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Snow, snow, snow, is showing up?

Tonight, I will be presenting my weather pattern theory to the local chapter of the American Meteorological Society. There are a lot of skeptics out there, but we feel we have made a major discovery so it is time to share. I went to Washington D.C. in August, and I am now doing the presentation to a smaller group tonight. I do plan on working on getting the theory published later this year and presenting it at the big conference in San Antonio next January.

Anyway, the latest data is doing EXACTLY what we thought it would. Since we believe we are now in a 60 to 62 day cycle this cold change and potentially snowier pattern is RIGHT on schedule. Most forecasters are tied to the computer models, but we have the theory and as tough as the past few weeks have been to wait, the waiting is likely over. A very similar set up to December is happening right before our eyes. It will turn much colder soon, perhaps as cold as it got in December. And snow has suddenly shown up for Sunday night and Monday. Confidence on the snow is extremely low at this time, but confidence in the cold is extremely high.

Today, we set the all time January record. 2006 is the warmest January in Kansas City recorded history. Get ready for a cold change.

Gary

Posted by at 12:14 PM | Comments (5)

Winter's return.....we keep waiting?

http://kshb.dayport.com/launcher/150225/
Go to the link above by copy and then paste it into your browser. It is our winter forecast that we made back on November 10th. Based on my theory we were very concerned that this winter would be very warm with little chance of snow and cold. I thought that the "storm generator" out in the Pacific would hold up the Arctic air in Alaska and Canada. This is exactly what has happened.

With this said, we also made an adjustment to the winter forecast in December as we were going through an extremely cold, and unexpected twist to the overall pattern. I thought that if this part of the pattern returned that we would have another cold stretch and likely very similar to the December 17 day stretch of cold.

Now, we wait for this part of the cycle to return, and RIGHT ON SHEDULE, it is showing up and this time the beginning is less than one week away. The same pattern that set up in December is setting up again and it will turn colder. In December, Jeff Penner and I were calling it "United States made" Arctic air because it wasn't a big high pressure area that built in Canada and then blasted us. It was a high pressure area that formed over the U.S. And, this is possible again. For it to be as cold as the last time the "United States made" airmass will likely form again. If it doesn't then the cold might not be as strong as December, but I have a feeling that it will.

Above, is the upperlevel flow at 500 mb and the surface for the same time. This is valid next Monday night as we are finally in the cold air with a storm developing just east of us. This will be an interesting 7 days as it is more likely to occur. It has been driving me a bit nuts. Through this process I have realized that we may be in a 60 to 62 day cycle. We thought it was around 54 to 55 days, but now that the second cycle is approaching its end, and a third cycle is about to begin, it is more likely a 60 to 62 day cycle that will then continue into the summer.

We should have some return to winter very soon. Below is a link to an article that came out Sunday in the Joplin Globe newspaper. Doug Heady worked with us at NBC Action News a few years ago and now he is doing quite well and using our theory. Let me know what you think. Oh, in the article the reporter uses the word "metabolic", she meant milibar.

http://www.joplindaily.com/articles/2006/01/28/news/02headyformula.txt

Gary

Posted by at 6:39 AM | Comments (13)

Amazing Month

TODAY'S NUMBERS
HIGH: 56
LOW: 38

We are STILL on pace to set a record for the WARMEST JANUARY EVER! Only a few days to go!

More amazing weather... remember yesterday's blog entry... concerning the storm reports in Kansas? Well, it turns out that the one tornado report... was indeed a tornado! And not only that, but the First January tornado since 1950 in the Witchita area! Here is a very interesting clip from the NWS website there:

"This rare January tornado affected the east side of Newton, where it damaged 50 cars at Conklin's car lot, and blew over a light pole. This tornado then travelled to NE 12th and Hillside where it threw a wheelbarrow into a home. At the end of its path, which was about 4 miles, it blew some shingles off a home at 2 miles southwest of Walton. Not only was this a rare event by January standards, it was a very unique tornado. This tornado actually did not have a thunderstorm associated with it. In fact, it was associated with a weak shower. The radar barely identified the shower, and did not give much in the way of hints of a developing tornado.

Image 1

However, Image 1 does show two low level boundaries intersecting one another which is close to the development of the tornado. These type of tornadoes are sometimes given the term landspout, because they usually form from the ground and stretch their way up into the cloud. The wind speeds of this landspout tornado was up to 70 mph which classifies it as an F0. The width of the tornado was about 50 yards."

Wow... pretty unbelieveable!! The storm that brought that severe weather to Kansas has moved well off to our east, and in it's wake... we are left with quiet conditions. Expect this to continue as we head into Monday. High temperatures will be *slightly* cooler on Monday, as an upper level wave moves through... but it is coming through dry. So another beautiful day is in store as we start the work week!

