« Weird weather pattern alert! |
Main
| Warm weather to continue? »
Arctic air watch!
Good morning. It is Tuesday morning, January 24th. Confidence has grown this morning concerning a cold outbreak that a lot of you are actually hoping for. Look below:

Click above to enlarge

Click above to enlarge
Above, you are looking at the 300 and 336 hour prognostications of last nights GFS model. This may be just fantasy, but it fits. And, the GFS has been advertising this change in various forms for about 10 days, and so far nothing has come close to this in reality. So, confidence is still low, but growing. And, there is finally some indication that the other models are hinting at this change. So, I am issuing an "Arctic Air Watch" for the first week of February. Let's see what happens. But, the flow on the top map shows the amplifying ridge in the perfect position to develop a true Arctic airmass and bring it into the United States. It also shows a developing storm which you can clearly see on the second map which shows the surface conditions and a very cold airmass settling in for the long haul.
Below, is this weekend's storm. Almost every computer model now has this very wet looking system. So, our boring weather may be about to take a LONG break. I need it! Let us know if you are ready for more cold and snow.

Have a great day. More on Wednesday. Let's see if these are trends towards excitement, or just fantasy island.
Gary
Posted by at January 24, 2006 6:06 AM
****************
So Gary, can you please hold off on the cold weather and snow until after the 3rd of February please? We had a nice little fire back in December and have the house almost fixed, thanks to the nice weather we have had so far. The roof is supposed to be replaced on the 1st and they are putting the siding up now. If you could just hold onto that cold and snow till after the 3rd, then I should be ready. Could you do that for us please? Thank you.
KEVIN:
There are a lot of positive things that are coming out of our mild winter. Ahead-of-schedule construction projects are one of them! Glad to hear you are on your way to getting things back to normal.
But you can bet that snow removal companies are REALLY hurting right now... wishing for cold air and snow.
You might be ok by Feb 3... we will see. Colder air is on the way. Check back over the weekend!
Jamie
Posted by: Kevin at January 24, 2006 6:47 AM
*****************
We really need some snow! I love snow and hopefully it will come along with theis artic air blast.
JUSTIN:
No snow this week, but maybe once the colder air moves in! I know a lot of you have your fingers crossed!
Jamie
Posted by: Justin Payne at January 24, 2006 8:53 AM
*********
Is there a good chance of having one more heavy snow fall like the one from December in February? I really want some snow. I'm keeping my fingers crossed. Thanks
Ann,
Keep the fingers crossed. There is hope, but we must get the Arctic air down here. We should know a lot more by the end of the week.
Gary
Posted by: Ann at January 24, 2006 9:32 AM
*********
I am a nbc action news - weather devotee.
A collegue of mine is skeptical about your three degree warranty.
Can you elaborate? Specifically, what temperature value do you utilize in computing whether you are within the three degrees?
I think it is the high temperature from the news cast the night before. My collegue thinks it is the high temperature for that mornings news cast.
Thank you!
Shannon,
We use the forecast that I make on the 10 PM newscast the night before.
Gary
Posted by: Shannon at January 24, 2006 11:27 AM
*****************
Sorry but I grew up in Phoenix and Southern California so I am quite happy not having ice and snow. But just in case we get a long spell of artic air I have March spring training in AZ where it ought to be close to 80 to look forward to. Meanwhile I am enjoying the mild weather.
Jeri,
Don't put away your winter coat yet.
Gary
Posted by: Jeri Correll at January 24, 2006 12:29 PM
*************
My gas bill prefers warm weather. I love snow, however. THIS WIND IS FREAKY! I still think this seems unusual and have heard others mention the same. Is there anywhere on the web to find the peak wind gust of the day??
Thanks,
Tim
Tim,
You can go to the National Weather Service website in Pleasant Hill, MO. Click on the forecast for your county and then click on 3 day history. It will give you the wind gusts for every hour.
