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A Storm Tonight?
Something interesting has been happening over the past few model runs. We are seeing a trend to deepen tonight's storm. It might look slight, but it is significant to our forecast. See if you can pick it out. Below are the past three NAM runs, starting with Wednesday evening, and ending with this morning:
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See how the vort max is right over us on this run? Now look what happens to the midnight run:
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Now it has our storm JUST southwest of KC... in Southeast Kansas. It deepens even MORE on this morning's NAM:
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We have increased our chance of precipitation overnight into Friday morning because of this. At this point, it looks like we could see a mixed-bag of precip... rain/sleet/snow. Gary will update the situation tonight on NBC Action News at 5, 6 and 10. Be sure to tune in!
In the meantime... enjoy a BEAUTIFUL day ahead of the storm!! Expect highs near 60 and plenty of sunshine!! :)
Jamie
Posted by at January 12, 2006 8:50 AM
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Hello Jamie,
The storm coming in tonight,are you expecting any accumlating snow fall, or any ice buildup, with you saying snow,sleet and rain I was just wondering. Also is it going to be a big storm, like a 6 hour storm or any thing like that.
Thanks for your time,
Anna
HI, ANNA: (I love your name, by the way!) :)
The latest data has us starting with rain, and then mixing with/switching to sleet or snow by the morning. At this point, it doesn't look like much accumulation, as temperatures should be just above freezing. Gary will update the forecast this evening, though... be sure to watch!
Jamie
Posted by: Anna at January 12, 2006 10:16 AM
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Hey Gary, I seen your 5 pm weather and seen that appleton city could see snow tomorrow morning and it could last a little bit. Are my eyes deceiving me or is this true. Any accumulations. Also you are the best in forecasting you were the closest i seen about the last storm your awesome.
DANIEL:
Thank you for the nice comments. The storm did not bring much precipitation to our viewing area, but the storm is intensifying to our East... bringing some snow and even some severe weather to people there.
Posted by: Daniel at January 12, 2006 5:36 PM
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Gary, I see a lot of (well deserved) positive comments about you on the blog. I must add Brett and Jamie are also doing an awesome job as well. I hope your team stays together for a long time but if one of you has to leave, I hope it is for a better position and a significant carreer advancement, though he or she will be missed greatly. I live for the weekend and plan activities according to ya'lls forcast. This Sunday I will be outside doing something!!?? I may have to take a TV outside to watch football and BBQ, at least I won't have to cut the grass. Thanks for the enthusiasm and accurate forcasts.
Jim,
Thank you and I will make sure everyone gets to see this. Sunday is looking good, but we may end up having a lot of high clouds.
Gary
Posted by: Jim Yates at January 13, 2006 11:36 AM
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I am currently working on my researh paper. I was hoping Gary,Jamie,and Jeff could give me some quotes I could put in my paper on winter storms. Ex.. forecasting winter weather is so difficult because... or you cant rely on all forecast models completly because... I would just like to use some quotes in my researh paper on "spice it up" lol :) I will be looking foward to your quotes. :)
John,
Ask us this in an email and we will try to get you some quotes.
Gary
Posted by: John Moon III at January 13, 2006 3:04 PM
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