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Rain and Colder
Good morning! I am sitting here in my home office Forecast Center this morning, 5:55 AM, as usual. And, I am on the radio with Newsradio 980 KMBZ and 106.5 WDAF in just a few minutes.
The data is MUCH MORE EXCITING than yesterday morning.
The latest trend is back to the Arctic and snowier scenario for the first half of February. It will be amazing if it develops because the flow across the Pacific Ocean is so strong. This is why the computer models are having such a hard time. By around February 3rd or 4th the flow is forecasted to amplify and get out of control.
Above, you can see the flow getting out of control. The models will have a very hard time with this amplification, and confidence is still a bit low. But, the trend is back to cold for the first half of February.
In the mean time a storm is approaching us this weekend and we may get some nice rainfall amounts Saturday. Then, Sunday another storm develops. Snow showers are possible Monday, but I doubt there will be any chance of accumulation. Let's look at the new data as it rolls out because things can change fast. A few days ago this storm was not very impressive.
Gary
Posted by at January 27, 2006 7:06 AM
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Hey Gary,
We all love your passion for weather here. This pattern has been very boring. Please come out with some new daaaaata. I would like to order 2-4" for Sunday.
Dave,
No snowstorm out of this one, but it is looking more likely that we will have about 10 days of winter excitement soon. Hopefully we get one more good snowstorm, or perhaps two.
Gary
Posted by: D. Borland at January 27, 2006 8:25 AM
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Gary,
Very exciting! Are we talking potential for temps in early Feb. below freezing, or possibly those approaching the teens and single digits?
Thanks!
Tim,
It is the same pattern from early in December, and we dropped to below zero back then. But, the same specific results may or may not repeat. We will know more in a few days.
Gary
Posted by: Tim in Greenwood at January 27, 2006 8:35 AM
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Gary,
I'm so glad that there are so many other weather geeks out there like me. I'm such a nut about it here at my office that they call me Chief Meteorologist of the 4th floor.
Looking for some exciting weather in the next 10 days.
Jennifer
Jennifer,
We are in this together. It is looking VERY exciting within 10 days.
Gary
Posted by: Jennifer at January 27, 2006 5:10 PM
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Woah there....We are supposed to fly out on Feb 3rd (evening) to Texas...is there a chance for inclement weather?
Anne,
I think it will be two days later before anything happens, but it is changing fast.
Gary
Posted by: Anne Jackson at January 28, 2006 2:26 AM
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Hi Gary - well, Blue Springs (as oft happens) really got miserably missed by the rain etc... on this one - I could see the radar at 0900 this morning, with a nice rain shield north, east and south of us, with a nice slice of dry right over Blue Springs - you can see this by the precip totals that fell - Olathe vs Lees Summit etc... The stuff this evening is quick to die out, so this storm certainly won't make my highlights of the winter, if indeed, other than the Dec storm, there have been any. A look at the GFS shows a couple of days of a possible Arctic intrusion, but little in the way of a dynamic system. There is one sharp little wave that moves well south of us in about 200+ hours or so, but does little here. So perhaps the YAWNS will continue ad infinitum. Hopefully you will prove right and SOMETHING will happen, but I am becoming increasingly skeptical, I am afraid.
Anyhow, cheers for now,
Stormdog
HEY, STORMDOG...
Completely off the subject... but have you read the book "Marley and Me"?? I know you have dogs... one of them is part lab, right? This is a great book... you'll laugh, you'll cry (at least I did)... and it will make you fall even more in love with the dogs in your life.
Jamie
Posted by: stormdog at January 28, 2006 6:55 PM
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Hey was just wondering about the late week storm. Is it looking more or less impressive and what do the models say about the artic air, when will it get here if ever. thanks you guys are the best.
HI, DANIEL:
No Arctic air showing up just yet. It will be colder next weekend, though. As for the storm... right now it looks like it will be tracking way to our south, but it is somthing worth watching!
Jamie
Posted by: Daniel at January 28, 2006 8:26 PM
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