39 degrees, partly cloudy

Not too bad at all... temperatures will be above average! Then for your New Year's Day holiday... we are tracking another storm! Here it is on the NAM:

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Does that look familiar to you? It seems like we've seen one of two similar looking maps lately! :) The storm coming SO close to KC... and lacking any significant moisture. The GFS has this storm bringing us light wrap-around rain on Monday morning:

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But, again, it looks VERY light. Both Sunday and Monday look pretty windy, too... with highs in the mid to upper 50s Sunday (depending on cloud cover)... and cooler with highs in the 40s for Monday.

What are all of you doing for NYE? Celebrating at home, or going out for a night on the town? Whatever you do... Have a WONDERFUL time!! Be safe!
Jamie

Posted by at 1:42 PM | Comments (3)

TGIF!

TODAY'S NUMBERS:
HIGH: 49
LOW: 38

A cold front came through Kansas City this morning... and it didn't bring us much in the way of rainfall, as expected. But look what has happened as the storm has moved away from us:

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Wow... it really picked up some moisture, huh? :) Too bad we missed out...

What a tough week for forecasting temperatures. It has been a rough ride... mainly dependant on cloud cover. This morning... we started the day in the storms "dry slot"... and we got to see a little sunshine. But then the clouds rolled in this afternoon... we call these clouds "wrap around" because they come in on the back side of the storm system. This evening, those clouds are clearing from the west. We should see more sunshine on Saturday... and warming temperatures through the holiday weekend! Highs could be in the upper 50s on Sunday... again... depending on cloud cover!!

Do you believe there is another tropical storm out there? Our record-breaking year continues... to the very end!! Here is a look at Tropical Storm Zeta:

Click to animate

TGIF... for some. I will be back at work tomorrow! Why don't you join me?! ;)
Have a good one,
Jamie

Posted by at 5:50 PM

Clouds Continue....

TODAY'S NUMBERS:
HIGH: 41
LOW: 35

Today was a very interesting day weather-wise. We got the morning fog that we expected under clear skies... with light winds. What we didn't expect was for that fog to hang around through most of the day!! It wasn't until late this afternoon that we saw enough mixing in the atmosphere to scour those clouds out. And just as that was happening... higher cloud cover was moving in from the West... ahead of our next storm. Well... it's not really OUR storm... it is NORTH of us. But it will drag a cold front through on Friday. Here it is... looking pretty impressive this evening:

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It is turning into quite the winter storm for the Dakotas, Minnesota, and Wisconsin! There are Winter Storm Warnings and Snow Advisories in effect in those states. Four to eight inches of snow will fall between now and Friday evening... while we get virtually NOTHING from this storm! There have been a few radar returns in Eastern Kansas and Northwest Missouri this evening... but I am not convinced that any of that is reaching the ground. If anything, it would only be a few sprinkles.

On the backside of the storm... we will be left with more cloud-cover. So Friday looks mostly cloudy and cool, with highs in the 40s. Then we should warm into the 50s over the weekend!

It is very interesting to note... the past TWO years, we had highs in the 60s on New Year's Day! In both 2004 and 2005, we hit 62 degrees on January first... isn't that amazing?? 2006 is shaping up to come in on a mild note, too... with highs in the lower 50s expected.

Have a good last Thursday night of the year!! :)
Jamie

Posted by at 8:41 PM | Comments (1)

Colder!

TODAY'S NUMBERS:
HIGH: 48
LOW: 36

I bet you noticed the much cooler air in place today! We were about 10 degrees below our highs from Monday and Tuesday at KCI. But here's the thing... KCI got to see a little sunshine this afternoon... while many of you didn't!! So some of our Northeastern suburbs were stuck in the upper 30s all day!! I am sure that felt cold for you!

On tonight's satellite image, you can see the storm that moved through yesterday... now located over the Ohio Valley:

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That storm brought some light rain/drizzle to the area this morning... but that was it! We are in a fast-paced part of the weather pattern right now. And the storms are coming through KC pretty dry. The next storm will pass just to our north on Friday... again robbing us of any big rain chance. You can see it tonight... located over Idaho:

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The main energy of the storm will get SOME showers going... but not here! You can see the concentration of moisture NORTH of KC on tonight's NAM run:

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New Year's Eve still looks dry... and mild for this time of year! With highs in the 50s this weekend... and lows in the mid to upper 30s.

Well, if you haven't heard... we have some exciting news from the weather department! Starting Sunday, January 1st... our forecasts will appear daily in the Kansas City Star! AND we'll have a streaming video forecast on their website... www.kansascity.com We are VERY excited and proud to join into this new partnership!!