Tuesday looks even better, with highs expected to surge into the 60s once again! Do you believe it?!
Jamie

Posted by at 8:04 PM

RAIN!!

TODAY'S NUMBERS:
HIGH: 57
LOW: 46

Finally! A good soaking rain for many of us! This storm tapped into some good moisture, and that meant most places saw about a half-inch or more in rainfall! Here are some of the area totals so far:

KCI: .70"
DOWNTOWN: .50"
OLATHE: .61"
TOPEKA: .38"
KIRKSVILLE: .89"
ST. JOSEPH: .41"
LAWRENCE: .72"
EMPORIA: .11"
MANHATTAN: .23"
CHILLICOTHE: .62"
KNOB NOSTER: .45"
LAKE OF THE OZARKS: .61"

And despite the rain and cloud cover... temperatures are still above average today! Wow! There are still a few isolated thunderstorms out there this evening (nothing severe)... but that is about it! The severe weather stayed to our west today, with mainly reports of large hail West of Topeka:

Click to enlarge

Notice that one red dot on the map... that was a tornado reported in Harvey County, KS. The damage report reads:
"Winds blown out of cars at auto dealership. Light polls down, and large tree limbs down"

It looks like the chance of rain will come to an end for US shortly after midnight, and things will be drier for Sunday. We may see cloud cover a good part of the day, though. Afternoon temperatures will be a little cooler than today, with highs in the upper 40s to right around 50 degrees.

This week has another run at 60 degrees (on Tuesday). So mild conditions will continue!! But we are seeing some evidence that it could start to turn colder by next weekend. You can see it advertised on the GFS:

Click to enlarge

We are watching that trend! Otherwise, it looks quiet until then!
Hope you are enjoying your weekend!

Posted by at 8:15 PM

Rain and Colder

Good morning! I am sitting here in my home office Forecast Center this morning, 5:55 AM, as usual. And, I am on the radio with Newsradio 980 KMBZ and 106.5 WDAF in just a few minutes.
The data is MUCH MORE EXCITING than yesterday morning.

The latest trend is back to the Arctic and snowier scenario for the first half of February. It will be amazing if it develops because the flow across the Pacific Ocean is so strong. This is why the computer models are having such a hard time. By around February 3rd or 4th the flow is forecasted to amplify and get out of control.

Above, you can see the flow getting out of control. The models will have a very hard time with this amplification, and confidence is still a bit low. But, the trend is back to cold for the first half of February.

In the mean time a storm is approaching us this weekend and we may get some nice rainfall amounts Saturday. Then, Sunday another storm develops. Snow showers are possible Monday, but I doubt there will be any chance of accumulation. Let's look at the new data as it rolls out because things can change fast. A few days ago this storm was not very impressive.

Gary

Posted by at 7:06 AM | Comments (6)

Warm weather to continue?

Very sad weather news this morning. And, let me begin by saying it may makes sense. Here is what I am seeing this early Thursday morning.

The latest computer model runs are NOT showing the Arctic air potential that has been showing up. Only one computer model has been advertising the potential for cold. The GFS! And this model has now completely backed off, however it is just one run of the model. Why would I even believe this GFS model? The pattern it was predicting fit like a glove with the pattern that had occurred in early December when we turned cold. But, the December part of our pattern developed due to a split flow that had formed due to an amplification of the overall pattern. This was being advertised to repeat within a week, but the October and early November version is what may be repeating. I am rather shocked at this latest trend, but really not surprised at all. The skeptics to my weather pattern theory could have a field day with this, which is fine with me because this warmer scenario, and the potential colder scenario still completely fits within the theory and the cycle we are now repeating over and over again. It will come down to how much the flow amplifies. I know where it is going to amplify, north and northwest of Montana, but will it get out of control.

We made our winter forecast on November 10th and at that time we believed it would almost be no winter at all. I even stated "we could have the lowest amount of snow ever in a season". And, we were expecting anywhere from 7 inches to 15 inches for the entire season. Then, we made our adjustment in the winter forecast and may or may not have made the wrong call. It will depend on the amplification of the overall pattern during the first week of February.

The weather pattern that set up between October 10th and November 10th showed very little chance of it turning cold. And, with the "storm generator" over the Pacific not budging, the cold air would be held up in Canada with the exception of an occasional break through and weakening of the storm generator. This was our forecast and it is pretty much happening as we wait for the next break down of the northern Pacific "Storm Generator".

We must watch the developments in the next two weeks. Will it be the late October and early November version of the pattern (the first cycle), or will it be the late November and December part of the pattern (the first full cycle, or second cycle really)? The trend is for the warmer version. But, don't give up yet.

