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Is this still the same pattern?
Jamie answered a comment from one of you. I am being critisized for "flip flopping" on my initial forecast of the winter. Our first forecast came out around November 10th. Then we made an update in December based on what we saw. The updated forecast is really not that different from our initital forecast. Specifically, it will seem that way as we went from forecasting 11 inches of snow to 26 inches of snow. And right now we are sitting on that 11 inches. So, what happened?
Remember my theory: The weather pattern sets up between October 10th and November 10th and then begins cycling. Our forecast on November 10th is our initial guess at what the pattern is. But, we really gain confidence after a first cycle of the pattern has completed. This first cycle completed in Decmeber and we made our update. So, now I feel we KNOW the pattern. And this extended warm spell fits right into the November part of the cycle. Which means the cold part of the pattern, which we did not see when we made our November 10th forecast, will likely return before the end of the month.
So, we have not flip flopped, and I am not trying to cover our you know whats. We tell you what we think will happen, and my "discovery" of my weather pattern theory has worked again this year.
Please open your mind to this thinking.
Now as I am writing this new data is coming in. The NAM now has the storm and the other models are even more impressive. Below you can see the latest 30 hour GFS valid Monday evening at 6 PM. We can see the upper low now just developing. This will likely close off into full circulation and then pull in some Gulf moisture. A lot has to happen, but this is the storm that we have been tracking for a long time. Will it go by unnoticed, or will we have an interesting Tuesday? Most likely it produces precipitation, but south of us. More later....
Gary
Posted by at January 8, 2006 3:39 PM
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I read some where that our next big winter weather event would'nt be a snow storm but an ice storm. Do you think this could hold true?
Aaron,
I know where you read that. Well, you can't rule out an ice storm. But, there has not even been anything close to us setting up for an ice storm this season. I am expecting some chances for snow soon. Let's wait and see as the weather pattern gets more active.
Gary
Posted by: Aaron at January 8, 2006 5:18 PM
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Hi Gary:
Dog agrees - the pattern should generate weather that would seem to be completely opposite from the other half of its entity!!! When, well, that is the question, but we aren't gonna get out of this winter that easy, methinks!!!
Time will tell, but I believe overall in your theory - minor variations can occur and one can't be held to exact totals or predictions, even the best weathercaster! Weather forecasting is part exact science, inexact science (hunches, gut-feelings) and art (appreciating overall patterns).
I have been a storm-chaser and weather-buff since I grew up in New England, back in the 1960s and 70s (that dates me, doesn't it???)
Later,
Dog
Storm Dog,
It isn't that we are going through any variations or deviations in the pattern. It is fascinating but all of this fits within the overall complex pattern and the more exciting and colder, more energetic part of the pattern is about to return.
Gary
Posted by: StormDog at January 8, 2006 5:38 PM
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Hi guys
The fires are really bad down in south centeral U.S. If this storm on mon-tues produces any precip it should go to them. I was just wondering if this is one of the worst cases for fire in the U.S. that has occured? I also am wondering about friday I hear we have a chance for some snow. I hope we get some snow I really don't like this mild pattern we are in. A while back you told me about a big event that should happen around the 20th or close to the end of the month is that system still there? just wondering. When do you think the weather pattern should get more active for centrl U.S.? I am working on a researh paper for school and I would like to do something on winter storms. Could you give me any suggestions? I figure this would be a good time to learn some aspects on winter storms..you know to help me when I get older and when I get my degree. I am open to suggestions or ideas and I would greatly appricate it if you would suggest/give ideas to me. Tell everyone in the weather center I said hi. John Moon III
p.s. tell Windy and Stormy I said hi
John,
First of all, Windy and Stormy are right next to me and are refusing to eat this morning.
Secondly, an idea for your school paper would be to do research on the October Surprise snowstorm we had. It happened on October 22nd 1996, I think I have the date correct. We had rain changing to snow and lots of it. Or, find another storm to do it on.
Gary
Posted by: John Moon III at January 8, 2006 8:30 PM
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I do not believe you are in any way flip flopping. I just want you to add some weather in the forecast. I think this mild weather has been great, but I need some weather. A big snow storm would be nice. Any way you can make that happen?
Ann
Ann,
There is a storm not only for Tuesday that may bring some rain or snow, bu there is one for Friday. Also, we believe the cold part of the pattern with better snow potential will arrive during the last 5-10 days of this month. We are in for more snow!
Jeff
Posted by: Ann at January 8, 2006 9:20 PM
I completely understand your theory on the current weather pattern. Please know that not all of us criticize you or your job abilities. I will continue to watch your weather forecast daily!
Thanks Stephanie
Posted by: Stephanie at January 8, 2006 10:42 PM
Gary:
I have faith in you and would defend you and your teams forecast anyday!!! Keep up the good work. I expected this warmer than normal air because you told us it would happen. However, I want the cold January air....so bring it on!! :-)
Monica,
Colder air should invade us soon.
Gary
Posted by: Monica at January 8, 2006 10:52 PM
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Gary, I really enjoy this blog and I am very interested in your pattern theory. Keep up the good work! How soon, or if at all, will you have an idea of what our spring and summer might be like?
Brad
Brad,
According to my theory the weather pattern cycles into the summer. So, these storm systems we are having now will likely repeat in some form or another. I am growing in confidence that it will be an active spring. There will likely be some stretches of crazy springtime thunderstorms.
Gary
Posted by: Brad at January 9, 2006 9:26 AM
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Hey Gary,
You're the best there is! Period!
Ron,
Thank you so much! It is 5 AM and I am monitoring this rather exciting weather situation.
Gary
Posted by: Ron at January 9, 2006 1:43 PM
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I see there is a Heavy Snow Warning to the south of kc. What are the chances that we will see some accumulating snows??
Thanks,
Kinley
Kinley,
At this moment, that chances of accumulating snow here are slight. However, the storm is still in the forming stage. A slight turn to the north will put us in a favorable area of heavy snow Tuesday. It is something we will know a lot more by 10 PM, but realistically it may take until morning for us to become 100% confident.
Jeff
Posted by: kinley at January 9, 2006 3:44 PM
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Gary,
What a surprise storm last time I saw a weather cast they were saying highs in the 40's with no snow for tommorow! Is there any storm on the horizon beyond your seven day that could leave with significant accumlations?
Tim
Tim,
This is no surprise to us as we have been tracking this potential for seven days. Today will be an interesting day. Beyond today, there are many other chances and this will likely be a wild month of ups, downs, snow, rain, wind, and crazy weather. I love it!
Gary
Posted by: Tim at January 9, 2006 8:50 PM
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