Have a great night! I'll be blogging with you again tomorrow!
Jamie :)

Posted by at 8:54 PM | Comments (1)

Two for Two

TODAY'S NUMBERS:
HIGH: 59
LOW: 37

Do you believe we made it up to 59 for the second day in a row? Wow, was it a nice afternoon! Today we took Mags up to the park and just let her run, run, run! :) She really likes the warm weather! (But she also LOVED prancing around in the snow!) It might be awhile before she gets to do that again!

We have a storm moving RIGHT over the viewing area this evening. You can see it on satellite... it is strengthening:

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This storm is moving into DRY air in place over the metro... so we still have mainly clear skies here. We will watch for increasing clouds overnight and the chance for LIGHT RAIN or DRIZZLE late tonight and into Wednesday morning. Temperatures will be COOLER on Wednesday, too... with highs in the lower 40s and WINDY conditions!

Then it's back UP into the 50s for Thursday!

Jamie

Posted by at 6:01 PM | Comments (1)

WOW!

TODAY'S NUMBERS:
HIGH: 59
LOW: 28

What a GREAT day!! I hope you got to be outside for at least a little while, to enjoy the wonderful winter warmth! The record high on this date is 63 degrees... we made it up to 59... so we were close! But lots of sunshine... and not too windy. We took little Mags to the dog park (her first time there) and she just LOVED it! :) She met a lot of new friends!

But all good things must come to an end. And maybe this isn't your favorite type of winter weather... I know a lot of you are anxiously awaiting our next snow! Well... you might have to wait a little while... as this next storm looks to be bringing light rain to the forecast area Tuesday night into Wednesday.

You can see our storm on the NAM's 500 mb chart (18,000 ft). It is coming out of Nevada and moving into Utah this evening:

Click to enlarge

That storm will pass JUST south of Kansas City tomorrow afternoon. Ahead of the storm... it will be another mild day, with highs in the mid 50s. The clouds will be increasing, though, so the warm-up will be fighting that during the afternoon hours. The storm passes by DRY... but on the backside of the storm... we will see a chance of showers. This will happen late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. It looks like light rain, and it will be COOLER Wednesday!

Have a great evening!!
Jamie

Posted by at 5:53 PM | Comments (2)

HAPPY HOLIDAYS!!

TODAY'S NUMBERS:
HIGH: 39
LOW: 32

Sorry for the late entry tonight... the holidays are upon us... and there was cheesecake to eat!! :) Better late than never, right?

We spent most of the day under low cloud cover today... that really kept temperatures down this afternoon. The sun did eventually come out in the Southwestern part of the viewing area, so the Kansas side saw the warmest afternoon highs. It was near 50 degrees in Iola, KS today!

Now the clouds are clearing out a little more... and the combination of clear skies, light winds, and high surface humidity is causing patchy dense fog to form. Some of the area is under a DENSE FOG ADVISORY... including Buchanan, Platte, Clay and Jackson counties in Missouri... and most of our Kansas counties. Click on the link below for the most up-to-date information on our advisories:

NWS PLEASANT HILL

We are still expecting a big warm up as we go into the new week. Highs will be in the upper 50s Monday, as you can see below:

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That's going to feel great!!
I am working for Gary this week... he is on vacation... so I will be blogging with you daily!
Hope you all had a wonderful holiday... whichever one you celebrate :)
Jamie

Posted by at 10:26 PM

A Warm Storm

The rain storm from Saturday is now moving rapidly to the southeast. Christmas Day will be nice day with mostly sunny skies & highs in the 40s. We will now turn our attention to the high plains where downslope winds will develop. These winds blow down in elevation (west to east), forcing the air to warm. These winds will create a warm airmass to our west on Sunday. This warm air will spread to us by Monday. Below our 4 pictures of the temperatures at 5000 feet. The orange & yellow colors are the warm air. See how they spread east with time. The upper left picture is from 6 PM Saturday. The lower right is for 6 AM Monday. See how the wall of warmth is on our doorstep. Monday will be around 60 degrees.

Happy Holidays!

Jeff Penner

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Posted by at 7:13 PM | Comments (1)

A Weekend Storm

TODAY'S NUMBERS:
HIGH: 52
LOW: 41

Another mild day for us... with highs in the lower 50s! The clouds raced in quickly this morning, though, and they will be with us for awhile. There is a storm developing in Nebraska this evening:

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That storm is spreading light rain into our area this evening. Not all of it is reaching the ground at this time, but don't be surprised to get a sprinkle or a light shower this evening and overnight. Check out LIVE TRIPLE ACTION DOPPLER to see where the rain is right now.

