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Winter's return.....we keep waiting?
http://kshb.dayport.com/launcher/150225/
Go to the link above by copy and then paste it into your browser. It is our winter forecast that we made back on November 10th. Based on my theory we were very concerned that this winter would be very warm with little chance of snow and cold. I thought that the "storm generator" out in the Pacific would hold up the Arctic air in Alaska and Canada. This is exactly what has happened.
With this said, we also made an adjustment to the winter forecast in December as we were going through an extremely cold, and unexpected twist to the overall pattern. I thought that if this part of the pattern returned that we would have another cold stretch and likely very similar to the December 17 day stretch of cold.
Now, we wait for this part of the cycle to return, and RIGHT ON SHEDULE, it is showing up and this time the beginning is less than one week away. The same pattern that set up in December is setting up again and it will turn colder. In December, Jeff Penner and I were calling it "United States made" Arctic air because it wasn't a big high pressure area that built in Canada and then blasted us. It was a high pressure area that formed over the U.S. And, this is possible again. For it to be as cold as the last time the "United States made" airmass will likely form again. If it doesn't then the cold might not be as strong as December, but I have a feeling that it will.
Above, is the upperlevel flow at 500 mb and the surface for the same time. This is valid next Monday night as we are finally in the cold air with a storm developing just east of us. This will be an interesting 7 days as it is more likely to occur. It has been driving me a bit nuts. Through this process I have realized that we may be in a 60 to 62 day cycle. We thought it was around 54 to 55 days, but now that the second cycle is approaching its end, and a third cycle is about to begin, it is more likely a 60 to 62 day cycle that will then continue into the summer.
We should have some return to winter very soon. Below is a link to an article that came out Sunday in the Joplin Globe newspaper. Doug Heady worked with us at NBC Action News a few years ago and now he is doing quite well and using our theory. Let me know what you think. Oh, in the article the reporter uses the word "metabolic", she meant milibar.
http://www.joplindaily.com/articles/2006/01/28/news/02headyformula.txt
Gary
Posted by at January 30, 2006 6:39 AM
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Can you give us February weather the way Heady gave it in the article? Thanks
Ann,
This is exactly what we have been talking about for a long time now. And, it is on schedule. But, the usual concerns are: 1) How cold will it be this time? 2) Will there be a storm with the colder air? and 3) How long will it last?
All of these questions will be answered soon. The wait is almost over. But, the same pattern can produce different specific results. Hopefully it will be able to produce the one big snowstorm, but I don't see it yet.
Gary
Posted by: Ann at January 30, 2006 7:20 AM
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Gary my fingers are crossed that we have a big snowstorm. I want one more. Last time I was on crutches and couldn't enjoy it. My little 6 lb dog Hugo(Rat Terrier)jumped into the yard excited to play in the snow and was buried. Scared him so bad that he refused to leave the area we shoveled for him. However, his little sister Libby(Jack Russell Terrier) had a blast. One more good snow and I can get pictures this time.
Ann,
I am hoping for one more snow too. Actually two more is what I am hoping for.
Gary
Posted by: Ann at January 30, 2006 9:39 AM
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Gary,
It seems like the new GFS computer model run has backed off on some of the cold air in the later periods because of the weakening ridge off the Pacific. Hopefully the ridge will be strong and we can get some arctic air. It looks very cold around the Great Lakes though.
Devin Kellerman
Devin,
And, now the new 18Z GFS is cold again. It will be quite interesting to see how this pans out.
Gary
Posted by: Devin Kellerman at January 30, 2006 10:11 AM
I'm not sure I'm as confident as you about the return of colder air. Mind you, I would love to see one last visit by old man winter, I just don't think it will happen. The first outbreak of cold air happened as the sun's angle in the sky was decreasing daily, so there wasn't as much energy to modify the air as it made its way into the area. This time, if the colder air does happen to filter into the area, the sun is staying higher in the sky longer, providing more heating and modifying the air more. Like I said, I would love to see a break of arctic air here, even if its not accompanied by snow (would love to see that too, though). I miss winter and all my friends remaining in Alaska could use a break from the arctic experience themselves.
Mike,
We have had brutal Arctic outbreaks in February and even in March. So, the sun angle can make a difference, but if it is cold enough it won't matter. This doesn't mean I think it will be brutally cold this time around. I am still not convinced it will even get here. But, my confidence level is better than 50%.
