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Snow, snow, snow, is showing up?
Tonight, I will be presenting my weather pattern theory to the local chapter of the American Meteorological Society. There are a lot of skeptics out there, but we feel we have made a major discovery so it is time to share. I went to Washington D.C. in August, and I am now doing the presentation to a smaller group tonight. I do plan on working on getting the theory published later this year and presenting it at the big conference in San Antonio next January.
Anyway, the latest data is doing EXACTLY what we thought it would. Since we believe we are now in a 60 to 62 day cycle this cold change and potentially snowier pattern is RIGHT on schedule. Most forecasters are tied to the computer models, but we have the theory and as tough as the past few weeks have been to wait, the waiting is likely over. A very similar set up to December is happening right before our eyes. It will turn much colder soon, perhaps as cold as it got in December. And snow has suddenly shown up for Sunday night and Monday. Confidence on the snow is extremely low at this time, but confidence in the cold is extremely high.
Today, we set the all time January record. 2006 is the warmest January in Kansas City recorded history. Get ready for a cold change.
Gary
Posted by at January 31, 2006 12:14 PM
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The GFS may be overdone regarding the amplitude of the wave on Monday. A fast northwest flow is likely but the main storm track may be north of here where the snow chances look better. The 12z and 00Z ECMWF has been a more consistent model the past 6 weeks and has outperformed the GFS with far fewer abrupt "shifts" in the overall trends. It does look colder with closer to average temperatures...with a few days of highs in the 30s. I would like to see your long range pattern discovery theory in the form of a paper detailing your conclusions. I have known since my college days 30 years ago that the North American upper air pattern usually cycles through a 6-10 week period but to forecast specific weather conditions for a localized area that far out may be asking a little much given that a slight adjustment in the storm track would make a huge difference in the resulting local weather. Will see what you have to say. Thanks.
Bill,
I must disagree on your assessment of the ECMWF of late. The GFS is the only model advertising this shift to a blocking pattern in the eastern Pacific. The other models caught on much later. But, this is just the last 10 days. I wouldn't say the GFS has done well before this.
My theory, as we learn more, does help. For example, we knew that this shift to the blocking pattern would happen. And, we knew it would happen during the first week of February. It will repeat again towards the end of March or early April. And, the theory helps in other ways too. Your assessment on predicting storm systems or a specific result in actual weather 3 weeks to 12 weeks down the road is CORRECT. I do believe that we can use my theory to predict a high likelihood of a storm within a few days of a certain date though. And, it helps when a storm is forecasted 5 days away. I will have a very good idea of where the storm will track and how it will evolve. So, I can look at a 3 or 5 day forecast by the GFS and say that does or doesn't fit. And, this would give us an advantage in forecasting the event.
Does this make sense? There is so much more to this.
Gary
Posted by: Bill Barlow at January 31, 2006 2:50 PM
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Hey I just wanted to say im glad the cold air is on the way. How good is the chance for snow on sunday night for the southern part of the viewing area or will it be a more northern track? Is there any big snowstorms on the way anytime soon. You guys and girl are the best keep up the good work.
DANIEL:
Thanks for being such a loyal blogger with us! I blogged about the Sunday/Monday storm this morning. It is setting up to bring us a chance of snow at this point, but the moisture isn't the best. We will continue to watch it closely as we go through the next few days.
Jamie
Posted by: Daniel at January 31, 2006 4:50 PM
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Good luck Gary. Ben Franklin's 300th birthday is this month. You know: the inventor of weather prediction, ie 'Poor Richard's Almanac'. Are you about to unveil something as significant? Make a good showing.
Tim
TIM:
Thank you for your nice comments. The presentation went well!
Posted by: Tim at January 31, 2006 7:02 PM
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Yep, the last GFS bears out your thoughts - flow right out of the NW Territories and the Yukon. Unfortunately, no major system is in the run, just a huge vortex over the Great Lakes, which appears anchored. This should give the purveyors of Natural Gas a nice opportunity to rake the public...again. Thankfully we had new insulation blown in the attic, and thankfully it at least has be a warm, if boring January.
Later,
dog
Stormdog:
It has been nice to save some money this winter, but we are about to see a colder change!
Posted by: stormdog at January 31, 2006 9:24 PM
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Do you see a major snow storm showing up in the near future? Do you think we will have a repeat of early Decembers snowfall anytime soon?
-Benjamin-
BENJAMIN:
No *major* snowstorm is showing up at this point, but we do have a couple of snow *chances* in the forecast. One would be Friday night into Saturday... and the more impressive one would be Sunday night into Monday. We will have to wait and see how it sets up...
Jamie
Posted by: Benjamin Tracy at January 31, 2006 9:35 PM
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