Will we have another winter storm this season? SUDDENLY ONE IS TRYING TO SHOW UP FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. Otherwise we really need to get some cold air down here and we will know by February 10th if it has been tapped.

More later. I will let you know if these trends continue.

Gary

Posted by at 6:18 AM | Comments (9)

Arctic air watch!

Good morning. It is Tuesday morning, January 24th. Confidence has grown this morning concerning a cold outbreak that a lot of you are actually hoping for. Look below:

Click above to enlarge

Click above to enlarge

Above, you are looking at the 300 and 336 hour prognostications of last nights GFS model. This may be just fantasy, but it fits. And, the GFS has been advertising this change in various forms for about 10 days, and so far nothing has come close to this in reality. So, confidence is still low, but growing. And, there is finally some indication that the other models are hinting at this change. So, I am issuing an "Arctic Air Watch" for the first week of February. Let's see what happens. But, the flow on the top map shows the amplifying ridge in the perfect position to develop a true Arctic airmass and bring it into the United States. It also shows a developing storm which you can clearly see on the second map which shows the surface conditions and a very cold airmass settling in for the long haul.

Below, is this weekend's storm. Almost every computer model now has this very wet looking system. So, our boring weather may be about to take a LONG break. I need it! Let us know if you are ready for more cold and snow.

Have a great day. More on Wednesday. Let's see if these are trends towards excitement, or just fantasy island.

Gary

Posted by at 6:06 AM | Comments (15)

Weird weather pattern alert!

Happy Monday! Arctic air has become firmly established over the northern one third of Canada. We continue to cycle through the same weather pattern that set up in October and November. Remember, when we made our initial winter forecast on November 10th we thought there would be no cold air and it would be warm with very little snow. But, then something happened along the way and it was caused by the weather pattern we are in. Cold air seeped into the United States and it was a surprise to everyone. Not one computer model had a handle on our 17 day cold wave in early December.

So, how does this help us? Not much. Because we rely on these computer models. Oh, we can make up our own minds, but there must be some evidence. The evidence we have right now is the fact that there is brutally cold air well to our north. We must watch it closely, but there is no indication of when it will come down on the latest data. This could change fast. Something to think about.

In the mean time it is warming up again Wednesday into Thursday.

More later.

Gary

Posted by at 11:12 AM | Comments (4)

Warming this Week!

TODAY'S NUMBERS:
HIGH: 45
LOW: 28

We started the day with cloud cover, as expected... and as those clouds thinned this afternoon, temperatures took a jump into the middle-40s. Another day above average, do you believe it??

Now our temperature forecast gets a little tricky for Monday. This is a forecast amendment! Low clouds are streaming down into the region as of 9pm. These clouds and patchy fog could very easily be sloooooow to clear Monday afternoon. So most of the day could end up chilly... in the 30s! We are adjusting the high temperature forecast based on this. So Monday looks like it will be cloudy and cooler than the weekend.

But things go up from there! An upper ridge will be building in, keeping us in warmer air. We're expecting 50s on Tuesday, and 60s on Wednesday!! The next rain-maker will be a cut-off Low moving in later this week. You can see it in Southern California and Northern Mexico:

Click to enlarge

That will slowly drift our way... and right now the models have it reaching us Thursday into Friday. These Lows are sometimes difficult to time out, so right now we just have a 30% chance of rain... and we will continue to watch it!

Hope you have a good week!
Jamie

Posted by at 5:23 PM | Comments (2)

Mild Weather Continues

TODAY'S NUMBERS:
HIGH: 42
LOW: 33

In the last 31 days... 30 of them have been at or above average. The one day we were below average was January 10th... but we were only ONE degree below average... not far off at all! The point is... we are still in the MILD part of the pattern, and still awaiting the arrival of colder air. (See Gary's blog below!)

Meantime, the clouds were slow to lift today, and once they did... the sun was already on its way down! But we were able to jump up to our high of 41 degrees. Tomorrow, look for more clouds, as a storm passes to our south. You can see it on this evening's NAM:

Click to enlarge

We shouldn't see any rain from this one, but you can already see the clouds advecting into our area tonight:

Click to enlarge

The high temperature on Sunday will pretty much be determined by how much cloud cover we see. The thicker the clouds, the cooler the temps. Right now we are shooting for 40 or the lower 40s... another cool day. But still above average!! :)

I hope you are enjoying your weekend!
Jamie
P.S. I think Gary taught Mags how to jump on the couch... because this is her new favorite trick... ;)

Posted by at 8:06 PM | Comments (2)

Look ahead to FRIGID?

