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New data will be out soon!
The afternoon data dropped the precipitation amounts a bit. But, this is still somewhat similar to last week when the evening before the storm I adjusted our forecast from 2 to 3 inches up to 7 or even more. Will the same trend happen tonight at 10 PM. It will be close enough to the storm that I will be taken the data very seriously. If it shows a weaker trend I will go with that, but if it shows a stronger trend I will go with that scenario. The NAM, NGM, ADONIS, and GFS models will be out by the time I am on at 10 PM tonight. Adonis will be out enough to show the latest output from this model during the show. Adonis did quite well with the last storm predicting 5 to 6 inches (we ended up with 7 to 12). Adonis is our in house computer model run by Weather Central.
So, stay tuned and we will have this forecast updated at 10 PM tonight. You can check the weather hotline over the weekend for updates. Our hotline number is 913-831-4141.
Gary Lezak
Posted by at December 16, 2005 7:26 PM
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Hi - Left a message on the phone re your pattern theory - an epiphany hit me while walking outside at lunch tonite - absolutely spot on I now must agree - if early Nov was part of the pattern, then a repeat of that part of the pattern should bring rather mild conditions to us again, before becoming very cold again, as you told me!!! I am a very "crow-eating" dog!!!
Let us hope that we get a nice haul of snow - tho I think your house may receive more than mine, being further west!!! We shall see - can't watch 10pm since I'm at work - here. I work tommorrow pm til 11 pm so perhaps it will be an entertaining experience! 2-4" would be good enough, more would be better
Cheers!!!!!
A Rather Greedy StormDog
Posted by: stormdog at December 16, 2005 8:10 PM
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Well guys, looking at the 500 mb and the 850 mb maps on the SPC, you may be correct, although, water vapor suggests more vorticity than what the 500 mb is showing, I think. I hope that we end up with more than an inch, but that would be the more usual KC fare - usually KS gets more in most instances. Actually, if we only get an inch, I rather hope tommorrow ends up sunny, rather than put up with nuisance stuff.
Later,
Dog
STORMDOG:
Hey, there... we have been struggling on the Southern side of town to get little more than a dusting! Most of the action has been North of I-70... and on the Kansas side. Our forecast:
North: 3 to 6"
South: 2 to 3"
And we just got little Mags cleaned and clipped this morning... lets hope she doesn't get all dirty playing in the snow! :)
Jamie
Posted by: StormDog at December 16, 2005 10:08 PM
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HI - Yeah, we only got an inch here out of this, but oh well, the GFS long range has hinted at a rather active situation first week of January, tho perhaps more rain/mix than snow, but a nice rainstorm would be nice in my opinion - looks good in the guage!!!
Parker, my Lab mix, tried to dig out under our new 3800.00 dollar privacy fence - we put chili powder, pepper, hot spice mix and poured it on the spot - the fence guy said one whiff of this in a dog's nose, and they aren't so enthusiastic about digging (you can get bulk chili at City Market, Habashi Market, or at Indian stores in Overland Park)
Definitely, lots of dirty dog paw prints on our laminate wood flooring and rugs, but that is what cleaning supplies are for!!!
Later, Dog
DOG:
I am going to remember that about the spicy mixture! That is a GREAT idea... because I know Labs love to dig!! :)
Thanks!
Jamie
Posted by: StormDog at December 18, 2005 6:28 PM
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