Gary
Posted by: Tim at January 24, 2006 12:59 PM
**********
I sure am. I am SO Ready for SNOW!!! 4 inches this season so far is not enought. LET IT SNOW!!! When do you think our next chance of snow will be?
John,
WISHING FOR SNOW!!!
John,
Let's see how things set up. Last year our last snow was on February 8th. Let's hope it doesn't end that early this year. I still think we will have some good chances within two weeks.
Gary
Posted by: John Moon III at January 24, 2006 3:35 PM
************
Dear Gary, I have lived in the area for about 4 years now. I was wondering if Jan. is usually a dry month? It gets frustrating seeing the storms come by and blow apart..ha! Thanks for the answer..
Randy Senior
Pomona, Ks
Randy,
It depends on the weather pattern, but it is usually dry during the month of January. We average less than 2 inches of rain and when it is dry it is really dry.
Gary
Posted by: Randy Senior at January 24, 2006 6:23 PM
*********
I am soooo ready for some more snow. Bring it on!!!
Marlina,
I am too, but winter will fade away if the cold air doesn't get here soon. I think it will during the first week of February.
Gary
Posted by: Marlina at January 24, 2006 6:58 PM
******************
Hi - looked at the latest GFS 1-24 1800 - didn't see a very-compact dynamite system for Saturday - GFS only gave us what looked like a slight amount of precip - or am I going crazy? I didn't notice a strong vort-maxes to cause lift, unless the strong SW flow enhances the Gulf (if it is there this time) to produce isentropic lift, that one can't really see on one of these charts.
Dog
Storm Doggy,
Energy comes across the west coast Thursday. Let's hope it gets organized into a storm this weekend. You are correct on the latest data showing a very disorganized system. But, the pattern may be about to go through a MASSIVE transition. Let's see how this storm reacts to the changes.
Gary
Posted by: stormdog at January 24, 2006 7:00 PM
*************
Dear Gary, we have a possiblity of cold weath the first of Feb, i will be in So Cal the first part of Feb.. figures..ha! What part of the So Cal do you come from? I grew up in the Lakewood/Long Beach area. The weather is pretty boring. I kid my wife that I moved to Kansas to get some serious weather.. not the la stuff..ha!
Randy
Pomona
Randy,
We are just in a very bad and boring weather pattern this season. Hopefully next year will be more in line with what we both want.
I am from the San Fernando Valley, born in the west valley, Canoga Park.
Gary
Posted by: randy senior at January 24, 2006 9:56 PM
*******
Gary,
What does your weather model say about our summer weather? We really enjoyed the cool, wet summer of 2004. We had new grass planted that year and it did fantastic! Will we have a repeat this year?
Dwight,
I haven't really figured out the summer pattern yet. Remember, we believe this pattern that is cycling now continues into at least the first half of summer. What does this mean? I will have to do an analysis soon and try to make a prediction.
Gary
Posted by: Dwight at January 25, 2006 3:51 PM
***************
Your theory on the cycle has definately proven true. You predicted a warm winter with 11" of snow. My hat is off to you. You were right on before you went to Washington and before you had your models for this winter. But you did have your theory and it is holding water. Great JOB!!
Gary,
Thanks! I should never have updated the forecast after our 11 inch snowstorm in December. We are actually cycling through what set up in October and November. It is the first time I ever made an update and I may never do it again.
We are sitting at 11.9" for the season and there is no sign of any snow at this moment.
Gary
Posted by: Gary at January 25, 2006 4:00 PM
***********
If you get a chance, check out my web weather page. Make sure you scroll down through the records page.
http://garybrenner.com/page5.html
Gary
I will go and look at it.
Gary
Posted by: Gary at January 25, 2006 4:22 PM
I am also wondering what this summer will be like. What was the summer like following that other unseasonably warm winter record we broke?
I hope this warm winter doesn't mean a terribly hot summer!
Myra,
This winter pattern will move into the summer then fall apart. So, we will see.
Gary
Posted by: Myra at January 30, 2006 5:30 PM
|