The chance of light rain will stick around for the start of Saturday... and temperatures will be chilly-- in the lower 40s. Then we'll fall into the upper 30s as we head through the afternoon. Then something interesting happens. Even though we will be above freezing at the surface... as the storm strengthens... the mid-levels of the atmosphere will start to cool. It looks like they could be cool enough to support snow. Below is the "Critical Thickness" chart:

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This image shows differet thicknesses in the atmosphere that can be used as clues when forecasting rain versus snow. Here is the map key:
PURPLE: 700-500mb 2560m Thickness Contour
GREEN: 850-500mb 4100m Thickness Contour
WHITE: 1000-500mb 5400m Thickness Contour
CYAN: 850-700mb 1540m Thickness Contour
RED: 1000-700mb 2840m Thickness Contour
YELLOW: 1000-850mb 1300m Thickness Contour
BLUE: 850mb 0 degree Isotherm

It looks like we could see some big, wet flakes mixing in at times... maybe accumulating on grassy surfaces. The eastern part of the viewing area will have the best shot... we'll see how it sets up tomorrow!

Have a great evening... happy last minute shopping to all you procrastinators! :) I am off tomorrow, and Jeff will be filling in. I will be back for the 10pm on Christmas (we do not have a 5 o'clock newscast on Sunday).

Jamie

Posted by at 4:43 PM | Comments (2)

www = warm winter weather

TODAY'S NUMBERS:
HIGH: 53
LOW: 31

On this first full day of winter... it sure didn't FEEL like winter, did it? I took my little puppy for a nice long walk in the park and she LOVED it! :)

Highs were well above average... into the lower and middle 50s. Downtown hit 55, not bad for the end of December! Yesterday we were thinking it could make it up to 60 today... and it COULD have... but some snow on the ground helped prevent that from happening. Here is what happened:

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The area oulined in blue on the visible satellite image above is actually snow on the ground. It kept temperatures from shooting up today... dispite our warm southwest flow. But that snowfall quickly melted away. You can see on the visible satellite image below... only a few hours later... that snow is gone:

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So as we go into Friday... we don't have to worry about SNOW affecting our temperatures... but CLOUDS. We again think we COULD make it to 60 Friday afternoon... depending on that cloud cover (clouds will be increasing ahead of a storm moving our way). Regardless, it will be another nice day with mild temperatures... so enjoy it! :)

The storm will bring us a brief chance of rain Friday night into Saturday. We may also see some rain or snow Saturday afternoon... but amounts will be light. And, yes, the chance of snow means temperatures will be colder. Not extremely cold... but there will definitely be a chill in the air both Christmas Eve and Christmas Day!

Jamie

Posted by at 4:27 PM | Comments (3)

Warm UP

TODAY'S NUMBERS:
HIGH: 35
LOW: 21

Temperatures are holding steady this eveing. We dropped down to 29 degrees around 6pm, but now KCI is back up to 31degrees... as South winds are picking up a bit.

We are still expecting the big warm up for Thursday and Friday, as the downsloping winds take over. (see Gary's blog below). We should also see plenty of sunshine, and our 850mb (5,000 feet up) temperatures are going to be very warm tomorrow:

Click to enlarge

We are expecting some of this air to mix down to the surface to help warm us up!

Things will change as we head into the weekend. We will cool off a bit for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. You can see how things will change by looking at this weekend's 850mb forecast below:

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See the cooler air moving over us? This isn't Arctic air... it is Pacific air. So it will feel cooler but not extremely cold for the holiday weekend.

Next week we are seeing an even bigger warm up possible. It will be very interesting to see how this plays out!!

Jamie

Posted by at 8:36 PM

Here comes the warm up.....

Last Friday we talked about it being 60 degrees by Thursday and here it comes. It may go above 60 degrees either Thursday or Friday or both days. What is happening? The jet stream is deamplifying and becoming more zonal (westerly). This is going to allow the flow to come across the Rocky Mountains and then across the plains. As we go into Thursday and Friday this downslope flow (see map below) will bring us a massive warming as the air decends it will compress and warm. This is why we predicted near 60 over a week in advance. Other forecasts won't pick up on this because the computer models have a hard time predicting massive warm ups and massive Arctic outbreaks. The models were saying near 40, but we knew the likelyhood of 60 or higher was quite strong. This same thing will likely happen again early next week. In between a cold front will cool things off. We must watch a possible developing storm for Christmas, but it looks like it will develop right overhead or east of us which should leave us dry.

I am expecting January to be quite wild.