What a day! One of the toughest forecasts is to predict rain, sleet, freezing rain, thunderstorms, and snow. And for it to happen. All of these precipitation types occurred, and there were thunderstorms in the area. Glen, one of our spotters, reported thunder earlier today and 3 1/2 inches of snow in Trenton. The storm is now over, and I am glad. It wasn't that impressive and I am worn out. It was fun though for a while.

Now, let's look ahead. Below are the 8 PM temperatures in Alaska tonight. A strengthening and growing Arctic airmass continues to build. Only one computer model, GFS, has been advertising this cold air to make it to KC within 10 days. But, I am buying it at this moment and this FITS with the 54 day cycle. We would have a big storm around January 31st if everything lines up. Notice the temperatures 35 to 60 degrees BELOW zero. WATCH OUT!

Click to enlarge

Have a great weekend. We are watching a "surprise" storm that could affect us on Sunday. I will address this tonight, but we will have to watch this closely as it may pass across Oklahoma and Arkansas on Sunday.

Gary

Posted by at 9:02 PM | Comments (3)

60s to Snow

Yesterday, much of the viewing area was right around 60 degrees before a cold front sweeped through, dropping temperatures.

We go from 60s to the chance of snow today!

A fast-moving storm is heading our way, and will bring light accumulations to the region. Freezing rain is beginning this morning. We are expecting that to mix with sleet and snow in the late morning/early afternoon hours... before changing to ALL snow by this evening.

By the evening commute, roads could be slushy or snowpacked in some locations!

The map below, from the NWS, has a pretty good handle on expected snowfall accumulations by tonight:

It *is* a tricky forecast, though, as we are starting off with LIQUID precip before changing over to anything that could stick. Right now, we are under a WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY... with a SNOW ADVISORY in effect for some of our Northern counties. Stay up-to-date on our warning/watches situation here:

NWS PLEASANT HILL

We will continue to monitor it as we go through the day, and Gary will have an update this evening.
Jamie

Posted by at 6:14 AM | Comments (6)

Back from NY!

Well, of course the WEATHER affected our trip to New York City! Isn't that fitting? ;)

There were high wind warnings in effect yesterday for NYC... and wind gusts to 50 mph at LaGuardia! That meant delays up to THREE hours! Our flight got cancelled alltogether! We were supposed to leave at 11:30am, but we didn't get home until midnight.

I didn't mind all the waiting, though, as I got to read my new book. It's called "Marley and Me," and it's all about a yellow lab named Marley. It's a really good read... I only have a few chapters to go! And it really reminds me of Mags! Gary did such a nice thing to watch her while we were gone! And from the looks of those pictures he posted... she had tons of fun! :)

Anyway, this was my first trip to NYC, and it was amazing! We did a LOT... as there is so much to do and see there! One of my favorite moments from the trip was seeing a Broadway show. We saw "Dirty Rotten Scoundrals"... it was really funny!

I also LOVED Times Square... so much energy there!! Here is a picture that my husband took:

Another one of my favorite moments was going to the Today Show! We stood outside on Rockefeller Plaza for three hours... in the cold... all for maybe 15-20 seconds on the show! Here is the sign we made... did anyone get to see us?

Not only were we on TV... but Matt Lauer also shook my hand! :) That was pretty cool. When he and Katie came outside, I yelled to him, "Hey, Matt... I went to Ohio University!"... knowing that he also went there! He came over and shook my hand, and said, "Go Bobcats!" and asked me what year I graduated. I told him... and he said, "Man, I'm old!" as he grabbed his heart and pretended to faint! :) Here is a picture of him doing just that:

And here is another shot of him with Katie:

NBC Studios are in Rockefeller Plaza... where the famous outdoor ice skating rink is:

We walked down to Battery Park, and saw the Statue of Liberty from there (it was WAY too chilly to jump on a ferry!)

And while we were down there, we went to Ground Zero:

And we also went out to the Bronx to see Yankee Stadium (my husband is a HUGE baseball fan):

Overall, it was a GREAT trip!! But it is good to be home, too! :)
Jamie

Posted by at 11:56 AM | Comments (4)

Friday's storm Part 2

Above is the 500 mb chart forecast by the GFS for Friday evening 6 PM. Notice the X over northeast Kansas. This is the upper level storm. If it tracks south of Kansas City we could see significant rain or snow. Other factors such as 1) will it be even stronger and 2) will it be cold enough? We will look at this in more detail Thursday. Friday could be very interesting.

After Friday we see an Arctic front sneaking into the northern US over the weekend. But, the true Arctic air is way north and I think it will be paying us a visit soon.

Gary

Posted by at 11:34 PM | Comments (5)

Mags Part 2

While working with David and Karen on 106.5 WDAF, and John and Ellen on Newsradio 980 KMBZ Mags has run 3 miles.......in my house. It has been non stop this morning. Mags is Jamie's dog. She comes back from New York this afternoon. Her first stop is Windy and Stormy's house.

