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A Weekend Warm-Up!
Good afternoon, bloggers!
We started the day pretty GRAY with cloudy skies. But we are starting to see signs of improvement, as the clouds are becoming more broken. This will continue as we head into the afternoon... and the sunshine will help temperatures warm into the lower to mid 40s.
You can see from the title of this blog entry that there is a WARM UP in the forecast for this weekend! It looks like it will be a pretty good one, with highs in the 60s on Saturday... and close to 60 degrees on Sunday. Here is a look at this morning's NAM run, showing the warmer air building in:
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The weekend will be dry... even though ANOTHER surface low will approach us on Sunday. I cannot count how many of these storms have looked exactly the same (dry!) as they pass through Kansas City:
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Yawn!
But there is something exciting showing up. The storm we have been talking about all WEEK is now showing up on the GFS and the NAM. It fits right in with the Lezak Weather Pattern Theory... we expected it to be there... and it is! It is lacking moisture, but we will continue to watch it. Here it is on the GFS:
Click to enlarge
Have a great TGIF!!
Jamie
Posted by at January 6, 2006 12:24 PM
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Cudos to LEZAK'S weather pattern theory!! It was a little touch and go around the first week of December, but has fallen right into place since then. If the pattern follows though, looks like a cold and maybe a snow event (?) the last couple of days in January. When will Gary update his theory through February?
GARY:
Isn't it amazing? A few weeks ago, Gary was showing us the pattern... and we knew there would be a storm around the 8th of Jan. Sure enough, the storm eventually started showing up on the models! It looks like it will go too far south for us this time... but it is amazing that it is THERE! :) Now we have to watch out for another storm around the 20th!
Jamie
Posted by: Gary Brenner at January 6, 2006 2:10 PM
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Gary,
I want an update on the mon/tues storm. It looks to me that it is becoming more impresive. what do you think?
Andy
ANDY:
The Monday/Tuesday storm is going too far south to bring us any big chance of rain/snow. It is actually lacking moisture, too. We're dropping our chances to only 20%. But by the looks of things right now... we will probably just get cloud cover!
Jamie
Posted by: Andy at January 6, 2006 4:21 PM
Definitely a YAWN - ad infinitum, ad nauseum.
You might (or might not) recall an earlier blog from this dog about the long-range progs of the GFS showing something around the 5th (WRONG!) but another item around mid-month - 12-13th??? If the GFS is actually correct, this somewhat verifies with that long-range suggestion that something might swing thru by next Friday. The only fly in the ointment, and probably the killer for much of anything I suppose, would be the lack of moisture.
Still, it could be worse, I could still be living in Oklahoma - I recall watching, hearing and feeling flames and their heat in Mustang, SW of OKC, as a grass fire swept thru a field towards our housing addition. There I was feebly trying to use a water hose to wet my grass - I might as well tried to kill an elephant with my bare hands!!!
Later,
Dog
DOG:
Looking ahead to Friday the 13th (ooooh... freaky!)... there IS a chance of rain/snow showing up on the GFS. It is still a long way away... but I have added it to the forecast.
Have you seen a watch map lately? Practically the ENTIRE state of OK is under a Red Flag Warning! Most of Texas is, too. It has just been soooo dry there... so yes, it could be worse for us. In fact, the Red Flag Warnings now extend into Southwest Missouri... yikes.
Jamie
Posted by: StormDog at January 6, 2006 8:21 PM
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