Gary

Posted by at 8:25 PM | Comments (14)

Clear Means Cold

TODAY'S NUMBERS:
HIGH: 22
LOW: 17 (and falling)

Here is a map of the snowfall amounts, courtesy of the NWS:

Click to enlarge

After a pretty light snow event... and a cloudy, cold day today... we will actually get in on a little sunshine Monday! Skies are expected to clear early Monday morning... and if that happens temperatures will dip into the single digits! So after such a cold start, we will see highs only in the 20s.

And we will be going into the quiet part of the weather pattern... with no big storms affecting us for the next several days. Yawn. BUT at least we'll get a warm-up out of it! If you've noticed... the past few days our 7-day forecast has been sporting 60s later this week!! Here is the GFS showing the warm air building in:

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This is Thursday afternoon. Breezy southwest winds, and highs near 60 degrees. That will feel really good after these cold temps!

Last, I am curious to see how many people around here know what Buckeyes are (the candy). My parents are here visiting from Ohio, and they brought some for my co-workers here at the station... but a lot of them gave us blank stares when we asked, "would you like a buckeye?" I guess it is an Ohio thing... but they are SO GOOD!! What do you think??

Jamie

Posted by at 9:05 PM | Comments (4)

Calling All Snowfall Totals

No real update to Gary's forecast below... it looks to be on track!

This is just a shout out to all of you who feel like braving the cold to measure the snow in your yard!

If you could blog your totals to us, that would be great... or email them to weather@nbcactionnews.com

Thanks, and have a good evening!
Jamie

Posted by at 6:50 PM | Comments (3)

Snow is falling this morning

I actually saw the sun rise on the eastern horizon this morning while the snow was falling. A rare sight in Kansas City!

So, how much snow are we going to get out of this storm. The latest NAM and NGM are showing around 2 to 3 tenths liquid. The first 1/10th won't accumulate that much so I am thinking the accumulation part of this storm will be later today and tonight when we receive around .20" liquid. With a 12 to 1 ratio likely with the airmass we have in place, this should translate to a 2 to 3 inch snowfall. Some spots will likely get under 2 inches and a few spots could still approach 4 inches depending on who gets in a heavier band tonight. And in warm advection patterns the heaviest bands often get an additional 1 to 2 inches in this type of set up. The heaviest snow is likely to fall between midnight and 6 AM Sunday.

The latest trends however on Live Triple Action Doppler show some heavier bands already developing near the state line and I-70. Look below...

Above, you can see our snowfall forecast for this storm. A band of heavier snow will likely develop somewhere between Lawrence, KS and Richmond, MO. A 15 mile wide area could end up with an additional 1" to 2" or so. But, most locations around KC will likely see around 2" to 4". In the 3 to 6 inch area a few locations could see up to 8 or 9 inches if the storm really starts producing this afternoon as the warm advection zone sets up between Salina and Topeka.

Gary

Posted by at 9:19 AM | Comments (1)

New data will be out soon!

The afternoon data dropped the precipitation amounts a bit. But, this is still somewhat similar to last week when the evening before the storm I adjusted our forecast from 2 to 3 inches up to 7 or even more. Will the same trend happen tonight at 10 PM. It will be close enough to the storm that I will be taken the data very seriously. If it shows a weaker trend I will go with that, but if it shows a stronger trend I will go with that scenario. The NAM, NGM, ADONIS, and GFS models will be out by the time I am on at 10 PM tonight. Adonis will be out enough to show the latest output from this model during the show. Adonis did quite well with the last storm predicting 5 to 6 inches (we ended up with 7 to 12). Adonis is our in house computer model run by Weather Central.

So, stay tuned and we will have this forecast updated at 10 PM tonight. You can check the weather hotline over the weekend for updates. Our hotline number is 913-831-4141.

Gary Lezak

Posted by at 7:26 PM | Comments (3)

Tracking Snow

Good morning, everyone!

Hope your day is off to a good start! I am feeling a little under the weather today... I guess there is a little bug going around, and I just happened to catch it! Boo!

We're starting off mostly sunny, and I think we'll see more sunshine today than we saw yesterday. This morning, our low temperatures dipped to the middle-20s... and this afternoon, our highs will climb into the upper 30s.

But I know that's not what many of you care about! You want to know if it's going to SNOW, right?! :)

Well, as of right now... it looks like it will... with light accumulations around the Metro. The NAM has the highest snowfall amounts, which would be upwards of 3":

Click to enlarge

We are going with 1" to 3" at this point. Parts of Kansas may see even more, as you can see on the map above.