Good morning, I promise to do an extensive blog entry this afternoon on the approaching winter storm. But, my morning life has been dominated by Mags terrorizing poor Stormy. Windy, just watches them as they spin around the room. It is really Mags spinning around Stormy, pulling on her collar and Windy watching. Here are some pictures. More later.

Gary

Posted by at 7:38 AM | Comments (7)

Friday's storm

A storm will be developing over the plains on Thursday night and Friday. Tonight, in a few minutes, I am going to show the energy that is going to be heading south into the southwestern U.S. There are many uncertainties and I am not even going to go into them until Wednesday. Will it be rain or snow, or maybe even freezing rain, sleet, or a combination of all of them? More tomorrow.

Posted by at 10:00 PM

Mags

It is a cold morning, and when you are taking care of a dog you must walk her. Mags is Jamie's new puppy, 5 months old and a wonderful dog. I have now taken her outside with Windy and Stormy four times already this morning. She is so well behaved, already quite disciplined, and sleeps 8 hours in her own crate. But, man when she awakened this morning at 4:55 AM it was time to get up. Stormy & Windy are really being great hosts, but I am sure they will be happy to get their life back again tomorrow afternoon. Stormy is bonding with Mags. Mags is trying to play with Stormy right now and there they go. They are both in "hyper" mode. It is so cute. Uh, oh, it is time to go back out into the cold.

More on our weather later. New data will be coming in this morning on Friday's storm. I will blog later on.

Gary (Below you can see four pictures. The first one is Windy, Stormy and Mags. The other three are of Stormy and Mags playing)

Posted by at 8:00 AM | Comments (7)

Tracking an end of the week storm?

Monday's Numbers: High: 49 Low: 33

Good afternoon everyone! This is absolutely fascinating as we continue to go through this 54 to 55 day cycle. The storm at the end of the week must be watched very carefully. If we can get the upper low to track south of Kansas City we would end up with a major snowstorm. ONE BIG PROBLEM with this, however. The last time this storm occurred, 55 days ago, it formed into an upper low and tracked just north of KC. If this happens again we would end up with rain, thunderstorms, and very little snow. And, the rain and thunderstorms would be suspect given the time of the year. I favor the repeat track of dumping snow on NW Kansas and not here. But, we can hope.

After this goes by a very cold pattern may set up, just like it did in early December. More tomorrow.

Gary

Posted by at 4:34 PM | Comments (4)

A RECORD HIGH!

TODAY'S NUMBERS:
HIGH: 66 (NEW RECORD!)
LOW: 48

WOW!! Do you believe it was 66 degrees on January 15th?? That is crazy... and a new record high for this date! What a mild month so far! We have now had 25 days in a row of above normal temperatures!

I wanted to share a cool viewer picture with you! This is the full moon I blogged about yesterday:

Curtis Olinger from Lenexa, KS took this from his own backyard... great shot, Curtis! :) Thanks for sending it in!

As for our Monday/Tuesday storm... it just looks like it is not coming together for us. There is energy to our north... and energy to our south... but just nothing HERE. The southern vort might produce some rain/snow over souteastern Missouri...

Click to enlarge

It is still something to watch... but right now... not looking good. Something interesting is showing up on the models though... the end-of-the-week storm is one to watch! Gary and Brett will be tracking this during the week!

I am actually going to the Big Apple for a few days! I am very excited, as I have never been to New York! My husband is a photographer, so you can bet I will share some vacation photos when we get back. The hardest part about the trip... is leaving our little puppy, Mags, behind. But she is in good hands... Gary is dog-sitting for us!! :) I just hope she doesn't forget who we are...

Take care,
Jamie

Posted by at 8:53 PM | Comments (7)

FULL MOON

TODAY'S NUMBERS:
HIGH: 53
LOW: 24

What a beautiful day! Temperatures CONTINUE to run above average. Average highs are in the middle 30s!

We pretty much had wall-to-wall sunshine, too... and this evening we're still mostly clear, just a few high clouds are drifting in:

It should be a good night to view our FULL MOON! This is the Full Wolf Moon. It was named because during the cold and snow of January, packs of wolves used to howl hungrily outside of Indian villages! It should be visible between our high clouds.

We are expecting another nice day for Sunday... with highs in the LOWER 60s again, believe it or not! The big determining factor here will be cloud cover. We will see high clouds thicken as the day goes on... so we will be fighting them to hit our high. Regardless, it will be a great day!

