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 January 16, 2006

Tracking an end of the week storm?

Monday's Numbers: High: 49 Low: 33


Good afternoon everyone! This is absolutely fascinating as we continue to go through this 54 to 55 day cycle. The storm at the end of the week must be watched very carefully. If we can get the upper low to track south of Kansas City we would end up with a major snowstorm. ONE BIG PROBLEM with this, however. The last time this storm occurred, 55 days ago, it formed into an upper low and tracked just north of KC. If this happens again we would end up with rain, thunderstorms, and very little snow. And, the rain and thunderstorms would be suspect given the time of the year. I favor the repeat track of dumping snow on NW Kansas and not here. But, we can hope.

After this goes by a very cold pattern may set up, just like it did in early December. More tomorrow.

Gary

Posted by at January 16, 2006 4:34 PM

Comments

*********
Gary
The North Atlantic Oscillation shows signs of trending negative and the Arctic Oscillation is also forecasted to become negative. This could mean colder air down the road east of the Rockies.
I know that the northern plains have had record breaking warm weather so far this month and the warmth is everywhere. Shades of La Nina?

Devin Kellerman

Devin,

La Nina has popped up and is growing as a weak La Nina so far. But, La Nina and the other ocean oscillations only influence the pattern that already exists. Arctic air is building in Alaska and northern Canada and it is likely going to seep into the U.S. in a week or two. It has NOTHING to do with the oscillations. It is just part of this pattern we are in.

Gary

Posted by: Devin Kellerman at January 16, 2006 4:47 PM

**************
It's so cool to see a weatherman that gets as excited about snowstorms as we do! It's obvious you enjoy what you do. Keep up the great job!

Marlina,

Thank you! I do get excited about snow. I think it is the most fascinating weather possible. And as frustrating as it is to forecast snow it still ends up rewarding when it falls. It is so rare. We do get our one or two per winter. But, I want more.

Gary

Posted by: Marlina at January 16, 2006 7:23 PM

Gary,

I just looked at the most recent data for that fri/sat. storm, and it looks pretty impresive. What do you think about this? I really want to get major snowstorm! If it does track to the south of Kc do you think it will be a major snwstorm? Thanks.

Andy

Andy,

Right now it looks like the storm will track just north of here. However, only a slight shift south and we are in it. Whoever is in it, a lot of snow will likely fall.

Gary

Posted by: Andy at January 16, 2006 9:39 PM

**************
I just dont see it happening. Nothing is going to change until this Jet stream Straitens out. That is why Oklahoma and Texas are having fires. The jet will just not allow much of anything to gell South and west of Goodland Kansas to Ohmaha Nebraska to Des Moines south and to near Columbia Missouri and south along basicly the Mississippi River. This cause Storm centers to be forced upwards along the Jet and then the Storm System explode violently just to our east because of the Southward drive of the Jet along the Mississippi river. I belive that this Jet formation was formed because of 2 Ice storms. Dallas and parts of Oklahoma and Arkansas had an Ice Storm Late in November. North Carolina also has had an Ice Storm. Oh Well no one will LISTEN. Our May 4th Tornado outbreak I think was set up by an Ice Storms that we had and also Ohmaha Nebraska got up to 90 degrees in early March. This set up the Playing feild boundries for The normal Spring Dynanamics to Mesh togather. Oh well Its just an interesting Theory Im forming.


Steve Newport
DeSoto Kansas

Steve,

I am listening. But, I have to 100% disagree. Your ice storm theory has no possibility of being valid. This season's icestorms, as few as there have been, have no bearing on what will happen in the future with one exception. The weather pattern that caused the ice storms is still cycling. So, whatever is happening has everything to do with the pattern we are in and nothing to do with the ice storms that occurred. I can show you the weather pattern that set up in 2002-2003 that ended up bringing our May 4th outbreak. We had a similar set up to that week of May many times through the winter. And, it didn't matter if there was an ice storm or not. So, once again. You should abandon this ice storm theory and move on to something else. Try to grasp my weather pattern theory.

Gary


Posted by: Steve Newport at January 16, 2006 9:40 PM

 
 

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