Gary will have an update this afternoon or evening!
Jamie

Posted by at 9:01 AM | Comments (4)

Snow in Forecast

We may see a few light snow showers or flurries across the viewing area today. We are on the backside of a storm system... and we'll get in on the wrap-around cloud cover and associated light precip. We are not expecting any accumulations today. Here is a look at the surface map... you can see the storm is spinning in a counter-clockwise direction over Minnesota:

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And you can really see the clouds coming in from the northwest, too:

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Highs today will be in the upper 30s... Friday we'll be in the mid 30s with a mix of sun and clouds. And interesting to look ahead to the weekend, as Gary blogged below, a chance of snow is in the forecast! It's looking more and more probable... here is this morning's NAM... it really puts us in the zone:

Click to enlarge

Jamie

Posted by at 9:06 AM | Comments (5)

Cold & maybe snow

Cold air is going to settle back into the region the next few days as Jamie stated in the last blog entry. Now, let's focus on the possibility of snow. A storm, somewhat similar to last week's major snowstorm, is showing up. It is, again, very unusual as the energy is dropping across the Canadian border and then south southwest into the Rockies. If this energy carves out enough of a trough (seen below on the 84 hour NAM valid Saturday 6 PM) then warmer air will be drawn north above the cold air mass in place over us. There are questions as to how much troughiness develops west of Kansas City. We will know more as the new data comes out this afternoon and tonight. Watch the 5, 6, and 10 PM newscasts tonight and I will talk about these trends.

Click map to enlarge

Above is the 500 mb flow (18,000 feet up) valid Saturday at 6 PM. Notice the trough (dip in the flow) centered through Colorado. If this gets any deeper we will have a high likelyhood of snow over the weekend. Any weaker and it could be just very cold and dry.

Have a great day!

Gary

Posted by at 10:59 AM | Comments (6)

Cold Returns

A cold front passed through the Metro this morning... and it has shifted our winds out of the Northwest. It has become a bit breezy, as well... and with colder air rushing in... temperatures will be on the downswing over the next few days.

Here is a look at the satellite image, valid 8:30am:

Click to enlarge

That dark shading over the Eastern part of the Metro is actually cloud cover... and you can see we're already clearing in the West. This means we will get into a period of sunshine for the first part of the day. That will counter-act the colder air moving in... and we should still see highs in the mid-40s. But as more cloud cover works in later today, temps will likely begin to fall. Then, the colder air really settles in for several days... with highs in the 30s!

Stay warm!
Jamie

Posted by at 8:28 AM

Another Snowstorm?

It is raining this evening as wave aloft moves by. A cold front will move through Thursday morning. This storm is really going to be maturing over the northern plains and Great Lakes states where snow should be wide spread.

This storm will spin and weaken later this week. Then we have to watch a possible series of upper level systems that will try to carve out a trough just west of Kansas City. It has a similar look to our big snowstorm, but we will have to see if it really shows up during the next few days on the models. Cold air will be in place. Initially this is not as cold as last week, but a United States born Arctic airmass may develop just as a few days ago. Usually Arctic airmasses build over northern Canada and we have days to anticipate them. This is why we call it an Arctic blast, because it surges down and replaces a warmer airmass. But, last week the cold air built over the northern states and southern Canada as a surface high strengthened just north of Kansas City. This same thing could happen early next week, although the new data has a northern Canadian and North Pole Arctic airmass building. So, perhaps a true Arctic blast will occur by Monday. But, will we have snow?

Gary

Posted by at 7:53 PM | Comments (1)

Tricky Temperature Forecast

Today there is ONE fly in the ointment... cloud cover. Less cloud cover means highs could be in the upper 40s. More cloud cover, and we will be in the lower 40s. Right now, clouds are spreading from north-to-south across the Metro... you can see that from the satellite view below:

Click to enlarge

Even if the clouds hang around today, we are expecting dry weather. As we head through the day Tuesday, however, things will change. Right now, there is a pair of storms off the West Coast. One is moving into the Pacific Northwest... the other is off the coast of California:

Click to enlarge

Both of these systems will move into the Central US on Tuesday. In response, our winds will pick up out of the south... it will be breezy and mild... with increasing clouds through the day. A chance of showers is a pretty good bet Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Right now, it looks like we could even hear a rumble of thunder!

Colder air moves in for Wednesday... that could support a brief change-over to snow... but at this point we are not expecting any accumulations! Then the cold temps hang around through the end of the week!

Have a great day!
Jamie

Posted by at 8:41 AM | Comments (1)

Airmass Change

During the last 24 hours the Arctic airmass left as a Pacific airmass streamed in. This change occurred due to a broad area of west to northwest winds across the Plains. A series of storm systems (Clippers) are tracking southeast across the Midwest. On the west side of them we have west winds, blowing downslope from the high Plains (see surface map below from Saturday afternoon). This downslope causes the air to warm as it is forced to lower elevations. It now appears this airmass will dominate the middle of the country the next 5-7 days. So, watch for re-freezing at night and have plenty of window washer fluid.