Then on Monday, a storm will be moving through. The initial surface feature looks like it will come through DRY... but on the backside of the storm we could see some light snow:

Click to enlarge

That would happen Monday night into Tuesday morning... but it is just a 30-40% chance right now! Definitely something to stay tuned to! :)

Have a great night!
Jamie

Posted by at 3:49 PM | Comments (2)

Nice weekend, then what?

The weekend is here and thank goodness. It was a long week starting with the early week storm system.

Speaking of storm systems, the next one is heading our way and should arrive Monday or Tuesday. There is still some hope that it will come together and produce something, but at this time I highly doubt it. This storm did occur 55 days ago in our cycle, but it dropped in from Canada digging into an upper low over Kansas. We had a few sprinkles from that storm, and I expecting about the same out of this one, which may end up also forming from energy coming south instead of coming up from the southwest. It just has many problems and seems to be disorganized until it gets east of here. We will watch it closely, but hope is fading.

There isn't another storm showing up yet beyond this. Cold air is building in Canada, but not that strongly. I still am expecting the first half of February to get more active.

Have a great weekend.

Gary

Posted by at 6:08 PM | Comments (3)

A Storm Tonight?

Something interesting has been happening over the past few model runs. We are seeing a trend to deepen tonight's storm. It might look slight, but it is significant to our forecast. See if you can pick it out. Below are the past three NAM runs, starting with Wednesday evening, and ending with this morning:

Click to enlarge

See how the vort max is right over us on this run? Now look what happens to the midnight run:

Click to enlarge

Now it has our storm JUST southwest of KC... in Southeast Kansas. It deepens even MORE on this morning's NAM:

Click to enlarge

We have increased our chance of precipitation overnight into Friday morning because of this. At this point, it looks like we could see a mixed-bag of precip... rain/sleet/snow. Gary will update the situation tonight on NBC Action News at 5, 6 and 10. Be sure to tune in!

In the meantime... enjoy a BEAUTIFUL day ahead of the storm!! Expect highs near 60 and plenty of sunshine!! :)
Jamie

Posted by at 8:50 AM | Comments (4)

Snow and Satellites

It is amazing that the storm we have been talking about for a week or so did end up bringing us accumulating snow to parts of the viewing area! At first, we expected it... then it was looking less likely... but in the end... some of us got it!!

And some of you got it better than others... HEAVY snow fell in areas to the south-southwest of Kansas city. Wilson County, Kansas actually reported 15" of snow near Fredonia! WOW!!

You can see the snow today... it is showing up on our visible satellite image:

Click to enlarge

The reason snow shows up on the VISIBLE satellite imagery... is because this imagery literally shows us the amount of sunlight being scattered back into space by the clouds, aerosols, atmospheric gases, and the Earth's surface.

Thicker clouds have a higher reflectivity (what is called their "albedo") and appear brighter than thinner clouds on a visible image. Snow is great reflector of light... so it ALSO has a very high "albedo," and the earth's surface has a LOW albedo, so it appears very dark. The one big downside to using visible imagery is that... it is only available during daylight hours!!

Anyway, it looks like the snowpack on the ground will slow our warming today. While we DO have breezy southwest winds, they have to blow over the snow-chilled area to our southwest before they get here. Soooo while we *could* be near 60... we will likely stay in the lower 50s.

Thursday looks warmer, though. We should see enough melting today... that by tomorrow, our highs should get into the upper 50s!

That's all for now... make it a good one!
Jamie

Posted by at 10:59 AM | Comments (3)

SNOW BY MORNING?

We are very busy tonight. The latest data has a strong upper level storm developing and tracking just south of Kansas City. Look below at the noon Tuesday 500 mb flow. There will likely be significant snow somewhere, but the bullseye will likely be just south and southeast of KC. And, there may be a problem with it staying as all snow. If it does then 6 inches or more could fall in a few spots. Areas north of Kansas City have much less of a chance of any precipitation at all out of this. More tomorrow.

Click above to enlarge
Gary

Posted by at 9:44 PM | Comments (5)

Is this still the same pattern?

Jamie answered a comment from one of you. I am being critisized for "flip flopping" on my initial forecast of the winter. Our first forecast came out around November 10th. Then we made an update in December based on what we saw. The updated forecast is really not that different from our initital forecast. Specifically, it will seem that way as we went from forecasting 11 inches of snow to 26 inches of snow. And right now we are sitting on that 11 inches. So, what happened?

Remember my theory: The weather pattern sets up between October 10th and November 10th and then begins cycling. Our forecast on November 10th is our initial guess at what the pattern is. But, we really gain confidence after a first cycle of the pattern has completed. This first cycle completed in Decmeber and we made our update. So, now I feel we KNOW the pattern. And this extended warm spell fits right into the November part of the cycle. Which means the cold part of the pattern, which we did not see when we made our November 10th forecast, will likely return before the end of the month.

