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Warm weather to continue?
Very sad weather news this morning. And, let me begin by saying it may makes sense. Here is what I am seeing this early Thursday morning.
The latest computer model runs are NOT showing the Arctic air potential that has been showing up. Only one computer model has been advertising the potential for cold. The GFS! And this model has now completely backed off, however it is just one run of the model. Why would I even believe this GFS model? The pattern it was predicting fit like a glove with the pattern that had occurred in early December when we turned cold. But, the December part of our pattern developed due to a split flow that had formed due to an amplification of the overall pattern. This was being advertised to repeat within a week, but the October and early November version is what may be repeating. I am rather shocked at this latest trend, but really not surprised at all. The skeptics to my weather pattern theory could have a field day with this, which is fine with me because this warmer scenario, and the potential colder scenario still completely fits within the theory and the cycle we are now repeating over and over again. It will come down to how much the flow amplifies. I know where it is going to amplify, north and northwest of Montana, but will it get out of control.
We made our winter forecast on November 10th and at that time we believed it would almost be no winter at all. I even stated "we could have the lowest amount of snow ever in a season". And, we were expecting anywhere from 7 inches to 15 inches for the entire season. Then, we made our adjustment in the winter forecast and may or may not have made the wrong call. It will depend on the amplification of the overall pattern during the first week of February.
The weather pattern that set up between October 10th and November 10th showed very little chance of it turning cold. And, with the "storm generator" over the Pacific not budging, the cold air would be held up in Canada with the exception of an occasional break through and weakening of the storm generator. This was our forecast and it is pretty much happening as we wait for the next break down of the northern Pacific "Storm Generator".
We must watch the developments in the next two weeks. Will it be the late October and early November version of the pattern (the first cycle), or will it be the late November and December part of the pattern (the first full cycle, or second cycle really)? The trend is for the warmer version. But, don't give up yet.
Will we have another winter storm this season? SUDDENLY ONE IS TRYING TO SHOW UP FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. Otherwise we really need to get some cold air down here and we will know by February 10th if it has been tapped.
More later. I will let you know if these trends continue.
Gary
Posted by at January 26, 2006 6:18 AM
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What about the long range precipation forecast? Will a dry winter lead to a drier than normal spring?
Thanks
Doug
Doug,
A dry winter doesn't necessarily mean a dry spring, but it could start that way. Once the Gulf of Mexico air makes it northward in May and June the same weather pattern could become wet. At this moment I don't have a strong feeling one way or the other.
Gary
Posted by: Doug at January 26, 2006 7:17 AM
Gary and all, weather can sure be a fickle thing. Weather forcasters, and those of us who enjoy accuracy, must "maintain a rigid state of flexibility" and adjust to a changing environment. Not all of us gets upset when really long predictions and theories do not follow through exactly as planned. We are glad though, that ya'll take the time to explain what is goin on in detail. Just one question for ya, is my grassless back yard in Warrensburg gonna turn to mud this weekend?
Jim,
I am hoping for some rain, but there is nothing organized at all about this storm approaching. It seems to be in many pieces and would not support a soaking rain. Let's see how it organizes.
I have been obsessed with this weather pattern theory, and I just want the weather to be exciting. So, not only am I sad that the cold outbreak is unlikely, but I am more sad about the weather pattern being so boring. I believe the weather pattern is still just cycling through, so the theory still works, but when you project into the long range it is always a guess, but a somewhat calculated one based on something scientific.
Gary
Posted by: Jim Yates at January 26, 2006 7:37 AM
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Oh well there is nothing to worry about, hopefully the Spring will have plenty of exitement if Winter is indeed over. Hopefully one more snow storm, although highly unlikely. Don't kick yourself Gary, you have no control over it.
Later
Kinley
Thanks Kinley! It may still be exciting very soon.
Gary
Posted by: kinley at January 26, 2006 10:56 AM
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Hi Gary!! I agree with Jim...the weather has been crazy over the last year. Look at all the hurricanes we have had. I just hope for a active spring/summer. I, like you, love weather and it fascinates me...but we sure can not control it. Looking forward to hearing what more you have to say. Your still faithful viewer Monica and her girls ages 2 months, 2 and 4!!! Believe me when I say the 2 and 4 year old know who Gary is and when you come on in the evening they yell, "mama Gary is on!!!" Hahh!!
Monica,
Thank you!
Gary
Posted by: Monica at January 26, 2006 12:04 PM
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Gary,
Could the pollen count (or other allergy related counts)in the air possibly be increasing? My allergies have been bothering me all day and I was wondering if the air thinks it is spring already?
Rachel,
I doubt it, but I better check.
Gary
Posted by: Rachel at January 26, 2006 3:44 PM
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You should call this new pattern the San Diego Pattern.
boring, boring, boring!
Dwight,
I agree, and San Diego is the most boring place that I know concerning weather.
Gary
Posted by: Dwight at January 26, 2006 4:39 PM
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Hey was just wondering about the cold air what does it look like now. Is it going to be cold during febuary or warm:(. Another thing im wondering about is the possible snow storm for sunday night is it still showing up and if it happens where might be the best place to see accum. snow from this storm. Your the best
Daniel,
The chance of snow Sunday night and Monday is there, but the storm would need to dig hard and fast to our west. The chance is slim at this moment.
Gary
Posted by: Daniel at January 26, 2006 4:59 PM
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Gary,
I was looking at the latest computer models, the GFS is suggesting a big storm by next sat. What do you think about this? I really wantit to SNOW!
Andy,
Things are changing fast!
Gary
Posted by: Andy at January 26, 2006 6:14 PM
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I was listening to you on 106.5 today 1-1-06
and could not get the adress for the snow poll but I just want to let you know that I have a vote of 6 for more snow .
thanks
loyal listener and watcher lee and family in smithville mo .
LEE:
You and Gary both! :) Thanks for listening/watching!
Jamie
Posted by: Lee at February 1, 2006 10:50 AM
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