Posted by at 3:38 PM | Comments (3)

New Record Low

We set a RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE this morning, as KCI dipped to -5 degrees! The previous record was -3, set back in 1919.

Clear skies, calm winds and lots of snow on the ground helped us drop so low today. As we go through the afternoon... a combination of southerly winds and plenty of sunshine will help us warm 10-15 degrees higher than we were yesterday! Expect highs in the mid 20s.

Going into the weekend, it gets interesting. We will see a weak cold front come through on Saturday. The NAM keeps it dry:

Click to enlarge

But we may see a few flurries. Notice behind the front, our winds will again shift in out of the northwest. This means Saturday is still a chilly day, with highs in the lower to mid 30s.

On Sunday, warm air starts to build to our west:

Click to enlarge

And we could feel the effects of that right here in the Metro... as our temperatures could climb to near 40 degrees! (depending on cloud cover). Meteorologist Jeff Penner will be in on Saturday to update the forecast! Gary and I will split Sunday... and I work for Brett on the morning show all next week. Gotta love holiday vacation time! :)

Stay warm,
Jamie

Posted by at 7:58 AM | Comments (6)

Snow Day!!

What a snowfall event! A foot of snow is not uncommon around the Metro today. Here are some snowfall totals we have received from viewers:

Lenexa: 13.5" TJ Johnson
Parkville: 13" Debbie Smith
Shawnee: 12.5" Anne Jackson
Platte Woods: 12.5" Doug Morgan
NBC Action News Studio: 12"
Kansas City, KS: 12" Pam Thomas
Fairway, MO: 12" Marilyn Flook
Weatherby Lake: 11.5" Roger and Julie Friedrich
Sugar Creek: 11" Gretchen Jones
Levenworth: 11" Pat & Jen
Liberty: 11" Joe Stockmann
Belton, Mo: 11.5 inches Gayle Ohde
Platte City: 10" Kristen
Kearney: 10" Mark Moor
South Blue Springs: 10" Doug Robe
Overland Park: 9.25" Sherry Rink
Beleton: 9" Betty
Payola: 9"
Lansing, KS: 8" The McKenzie’s
Raymore: anywhere from 8.5 - 11.5" Emily Jeter

It is offically a snow day! :) I bet many area kids are excited to be off school... and to have so much snow to play in! One thing to keep in mind as you are headed out to the sledding hill... it is going to be COLD today... so you will need to dress accrodingly! It might even be too cold for some... temps this morning are BELOW ZERO in some parts of the viewing area.

St. Joseph is at -8 as of this writing... and it is -4 in Lawrence! As we go through the afternoon... it looks like we'll only see teens for high temperatures. I have been doing live shots on and off here at the studio so I can confirm the frigid temps! I have three paris of socks on and I can't feel my toes!! So be careful if you spend time outside today!

Another thing to note... this is FLUFFY stuff... so it's not the best for snowmen/snowballs. It doesn't pack at all! BUT it makes great snow angels:

This is perhaps the cutest snow angel I have ever seen! :) That is Brandon's 1st snow angel... he is 4 months old His mom, Mandy sent this in... she says they made the fastest angel ever and ran back inside! :) Thanks for the photo, Mandy!

And because it's a fluffy snow... it will blow off your car when you start driving... and that can affect other motorists out on the road. So please be considerate and clean off your car (it should be easy since it's so fluffy!) You know, a few years ago... I got a ticket for not clearing off my car windows completely! It was $65, I think... trust me... you don't want it to happen to you!

I will continue to add/update our snowfall totals as we get new reports in. Enjoy the day... and if you can... send us your snowfall totals! Either click on the comment link below... or email us at weather@nbcactionnews.com. We'll take snowfall pictures, too! Send us some silly pictures of people playing in the snow! :)

As for today... expect sunshine and COLDER temperatures behind this system. We are starting off in the single digits... and will only make it to near 12 degrees for a HIGH this afternoon! Tonight, with clear skies and snowpack... we will dip below zero!!

Thanks, have fun... and stay warm!
Jamie

One last thing... thanks to THE DOUBLETREE for sending over the AWESOME cookies this morning! We all loved them!

Posted by at 6:53 AM | Comments (13)

Weather Pattern & will the snowflake contest end?

Good morning! I will be back to work today. I am working this morning for 106.5 WDAF and Newsradio 980 KMBZ. The new data comes out in a few minutes. I will add some maps and update our forecast after analyzing the data.

