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 December 4, 2005

Cold... (yawn!)

TODAY'S NUMBERS:
HIGH: 27
LOW: 12

This part of the weather pattern is getting old to me. I am tired of saying the same thing over and over again. IT'S COLD!! I guess I could mix it up a bit... it's frigid... it's freezing... it's an ice box out there!! Today's high hit 27 at KCI, and 28 downtown after starting off in the lower teens. Expect similar numbers tomorrow. We are still expecting the coldest air of the season to reach us by the middle of the week! That's teeth-chattering! ;)

So lots of cold... and as Gary and Jeff would say "with no reward". (Reward being SNOW!) We could see a few flakes flying Monday night... but that's it... just flurries. Maybe a light dusting up towards the Missouri/Iowa boarder. What is going on? Well, another upper level wave is going to move by. But will it be enough to overpower the dry air at the surface? Here is a look at that piece of energy on the NAM... this is the 500mb chart:

dec 3 500mb.gif
Click to enlarge

You can clearly see the disturbance swinging through. BUT then we check the surface forecast... and it is dry, with light snow north:

dec 3 sfc.gif
Click to enlarge

So that's why MAYBE a flurry.

Something to watch is Wednesday. The models have been more and more consistant in developing a pretty good wave. Here is the GFS for Wednesday afternoon:

dec 4 500.gif
Click to enlarge

Right now... the NAM keeps us dry Wed... but the GFS is bringing in a little moisture:

dec 4 sfc.gif
Click to enlarge

We'll see. Notice there is also a surface high in the region, counter-acting that. Right now we'll go 20% and update it as needed.

Would you believe HURRICANE EPSILON is STILL going? This evening, winds are sustained at 80mph... and it's a pretty compact storm with hurricane-force winds only extending about 25 miles from the center. It has a really good eye... here is a look at the satellite image:

dec 4 epsilon.jpg
Click to loop


I am honored to have written our 300th blog entry! :)
Have a great evening... I am in for Gary tomorrow. He will be back on Tuesday!
Jamie

Posted by at December 4, 2005 6:33 PM

Comments

******************
Jamie

I have never seen such a dry weather pattern for the central U.S. The upper ridge off of the West Coast is expected to stay persistant for quite some time. The GFS model clearly shows this pattern persisting. This means a cold northwest wind or a downslope based northwest wind. The storm track is continuing to be diverted northward into Canada. I hope K.C. gets some snow soon. Wednesday doesn't look too promising. I will look forward to Gary's updated winter forecast soon. It only takes one storm to change the winter season!

Devin

DEVIN:
Do you believe it is Dec. 5th and we've only had a trace of snow?! Sigh. We have been so dry latley... we finished the month of November over an inch below average on precip... and that continues! Last night's 0Z data looked better for snow on Wed... but today's data takes the storm farther south... so that wouldn't be much for us at all! We'll keep watching it...
Jamie

Posted by: Devin Kellerman at December 4, 2005 8:09 PM

*************************
What happened to the kinder, gentler winter weather that was forecast just a few weeks ago?
My only complaint is that we don't have a good snow storm!

DWIGHT:
We hear ya! If it's cold... at least let it snow! ;) We could be back into the upper 40s by the weekend. So if we don't get snow out of the Wednesday/Thursday storm... sigh.
Jamie

Posted by: Dwight at December 5, 2005 9:20 AM

*********************
Jamie,
You are doing a great job with all the updates! I really hope that we get some snow on Wednesday as this cold isn't much fun without some white stuff to play in. If we do get snow, would it actually be measureable or just another dusting?

MARK:
Thank you for your nice comments! Last night it looked pretty good for snow on Wednesday, and we were really excited to come in and make some cool snowfall maps!! But today... the storm is trending farther south. So we have gone from a potential of 2-4" to nothing! :(
Jamie

Posted by: Mark M at December 5, 2005 10:16 AM

******************
Hey do u think that we will get any accumulating snow in Appleton wednesday through thursday. I hope so

DANIEL:
Last night's models had Appleton City in some accumulating snow... but today's run has less. It looks like maybe an inch or so... we will continue to track the storms and make updates, as necessary.
Jamie

Posted by: Daniel at December 5, 2005 2:03 PM

 
 

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