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Look ahead to FRIGID?
What a day! One of the toughest forecasts is to predict rain, sleet, freezing rain, thunderstorms, and snow. And for it to happen. All of these precipitation types occurred, and there were thunderstorms in the area. Glen, one of our spotters, reported thunder earlier today and 3 1/2 inches of snow in Trenton. The storm is now over, and I am glad. It wasn't that impressive and I am worn out. It was fun though for a while.
Now, let's look ahead. Below are the 8 PM temperatures in Alaska tonight. A strengthening and growing Arctic airmass continues to build. Only one computer model, GFS, has been advertising this cold air to make it to KC within 10 days. But, I am buying it at this moment and this FITS with the 54 day cycle. We would have a big storm around January 31st if everything lines up. Notice the temperatures 35 to 60 degrees BELOW zero. WATCH OUT!
Click to enlarge
Have a great weekend. We are watching a "surprise" storm that could affect us on Sunday. I will address this tonight, but we will have to watch this closely as it may pass across Oklahoma and Arkansas on Sunday.
Gary
Posted by at January 20, 2006 9:02 PM
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Gary,
You mention the computer models, specifically GFS. Where can one view these online, and what is the range of these models -- i'm guessing from the immediate future (next 6-12 hours) all they way to what, 10 days? 14 days out? I am very excited to see if your 54 day cycle indeed comes thru along with the GFS model and produces some cold weather and a storm in a week and a half!
Thanks,
Tim in Greenwood
TIM:
Here are some websites that you can view model data:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts
http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/model_forecast/global_e.html
http://meteocentre.com/models/modelsukmet.html
We continue to watch next week for the chance of Arctic air!
Posted by: Tim in Greenwood at January 20, 2006 9:34 PM
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Gary,
I believe the 18Z GFS model has the storm that you mentioned at the very end of Janruary. It looks like the models are trying hard to develop a ridge in the Pacific Ocean. Also, what is the record for the longest consecutive days above average in our history? Your weather team is the best.
Devin Kellerman
Devin,
The GFS keeps trying to do exactly what we think should happen, but then it just isn't happening. I still think there is a good chance of a wintery change around February 1st, but confidence is lower right now. The storm generator in the Pacific is so strong it just keeps bringing in storm systems and holding the cold air up north. We will see if it breaks down right on schedule in about 7 or 8 days.
Gary
Posted by: Devin at January 21, 2006 5:14 PM
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I was looking at the GFS model, and it sugested that a storm will develop and be right on top of KC. What do you think of this?
Andy
ANDY:
What time frame are you looking at?
Posted by: Andy at January 21, 2006 9:54 PM
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