Gary
Posted by: Mike from Warrensburg at January 30, 2006 12:59 PM
Gary, glad to see your weather inoformation. Boy this winter has been a twister hasn't it? Do you think it will be past the 10th of Feb before we get the artic air and maybe a snow storm? Some weathermen are saying probably past the 15th of Feb. that will happen. Wish your weather cast was back on the Topeka network. Any chance you can pressure the Topeka cox to put you all back on? Your weather was and still is the best. Regards, Mike Huffman
Mike,
The pattern is still cycling through and the cold part of this pattern is due next week. It should last for 10 to 17 days, and I can't imagine us not having at least one great chance of a storm.
Gary
Posted by: michael huffman at January 30, 2006 1:03 PM
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Hi Gary!!! I saw Doug on TV one day and told my husband, "hey he use to work with Gary" We live down south in Linn County and we get the channel that Doug is on. Pretty cool that you were "a teacher" for him and still to this day he recognizes you for that. You never know what may be said about your theory later in life. Keep up the hard work. Still hoping for the cold weather. I had swarms of bug around my porch light last night....that's craziness for January.
Monica
Monica,
Thank you so much!!!!!
Gary
Posted by: Monica at January 30, 2006 1:59 PM
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Gary
I heard a saying this past weekend about thunder and was wondering if there is any truth to it. The saying goes, if it thunders in January it will frost in May. Have you ever heard that and is there any truth to it?
Jason
We didn't have any thunder that I know of. But there was a tornado near Wichita.
Gary
Gary
Posted by: Jason at January 30, 2006 2:50 PM
How long can Arctic air stay in the KC area. Has there been a year where cold air stayed until late March or April?
-Benjamin-
Benjamin,
Arctic air can blast us as late as early to mid April, but then it is really just a cold wave after that. I don't know of any winter's where it stayed cold all winter long around here.
Gary
Posted by: Ben Tracy at January 30, 2006 3:05 PM
Hi Gary,
I was wondering if the flow shows any signs of amplifying with the cold air. Do you see a high ridge of cold artic air coming down within the next week? The snowfall totals are lower this year than last year by about 2" Could our dry spell break some time soon? It would be great if we could get at least 1 snowstorm. In Clinton,Mo last year we did not have 1 snowstorm just moderate snowfall. You guys had all the snow up north. I do have a question about diverging winds. Remember that I am working on a winter storm research paper. In my research it says that one of the contrubiting formation factors of winter storms are divering winds. Why are these winds so important with the development of winter storms. I also found out that you need a cold area of high pressure north of the low pressure system,is that so the cold air is in place when the storm comes? I really hope we get some snow!!! Tell everyone in the weather center I said hi :)
John,
More tomorrow as we look at how this pattern evolves.
Gary
Posted by: John Moon III at January 30, 2006 6:51 PM
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I am a former KC Metro resident who now lives in SW MO and watches Doug nightly. Nice to see the two of you hooking up and presenting this to the AMS.
Gary,
Doug will be here in a few hours. We are both excited about giving our presentation tonight.
Gary
Posted by: Gary at January 30, 2006 9:47 PM
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Hi Gary. Just wanted to let you know that we had a thunderclap at my house in Blue Springs the evening that it rained (was it Friday?) Just one, though. Keep up the great work!
Tammy,
Thank you! I thought there could have been some thunder.
Gary
Posted by: Tammy at January 31, 2006 8:53 AM
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Do you have any guess's as to how hot the summer will be. If there's only going to be a chance of rain every 60 days it would be nice if the temps were at least moderate.
Lee,
As spring moves into May and June it could rain a lot. I will work on a summer forecast, but I have too many other things going on right now.
Gary
Posted by: Lee in KC at January 31, 2006 10:16 AM
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Gary & team:
I really do like reading your blog. You guys are SO right-on when it comes to forecasting! Everyone knows you are the most accurate... that's why we all keep coming back! :)
We are so happy you are now in the KC Star, it seems like your weather department is really expanding!
Now let's get some colder air in here... it's January for crying out loud!
Keep up the good work,
Sara
Sara,
Thank you!!!!!!!!! And, here comes the cold air. I am about to blog about it.
Gary
Posted by: sara at January 31, 2006 11:15 AM
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