So, we have not flip flopped, and I am not trying to cover our you know whats. We tell you what we think will happen, and my "discovery" of my weather pattern theory has worked again this year.

Please open your mind to this thinking.

Now as I am writing this new data is coming in. The NAM now has the storm and the other models are even more impressive. Below you can see the latest 30 hour GFS valid Monday evening at 6 PM. We can see the upper low now just developing. This will likely close off into full circulation and then pull in some Gulf moisture. A lot has to happen, but this is the storm that we have been tracking for a long time. Will it go by unnoticed, or will we have an interesting Tuesday? Most likely it produces precipitation, but south of us. More later....

Gary

Posted by at 3:39 PM | Comments (10)

Another Warm One!

TODAY'S NUMBERS:
HIGH: 62
LOW: 31

Once again... we are unseasonably warm today! We officially hit 62 at KCI, and 60 downtown... a good 20 degrees above normal! Do you remember when we first made our winter forecast? We thought it was pretty obvious we would be above normal temperature-wise. Now remember Gary's Weather Pattern Theory. We are in that same part of the pattern now!! Pretty amazing!

So what is heading our way? Would you believe it's another DRY storm? We have seen this over and over the past several weeks... storms tracking RIGHT over us... but lacking MOISTURE. Compare the map below with similar looking maps from recent blog entries:

Click to enlarge

Dry, dry, DRY!

The storm we have been tracking for Monday/Tuesday is still showing up. It's amazing! However, this particualr storm looks like it will track too far south to bring us any precipitaiton. We will likely see clouds from the storm, but that would be about it. Here is the latest model data, to keep you updated:

Click to enlarge

Notice, also, that it is shearing out quite a bit! It is interesting to go back and look at this particular storm on the models over the past few days. You can go back a few blog entries to see when we first started talking about it... and watch how much it changes in a few model runs!

Anyway... under the cloud cover on Monday... we will be COOLER. Then another warm-up for the middle part of the week before another storm moves over us. This would be on FRIDAY... and it could bring us a better chance of precip... maybe even some snow. We will continue to watch it.

Have a good night!
Jamie

Posted by at 8:17 PM | Comments (4)

Unseasonably Warm & Snow?

Warm air built into the Plains on Friday. This airmass will move east and cover our area all weekend.

Click above to enlarge

The latest computer models are even closer to a storm system for early next week. It is very difficult to make any conclusions tonight and the storm we are tracking is energy moving into the Gulf of Alaska tonight. So, we should know a lot more as this jet stream energy moves across the west coast over the weekend. Snow could fall Monday night if everything comes together. We are at 40% chance right now.

Have a great weekend.

Gary

Posted by at 10:08 PM | Comments (2)

A Weekend Warm-Up!

Good afternoon, bloggers!
We started the day pretty GRAY with cloudy skies. But we are starting to see signs of improvement, as the clouds are becoming more broken. This will continue as we head into the afternoon... and the sunshine will help temperatures warm into the lower to mid 40s.

You can see from the title of this blog entry that there is a WARM UP in the forecast for this weekend! It looks like it will be a pretty good one, with highs in the 60s on Saturday... and close to 60 degrees on Sunday. Here is a look at this morning's NAM run, showing the warmer air building in:

Click to enlarge

The weekend will be dry... even though ANOTHER surface low will approach us on Sunday. I cannot count how many of these storms have looked exactly the same (dry!) as they pass through Kansas City:

Click to enlarge

Yawn!

But there is something exciting showing up. The storm we have been talking about all WEEK is now showing up on the GFS and the NAM. It fits right in with the Lezak Weather Pattern Theory... we expected it to be there... and it is! It is lacking moisture, but we will continue to watch it. Here it is on the GFS:

Click to enlarge

Have a great TGIF!!
Jamie

Posted by at 12:24 PM | Comments (3)

Living On the Edge

Hello, there!
This afternoon, the viewing area is split by cloud cover. Mostly cloudy skies are the rule at St. Joseph and KCI... while we are still seeing quite a bit of sunshine downtown and in Olathe. Here is a look at the visible satellite image, valid as of 12:45pm:

Click to enlarge

See how the clouds are splitting the viewing area? We're literally "living on the edge"... of cloud cover today! :) Now the clouds are actually backing in from the Northeast, so they will eventually cool things off for us later this afternoon. But some places haven't warmed much at ALL because the clouds have been in place all day! St. Joseph has not seen the sun today, and they have been in the 30s for most of the day, too! Where we started the day with sunshine, we are into the lower 40s.

We should start to warm again on Friday. We'll see more sunshine and that will help us out! We are also still looking at a big warm up as we head into the weekend!

