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Another Warm One!
TODAY'S NUMBERS:
HIGH: 62
LOW: 31
Once again... we are unseasonably warm today! We officially hit 62 at KCI, and 60 downtown... a good 20 degrees above normal! Do you remember when we first made our winter forecast? We thought it was pretty obvious we would be above normal temperature-wise. Now remember Gary's Weather Pattern Theory. We are in that same part of the pattern now!! Pretty amazing!
So what is heading our way? Would you believe it's another DRY storm? We have seen this over and over the past several weeks... storms tracking RIGHT over us... but lacking MOISTURE. Compare the map below with similar looking maps from recent blog entries:
Click to enlarge
Dry, dry, DRY!
The storm we have been tracking for Monday/Tuesday is still showing up. It's amazing! However, this particualr storm looks like it will track too far south to bring us any precipitaiton. We will likely see clouds from the storm, but that would be about it. Here is the latest model data, to keep you updated:
Click to enlarge
Notice, also, that it is shearing out quite a bit! It is interesting to go back and look at this particular storm on the models over the past few days. You can go back a few blog entries to see when we first started talking about it... and watch how much it changes in a few model runs!
Anyway... under the cloud cover on Monday... we will be COOLER. Then another warm-up for the middle part of the week before another storm moves over us. This would be on FRIDAY... and it could bring us a better chance of precip... maybe even some snow. We will continue to watch it.
Have a good night!
Jamie
Posted by at January 7, 2006 8:17 PM
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Hello you say the storm is tracking to far south for the metro to see any precipitation what about the people in the southern part of the viewing area could we see some precip in Appleton City from this storm
DANIEL:
*Maybe* a 20% chance of rain or snow for you in Appleton City. But the moisture just looks too far south right now.
Jamie
Posted by: Daniel at January 7, 2006 9:01 PM
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Gary,
What is your thinking on that possible friday storm?
Andy
Andy,
We must wait for new data this week. But, at least the weather pattern is getting more active.
Gary
Posted by: Andy at January 7, 2006 9:49 PM
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Jamie:
Lets See, How do I explain this.I do not have any Collage to Say. I do know that Normal I beleive that For every Thousand feet you go up the Atmosphere coold something like 5.4 degrees. It is when you get heat rising with humidity per thousand you go that clouds develop leading to Storm formation. Here's the thing. We have had heat rising up a few thousand but, the humidity is on the dry side allowing only a few low level sparatic clouds to form. What I guess Im saying is that the VIL's are not high enough to rise up against cooler air scatering cloud materail and enough instability to form Storms. Now also the norm is for the cooler air to squeeze out any available moisture in the form of rain or snow. Now if we can tap into some good moist air it just might do something, but I feel there is not enough VIL to do much. Sorry Im just Frustrated right now. I have the basics of Storm smarties but not enough to get a Job somewhere. Im just about ready to give up getting a storm job somewhere. It is Frustrating. I just think the way the Jet is we will form over us again and will get going away from us again. The flow is not right.
Steve Newport
DeSoto Kansas
Posted by: Steve Newport at January 7, 2006 9:51 PM
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I remember Gary's initial winter forecast but I also remember his updated winter forecast. They were nearly oposites of each other. It seems he has himself covered no matter which way the winter goes. So no matter what Gary can say he predicted it. That is not fair to us!! Yes he predicted a milder winter at first I was totally agreeing with that. But we got that one big snow storm and he ran scared predicting more of the same. He should say on air he was wrong about his updated forecast of the winter and say he is going ot go back and stick with his original theory instead of acting like he never made that updated forecast!
HI, LEONARD:
You are right, Gary's updated his winter forecast from ABOVE AVERAGE temps to NEAR AVERAGE temps. Nobody is saying he didn't! :)
What I am saying is this MILD part of the weather pattern is WHY he initially forecasted the above average temps. But then things changed, right? Well... we expect them to change again!!! So enjoy it while the nice weather is here!
Thanks for blogging!
Jamie
Posted by: Leonard at January 8, 2006 5:58 AM
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