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Cold & maybe snow
Cold air is going to settle back into the region the next few days as Jamie stated in the last blog entry. Now, let's focus on the possibility of snow. A storm, somewhat similar to last week's major snowstorm, is showing up. It is, again, very unusual as the energy is dropping across the Canadian border and then south southwest into the Rockies. If this energy carves out enough of a trough (seen below on the 84 hour NAM valid Saturday 6 PM) then warmer air will be drawn north above the cold air mass in place over us. There are questions as to how much troughiness develops west of Kansas City. We will know more as the new data comes out this afternoon and tonight. Watch the 5, 6, and 10 PM newscasts tonight and I will talk about these trends.
Click map to enlarge
Above is the 500 mb flow (18,000 feet up) valid Saturday at 6 PM. Notice the trough (dip in the flow) centered through Colorado. If this gets any deeper we will have a high likelyhood of snow over the weekend. Any weaker and it could be just very cold and dry.
Have a great day!
Gary
Posted by at December 14, 2005 10:59 AM
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Hey Gary,
If it was to snow when would it happen. Does it still look like snow and would it be big for Appleton City.
Daniel,
It is still a bit iffy on the snow for the weekend. If everything comes together we could see 1 to 3" of snow. Let's see how it sets up.
Gary
Posted by: daniel at December 14, 2005 3:33 PM
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Hello Gary,
IF WE GET ANY SNOW ON SATURDAY HOW MUCH ACCUMULATION ARE YOU EXPECTING? YOU THINK THIS IS GONNA BE A BIG SNOW STORM? JUST CURIOUS. THANK YOU FOR YOUR TIME!
ANNA
Anna,
1" to 3" are possible the way it looks right now. Let's see how it sets up. It is just too early being 3 days away.
Gary
Posted by: Anna at December 14, 2005 7:42 PM
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Hi Gary:
It does indeed look like the energy diving over the ridge in NNW flow, spinning up to the west etc... appears to be this seasons modus operendi (sic). The GFS, as you point out, remains rather vague and desultory in developing the trof west of us, but then again, the last storm waited to show its spots until a bit before the event - hard to forecast that, I would imagine.
The longer term GFS appears to promise quite cold, possibly frigid conditions, around 200 hours or so out, perhaps later than that, with the flow coming right out of the NW territories of Canada then.
Personally, I'd prefer warmer weather with the gas bills, but more snow would be nice, if we have to get the Arctic down here again.
Cheers,
StormDog
Dog,
This will likely not be nearly as big as the last storm as the last one produced a significant upper low. This part of the pattern is carving out some troughiness, but not a big upper low. It may be just strong enough for some nice warm advection snow.
Gary
Posted by: StormDog at December 14, 2005 8:13 PM
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2 Ice storms so far. Houston and Texas area. Now Virginia and North Carolina. As far as my research on the Upcoming Tornado season. I watch the preceding winter to see where Ice Storms occur. I beleive that these Ice Storms form a boundry for the Spring Tornado season. I think that these 2 Ice Storms will form the Southern Boundry for the Tornado season. Now I am watching to see how far North an Ice Storm will develop. This will form the Northern Boundry. Will also be tracking the Jet over the Winter as well as certin Dynamics coming eastward off the rockies as well as northerly flow coming from the Gulf. I will start forming a Spring theory around Febuary 8th.
Steve,
There may be something to your idea of ice storm boundaries, but only because it is related to my theory. The weather pattern that we are now cycling through will repeat. So, a storm that develops now will likely be back in a slightly different form the next time through the cycle. It will be extremely difficult for any ice storms north of Oklahoma, so this is where your theory will fail. I am expecting a few perfect set ups for tornadoes this spring based on my theory.
Gary
Posted by: Steve Newport at December 15, 2005 7:28 AM
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Gary- My wife & I had a question about the evening weather tonight- We wanted to take our Great Dane down to the Plaza this evening and just stroll around. Is it too cold to take pets out in the evening? Thanks!
Matt & Elisa
MATT & ELISA:
I have always heard the rule... if it's too cold for you, it's probably too cold for your dog. The dog's fur will kind of act like your winter coat does.
Be on the lookout for chilly dog signs... like whining, stopping mid-walk, or picking up his paws (otherwise known as the "I'm cold!" dance).
I took Mags out last night around 6pm, with temperatures in the lower 30s and she was fine.
Hope that helps!
Jamie
Posted by: Matt & Elisa at December 15, 2005 5:18 PM
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During the 10 p.m. weather report, on Thur, Dec 15, Gary referred to the name of the precipitation type that fell midday today. The 6th graders at Xavier Elem. in Leavenworth were fascinated by the texture of the precipitation (it reminded them of icy packing pellets). Would you please provide some interested 6th graders with more information about this "soft hail"? Thank you. Mrs. M
MRS. M:
Here is the definition of GRAUPEL from the American Meteorological Society:
Graupel—Heavily rimed snow particles, often called snow pellets; often indistinguishable from very small soft hail except for the size convention that hail must have a diameter greater than 5 mm.
Sometimes distinguished by shape into conical, hexagonal, and lump (irregular) graupel.
Hope that helps!
Jamie
Posted by: Mrs. M at December 15, 2005 10:50 PM
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