Checking in on next week's possible storm... here is this morning's GFS run:

Click to enlarge

It's still showing UP... but how will it look in a couple of days? We'll keep you posted.

On a personal note... my name will be changing this weekend! I am officially taking my married name onair... I will be Jamie Jarosik! I hope that doesn't confuse people... but I really am a little old-fashioned and I wanted to change my name :)
Have a good day!
Jamie

Posted by at 1:02 PM | Comments (1)

Beautiful Day!

What a beautiful afternoon! A big bright blue sky, and temperatures in the lower 50s. Wow!

We will see a reinforcing shot of cooler air for Thursday and Friday... but then things should warm up big again as we head into the weekend. You can see this on our 850mb (5,000ft) temps. First, for Thursday evening:

Click to enlarge

Notice there is cooler air riding into KC on Northerly winds. But then things change as we go into Saturday afternoon:

Click to enlarge

Highs on Saturday could be into the 60s again!

Meantime... the weather stays quiet right through the weekend, too.

Now let's take a look at the possible Monday/Tuesday storm. Compare this to Gary's image last night... and you can see that it is slightly different:

Click to enlarge

Do you see how it is not as amplified/deep as last night's run? That slight change could mean the difference between storm and NO storm for us. We'll continue to watch it!

Have a great afternoon!
Jamie

Posted by at 2:27 PM | Comments (1)

Weather Blog Entry January 3rd, next storm?

O.K., I have been receiveing comments concerned with saying things like "interesting", and "wild January", and then not expanding. Tonight, I will expand.

Remember, I believe we are in a 54 day cycle, give or take a couple of days as we cycle through. This is the second full cycle and the pattern is extremely similar to the one we had in November. It is almost identical. When we made our winter forecast on November 10th I had the feeling it would be a winter of NOTHING. And, then 5 days after I made the forecast the pattern suddenly became more active for about a month. Well, guess what? Don't we have that same feeling now, like nothing is going to happen. There is no hope? Yes, we do, because the computer models are making the same mistakes and it appears that there will be no winter the rest of the season. But, THIS IS JUST THE BLAH part of the pattern and we must not panick.

The ECMWF and UKMET models have been converging on a possible storm Monday or Tuesday. The GFS is coming closer, but the flow is just too fast and it may dampen out this first storm. This Monday storm is right on schedule with 54 to 55 days ago on November 15th when we had a rain changing to snow event. Then, two weeks later a major storm, which would then occur around January 22nd give or take a couple of days. After this the very cold weather should return, and I expect it to around January 27th or so.

So, be patient. Even though the pattern is cycling, the exact same SPECIFIC events rarely repeat. Let's take the ride and I promise the weather will become more exciting very soon. After the new data comes out I will add another paragraph and throw in a map or two.

Click to enlarge (above is the GFS showing the mirror image of the storm 55 days earlier) It is now in the forecast. We'll See.....

Gary

Posted by at 9:15 PM | Comments (2)

Changing Pattern

I am back from vacation. And the weather pattern is still fascinating. I am more convinced now that we are in a 54 day cycle, give or take a couple of days. The warmer stretch that began before Christmas continues and fits right in with the cycle.

Now, what is next? More tomorrow as I have more time to analyze the data, but below is the latest 500 mb forecast by the GFS for Sunday evening. A fast, energetic, flow is developing. We should see some interesting weather soon.

click to enlarge

Gary

Posted by at 10:30 PM | Comments (5)

Jackpot!

TODAY'S NUMBERS:
HIGH: 62
LOW: 39

Do you believe it?? We hit 62 degrees today for our official afternoon high! Do you realize that we have hit 62 degrees on the dot on New Year's Day for THREE years in a row? I am sorry... I just find that completely amazing...

I hope you got to enjoy the wonderful weather today! Gary took me and my husband to see the Chiefs/Bengals game... so we were out in it all afternoon! A great day, and a great game!! :)

So what is next? Well, you know the 60s won't last long, as it is January and all! We actually have a storm moving through the area tonight. It is bringing light rain to parts of Kansas... and that will move into Missouri overnight, too. Here is the latest look at the storm on radar tonight:

Click to enlarge

Notice that the heaviest rain is NOT here, but to our north. We will see light rain showers tonight and for the first part of Monday. You will also notice COLDER conditions Monday... with gusty winds and the clouds will hang around, too. A big change from what we saw today!

And if you missed it last night at 10pm... Meteorologist Jeff Penner has married the love of his life! Here is a picture of the weather team with Jeff's beautiful bride, Edi:

We wish Jeff and Edi nothing but the best as they begin their new life together! :)
Have a happy 2006, everyone! Gary is back tomorrow!
Jamie

Posted by at 7:59 PM | Comments (1)