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Weather Pattern & will the snowflake contest end?
Good morning! I will be back to work today. I am working this morning for 106.5 WDAF and Newsradio 980 KMBZ. The new data comes out in a few minutes. I will add some maps and update our forecast after analyzing the data.
I think we are ready to update the winter forecast. This should be ready by the end of this week. So, what is this weather pattern that we are in? My theory has worked as usual, however, our specific forecast may have been a bit off. What I mean is, the weather pattern did set up between October 10th and November 10th, and I firmly believe we are going through the first cycle. It definitely has more cold air potential than I had anticipated. I have spent the past hour looking at the pattern from October 10th through today and I will have the updated forecast by Thursday night, perhaps earlier. There are phases of the cycle that seem capable of producing major storm systems. If we have cold air in place as these major storm systems develop then we could have a couple of significant snowstorms. This is actually part of the initial forecast as I thought we may have a January and/or a February snowstorm. But, I was concerned about the rest of the pattern. The dry part of the pattern has been a lot colder than expected. So, give us a day or two and we will make some changes. The bottom line is: We are going through the pattern that set up by November 10th. And, as usual, we know a lot more as we get into December.
New data is in. Above is the NAM forecast precipitation for Wednesday through Thursday. It predicts about 35 hundreths of an inch liquid. A 15 to 1 ratio would give us around 5 inches of snow. 15 to 1 means 15 inches of snow would melt down to 1 inch of rain. The typical ratio is 10 to 1, but with the cold and dry airmass in place it could be 12 to 1 to as much as 20 to 1 ratio. This may be a wet run of the NAM, but the NGM model has similar amounts and a somewhat potent storm system. So, confidence is high that we will get at least 2 inches with a chance of 3 or more. As of 9:15 AM I am going with a 2 to 3 inch snow event for the Kansas City area with some locations getting a bit more. Let's see what we are thinking by the 5 PM newscast. Be sure to watch tonight.
Gary
Posted by at December 6, 2005 7:36 AM
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How much snow could appleton city get from this system. more then 5 inches i hope
Daniel,
I think you will get anywhere from 1 to 5 inches.
Gary
Posted by: daniel at December 6, 2005 11:41 AM
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hey gary, I completley agree, i looked @ the data, and i am thinking about the same...wow i am so excited, hopefully this one wont let us down and we can enjoy the white stuff! I will call you after I get out of musical try-outs!!!
~little andy
Little Andy,
It still looks good, but there are some problems with this storm.
Gary
Posted by: andy at December 6, 2005 12:08 PM
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Get your snow Shovels ready. State Road crews get the plows on. Fill up the Salt Shakers. Everybody get your windssheild wiper fluid tanks filled up. Everybody please drive carefully.
Steve Newport
DeSoto Kansas
Posted by: Steve Newport at December 6, 2005 3:55 PM
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Gary,
Let me first say I LOVE YOU GUYS!!! KSHB is the only station we watch! Will we here in Holden Missouri see a good chunk of this? I'm totally sad I missed the snow flake contest. You guys are the GREATEST!!!
Thanks,
Shannon
SHANNON:
You are too kind! Thank you for the positive comments! We hope you got some good snowfall amounts! It looks like pretty much everyone got something! :)
Jamie
Posted by: shannon robison at December 6, 2005 4:16 PM
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well i guess it's only fair us northern missourians share our wealth with the rest of the area, though it is looking like we will see perhaps quite a bit of snow out of this one too, we've already had 2.8" of snow this month up here.. here's hoping for, oh, 3-6" here from this storm :-)
GLEN:
Thanks so much for sharing! :)
Jamie
Posted by: Glen Briggs at December 6, 2005 8:05 PM
Gary:
Thanks for the discussion!! This has been an impressive stretch of cold the past 12 days esp. considering normal climo and the weather we had in Sept, Oct., and most of November. What winter storm have we ever had that did not have problems???lol We always seem to have some issue that wipes out our chances at a good snow. I have to say, and I realize I'm just a hobbyist and Latin teacher, but the latest data from the NAM and NGM are encouraging!! I guess by this time tomorrow the rooster will have come home to roost and all will be revealed. Thanks again for all the time you take to post comments and i really appreciate that Jamie answered my question Saturday
Regards
Bill G.
Posted by: Bill Gollier at December 6, 2005 9:23 PM
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Do you think that we will have school tomorrow if we attend a shawnee mission school?
KIM:
We bet you don't! :)
Posted by: Kim at December 7, 2005 10:13 AM
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It is now 11:25 am Wednesday, 12/7/05. What's the update on the inches?
SARA:
Most of the viewing area saw 8-12 inches of snow.
Posted by: sara at December 7, 2005 11:21 AM
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Gary,
When forcasting snow, use your gut, not just your computers. This one felt like a half a footer from the word go.
More than that...13" was our highest amount. Thanks for posting!
Posted by: Hushpook at December 7, 2005 2:56 PM
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Gary:
I know you are incredibly buisy tonight-I just wanted to say that you and the whole team did a fantastic job with this storm. Awesome job and kudos to you!!! We finally got one-been along time comming!!!!
THANKS, BILL!
Posted by: Bill Gollier at December 7, 2005 10:11 PM
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my dad said you wanted viewers to let you know snowfall amounts...we've recieved, as of 11:15 pm : 12/7/05, 6.75 inches. we are located in anderson county, ks, on highway 59, 1.2 miles north of highway 31. By the way, we also recieved over 12 inches of rain back during that one month this year, can't remember which season. and my dad and I are storm watchers for the National Weather Service out of Topeka. (AN207)
thanks for your accuracy, I trust your forcasts the most.
Charley
CHARLEY:
Thank you so much for the report! And thanks for watching! :)
Have fun with all the snow!
Jamie
Posted by: charley caron at December 7, 2005 11:25 PM
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