I think we are ready to update the winter forecast. This should be ready by the end of this week. So, what is this weather pattern that we are in? My theory has worked as usual, however, our specific forecast may have been a bit off. What I mean is, the weather pattern did set up between October 10th and November 10th, and I firmly believe we are going through the first cycle. It definitely has more cold air potential than I had anticipated. I have spent the past hour looking at the pattern from October 10th through today and I will have the updated forecast by Thursday night, perhaps earlier. There are phases of the cycle that seem capable of producing major storm systems. If we have cold air in place as these major storm systems develop then we could have a couple of significant snowstorms. This is actually part of the initial forecast as I thought we may have a January and/or a February snowstorm. But, I was concerned about the rest of the pattern. The dry part of the pattern has been a lot colder than expected. So, give us a day or two and we will make some changes. The bottom line is: We are going through the pattern that set up by November 10th. And, as usual, we know a lot more as we get into December.

New data is in. Above is the NAM forecast precipitation for Wednesday through Thursday. It predicts about 35 hundreths of an inch liquid. A 15 to 1 ratio would give us around 5 inches of snow. 15 to 1 means 15 inches of snow would melt down to 1 inch of rain. The typical ratio is 10 to 1, but with the cold and dry airmass in place it could be 12 to 1 to as much as 20 to 1 ratio. This may be a wet run of the NAM, but the NGM model has similar amounts and a somewhat potent storm system. So, confidence is high that we will get at least 2 inches with a chance of 3 or more. As of 9:15 AM I am going with a 2 to 3 inch snow event for the Kansas City area with some locations getting a bit more. Let's see what we are thinking by the 5 PM newscast. Be sure to watch tonight.

Gary

Posted by at 7:36 AM | Comments (11)

Snow for some...

TODAY'S NUMBERS:
HIGH: 29
LOW: 10

In last night's blog entry... I talked about a little wave that would move by this evening. That is happening right now! We can see it on LIVE TRIPLE ACTION DOPPLER:

Click to see the latest image

This will bring a brief period of snow to communities north of Kansas City. We may see a few flurries or light snow here in the Metro... but the real accumulations look closer to the Iowa/Missouri boarder. There, they could see an inch or so. Around St. Joseph... the amounts decrease to about a quarter of an inch or a dusting. A quick-moving light precip event!

Behind this wave, colder air is spilling south. Northwest winds are howling, too. Parts of Nebraska have seen wind gusts up to 45 mph today! Our winds will pick up overnight... you might hear that... but the windy period will be brief. What you'll really notice are the colder temperatures. Tomorrow morning, we'll start off near 10 degrees, and afternoon highs will struggle to get to 20!! Now that is cold!

We're still watching the Wednesday/Thursday storm. It acutally looked like it might snow here on last night's data... but today, it is looking less likely. We'll see.

Have a good night!
Jamie

Posted by at 5:46 PM | Comments (1)

Cold... (yawn!)

TODAY'S NUMBERS:
HIGH: 27
LOW: 12

This part of the weather pattern is getting old to me. I am tired of saying the same thing over and over again. IT'S COLD!! I guess I could mix it up a bit... it's frigid... it's freezing... it's an ice box out there!! Today's high hit 27 at KCI, and 28 downtown after starting off in the lower teens. Expect similar numbers tomorrow. We are still expecting the coldest air of the season to reach us by the middle of the week! That's teeth-chattering! ;)

So lots of cold... and as Gary and Jeff would say "with no reward". (Reward being SNOW!) We could see a few flakes flying Monday night... but that's it... just flurries. Maybe a light dusting up towards the Missouri/Iowa boarder. What is going on? Well, another upper level wave is going to move by. But will it be enough to overpower the dry air at the surface? Here is a look at that piece of energy on the NAM... this is the 500mb chart:

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You can clearly see the disturbance swinging through. BUT then we check the surface forecast... and it is dry, with light snow north:

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So that's why MAYBE a flurry.

Something to watch is Wednesday. The models have been more and more consistant in developing a pretty good wave. Here is the GFS for Wednesday afternoon:

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Right now... the NAM keeps us dry Wed... but the GFS is bringing in a little moisture:

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We'll see. Notice there is also a surface high in the region, counter-acting that. Right now we'll go 20% and update it as needed.

Would you believe HURRICANE EPSILON is STILL going? This evening, winds are sustained at 80mph... and it's a pretty compact storm with hurricane-force winds only extending about 25 miles from the center. It has a really good eye... here is a look at the satellite image:

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I am honored to have written our 300th blog entry! :)
Have a great evening... I am in for Gary tomorrow. He will be back on Tuesday!
Jamie

Posted by at 6:33 PM | Comments (4)

Viewer Question

Time to answer a viewer question. I thought this one would be a good blog entry:

Based on the hourly surface observations at 2:00 P.M. the center of the low is located right around the Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Arkansas border-in fact, it is almost 63 degrees in Southern Kansas/Missouri at this time. 9 out of 10 times if memory serves me correctly, that is really good track for snow-if the low is weak like this one is now, the snow/precip. usually is closer to the low-so why did the precip fall almost 500 miles North of this low and why with a pretty strong temp. gradient is this low not stronger? I'm just curious-I realize our dew points are only in the 20's but Nebraska'a were in the teens. This just seemed like a pretty good set up and I'm surprised the dynamics did not produce at least a lt. snow event for here. Thanks in advance for your repsonse
Bill

To answer... the storm that tracked to our south was not the reason there was snow up in Nebraska and Iowa today. There was a weak upper-level disturbance that moved across the area. You can actually see it on this morning's forecast maps for this afternoon:

See that yellow steak with x's, and the yellow spot over Iowa? That is the culprit... an area of Positive Vorticity Advection... which leads to rising air. We also had an 850mb low over us which helped increase cloud cover and bring light precip:

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We didn't see much more than some flurries/freezing drizzle here. But they did pick up almost 3" of snow in Omaha! Even with those low dew points! The surface low you referred to did help to pull in some colder air, though!

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That is the thing about forecasting... you have to analyze what is going on at ALL levels of the atmosphere.

Now for Sunday... we should see the return of some sunshine around here! It looks like it will still be cold, though... with highs in the upper 20s. If you are going to the Chief's game... brrrrrr! Hope you can stay warm! Temps will be falling into the lower 20s by the end of the game!

Still looking pretty cold the next five days or so, with just a 20% chance of flurries or light snow here and there. Nothing major at all. The models are even hinting at a WARM UP come next weekend! We could be close to 50 degrees again! Stay tuned!

And last... if you get a chance to watch the 10pm tonight... Mags is going to make her TV debut. :) She met a new friend today... Keith King's yellow lab named Murphy! They had some fun running around together. At first, Mags was a little scared... but after awhile she was running after Murphy! Then they got tired and wanted to rest:

Enjoy your evening!
Jamie

Posted by at 6:40 PM | Comments (2)

COLD... But not too cold for a HURRICANE!!

TODAY'S NUMBERS:
HIGH: 37
LOW: 21

Well... we've spent four afternoons in a row in the 30s... as colder air continues to grip the region. And it's not going anywhere any time soon! Below you can see the 850 mb (5,000 feet) temperatures and wind:

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Colder air is in place this weekend... and notice the winds above. This is Sunday evening... and the little white aarows point in the direction the winds will be moving. So the northerly flow will continue... and by Tuesday, we'll start to see some REAL ARCTIC AIR moving in!! Lows in the teens and highs in the 20s can be expected next week!

But then there are signs of a warm-up... and this is a clue to the overall weather pattern, as we continue to watch it set up. We are getting a better idea of what it might be!!

And our historic hurricane season continues! Even though hurricane season is technically OVER (it ends Nov. 30th)... we have a new hurricane!! Would you believe Epsilon is churing in the cool waters of the Atlantic??

Click to enlarge

The latest numbers are:
MOTION: NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH
WINDS: 75 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS
PRESSURE: 987 MB...29.15 INCHES

Epsilon is expected to weaken to a tropical storm on Saturday. Still, quite an amazing season!!

Hope you have a great weekend!
Jamie

Posted by at 7:33 PM | Comments (6)

Friday Forecast... a Look at the Weekend... and a Look at my new Puppy!

TODAY'S NUMBERS:
HIGH: 31
LOW: 21

The mostly sunny sky we had this afternoon is being whittled away by some high and midlevel clouds. You can see them moving in on the satellite picture below:

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These clouds will help hold temperatures up a bit tonight... we should see lows near 20 degrees. Without the clouds, we would be much colder!

A peek into the weekend... things look a little disorganized for us. A weak storm will move way south of KC... but we will see little areas of energy that *could* still bring us some precipitation. Here is a look at Saturday afternoon:

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You can see the main storm to our south... but there is still the chance of a few LIGHT showers here. It could be drizzle, flurries or even light snow... but it doesn't look like it will last for long... and it won't amount to much.

I wanted to post a few pictures of our new puppy, Mags. She is now 10 weeks old, but these pictures were taken last week, at 9 weeks. She is a yellow lab, and SO CUTE... as you can see! :)

Here she is listening to Gary's forecast!

And now it's time for a nap! How could you not love that little face??

Jamie

Posted by at 6:59 PM | Comments (7)